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Shale Pioneer Hamm: Output Growth Could Fall By 50%

Shale Pioneer Hamm: Output Growth Could Fall By 50%

Harold Hamm

U.S. shale production growth could slow by as much as half this year, according to one industry titan.

Continental Resources’ Harold Hamm said that shale growth could decline by as much as 50 percent this year compared to 2018, although he added that it was just a “wild guess.” Hamm said that a lot of shale E&Ps are trying to keep spending within cash flow. This newfound mantra of capital discipline has been imposed on the shale industry after a decade or so of a debt-fueled drilling frenzy.

“Producers have become more disciplined in their approach to capex,” Hamm said at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston this week. “Several years back growth was a huge consideration. That consideration has been much less. The peak consideration now has been — are you overspending cash flow. Are you living within cash flow?”

The signs of a shale slowdown have been mounting. The rig count fell sharply in recent weeks. Production growth has already begun to slow. Schlumberger, the world’s largest oilfield services company, has warned that it is already seeing shale companies pulling back on drilling activity.

In the latest Drilling Productivity Report, the EIA forecasts that U.S. shale production will grow by 62,000 bpd in February compared to a month earlier. That is the slowest rate of growth in nearly a year, and down from the prior monthly production increases that have consistently exceeded 100,000 bpd. 

Argus, using Barclays data, points out that North American onshore might only tick up by about 9 percent this year, down from the 18 percent jump in 2018. That could quickly translate into slower output growth. “Production is a direct response of capex today with this industry,” Hamm said at the Argus summit.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Oil Outlook Slammed By Lower Prices

U.S. Oil Outlook Slammed By Lower Prices

Drilling operation

The recent slide in oil prices may finally start impacting U.S. oil production forecasts.

The plunge in oil prices in November and December spread gloom around the industry. Comments from anonymous oil executives in a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from earlier this month clearly depicted the creeping pessimism from oil country. “I expect the dramatic, unexpected and significant drop in oil prices will significantly decrease revenue for the first half of 2019. I intend to mitigate this by stopping all drilling and deferring any new projects,” one oil executive told the Dallas Fed.

Another worried about lack of financing for drilling. “It feels like the capital markets (equity and debt) are backing up fairly hard, which will have a noted impact on capital spending if sustained. Coupled with the fall in oil prices in the past six weeks, this could cause 2019 plans to get pared back,” the executive said.

But the downturn in oil prices, and even the gloomier outlook from oil executives themselves, hadn’t really fed through to oil production forecasts. The projections for U.S. shale still included heady growth figures, despite the plunge in prices.

That is, until now.

“As a result of the slide in oil prices over the past three months, operators have already started to guide down activity for 2019 compared to their initial plans to ramp up activity,” Rystad Energy wrote in a new commentary. “Consequentially, we have lowered our expectations for oil production growth by about 500,000 bpd for 2020 and 2021, implying less need for takeaway capacity.”

Rystad says slower production growth might put a lot less urgency on the closely watched midstream bottlenecks. “This raises the question as to which (if any) of the pipelines projects in the Permian slated for development will move forward if there is less oil to fill them,” Rystad stated.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Markets Could See Deficit In 2019

Oil Markets Could See Deficit In 2019

valve Iraq

The oil supply surplus is “starting to reverse,” according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The investment bank noted that oil prices had collapsed in late 2018 not only because of an oversupply problem, but also because of other “non-fundamental factors,” including the selloff of long positions by hedge funds and other market managers, as well as by fear and uncertainty in broader financial markets. Still, the bottom line was that the oil market saw a glut once again emerge in the fourth quarter.

However, “now the 1.3mn b/d surplus in 4Q18 is starting to reverse,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts wrote in a January 10 note. In fact, the bank says that the OPEC+ cuts could translate into a “slight deficit” for 2019. “With investor positioning reflecting a bearish set-up, Brent prices have already bounced back above $60/bbl, and we retain our $70/bbl average forecast for 2019,” BofAML wrote.

Oil price forecasts vary quite a bit, but a dozen or so investment banks largely agree that the selloff in late December, which pushed Brent down to $50 per barrel, had gone too far. BofAML is betting that Brent rises back to $70 per barrel.

However, the investment bank issued a rather significant caveat. This assessment is based on the assumption that the global economy does not take a turn for the worse. BofAML analysts said that Brent could plunge as low as $35 per barrel if global GDP growth slows from 3.5 percent to 2 percent.

