Home » Posts tagged 'natural gas production'

Tag Archives: natural gas production

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

World Natural Gas 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 3)

World Natural Gas 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 3)

This is Part 3 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world natural gas production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world natural gas supply and considers the implications of peak natural gas production for global economic growth.

Natural gas is in a relatively early phase of depletion. According to the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, world cumulative natural gas production up to 2016 was 117 trillion cubic meters, world natural gas reserves were 197 trillion cubic meters, and world natural gas resources were 643 trillion cubic meters (BGR 2017, Table A-15). BGR defines “resources” as “proven amounts of energy resources which cannot currently be exploited for technical and/or economic reasons, as well as unproven but geologically possible energy resources which may be exploitable in future” (BGR 2017, Glossary). According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, world natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were 194 trillion cubic meters (166 billion tons of oil equivalent).

chart/
World Historical and Projected Natural Gas Production, 1980-2050

This report uses official reserves, official projections, or energy research institution estimates to establish the ultimately recoverable natural gas resources for the world’s ten largest natural gas producers. For the rest of the world (the world total less the ten largest natural gas producers), this report uses Hubbert linearization to establish the ultimately recoverable natural gas resources.

Figures are placed at the end of each section.

Natural Gas Consumption by Major Economies, 1990-2017

According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, world natural gas consumption was 3,156 million tons of oil equivalent (3,670 billion cubic meters) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, world natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Natural Gas Prices Will Rise This Summer

Why Natural Gas Prices Will Rise This Summer

shale gas

Record production of natural gas is snuffing out any price rally that might have occurred from the bout of cold weather this winter.

The gas market saw a jolt at the end of December and in early January due to extremely cold temperatures across much of the U.S. This winter was about 13 percent colder than last year, which pushed up residential and commercial gas demand by 3.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to Barclays.

At the same time, demand continues to grind higher on a structural basis, with more LNG exports leaving U.S. shores and more utilities burning gas for electricity. That led to a sharp drawdown in gas inventories, pushing them 16 percent below the five-year average in the first quarter.

Nevertheless, the price impact was muted. In the past, sever cold snaps have led to sharp price spikes. While that happened in regional spot markets, the price increases were very short-term and nothing like the price increases during the 2014 Polar Vortex. After the cold subsided, Henry Hub spot prices fell back below $3/MMBtu.

Gas traders are so sanguine because the U.S. is producing more natural gas than ever. And 2018 is shaping up to be a record year for new gas output. A mild streak during February eased some pressure on inventories as well.

As a result, the U.S. will likely see “heavy” gas injections during the second quarter, according to Barclays. The bank expects gas inventories to rise at a pace that is 1 Bcf/d higher than last year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shrinking Norwegian Natural Gas Production Puts Europe In Dire Situation

Shrinking Norwegian Natural Gas Production Puts Europe In Dire Situation

In this post I present actual Norwegian natural gas production, status on reserves, the development in discoveries and what this results for Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) and my expectations for the future delivery potential for Norwegian natural gas.

Norway, after Russia, has been and is the EU’s second biggest supplier of natural gas.

Included is also a brief look at developments in actual consumption and production of natural gas in the EU 28 (the 28 members of the European Union).

• NPD revised down their band for future delivery potential by about 10 Gcm/a (Bcm/a) and moved the start of decline one year forward relative to their forecast last year.
• I now expect the Norwegian delivery potential for natural gas relative to 2014/2015 to decline by more than 40% by 2025.
• Europe will increasingly have to rely on natural gas imports from more distant sources and should by now have implemented policies for the role natural gas will have in its future energy mix.

This post is an update to my post in 2014 looking at the status as of end 2013.

(Click to enlarge)

Figure 1: The chart above shows development in natural gas exports from production installations on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) as reported by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) from 1996 to 2014 and with my forecast for delivery potential towards 2025.

The chart also shows the NPD forecasts; green line upper projection, orange line lower projection. NPD’s central projection is in about the middle of the green and orange lines.

The black dotted line is the forecast from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2012 (IEA WEO 2012).

Numbers are believed to be gross exports from the production installations and thus not adjusted for “shrinkage” from Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) extraction, primarily at Kollsnes and Kårstø. The NGL extraction reduces total sales gas volumes with around 4% relative to what is exported from the producing installations.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress