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Don’t Go Picking Up Quarters in Front of a Steamroller

How did you go bankrupt?
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.
― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Winning the lottery sounds like a dream come true, until you understand most people who win end up broke a few years later. (Most don’t invest their money properly to make it last.)

Everyone knows the possibility of making a large sum of money fast is a thrill, especially if you end up turning a small amount of money into a heap of cash. Maybe that’s why Americans on average spend over $1,000 a year on lottery tickets?

Now, you’re probably thinking that investing, especially saving for retirement, is completely different from buying a lottery ticket. Here’s the problem: your brain doesn’t really understand the difference.

When you win, whether it’s a $100 scratch-off prize, a Texas hold ’em pot or a great trade in your brokerage account, your brain rewards you. This psychological process is identical to gambling addiction. And it’s potentially just as destructive. Especially when it comes to investing or saving for retirement, gambling is a dangerous way to think Here’s why…

The way addiction works is just brutal. As Scientific American explains, over time the euphoria of winning decreases. People tend to risk more and more to recapture that feeling. And when a big bet goes wrong, you can get crushed by losses. Like a steamroller smashing your wealth into dust. Worse still, some “chase the high” by leveraging their investments on margin (and we’ve seen how that ends).

Which brings up an important question…

What makes these fast profit opportunities so tempting?

“Look! A shiny quarter! And there’s another one!”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Living Off Grid As The Collapse Of Society Approaches: “Why Aren’t More People Doing This?”

Living Off Grid As The Collapse Of Society Approaches: “Why Aren’t More People Doing This?”

You don’t have to be a cog in the system.  For most of us, the only option that was presented while we were growing up was to get on the hamster wheel and run as fast as we could.  You know what I mean – go to school, get a job, pay a mortgage, prepare for retirement, etc.  But it doesn’t have to be that way.  If you truly want to unplug from the system and live your life off the grid, you can.  Of course it isn’t easy, but nothing in life really worth doing ever is.

Sadly, the lives of most people are defined by the matrix that the vast majority of us are connected to on a daily basis.  In most cases, your income and status in society are defined by whatever “job” has been given to you by whichever corporation you are currently working for.  We like to call ourselves “employees”, but in essence we are basically corporate servants.

Of course most people feel like they can’t quit their corporate jobs because each month they have to make payments on mortgages, auto loans and credit card debts that they owe to giant corporate financial institutions.

And most people also feel the need to constantly “prepare for retirement” by pouring money into corporate securities in the rigged game that we call “the stock market”.

But what is going to happen to all of them when our economic and financial systems completely implode?

During this current economic downturn, millions upon millions of Americans have already lost their jobs, and it is being reported that millions of Americans could potentially be evicted from their homes in 2021.

When things go bad, it is the little guy that gets crushed first.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Investing For The Greenwash Bubble

Update: Ironically, this post has been censored by Facebook and other social media co’s, despite it containing no factual errors.

Greenwashing, in case you don’t know, is the “disinformation disseminated by an organization so as to present an environmentally responsible public image”.

You know, this sort of thing:

This is taken from the time of the now infamous Volkswagen emissions cheating scandal. Since then, other large car companies have faced similar controversy — jumping on the green band wagon. It’s because these days, it pays to be “green” (for more information, see Elon Musk).

But here’s the thing that otherwise intelligent people seem to fail to comprehend: Greenwashing extends way beyond false advertising in consumer goods. It’s made its way into politics, investment products, journalism, and now mainstream opinion in “the West”.

Greenwashing is actually now the norm, which we’re now going to get into after I fire off an early warning trigger alert:

This warning is if you’re a current believer in the generic clean energy revolution. You know the one — it goes something like this: Unless we “decarbonize” and move from fossil fuels to so called “clean” energy, within the next decade or so the world suffers irreversible and catastrophic changes that will:

  • Lead to increasingly warmer temperatures
  • Kill off swathes of wildlife, causing mass extinctions
  • Cause untold starvation and hardship for us bipeds
  • Increase inequality
  • And so on…

Well, today we’re dissecting this popular narrative that has virtuous intentions, but — like many things our governments have been mandating these days — are doomed to fail and actually make things worse than if nothing was done at all.