At this point, it is anybody’s guess if the global economy slows by that much, but there is a growing number of indicators that at least suggests such a deceleration is possible. The recent data from China showing a shocking slowdown in both imports and exports is discouraging.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Another Crucial Canadian Pipeline Runs Into Trouble

Another Crucial Canadian Pipeline Runs Into Trouble

LNG canada

Late last year, Royal Dutch Shell gave the greenlight to a massive LNG export terminal on Canada’s Pacific Coast, one of the largest investments in LNG in years. But like other fossil fuel projects in Canada, the plans have run into some trouble.

Shell’s LNG Canada project hinges on a crucial pipeline that will connect gas fields along the border of British Columbia and Alberta to the Pacific coast at Kitimat. The Coastal GasLink pipeline is to be constructed by TransCanada (or, rather TC Energy, as the company now wants to be known).

The Coastal GasLink pipeline was supposed to mark a departure from previous long distance pipelines in Canada – a project that would, from the start, adequately consult with First Nations. Prior pipeline projects – Enbridge’s Northern Gateway and Line 3; TransCanada’s Energy East; as well as Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Expansion – ran into stiff resistance from various First Nations.

TransCanada hoped that Coastal GasLink would be different. But, it too is now meeting resistance. Members of the Wet’suwet’en nation threw up makeshift barricades to stop construction on their land in recent weeks. On January 7, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police broke through those barricades and arrested at least 14 people. RCMP said it was enforcing a court order, but the clash made national and international headlines.

The situation is complex because the Wet’suwet’en nation never signed a treaty with Canada, so their territory is neither ceded nor even formally acknowledged by Canada. “What I see is a long history of the Canadian government doing its best to avoid acknowledging the existence of other systems of government,” Gordon Christie, a scholar of indigenous law at the University of British Columbia, told The Guardian.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Darkening Outlook For Global Economy Threatens Crude

Darkening Outlook For Global Economy Threatens Crude

Hong Kong Stock Exchange

“The outlook for the global economy in 2019 has darkened.”

That conclusion came from a new report from the World Bank, citing a variety of data, including softening international trade and investment, ongoing trade tensions, and financial turmoil in emerging markets over the past year. “Storm clouds are brewing for the global economy,” the World Bank warned.

As a result, economic growth in emerging markets could “remain flat” this year, while overall growth could be “weaker than anticipated.”

One of the key backdrops to this assessment is the rate tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve. “Advanced-economy central banks will continue to remove the accommodative policies that supported the protracted recovery from the global financial crisis ten years ago,” the World Bank report said. After several rate hikes in 2018, the Fed had suggested that two more were on the way in 2019, although the central bank’s chairman Jerome Powell recently softened that tone.

Higher interest rates and a corresponding strengthening of the dollar puts enormous pressure on indebted countries, companies and consumers in emerging markets. Such countries are vulnerable to sudden capital outflows, which could leave them crushed under the weight of dollar-denominated debt. Worse, government debt in low-income countries has surged over the last four years, from 30 percent of GDP to 50 percent of GDP, according to the World Bank. Related: Energy Experts Are Watching This Hotspot In 2019

Growth contracted in Japan, Italy and Germany in the third quarter of last year, and financial turmoil rocked global equities in the final few weeks of 2018.

“At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead,” said World Bank Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Evidence Mounts For Shale Slowdown

Evidence Mounts For Shale Slowdown

frack crew

There is a growing pile of evidence pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. shale industry, as low prices take their toll.

The rate of hydraulic fracturing began to decline in the last four months of 2018, a sign that U.S. shale activity began to slow even before the plunge in oil prices. According to Rystad Energy, the average number of fracking jobs declined to 44 per day in November 2018, down from an average of between 48 and 50 for the five-month period between April and August 2018.

“After reaching a peak in May/June, fracking activity in the Permian Basin has gradually decelerated throughout the second half of 2018,” Rystad Energy senior analyst Lai Lou said in a statement.

“Looking at preliminary data for November, we see evidence that seasonal activity deceleration has likely started in all major plays except Eagle Ford,” Lou added. “There has been a considerable slowdown in Bakken and Niobrara in November, our analysis shows.” Rystad said that much of the slowdown can be attributed to smaller companies.

The drilling data echoes that of the Dallas Fed, which reported last week that drilling activity began to slow in the Permian in the fourth quarter. Whether measuring by production, employment, business activity, equipment usage rates – a wide variety of data from the shale industry points to an unfolding slowdown.

