A Natural Resources memo extolling the economic benefits of more bitumen pipelines for Canada is “riddled with factual and analytical mistakes” that could “dangerously mislead” elected officials and the public, says an economist who has pored over its claims.

In a detailed 10-page letter, B.C. economist Robyn Allan has warned Jim Carr, minister of Natural Resources, that the memo’s conclusions are “unreliable and yet, based on recent public statements, you have adopted them to conclude new pipelines, such as Trans Mountain’s expansion, are necessary.”

Trans Mountain is one of four proposed pipeline projects, controversial for safety and climate change concerns, currently under consideration.

Allan’s letter documents a series of major errors in the February memo titled “Economic Benefits of Pipelines.” The memo wasn’t released until July due to a Freedom of Information Request. Allan, who served as president and CEO of the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia and as senior economist for B.C. Central Credit Union, analyzed the document in September.

The memo to the minister contends that Canada’s oil pipelines are currently operating at “over potential”; that they need one million barrels of new capacity by 2020; that lack of tidewater access has cost the economy billions and that Asian markets are “fast growing.”

Yet the facts support none of these claims says Allan, who has long questioned the economic argument for expanding bitumen production in an era of low and volatile oil prices.

Allan asserts these errors:

1. Not true that pipelines are operating beyond potential.

The memo states that Canada’s pipelines were operating at fullest potential in 2014. But it omits the ongoing problem of leaking and faulty pipelines and its dramatic impact on pipeline capacity.

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