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Methane emissions jumped by record amount in 2021, NOAA says

Carbon dioxide emissions also rose more than 2 parts per million for the 10th consecutive year

Pump jacks operate while others stand idle in the Belridge oil field near McKittrick, Calif., on Nov. 3, 2021. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Global methane emissions soared by a record amount in 2021, eclipsing the record set the year before, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, demonstrating the huge challenge facing policymakers who have pledged to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Methane, the second biggest contributor to human-caused global warming after carbon dioxide, is emitted in part by oil and natural gas production, particularly shale gas drilling. But it’s also emitted by livestock farming and landfills, as well as wetlands whose waterlogged soils, rich in microbes, are ideal for naturally producing methane.

Since last year, about 100 countries have signed on to a Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut emissions 30 percent by the end of the decade. Some major emitters, such as Russia and China, still have not.

“Our data show that global emissions continue to move in the wrong direction at a rapid pace,” Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, said in a statement. “The evidence is consistent, alarming, and undeniable.”

Recently, climate experts and diplomats have put extra emphasis on controlling methane emissions because it is relatively easy to reduce the emissions by stopping methane escaping from oil and gas wells and leaking from pipelines. Major multinational oil and gas companies have emitted methane in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. And Russia ranks among the biggest emitters with aging pipelines stretching for roughly 2,500 miles from the remote Yamal Peninsula in Russia to consumers in Europe.

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NOAA Warns US Megadrought Will Persist; May Impact Food Supply Chains

NOAA Warns US Megadrought Will Persist; May Impact Food Supply Chains

Abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions are expected to persist across 60% of the continental U.S. as spring in the Northern Hemisphere begins. Forecasters expect little to no rain for certain parts of the western U.S. through June.

From April to June, above-average temperatures are expected from Southwest to the East Coast and north through the Midwest, according to a new outlook published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s map shows a greater than 50% chance of drought persistence for nearly 60% of the continental U.S.

“Severe to exceptional drought has persisted in some areas of the West since the summer of 2020, and drought has expanded to the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

 “With nearly 60% of the continental U.S. experiencing minor to exceptional drought conditions, this is the largest drought coverage we’ve seen in the U.S. since 2013,” Gottschalck said. 

The outlook also noted more than 50% of the U.S. will experience above-average temperatures this spring, with the greatest chances in the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, at least 90% of nine western states are plagued with dry conditions, including all of California, Nevada, and Utah, and 99% of New Mexico.

NOAA’s latest forecast doesn’t bode well for the western U.S. farm industry as it could very well suggest the multiyear mega-drought (one of the worst in 1,200 years) could begin to impact the U.S. food supply and comes at a very inopportune time as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has choked the world of natural resources.

The U.S. and world are careening towards a food crisis. Perhaps it’s time to plant a garden and become independent as national and global food supply chains may begin to breakdown.

 

Summer 2021 Hotter Than ‘Dust Bowl’ Of The 1930s, NOAA Says

Summer 2021 Hotter Than ‘Dust Bowl’ Of The 1930s, NOAA Says

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed in a new report that the average temperature during this summer for the contiguous U.S. was hotter than the Dust Bowl in the 1930s.

The meteorological summer between June 1 to Sept. 1 averaged 74F for the U.S., or 2.6 degrees warmer than the long-term average. NOAA said, “this technically exceeds the record heat of the 1936 Dust Bowl Summer, but the difference is extremely small (less than 0.01 of a degree F).” 

Readers should be familiar with our weather notes this summer, pointing out extreme temperatures and drought across the country’s western half.

NOAA said 18.4% of the contiguous U.S. experienced records, with five states, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Utah, setting new records for the warmest meteorological summers of all time. Another 16 states had a top-five warmest summer on record.

The most notable heat wave of the summer was in the Pacific Northwest of the country, which sparked wildfires and stressed out energy grids across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Northern California. More than 35 metro areas in the western U.S. tied or registered new records during multiday heat waves. In some of these places, temperatures surpassed 120F.

Tying a couple of months of heat waves to global warming requires a lot of analysis. Although climate alarmists, such as Greta Thunberg, had no problem tweeting mainstream media reports about how the world was going to hell and condemning fossil fuels.