Moreover, independent data also suggests that a lot of shale drillers are not profitable with oil prices below $50 per barrel. Breakeven prices on the very best wells can run in the $30s or $40s per barrel, but industry-wide all-in costs translate into much higher breakeven thresholds. The rig count has also already plateaued after growing sharply in the first half of 2018.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

New Data Suggests Shocking Shale Slowdown

New Data Suggests Shocking Shale Slowdown

Shale rig

U.S. shale executives often boast of low breakeven prices, reassuring investors of their ability to operate at a high level even when oil prices fall. But new data suggests that the industry slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter of 2018 in response to the plunge in oil prices.

A survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas finds that shale activity slammed on the brakes in the fourth quarter. “The business activity index—the survey’s broadest measure of conditions facing Eleventh District energy firms—remained positive, but barely so, plunging from 43.3 in the third quarter to 2.3 in the fourth,” the Dallas Fed reported on January 3.

The 2.3 reading is only slightly positive – zero would mean that business activity from Texas energy firms was flat compared to the prior quarter. A negative reading would mean a contraction in activity.

The deceleration was true for multiple segments within oil and gas. For instance, the oil production index fell from 34.8 in the third quarter to 29.1 in the fourth. The natural gas production index to 24.8 in the fourth quarter, down from 35.5 in the prior quarter.

But even as production held up, drilling activity indicated a sharper slowdown was underway. The index for utilization of equipment by oilfield services firms dropped sharply in the fourth quarter, down from 43 points in the third quarter to just 1.6 in the fourth – falling to the point where there was almost no growth at all quarter-on-quarter.

Meanwhile, employment has also taken a hit. The employment index fell from 31.7 to 17.5, suggesting a “moderating in both employment and work hours growth in the fourth quarter,” the Dallas Fed wrote. Labor conditions in oilfield services were particularly hit hard.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mnuchin’s Bizarre Statement Rattles Markets

Mnuchin’s Bizarre Statement Rattles Markets

Mnuchin

If he thought it would inspire confidence in the markets, his bizarre announcement did just the opposite.

Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin issued a statement saying that he “conducted a series of calls today with the CEOS of the nations six largest banks,” which included Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, and the bank executives “confirmed that they have ample liquidity available” for consumer and business lending operations. To which, the collective response from the whole world seemed to be: “Wait, who said anything about not having ample liquidity?”

Mnuchin also said that the major banks “have not experienced any clearance or margin issues and that the markets continue to function properly.” Again, since few expected otherwise, the “clarification” from Mnuchin only seemed to sow more fear and confusion.

Mnuchin was scheduled to hold another call with the President’s Working Group on financial markets – commonly referred to as the “Plunge Protection Team” – which includes the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. He said that the FDIC and the Comptroller of the Currency might participate as well. “These key regulators will discuss coordination efforts to assure normal market operations,” Mnuchin’s statement said.

The curious statement intended to reassure the markets prompted the opposite response. “This is the type of announcement that raises the question of whether Treasury sees problems that the rest of the market is missing,” Cowen & Co. analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in a note to clients. “Not only did he consult with the biggest banks, but he is talking to all of the financial regulators on Christmas Eve. We do not see this type of announcement as constructive.” Related: Chinese Refiners Aren’t Buying U.S. Crude

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Interest Rate Hike Hits Oil Hard

Interest Rate Hike Hits Oil Hard

Federal Bank

Oil prices have been slammed over the past week, dragged down by a variety of forces, including soaring U.S. shale production, higher-than-expected output from Russia, and worries about global demand. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to pile on.

The central bank hiked interest rates by a quarter-point yet again, the fourth time this year. That was largely expected. But the details that market watchers were more concerned with were the Fed’s intentions for 2019. Fed chairman Jerome Powell, in the face of withering pressure from the White House, signaled his intention to hike rates two more times in 2019. To be sure, that was down from a previous plan of three rate increases, but it wasn’t exactly the pullback that President Trump had wanted. Powell dismissed questions about political pressure from the President, saying that “nothing will cause us to deviate from” the job at hand.

“Inflation has still remained just a touch below two percent. So I do think that gives the committee the ability to be patient in moving forward.” Powell told reporters. He noted that there are some warning signs in the global economy, but that U.S. “economic activity has been rising at a strong rate,” which made the bank comfortable with its decision to continue with its monetary tightening policy.

The central bank made some slight tweaks to its forward-looking language, suggesting that it may ease up on interest rate hikes if the economy deteriorates.

Still, stocks plunged on the news, as did crude oil. As of Thursday, WTI was down close to $46 per barrel and Brent was hovering at about $55 per barrel, the lowest levels in 15 months. “[M]any market participants clearly still believe the Fed’s view is overly optimistic, as US stock markets came under pressure amid fears of excessive tightening of monetary policy and bond yields fell,” Commerzbank said in a note.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shale Growth Could Slow On Oil Price Meltdown

Shale Growth Could Slow On Oil Price Meltdown

Oil

Can the U.S. shale boom continue if WTI stays mired below $50 per barrel?

