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What’s Behind The Crash In Crude?

December 19, 2018

What’s Behind The Crash In Crude?

Basra oil terminal

Oil prices crashed to new one-year lows on Tuesday, dragged down by a deepening sense of global economic gloom as well as fears of oversupply in the oil market itself.

The reasons for the sudden meltdown were multiple. Rising crude oil inventories and expected increases in shale production weighed on oil prices, but the price crash was accentuated by the broader selloff in financials.

Genscape said that inventories are rising, which has raised fears of tepid demand amid soaring supply growth. “The Cushing number came in higher than anticipated … it’s definitely pointing to the concern that there’s more supply and demand is weakening,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, according to Reuters. “The market is still very nervous about that.”

Crude prices fell 4 percent on Monday and about 7 percent on Tuesday. WTI dropped below $47 per barrel and Brent fell to the $56 handle.

The EIA said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report that it expects U.S. shale production to top 8.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January, rising by a massive 134,000 bpd month-on-month. The Permian alone will see production rise by 73,000 bpd next month. By way of context, the gains in the Permian are bigger than even some of the large monthly declines that we have seen in Venezuela, for instance.

Still, with WTI dropping below $50 per barrel, shale drillers will start to face increasing financial strain. That could force a slowdown in the shale patch. “We’re probably going to see a supply slowdown in the U.S.,” Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank, told Bloomberg. “I do think that producers will react.”

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What Will Trigger The Next Oil Price Crash?

September 24, 2018

What Will Trigger The Next Oil Price Crash?

Rig

Are we nearing another financial crisis?

The supply-side story for oil prices is heavily skewed to the upside, with production losses from Iran and Venezuela causing a rapid tightening of the market. But the demand side of the equation is much more complex and harder to pin down.

Economists and investment banks are increasingly sounding the alarm on the global economy, raising red flags about the potential dangers ahead. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase recently suggested that a full-scale trade war would lead the steep corporate losses and a bear market for stocks.

The Trump administration just took its trade war with China to a new level, adding $200 billion worth of tariffs on imported Chinese goods. That was met with swift retaliation. Trump promised another $267 billion in tariffs are in the offing.

JPMorgan said that after scanning through more than 7,000 earnings transcripts, the topic of tariffs was widely discussed and feared. Around 35 percent of companies said tariffs were a threat to their business, JPMorgan said, as reported by Bloomberg.

But the risks don’t stop there. The Federal Reserve is steadily hiking interest rates, making borrowing more expensive around the world and upsetting a long line of currencies. The strength of the U.S. dollar has led to havoc in Argentina and Turkey, with slightly less but still significant currency turmoil in India, Indonesia, South Africa, Russia and an array of other emerging markets. Currency problems could morph into bigger debt crises, as governments struggle to repay debt, and companies and individuals get crushed by dollar-denominated liabilities.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Norway Desperately Needs Large Oil Discoveries

January 16, 2018

Norway Desperately Needs Large Oil Discoveries

Norway Rig

Thanks to costs cuts and large oil discoveries made before the oil price crash, Norway will be able to sustain its oil and gas production over the next five years. But reduced exploration drilling and lack of big discoveries in the past two years spell trouble for Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer after 2023, authorities fear.

Nearly two-thirds of the undiscovered resources are thought to be located in the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) directorate said last week in its review of the Norwegian Continental Shelf in 2017.

However, last year’s exploration campaign in Norway’s Arctic was a flop. Oil companies are not giving up on Barents Sea exploration, but firms and authorities alike have now lowered expectations about the possibility of a huge discovery in those areas.

“In the part of the Barents Sea that’s currently open, you’ve sort of tried the elephants — the big opportunities,” Bente Nyland, Director General of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, told Bloomberg in a recent interview. “You’re now down to the next generation in size,” Nyland noted.

The authority would be happy with any discovery of around 500 million barrels of oil, Nyland told Bloomberg.

Last year, the most promising exploration well Korpfjell—the first well drilled in the Norwegian section of a formerly disputed area between Norway and Russia, and the northernmost wildcat well drilled on the Norwegian shelf—was a disappointmentcompared to expectations that it could contain more than 250 million barrels of oil equivalent, or even 1 billion boe.

The disappointing Barents Sea campaign led to just 11 companies applying for production licenses in Norway’s 24th licensing round that offered 93 blocks in the Barents Sea and 9 blocks in the Norwegian Sea. Statoil, Aker BP, and Lundin were all applying, but the NPD said that “The applicant landscape could indicate that some parties are prioritizing exploration in mature areas this time around,” commenting on the applications.

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Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?…

December 2, 2014

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?….

There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months.  The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months.  Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher.  When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down.  It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets.  As you will read about below, energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market.  And a junk bond implosion is usually a signal that a major stock market crash is on the way.  So if you are looking for a “canary in the coal mine”, keep your eye on the performance of energy junk bonds.  If they begin to collapse, that is a sign that all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street.

It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the U.S. economy.  Thanks to this boom, the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet.

Yes, the U.S. now actually produces more oil than either Saudi Arabia or Russia.  This “revolution” has resulted in the creation of  millions of jobs since the last recession, and it has been one of the key factors that has kept the percentage of Americans that are employed fairly stable.

Unfortunately, the shale oil boom is coming to an abrupt end.  As a recent Vox article discussed, OPEC has essentially declared a price war on U.S. shale oil producers…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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