We noted last week cooler weather trends are ahead after Sept. 17-19.

California’s Next Calamity: Storms Compounded By High Tides

California’s Next Calamity: Storms Compounded By High Tides

The wildfires that have taken their toll on California could be just the beginning of the state’s calamities. Now, the high tides of winter are coming and if those tides are worsened by an incoming storm, they could devastate entire cities on the coasts.

On December 10, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a report stating there is an 80 percent chance of an El Niño event this winter. Such events are associated with wetter and more intense winter storms. However, NOAA does caution that its data are from September through November and the intensity of the El Niño will not be known for quite some time still.

Tides are determined by the sun and moon’s gravitational pull on the oceans. This warning from NOAA comes as heavy storms bear down on California’s Pacific Northwest.   In central and northern California on Monday,  waves were as high as 30 feet, with 40- to 50-foot breaks. Coastal flooding and erosion were reported. And sn even-more-powerful storm smacked the region yesterday, prompting flood watches, high-wind alerts, and winter storm warnings across nine states.

According to ABC News, holiday travelers along I-5, which runs north to south through Washington, Oregon, and California, can expect to be drenched with heavy rains. Although that storm has mostly passed and is headed to the Rocky Mountains, California is not out of the woods just yet. High surf warnings were issued by the National Weather Service from Point Conception, California, north of the Los Angeles  Basin, to the coast of southwestern Washington, highlighting an especially heightened threat to life and property within the surf zone, reported Weather.com. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

El Nino Threatens North America In New Weather Report – “Big East Coast Systems Capable Of Snow”

El Nino conditions are quickly developing across the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean, with meteorologist now indicating a high chance of development by December.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country are expected, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s official winter weather forecast released Thursday.

Current models show El Nino has a 70 to 75% probability of forming. “We expect El Nino to be in late fall to early winter,” Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the Southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

El Nino is a massive ocean-atmosphere climate event linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific waters.

The swings between warmer and cooler waters in the tropical Pacific are the primary factors for either El Nino (warmer seawater) or La Nina (cooler seawater), which government meteorologist watch closely in determining the North American winter weather forecast.

Here is the 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook report (Dec. through Feb): 

Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across much of the northern and western U.S., with higher probabilities of warmer temperatures in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, Halpert said in a statement.

The forecast does not show any region in the US below-average temperatures for the season. Much of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley regions will remain within average ranges.

Halpert said wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier and Mid-Atlantic, with the highest odds for above-average precipitation in northern Flordia and south Georgia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NOAA Issues Geomagnetic Storm Warning: “A Crack Opened In Earth’s Magnetic Field & Plasma Started Pouring In”

According to NOAA Space Weather forecasters, a powerful G3-class geomagnetic storm is in progress on August 26th as Earth passes through the wake of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that arrived with little notice approximately 24 hours ago. Strong magnetic fields in the CME’s wake have cracked into Earth’s magnetosphere, allowing solar wind to enter. So far auroras have been sighted in Scandinavia, Canada, and northern-tier US states such as Michigan and New York.

“The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (26 Aug) due to continued influence from the 20 Aug CME. Quiet to active conditions, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) storm conditions, are likely on day two (27 Aug) with quiet to unsettled levels likely on day three (28 Aug) as CME effects gradually wane,” said the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Steven Herman, the White House bureau chief of Voice of America (VOA News), reported the strong geomagnetic storm on earlier Sunday morning. He shared a note listing the potential impacts of the storm, which included power systems, spacecraft, satellite communication networks, and even radio disruptions.


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The K-index, a chart that measures the earth’s magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm, hit the 4 threshold was reached at 21:43 UTC on August 25, followed by K-index of 5 (G1 Minor) at 01:54 UTC on August 26, K-index of 6 (G2 Moderate) at 02:57 and K-index of 7 (G3 Strong) at 05:59 and 07:38 UTC.

Late-September heat wave leaves climate experts stunned

Late-September heat wave leaves climate experts stunned

“Never been a heat wave of this duration and magnitude this late in the season,” reports NOAA

Places where temperatures are projected to be within one degree of a record high Wednesday. CREDIT: National Weather Service via WashPost/WeatherBell.com.
PLACES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF A RECORD HIGH WEDNESDAY. CREDIT: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA WASHPOST/WEATHERBELL.COM.