Much has been made about the dramatic cost reductions that shale drillers have implemented over the past few years, with impressive breakeven prices that should ensure the drilling frenzy continues no matter where oil prices go. On earnings calls with investors and analysts, shale executives repeatedly trumpeted extremely low breakeven prices.

However, those figures are at times cherry-picked or otherwise misleading. They fail to include the cost of land acquisition and other costs, or they simply reflect cost structures in only the very best acreage.

The sudden meltdown in prices – oil fell nearly 8 percent on Tuesday – could put renewed scrutiny on the point at which many shale wells breakeven.

The problem for a lot of companies is that they are not necessarily earning the full WTI price. Oil in West Texas in the Permian Basin continues to trade at a steep discount relative to WTI, even as the differential has narrowed in recent months. With WTI at roughly $47 or $48 per barrel, oil based in Midland is trading below $40 per barrel, the lowest point in more than two years, according to Bloomberg.

Bloomberg NEF data provides more clues into the complex “breakeven” debate. Wells located in the Spraberry (within the Permian basin) can breakeven when prices trade between $32 and $47 per barrel. Digging deeper, Bloomberg NEF notes that some of the best wells can break even in the low $30s, but the worst quartile of wells breakeven at an average of $65.54 per barrel.

In other words, a large portion of wells in the Permian – which, to be clear, is often held up as the best shale basin in the world – is currently unprofitable, given WTI priced in the high-$40s per barrel.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What’s Behind The Crash In Crude?

What’s Behind The Crash In Crude?

Basra oil terminal

Oil prices crashed to new one-year lows on Tuesday, dragged down by a deepening sense of global economic gloom as well as fears of oversupply in the oil market itself.

The reasons for the sudden meltdown were multiple. Rising crude oil inventories and expected increases in shale production weighed on oil prices, but the price crash was accentuated by the broader selloff in financials.

Genscape said that inventories are rising, which has raised fears of tepid demand amid soaring supply growth. “The Cushing number came in higher than anticipated … it’s definitely pointing to the concern that there’s more supply and demand is weakening,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, according to Reuters. “The market is still very nervous about that.”

Crude prices fell 4 percent on Monday and about 7 percent on Tuesday. WTI dropped below $47 per barrel and Brent fell to the $56 handle.

The EIA said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report that it expects U.S. shale production to top 8.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January, rising by a massive 134,000 bpd month-on-month. The Permian alone will see production rise by 73,000 bpd next month. By way of context, the gains in the Permian are bigger than even some of the large monthly declines that we have seen in Venezuela, for instance.

Still, with WTI dropping below $50 per barrel, shale drillers will start to face increasing financial strain. That could force a slowdown in the shale patch. “We’re probably going to see a supply slowdown in the U.S.,” Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank, told Bloomberg. “I do think that producers will react.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shale Under Pressure As Oil Falls Below $50

Shale Under Pressure As Oil Falls Below $50

fracking operation

The OPEC+ cuts still are not doing very much to boost oil prices, dashing hopes for many U.S. shale producers. With companies in the process of formulating their budgets for 2019, the prospect of $50 oil sticking around raises questions about the heady production figures expected from the shale patch.

The IEA expects U.S. oil production to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2019. But oil prices could significantly impact those projections. “Total U.S. shale oil growth is highly sensitive to WTI prices in the $40-60 range,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a December 13 note. The investment bank said that shale producers are growing more sensitive to prices below $60 but less sensitive to price spikes above $60. “If WTI remains around current levels (~$50/bbl), US growth should start to slow.”

The investment bank said that larger companies, such as ConocoPhillips or Occidental Petroleum, are less sensitive to price swings than smaller E&Ps. On the other hand, some companies could begin to slow production if prices linger at low levels. Morgan Stanley pointed to Apache Corp., Murphy Oil, Newfield Exploration, Oasis Petroleum, Whiting Petroleum and Chesapeake Energy. “With low oil prices, we see these companies slowing production growth in 2019 to spend within cash flow (or minimize outspend), [free cash flow] levels fall or turn negative, and leverage metrics move higher.”

Other analysts also see price sensitivity from the shale sector. “We expect 5-10% capex growth on average at $59 WTI, which should yield production growth of nearly 1.3mn b/d,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note. “However producers may budget for lower oil prices given the recent decline in prices and increase in uncertainty.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Shale Struggles As Oil Prices Drop

U.S. Shale Struggles As Oil Prices Drop

roughnecks

The explosive production growth in the U.S. shale patch has surprised even the most optimistic forecasters, but the huge jumps in output belies and obscures the financial state of the industry, which is a bit more complicated than the production figures might suggest.

