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US Troops Seen Blocking Russians From Syrian Oilfields In Series Of Dangerous Standoffs

January 23, 2020

US Troops Seen Blocking Russians From Syrian Oilfields In Series Of Dangerous Standoffs

Yet another dangerous incident has played out between American and Russian forces operating in Syria in what appears a series of standoffs near key oil installations since Saturday. “This is the third incident that occurred within a week,” one local reporter told VOA in an alarming report.

Image source: journalist Mohammed Hassan 

Days ago we reported on the first incident involving a US convoy blocking a Russian convoy on a highway near the town of Rmelan, after the Americans were apparently concerned the Russians were going to enter an oil field, which the US administration says it has “secured”. 

But now Voice of America reports three total incidents, with the most recent ones happening Tuesday and Wednesday in al-Hasakah province, as newly detailed by the opposition outlet Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 

Image source: journalist Mohammed Hassan 

All of the incidents involved US forces blocking Russian military vehicles and forcing them to turn around as they neared sensitive oil installations held by the US-backed Kurdish SDF and American special forces in Syria’s northeast. 

One eyewitness reporter on the ground described the following:

The incident on Tuesday is part of a series of similar incidents that happened in recent days between the two powers over their presence in Syria, local sources said. 

“This is the third incident that occurred within a week,” said Nishan Mohammad, a local reporter who said he witnessed another recent standoff between U.S. and Russian troops in northeast Syria.

“I was there last weekend when U.S. soldiers stopped Russian military vehicles and forced them to head back to their base,” he told VOA in a phone interview Tuesday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Could ISIS Take Control Over This Large Iraqi Oil Field?

January 18, 2020

Could ISIS Take Control Over This Large Iraqi Oil Field?

Iraq Oil Field

As always, it’s the fear of sanctions that provides the leverage Trump seeks in this cat-and-mouse game with Iran. And this time, the leverage is over Iraq, which would like to see both American and Iranian forces out of the country, for obvious reasons. 

There is nothing ISIS would love more than this. 

It would also devastate Iraq because the sanctions threatened would include blocking access to Iraq’s U.S.-based account where all the oil revenues are kept. That threat stands if Iraq moves to kick U.S. forces out of the country. 

That would mean victory for Iran (temporarily). Kicking out Iranian forces is not nearly as simple because the line between state and non-state actors is blurred, at best. 

A few weeks ago, a U.S. drawdown of military forces in Iraq was already expected, but that now seems unlikely because of the implications. 

The very military base that Iran attacked following the assassination of General Soleimani was already preparing for a drawdown. 

In addition to the threat of sanctions on oil money, a U.S. withdrawal would likely open the door for an ISIS return.  

What Iraqis Want

There is no consensus on this question, other than the fact that no one wants Iraq to be the proxy battleground between the United States and Iran. 

It’s a fair point, and Iraqis have had a very difficult time enjoying anything close to sovereignty since the fall of Saddam Hussein. 

While the Iraqi parliament has voted for U.S. troops to leave, they do not represent a unified voice. The Sunni elements of parliament did not participate in the vote. Neither did the Iraqi Kurds. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pentagon Confirms: Tanks & Additional US Forces To Deploy At Syrian Oil Fields

October 25, 2019

Pentagon Confirms: Tanks & Additional US Forces To Deploy At Syrian Oil Fields

Less than 30 minutes after President Trump tweeted early Friday, “Our soldiers have left and are leaving Syria for other places, then…COMING HOME!” — Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed prior reports that the Pentagon will indeed leave behind a small military presence to include “mechanized forces” at “the oil fields”.

As we reported yesterday per a WSJ report, the plan is likely to include some 500 troops stationed at the major oil fields east of the Euphrates,and sending dozens of battle tanksand other equipment to protect them. So perhaps merely some troops are actually coming home, while the tanks are moving in. 

To be expected, the justification Esper gave is focused on the perpetual “threat” of a reconstituted Islamic State. “We are now taking some actions… to strengthen our position at Deir al zor, to ensure that we can deny ISIS access to the oil fields,” Esper told reporters at a briefing. “We are reinforcing that position, it will include some mechanized forces,” Esper said. Like Osama bin Laden after 9/11, ISIS is the bogeyman that keeps on giving, conveniently used as an excuse for the Pentagon to never leave the region, apparently.

US mechanized unit, Army file image. 

Trump is clearly bending to the demands of his generals, who not only want to leave the Syrian Kurds a major bargaining chip to play in dealing with Assad, but continued control over Syria’s domestic energy resources can be used by Washington as potential leverage in future negotiations over Syria.