“That’s a little hyperbolic,” I hear you say.

Well, let’s see…

Here are some cold, hard facts, regardless of how controversial they might seem by today’s standards.:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Americans Are Leading The World By Hedging Their Bets In Silver

Americans Are Leading The World By Hedging Their Bets In Silver

When it comes to silver, Americans are leading the world in hedging their bets in the shiny metal.  This year, Americans have purchased one out of every three ounces of physical silver bar and coin compared to the rest of the world.  And, that’s not all.  If we also consider total Silver ETF demand, the U.S. based SLV ETF has seen its inventories increase by over 200 million oz in 2020.

Thus, Americans have purchased nearly half of all the global physical and ETF silver investment this year.  According to the Metals Focus Silver Interim Report for the Silver Institute, the U.S. is projected to see a 62% increase in physical silver bar and coin demand this year over 2019.  Based on the 2020 World Silver Survey data, total U.S. physical silver demand was 48.2 million oz (Moz) last year.  Simple math puts the total estimate for U.S. silver bar and coin demand at 78 Moz in 2020.  With global physical silver investment to be 237 Moz this year, the U.S. accounts for one-third of the total.

Furthermore, the U.S. based iShares SLV ETF, saw its inventories increase more than 200 Moz this year, accounting for two-thirds of the total 300 Moz growth in global silver ETFs.

Now, I don’t know if all that silver is located in the SLV ETF vaults, but it is still an excellent indicator revealing the increasing need for Americans to place more of their wealth into silver.  I believe this is only the beginning of a rising trend that will continue over the following years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ben Hunt: Inflation Ahead!

Ben Hunt — highly respected fund manager, author, and former professor/entrepreneur/venture capitalist — says that to be successful in managing your wealth, there’s only one question that matters:

Are we entering a deflationary future, or an inflationary one?

The strategies and appropriate investment targets for each are extremely different, so you’d better answer correctly.

Though Hunt says as long as you identify the trend “roughly” right, you should do fine. You don’t have to be brilliant with the exact investments you put your capital into. As long as they benefit from the secular trend, its massive scale and momentum will do the heavy lifting.

So which kind of future are we entering?

Hunt thinks we’re at a very important inflection point. That after decades of deflation (e.g., chronically declining interest rates), we’re now transitioning into an era of secular inflation.

The $trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus so far, and the near-certainty of much more to come, are certainly a big step in that direction.

And with asset prices completely distorted from reality, a struggling global economy, and an inflationary outlook, Hunt thinks the coming years will be extremely rocky for investors. Lots of cross-currents, with the only guarantee being that the majority of investment predicts will be foiled — as there remain very few active investors alive who have any experience managing capital in an inflationary environment.

Which is why Hunt is emphatic that now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the risks in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

SILVER IS THE BETTER INVESTMENT: Massive Financial Bubbles Everywhere

SILVER IS THE BETTER INVESTMENT: Massive Financial Bubbles Everywhere

The market will finally realize that silver is a better investment when the world’s financial bubbles start popping everywhere.  This will cause the silver price to reach levels that will make the past $50 record seem relatively insignificant.  It’s not a matter of if, it’s only a matter of when.

I discussed this in my newest video update, SILVER THE BETTER INVESTMENT: Massive Bubbles Everywhere.  In the video, I explain why trading tomorrow, on the last day in August, may set a significant trend for silver heading into September.  If silver can close above $28.50+, it will set up a much more positive technical move for the metal to continue towards $30+.

In the video, I also show how the silver price had three nice BREAKOUTS with another possible BREAKOUT at the $28 level.  Again, trading in the U.S. Markets tomorrow will likely set the trend for September.