Shale companies scrambled to cut costs during the oil market downturn between 2014 and 2017, and they successfully lowered their breakeven prices significantly. When OPEC+ agreed on its initial production cut deal, which started at the beginning of 2017, the higher prices that resulted from the agreement allowed U.S. shale to rebound in a big way. Surging production over the past two years suggested that the shale industry was stronger than ever.

This year was supposed to be the year that the money started rolling in – with cost cuts in hand and higher oil prices lifting all boats, shale drillers were supposed to be in the clear. But profits have been elusive.

To be sure, some companies have posted significant earnings. The oil majors, in particular, are earning more money than they have in a long time. But the bulk of the shale industry is still struggling. According to the Wall Street Journal, the 30 largest shale companies earned a rather marginal $1.7 billion combined in 2017.

The latest meltdown in prices, however, puts a lot in the industry right back into hot water. The problem is that despite boasts of low breakeven prices, many shale companies have failed to take a comprehensive look at the all-in costs of producing oil, as the Wall Street Journal points out.

It wasn’t uncommon over the last few years to hear shale executives brag about how their wells were profitable even with oil under $40 per barrel. But often those figures didn’t include the cost of land acquisition, or transportation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alberta Intervenes To Halt Canada’s Oil Crisis

Alberta Intervenes To Halt Canada’s Oil Crisis

oil sands

Oil prices rose on Monday, buoyed by coordinated production cuts – cuts that did not come from Vienna (although that too could occur later this week).

Instead, the mandatory reductions were handed down by the provincial government of Alberta. “Perhaps OPEC should therefore consider inviting Canada to its meeting on Friday,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley announced the production cuts “in response to the historically high oil price differential that is costing the national economy more than $80 million per day,” her office said in a statement. Western Canada Select (WCS) has plunged below $15 per barrel, representing a discount to WTI that has hovered at around $40 per barrel.

“The price gap is caused by the federal government’s decades-long inability to build pipelines. Ottawa’s failure in this area has left Alberta’s energy producers with few options to move their products, resulting in serious risks for the energy industry and Alberta jobs,” the Alberta Premier’s office said.

Alberta’s oil industry is producing roughly 190,000 bpd in excess of available takeaway capacity. The surplus is filling storage up quickly. Oil producers will be required to make cuts on the order of 8.7 percent, or 325,000 bpd, beginning in January. Once the storage glut is reduced, the cuts will narrow to just 95,000 bpd, which will stay in place through the duration of 2019.

The first 10,000 bpd for each producer will be excluded from the mandatory cuts, intended to avoid negatively impacting small producers. The baseline used to calculate the cuts will be the highest level of production for each producer over the past six months.

Notley expects the production cuts to boost prices for WCS by roughly $4 per barrel, adding $1.1 billion to government revenue between 2019 and 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Crashing Refining Margins Mean For Oil Markets

What Crashing Refining Margins Mean For Oil Markets

Refinery

Oil prices have plunged to one-year lows, but refiners in certain parts of the U.S. are not benefitting from cheaper crude.

According to new data from the EIA, refining margins for motor gasoline have fallen to five-year lows. “Flattening year-over-year growth in gasoline demand in the United States, combined with high levels of refinery output, have contributed to low or negative motor gasoline refining margins for refiners along the East and Gulf Coasts,” the EIA said on November 27. Gasoline refining margins have been declining since August.

In November, U.S. gasoline demand is expected to have averaged 9.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), down 262,000 bpd from a year earlier.

(Click to enlarge)

Meanwhile, prices for distillates, such as diesel, are much higher. The discrepancy is notable, and the markets for gasoline and distillates have diverged sharply this year. The forthcoming 2020 International Maritime Organization regulations on sulfur content in maritime fuels is set to push extremely dirty heavy fuel oil out of the mix for ship-owners. One of the most important replacements for fuel oil be diesel and gasoil – in other words, distillate demand is set to spike at the start of 2020. In anticipation of these regulations, distillate prices are seeing upward pressure.

With diesel prices on the rise and gasoline prices heading in the other direction, refiners might want to maximize diesel output. However, things aren’t that simple. As the EIA notes, for every barrel of crude oil processed in a refinery, it tends to yield twice as much gasoline as it does diesel. “As a result, although gasoline margins have been low recently, refiners cannot completely stop making gasoline in favor of other petroleum products, such as distillate,” the EIA said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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