Century-old records across the Midwest and East Coast are being shattered by a monster late-September heat wave — the kind of extreme weather we can expect to get much worse thanks to President Donald Trump’s policies to undermine domestic and global climate action.

“There has never been a heat wave of this duration and magnitude this late in the season in Chicago,” the National Weather Service reported Tuesday evening.

“Summer in some regions of the world will become one long heatwave even if global average temperatures rise only 2°C [3.6ºF] above pre-industrial levels,” finds a study published Monday in Nature Scientific Reports. The Paris climate agreement, which Trump has decided to pull out of, seeks to limit global warming to “well below” 3.6ºF.

On Wednesday, another study showed the connection between deadly heat waves and climate change. Scientists with World Weather Attribution (WWA) released an analysis of Europe’s blistering summer heat, which included the heat wave so deadly it was nicknamed “Lucifer.” The researchers found, “climate change increased the chances of seeing a summer as hot as 2017 by at least a factor of 10 and a heat wave like Lucifer by at least a factor of four since 1900″ (emphasis in original).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Worst Hurricane Season In A Decade Threatens Gulf Coast Production

Worst Hurricane Season In A Decade Threatens Gulf Coast Production

GoM rig

2017 could be an “above-normal” year for large hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a potential problem for Gulf Coast oil drillers and refiners.

NOAA puts the odds of an “above-normal” season for hurricanes at 45 percent, while the chances of a normal and below-normal season are at 35 and 20 percent, respectively. In fact, they said that there is a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms, which are storms that have 39 mile-per-hour winds or higher. About 5 to 9 of those could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher); 2 to 4 of which could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher). The average season (which runs from June through November) tends to have just 12 named storms, so the potential for 17 named storms puts the 2017 hurricane season in more treacherous territory.

“We’re expecting a lot of storms this season,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told reporters. “Whether it’s above normal or near normal, that’s a lot of hurricanes.”

Part of the reason for the expected uptick in hurricane activity is because the El Nino phenomenon is not expected to show up. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricanes. Also, sea-surface temperatures are above-average, which contributes to stronger storms.

There has been a decade-long lull in major hurricanes that have struck the U.S., but there is a growing probability that that changes this year.

That should be cause for concern for the oil and gas industry, much of which is located along the Gulf Coast. They have been spared the worst that Mother Nature has to offer for quite some time. Related: Oil Prices Fall As U.S. Rig Count Rises For 20th Straight Week

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Our Future Possible?

IS OUR FUTURE POSSIBLE?

SUMMARY: “Reality 101” with Nate Hagens, our minds, our world, the fossil trap. Scientists Alexander “Sandy” MacDonald of NOAA and Chris Clack of CIRES: yes we can power America with solar and wind power.

This week on Radio Ecoshock we’ll see how hard it is, and how possible it is, to get out of the matrix. Resilience expert Dr. Nate Hagens talks about his college course “Reality 101”.

Then we visit with two top American scientists whose recent study was published by the government-funded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A detailed study of sun and wind says yes we can replace fossil and nuclear power with renewable energy, and it won’t cost any more than what we are doing now.

Thanks for joining us this week as we explore where we really are, and what we could do about it.

Download or listen to this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi(14 MB)

Or listen on Soundcloud right now!

NATE HAGENS: REALITY 101

I don’t know about you, but I’m often stuck on Bob Dylan’s words: “something is happening here, but you don’t know what it is”. Wouldn’t it be great if we could take a course to understand reality?

The course exists. Dr. Nathan J. Hagens teaches “Reality 101 – A Survey of the Human Predicament” to graduate students at the University of Minnesota. Nate Hagens is a familiar name to anyone who tracks energy and resilience. Nate was a successful Wall Street trader. He left all that in 2003 to probe deeper. Nate is on the Board of Directors of the Post Carbon Institute, a Director of the Bottleneck Foundation, and he teaches. He’s working on a book that he doesn’t want to talk about yet. Hagens lives on a farm in Wisconsin with a collection of animals.

