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An Eye on M1, Cyclicals, and Junk Bonds: What Matters?
An Eye on M1, Cyclicals, and Junk Bonds: What Matters? Rosenberg says “Keep an eye on M1”, others watch Cyclicals, and still others have an eye on junk bonds. An Eye on M1 View image on Twitter All of the monetary aggregates have slowed substantially, and real M1 growth is flagging a 1% stall-speed growth economy […]
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3 “During the 1980s and 1990s, most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon.” —Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he […]
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” —Milton Friedman Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation? Ever heard anyone else question it? Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite […]
Venezuela’s Money Supply Soars By A Record 200%
Venezuela’s Money Supply Soars By A Record 200% Two weeks ago, Reuters reported that due to “unexplained” reasons, the Venezuela central bank had stopped publishing its M2, or money supply, data. The M2 money supply was up by nearly 180% in mid-February from a year earlier, according to the central bank before it halted the […]
Venezuela Stops Publishing Money Supply Data For Obvious Reasons
Venezuela Stops Publishing Money Supply Data For Obvious Reasons More than a year after hyperinflating banana republic Venezuela stopped reporting official inflation data, Venezuela has stopped publishing money supply data, depriving the general public of the last, and best, available tool to ascertain soaring inflation in what has become the world’s worst-performing economy. Then again, […]
Why I Think there Will Be a “Dollar Panic”
Why I Think there Will Be a “Dollar Panic” The Great American Credit Collapse Please remember this warning when you go to the ATM to get cash — and there is none. While we were thinking about what was really going on with today’s strange new money system, a startling thought occurred to us. Our financial system could […]
Downtrend In the Growth Rate of Money Supply Poses a Threat to Bubble Activities
DOWNTREND IN THE GROWTH RATE OF MONEY SUPPLY POSES A THREAT TO BUBBLE ACTIVITIES The yearly growth rate of real gross domestic product eased to 1.9% in Q4 from 2% in the previous quarter. Using our large scale econometric model we can suggest that the yearly growth rate of GDP could fall to 1.7% by Q3 before bouncing to […]
The Global Run On Physical Cash Has Begun: Why It Pays To Panic First
The Global Run On Physical Cash Has Begun: Why It Pays To Panic First Back in August 2012, when negative interest rates were still merely viewed as sheer monetary lunacy instead of pervasive global monetary reality that has pushed over $6 trillion in global bonds into negative yield territory, the NY Fed mused hypothetically about […]
What A Cashless Society Would Look Like
What A Cashless Society Would Look Like Calls by various mainstream economists to ban cash transactions seem to be getting ever louder, while central bankers have unleashed negative interest rates on economies accounting for 25% of global GDP, with $5.5 trillion in government bonds yielding less than zero. The two policies are rapidly converging. Bills and coins account for […]
The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship?
The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship? One of the most reliable indicators of an imminent recession through recent history has been the yield curve. Whenever longer dated rates falls below shorter dated ones, a recession is not far off. Some would even say that yield curve inversion, or backwardation, help cause the economic contraction. […]
Can the Fed Print Money?
Can the Fed Print Money? Every morning is the dawn of a new error – Anonymous It Can and it Does In light of the upcoming October Fed (non-)decision, we want to briefly revisit a subject that still appears to be causing some confusion. We most recently encountered this confusion again in a quarterly update by […]
How money creation threatens hyperinflation
How money creation threatens hyperinflation In order to understand the relationship between money creation and the price level, we first need to get some definitions straight. To Austrians the terms inflation and deflation refer to money and not prices. There is no doubt that money has experienced unprecedented inflation. In February of 2010 base money […]
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare
March 14, 2018
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare “This reminds me of the late 1960s when we experimented with low rates and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy at full employment and fund the Vietnam War. Today we don’t have a recession, let alone a war. We are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as […]
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