UPDATE: Silver Breaks Out Above $21, What’s Next For Investors?

UPDATE: Silver Breaks Out Above $21, What’s Next For Investors?

The long-awaiting day has finally arrived.  After five long years, silver has finally reached its previous high of $21 set back in 2016.  So, now that the silver price has reached and broken through the $21 level, what’s next for investors?

Before I show the charts, let me clarify the difference in silver prices shown below and on Kitco.com.  Kitco.com uses the London Metal Exchange (LME) silver price quotes that are approximately 30-40 cents less than the silver futures on the U.S. based Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) that Investing.com (below) and Stockcharts.com uses for silver price charts.

Yesterday, I was quite busy on my twitter feed, providing updates on the silver price.  Here were a few of my Tweets during early trading yesterday:

As I had mentioned on several articles and Twitter, silver had to break above the critical $19.75 level for it to be able to attempt the next target level of $21.  And, yesterday, that is precisely what the silver price accomplished.  Once silver broke above $19.75 and then $20, it consolidated into an ASCENDING TRIANGLE formation, which can be very bullish or positive for a continued move higher.

The silver price did push through that level and closed near the highs of the day.  Then in Asian trading last night, traders continued to pile into the shiny metal, pushing it up even further.  However, when silver reached the $21 level, it consolidated around $20.90 before pushing through once again:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

MAJOR FACTOR TO INVEST IN SILVER: Five Billion Ounces Of Mine Supply Economically Lost In Past Decade

MAJOR FACTOR TO INVEST IN SILVER: Five Billion Ounces Of Mine Supply Economically Lost In Past Decade

Silver will likely turn out to be one heck of a better investment than gold due to the rarity of the metal and lack of available supply in the future.  While gold has stolen the show recently, I’ll bet my bottom Silver Dollar that silver will outperform gold during the next financial-currency crisis.

But, before I provide my analysis, I wanted to make a few comments about the analysts who say that “SILVER ISN’T A REAL INVESTMENT” like gold.  I follow many websites and newsletters, and there seems to be this notion that silver is just an industrial metal, and its lousy price performance so far this year, versus gold, proves it isn’t worth of investing.

Yes, it’s true that silver has underperformed gold and may likely experience a paper price selloff once the broader stock markets begin to crash once again.  However, at that time, I imagine acquiring silver retail bullion products will even more difficult than it was during March-April.

Regardless, the reason I believe silver will be one of the few KEY INVESTMENTS to own going forward has to do with the dire energy predicament we face… which I label as the ENERGY CLIFF.  Unfortunately, most analysts that look at silver as more of an industrial metal do not understand the Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment and how it’s impacting the global economy and financial system.

So, they continue to criticize the “Silver Pumpers” or “Silver Hypers” as mere charlatans.  I find this simply hilarious when the Federal Reserve just purchased $3 trillion worth of assets in just the past three months.  Furthermore, total U.S. public debt increased $25 billion per day in 2020, more than five times the average daily rate over the past decade.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

28 Signs Of Economic Doom As The Pivotal Month Of September Begins

28 Signs Of Economic Doom As The Pivotal Month Of September Begins

Since the end of the last recession, the outlook for the U.S. economy has never been as dire as it is right now.  Everywhere you look, economic red flags are popping up, and the mainstream media is suddenly full of stories about “the coming recession”.  After several years of relative economic stability, things appear to be changing dramatically for the U.S. economy and the global economy as a whole.  Over and over again, we are seeing things happen that we have not witnessed since the last recession, and many analysts expect our troubles to accelerate as we head into the final months of 2019.

We should certainly hope that things will soon turn around, but at this point that does not appear likely.  The following are 28 signs of economic doom as the pivotal month of September begins…

#1 The U.S. and China just slapped painful new tariffs on one another, thus escalating the trade war to an entirely new level.