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2015: record hot or not?

2015: record hot or not?

Figure 1 Surface thermometer (GISS LOTI and HadCrut4) and satellite (UAH and RSS) records compared. It is plain to see that surface thermometers set a new record in 2015 while the satellites did not.

In this post I am looking at two of the surface thermometer records (GISS LOTI and HadCrut4) and the only two versions of the satellite record (UAH and RSS). The surface thermometer models are based to a large extent on the same surface thermometer data base where air temperature is measured over land and sea surface temperature (SST) is measured over the oceans. The results are area weighted with the SSTs contributing about 70% of the total. The satellite models are based on the exact same satellite recordings. We will see that there is no material difference between GISS LOTI and HadCrut4 and no material difference between UAH and RSS.

The satellite record begins in 1980 and it is only the post-1980 parts of the records that are considered here. The records use different base periods from which temperature anomalies are calculated and this hinders direct comparisons. This is overcome by rebasing each series to 1980-1984 = 0˚C. The online data sources and how to find them are detailed in the appendix.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“It’s Hot Out There” – Here’s Why In One Visualization

“It’s Hot Out There” – Here’s Why In One Visualization

It’s not just warm, but very warm,” exclaims one east coast ski resort owner, adding “I can’t remember it ever being like this here.” But why? As WSJ reports, two weather occurrences – the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño – are combining to shake up temperatures from coast to coast in the U.S., bringing springlike conditions to the Northeast for much of this month and leaving parts of the West colder and wetter than usual.
Typically this time of year, Arctic Oscillation would bring cold air to the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures down. But so far this year, the oscillation has stayed much farther north, allowing warm air from the south to fill the void, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate prediction center.

The other factor is El Niño, a periodic climate cycle in which sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific become warmer than usual. The effects from changes in Arctic Oscillations generally last only a few weeks, but the balmy weather in the Northeast could continue because of the El Niño effect, experts say.

El Niños push the subtropical and polar jet streams, which help define weather around the world, to the north. The result is that the southern U.S. gets rain that normally falls in Central and South America, while the Northeast and Midwest get a reprieve from winter as the polar jet stream is pushed up into Canada.

“If people are nervous, they should be nervous.”

 The current El Niño is on track to rank among the top three strongest since record-keeping began in 1950, according to federal climatologists.

“The El Niño impact is not dominating yet,” said Bill Patzert, a climate scientist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. “It’s like the tale of two climates here.

And since every failure of central planning to achieve its seasonally-adjustedeconomic targets must be blamed on something, even something as ridiculous as the weather, regardless if it is “too cold” like in the past two years, or “too hot”, now we know why Q4 GDP will be crap!

NOAA: July Was Hottest Month Ever Worldwide

NOAA: July Was Hottest Month Ever Worldwide

July was a scorcher, globally speaking. Last month was the warmest on record worldwide with many countries and the world’s oceans experiencing intense heat waves, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said today in a report.

The report found that “the July average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.46°F above the 20th century average.” And since July is “climatologically the warmest month for the year, this was also the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880–2015 record, at 61.86°F, surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.14°F.” It comes as no surprise that Arctic sea ice hasn’t fared well with all this warmth. The average Arctic sea ice extent was the eighth smallest since records began in 1979.

noaachart1
Click on chart for larger view. Graphic credit: NOAA

 

nonachart2
Click on chart for larger view. Graphic credit: NOAA

The report also found that it’s been the warmest January to July period on record, all but ensuring that 2015 will be the hottest year on record. “I would say [we’re] 99 percent certain that it’s going to be the warmest year on record,” Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with ERT, Inc., at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said during a press teleconference on Thursday.

Evidence of this record heat is everywhere you look. Thirteen of the last 15 years have been the warmest years on record. According to a Climate Central analysis, “the odds of that happening randomly without the boost of global warming was 1 in 27 million.” At EcoWatch we have covered extensively the heat waves hitting the globe in recent months. India and Pakistan both had heat waves that killed thousands of people and even melted the roads. Extreme weather has scorched the Middle East, Asia, Europe and the U.S. Earlier this month, the heat index in Iran hit 164°F, among the hottest temperatures ever endured by mankind.