It’s also perhaps to deflect the growing mainstream media and Democratic criticism (along with some key Republican allies) that Trump has supposedly “handed the Middle East to Russia”. It further fits with Trump’s Thursday tweet, declaring:

“We will NEVER let a reconstituted ISIS have those fields!”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Old Fields Die Hard

March 12, 2018

Old Fields Die Hard

Oil is setting up for a turbulent year.

In an industry that is always full of contradictions, 2018 has been a particularly complicated and divisive year for the global oil markets–and it looks like it won’t be letting up any time soon.

For months, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been pushing for a dramatic decrease in production in the interest of bolstering prices at the pump. They’ve even managed to get major OPEC outsiders like Russia and the oil cartel to agree to production cuts. While the original deal is due to expire at the end of March, 2018, OPEC has just extended the production caps to the end of the year in an attempt to counterbalance the global glut of crude oil.

However, despite OPEC’s best efforts, some countries are not stemming the flow of crude, and some are even ramping up production and even opening new major oil fields. Nigeria, for example, is talking out of both sides of its mouth, promising compliance with OPEC in the same year that it has pushed its output to the highest level in more than two years and is set to start up production in a new large-scale oil field by the end of the year, their first in half a decade.

Now, another major issue has arisen. British Petroleum (BP), which has long expected their mature oil fields to naturally plateau and then decrease in production, has now announced that their legacy fields are increasing output, to the great surprise of experts in the field and BP executives alike. An astonished Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive officer, told an interviewer at the CERAWeek by IHS Markit energy conference in Houston that he, “cannot remember ever in my career having seen a negative decline rate.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

September 24, 2015

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

I am starting this post off with a news article because it explains why JODI has U.S. production numbers wrong for July.

No, U.S. Oil Production Probably Didn’t Rise in July

The Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) releases monthly oil supply-and-demand data for about 80 countries, which it gathers by directly surveying the countries. It is widely cited by analysts, especially for its figures on demand, imports and exports.

The latest JODI data released Sunday showed that U.S. crude-oil production rose from 9.3 million barrels a day in June to 9.5 million barrels in July.

But the EIA’s latest forecast called for July production to fall to 9.2 million barrels a day in July, continuing the trend of declining U.S. production as companies cut spending in the face of low prices.

For the charts below I have used JODI data for all Non-OPEC nations except those that do not report to JODI. For them I use the EIA data and carry forward the same data that the EIA reported, (April). For the USA, since the JODI data is obviously wrong for July, I simply carried forward the June data which also came directly from the EIA. And for OPEC I use the OPEC MOMR’s “secondary sources”. JODI also uses the MOMR for their data but uses the “direct communication” data instead of the secondary sources data.

The data below is through July 2015 and is in thousand barrels per day.

JODI World C+C

In July we remained at or near the world’s all time peak at 75,631,000 barrels per day, down just 15,000 bpd from June.

JODI Non-OPEC

JODI Non-OPEC stood at 44,100,000 bpd in July, down 567,000 bpd from the peak in December.

 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ISIS Burn Iraqi Oil Fields To Hold Off Iraqi Offensive

March 6, 2015

ISIS Burn Iraqi Oil Fields To Hold Off Iraqi Offensive

Thick black smoke billowing from oil wells northeast of the city of Tikrit is obstructing Shi’ite militiamen and Iraqi soldiers attempts to drive ISIS from the Sunni Muslim city after militants set them on fire. Reuters reports a witness and a military source said Islamic State fighters ignited the fire at the Ajil oil field to shield themselves from attack by Iraqi military helicopters. As we noted previously, the battle for Tikrit is key as it will determine whether and how fast the Iraqi forces can advance further north and attempt to win back Mosul, the biggest city under Islamic State rule.

IraqiOilFields

As Reuters reports,

Islamic State militants have set fire to oil wells northeast of the city of Tikrit to obstruct an assault by Shi’ite militiamen and Iraqi soldiers trying to drive them from the Sunni Muslim city and surrounding towns, a witness said.

The witness and a military source said Islamic State fighters ignited the fire at the Ajil oil field to shield themselves from attack by Iraqi military helicopters.

The offensive is the biggest Iraqi forces have yet mounted against IS, which has declared an Islamic caliphate on captured territory in Iraq and Syria and spread fear across the region by slaughtering Arab and Western hostages and killing or kidnapping members of religious minorities like Yazidis and Christians.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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