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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Sizing Up the Bubble

October 4, 2016

Sizing Up the Bubble “In the ruin of all collapsed booms is to be found the work of men who bought property at prices they knew perfectly well were fictitious, but who were willing to pay such prices simply because they knew that some still greater fool could be depended on to take the property […]

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TSX falls 373 points as commodities sell off again

September 29, 2015

TSX falls 373 points as commodities sell off again Canadian dollar loses almost half a cent to close at 74.66 cents US. Canada’s benchmark stock index lost almost 2.8 per cent on another bleak Monday for commodities like oil, gold and copper. The S&P/TSX Composite Index lost 373 points to close at 13,004. That’s the lowest level for Canada’s […]

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It’s easy to deny a bubble but impossible to deny its implosion.

August 25, 2015

It’s easy to deny a bubble but impossible to deny its implosion. We’re having the kind of day when the New York Stock Exchange felt compelled toannounce very encouragingly before markets opened that it would halt trading for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 drops 7% to 1,833 before 3:25 p.m. Once trading restarts and the index plunges 13% […]

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How to Prepare for a Cyber Attack

July 12, 2015

How to Prepare for a Cyber Attack There is a lot of debate on whether Wednesday’s computer issues that shut down the New York Stock Exchange, the Wall Street Journal, and United Airlines were just a very strange coincidence (very strange) or a deliberate cyber attack. This isn’t the first possible cyber attack on the United […]

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What In The World Just Happened To The New York Stock Exchange?

July 9, 2015

What In The World Just Happened To The New York Stock Exchange? Do you believe that the New York Stock Exchange shut down because of a “technical glitch” on Wednesday?  At 11:32 AM on Wednesday morning, trading on the New York Stock Exchange was halted due to “internal technical issues”, and it did not resume […]

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How Much More Extreme Can Markets Get?

May 31, 2015

How Much More Extreme Can Markets Get? These charts help us understand that a top is not just price, but a reversal in extremes of margin debt, valuation and sentiment. In blow-off tops, extremes of valuation, complacency and margin debt can always shoot beyond previous extremes to new extremes. This is why guessing when the blow-off […]

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Some Folks At The Fed Are Lost——No Juice To The Macros, Part 1

March 25, 2015

Some Folks At The Fed Are Lost——No Juice To The Macros, Part 1 Yesterday we demonstrated that stock market valuations are not merely “on the high side” as Janet Yellen averred last week. Instead, they are positively in the nose-bleed section of history. You don’t get the Russell 2000 trading at 90X honest-to-goodness GAAP earnings […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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