 

July Was Warmest Month On Record NOAA Reports, Lists All “Signifiicant Climate Anomalies And Events”

July Was Warmest Month On Record NOAA Reports, Lists All “Signifiicant Climate Anomalies And Events”

While some, perhaps not California farmers, will disagree with NOAA’s assessment of the world’s atmospheric conditions, earlier today the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that July was the warmest month ever recorded for the globe and was also the record warmest for global oceans, putting a full stop to a year that has been characterized by numerous perplexing atmospheric outliers around the globe but perhaps none other more so than NOAA’s earlier assessment that the winter of 2015 was also the warmest on record despite the much discussed US winter, where for the second year in a row the economic slowdown was blamed on a colder than usual winter. Go figure: perhaps here too we need double seasonal adjustments.

Among some of the highlights noted by NOAA:

  • The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2015 was the highest for July in the 136-year period of record, at 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08°C (0.14°F). As July is climatologically the warmest month of the year globally, this monthly global temperature of 16.61°C (61.86°F) was also the highest among all 1627 months in the record that began in January 1880. The July temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.65°C (1.17°F) per century.
  • The July globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.73°F (0.96°C) above the 20th century average. This was the sixth highest for July in the 1880–2015 record.
  • The July globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.35°F (0.75°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest temperature for any month in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in July 2014 by 0.13°F (0.07°C). The global value was driven by record warmth across large expanses of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

 

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1930s Dust Bowl Drought – and Current California Drought – Caused By Warm Ocean Anomalies

1930s Dust Bowl Drought – and Current California Drought – Caused By Warm Ocean Anomalies

A scientific paper published last month in the journal Climate Dynamics by a scientist from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center and three universities found that the 1930s drought was exacerbated by an anomalous warm spots in the ocean:

Unusually hot summer conditions occurred during the 1930s over the central United States and undoubtedly contributed to the severity of the Dust Bowl drought. We investigate local and large-scale conditions in association with the extraordinary heat and drought events, making use of novel datasets of observed climate extremes and climate reanalysis covering the past century. We show that the unprecedented summer heat during the Dust Bowl years was likely exacerbated by land-surface feedbacks associated with springtime precipitation deficits. The reanalysis results indicate that these deficits were associated with the coincidence of anomalously warm North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific surface waters and a shift in atmospheric pressure patterns leading to reduced flow of moist air into the central US. Thus, the combination of springtime ocean temperatures and atmospheric flow anomalies, leading to reduced precipitation, also holds potential for enhanced predictability of summer heat events. The results suggest that hot drought, more severe than experienced during the most recent 2011 and 2012 heat waves, is to be expected when ocean temperature anomalies like those observed in the 1930s occur in a world that has seen significant mean warming.

Similarly, a warm “blob” of ocean water is currently floating off the West coast of the U.S. And – as reported by the Washington PostNBC News, and CBS – scientists say that the warm anomaly may be causing the California drought.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Was 2014 the hottest year after all?

Was 2014 the hottest year after all?

World media rushed to report that “2014 was the warmest year on record”, but it seems no one bothered to look at the fine print and the fact scientists can’t be sure the claim is true, writes Samantha Walker.

Was 2014 really the hottest year on record? The headlines across the world’s media last month – including these pieces from the BBCCNNWall Street JournalThe Guardian and The Age certainly claimed that it was.

The media chorus last month followed a joint announcement by two US scientific organisations: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and NOAA’s National Climatic Data Centre. On January 16, they released a categorical statement to the press that “2014 was the warmest year in modern record”.

Yet 10 days later, the UK’s Met Office (its national weather service) stated that while 2014 was indeed very warm, it wasn’t actually the single hottest on record. So the first question is – was 2014 the hottest year or not?

A quick bit of critical analysis explains where the confusion lies.

Director of GISS, Gavin Schmidt, and his colleagues published a paper moderately asserting that 2014 was hotter than the second hottest year – 2010 – by just 0.02°C. That number is five times less than the 0.1°C of uncertainty in their measurements. They stated that 2014, 2010 and 2005 were “in a statistical tie because of several sources of uncertainty, the largest source being incomplete spatial coverage of the data”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
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