Okay, I admit that the premise of Norwegian television’s new political thriller series “Occupied” is far-fetched. But that premise is a window on just how addicted to fossil fuels we are.
In “Occupied” Norway’s Green Party wins parliamentary elections and makes good on its (not-altogether-fictional) promise to shut down oil and natural gas production in the country as a way of addressing climate change. This fictional Green Party simultaneously builds a thorium-fueled reactor to provide electric power. The Greens promise many more reactors as they embrace the electrification of transportation to reduce Norway’s need for liquid fuels.
Norway’s oil and gas customers–the countries of the European Union and Sweden–object to the loss of critical fossil fuel supplies. They conspire with Russia to force Norway to restart oil and gas production. At first this involves a smallish invasion by Russian soldiers and a takeover of offshore oil and gas platforms which are restored to production by Russian work crews.
When the series was conceived, Norwegian television thought the idea was too implausible. But with the Russian annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine, “Occupied” has touched a nerve in a newly anxious Scandanavian population who now see Russia as more of threat. (And, of course, there is the memory of Germany’s occupation of Norway during World War II that still arouses fear and loathing in the hearts of many Norwegians.)
Coincidences aside, it does not seem surprising that the world would react strongly to a major oil and gas exporting nation deciding it will end all oil and gas production. If we were to substitute Saudi Arabia for Norway–where a partial shutdown is plausible if radical Saudi elements were to come to power in a messy coup–I can confidently predict that the United States and other Western powers would use whatever force is necessary to turn the oil spigots back on full blast.
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