Taking serious action on climate change now could mean saving hundreds of millions of lives across the globe, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change on Monday by researchers at Duke University.
The study looked at the human health benefits of holding global climate change to 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) — the aspirational goal set by the Paris climate agreement. It found that taking significant steps to reduce carbon emissions in line with this goal would prevent more than 150 million premature deaths worldwide, largely through a decrease in air pollution.
The study looked at three different scenarios for carbon emissions reductions — one scenario where carbon emissions were reduced rapidly to keep the planet below 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, another where emissions were reduced less rapidly (but still enough to keep warming below 2°C by 2100), and a third where emissions were reduced rapidly enough to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Researchers then compared expected future emissions — and associated air pollution, like particulate matter and ozone — to expected public health impacts over the world.
Specifically, the study looked at how emissions reductions would benefit public health in the world’s largest urban areas. In six cities — Moscow, Mexico City, Sao Paolo, Los Angeles, Puebla, and New York — between 320,000 and 120,000 premature deaths could be avoided by keeping global warming below 1.5°C.
The Indian cities of Kolkata and Delhi — both of which struggle with air pollutionfrom energy and transportation — would see the greatest benefit, with up to 4.4 million and 4 million projected lives saved, respectively.
In total, 80 cities around the world would see more than 100,000 premature deaths prevented by rapid climate action meant to keep the world below 1.5°C of warming.
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