#2 JPMorgan Chase is projecting that the trade war will cost “the average U.S. household” $1,000 per year.

#3 Yield curve inversions have preceded every single U.S. recession since the 1950s, and the fact that it has happened again is one of the big reasons why Wall Street is freaking out so much lately.

#4 We just witnessed the largest decline in U.S. consumer sentiment in 7 years.

#5 Mortgage defaults are rising at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last financial crisis.

#6 Sales of luxury homes valued at $1.5 million or higher were down five percentduring the second quarter of 2019.

#7 The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for the very first time since September 2009.

#8 The Cass Freight Index has been falling for a number of months.  According to CNBC, it fell “5.9% in July, following a 5.3% decline in June and a 6% drop in May.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Outlook For The Global Economy Has Deteriorated”: Oil, Copper And Lumber Are All Telling Us The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

“The Outlook For The Global Economy Has Deteriorated”: Oil, Copper And Lumber Are All Telling Us The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

Oil, copper and lumber are all telling us the exact same thing, and it isn’t good news for the global economy.  When economic activity is booming, demand for commodities such as oil, copper and lumber goes up and that generally causes prices to rise.  But when economic activity is slowing down, demand for such commodities falls and that generally causes prices to decline.  In recent weeks, we have witnessed a decline in commodity prices unlike anything that we have witnessed in years, and many are concerned that this is a very clear indication that hard times are ahead for the global economy.

Let’s talk about oil first.  The price of oil peaked in early October, but since that time it has fallen more than 25 percent, and the IEA is warning of “relatively weak” demand out of Asia and Europe

The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that while US demand for oil has been “very robust,” demand in Europe and developed Asian countries “continues to be relatively weak.” The IEA also warned of a “slowdown” in demand in developing nations such as India, Brazil and Argentina caused by high oil prices, weak currencies and deteriorating economic activity.

“The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated,” the IEA wrote.

Meanwhile, the price of copper has been declining for quite some time now.  The price of copper also fell substantially just before the last recession, and many analysts are pointing out that “Dr. Copper” is now waving a red flag once again

The message of weakening demand on the oil front was reinforced by the falling price of copper.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stock Market Crash! The Dow Has Now Plunged 2,368 Points From The Peak Of The Market

Stock Market Crash! The Dow Has Now Plunged 2,368 Points From The Peak Of The Market

The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking.  After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another 608 points.  Since peaking at 26,951.81 on October 3rd, the Dow has now fallen 2,368 points, and all of the gains for 2018 have been completely wiped out.  But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq.  The percentage decline for the Nasdaq almost doubled the Dow’s stunning plunge on Wednesday, and it has now officially entered correction territory.  To say that it was a “bloodbath” for tech stocks on Wednesday would be a major understatement.  Several big name tech stocks were in free fall mode as panic swept through the marketplace like wildfire.  As I noted the other day, October 2018 looks a whole lot like October 2008, and many believe that the worst is yet to come.

But in the short-term we should see some sort of bounce once the current wave of panic selling is exhausted.  During every major stock market crash in our history there have been days when the stock market has absolutely soared, and this crash will not be any exception.

If we do see a bounce on either Thursday or Friday, please don’t assume that the crash is over.  Most key technical levels have already been breached, and even a small piece of bad news can send stocks plunging once again.

On Wednesday there really wasn’t anything too unusual that happened, but stocks cratered anyway.  Here is a summary of the carnage…

-The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 608 points on Wednesday.

-The Dow is now down 7.1 percent for the month of October.

-The S&P 500 has now fallen for 13 of the last 15 trading days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Teetering On The Brink Of Disaster: 14 Of 19 Bear Market Signals Have Now Been Triggered

Teetering On The Brink Of Disaster: 14 Of 19 Bear Market Signals Have Now Been Triggered

October 2018 is turning out to be a lot like October 2008.  The S&P 500 has now fallen for 12 of the last 14 trading days, and it is on pace for its worst October since the last financial crisis.  But the U.S. is actually in much better shape than the rest of the world at this point.  Even though they have fallen precipitously in recent days, U.S. stocks are still up 3 percent for the year overall.  On the other hand, global stocks (excluding the U.S.) are now down more than 10 percent for the year, and they are down more than 15 percent from the peak of the market in January.  All it is going to take is a couple more really bad trading sessions to push global stocks into bear market territory.

And even though U.S. stocks are still outperforming the rest of the world, many are anticipating that the U.S. is definitely heading for a bear market as well.

According to Bank of America, 14 out of their 19 “bear market indicators” have now been triggered

“Expect a long bout of volatility,” Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report published on Sunday.

Bank of America keeps a running tally of “signposts” that signal looming bear market. The bad news is that 14 of these 19 indicators, or 74%, have been triggered. Two more were toppled earlier this month: the VIX volatility index (VIX) climbed above 20 and a growing number of Americans expect stocks to go up.

Of course not all 19 indicators need to be triggered in order for a bear market to happen.  These indicators are simply signposts, and what they are telling us is that big trouble could be brewing for the financial markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Dow Has Fallen Nearly 1,500 Points From The Peak Of The Market, And Many Believe This “October Panic” Is Just Beginning…

The Dow Has Fallen Nearly 1,500 Points From The Peak Of The Market, And Many Believe This “October Panic” Is Just Beginning…

We haven’t had an October like this in a very long time.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 327 points on Thursday, and overall the Dow is now down close to 1,500 points from the peak of the market.  Unlike much of the rest of the world, it is still too early to say that the U.S. is facing a new “financial crisis”, but if stocks continue to plunge like this one won’t be too far away.  And as you will see below, many believe that what we have seen so far is just the start of a huge wave of selling.  Of course it would be extremely convenient for Democrats if stocks did crash, because it would give them a much better chance of doing well in the midterm elections.  This is the most heated midterm election season that I can ever remember, and what U.S. voters choose to do at the polls in November is going to have very serious implications for the immediate future of our country.

After a very brief rally earlier in the week, stocks have been getting hammered again.  The S&P 500 has now fallen for 9 out of the last 11 trading sessions, and homebuilder stocks have now fallen for 19 of the last 22 trading sessions.  It was a “sea of red” on Thursday, and some of the stocks that are widely considered to be “economic bellwethers” were among those that got hit the hardest

Several stocks seen as economic bellwethers fell sharply in the U.S., including United Rentals and Textron, which dropped at least 11 percent each. Snap-on and Caterpillar, meanwhile, fell 9.6 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Dangers of Investing Based on Phony Government Statistics

The Dangers of Investing Based on Phony Government Statistics

President Donald Trump recently took to Twitter to boast, “The U.S. has an increased economic value of more than 7 Trillion Dollars since the Election. May be the best economy in the history of our country. Record Jobs numbers. Nice!”

“We ran out of words to describe how good the jobs numbers are,” reported Neil Irwin of the New York Times, amplified in a Trump retweet.

Increase

If you believe the headline numbers, joblessness is at a generational low with the economy booming.

Trillions in nominal value added to the stock market since Trump’s election. GDP up over 3% in the second quarter. 223,000 jobs added in May. Unemployment at an 18-year low of 3.8%.

On the surface, this all paints a beautiful picture for the economy and stock market. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers aren’t quite as bright they appear. All that glitters is not gold.

Headline Unemployment Number Is Fake News

Donald Trump himself put his finger on one of the main flaws with the unemployment number back when he was a private citizen.

“Unemployment rate only dropped because more people are out of labor force & have stopped looking for work. Not a real recovery, phony numbers,” he posted on September 7th, 2012.

The headline unemployment number isn’t any less phony in 2018. Though it has improved under Trump’s presidency – in large part because of his pro-growth tax cuts and deregulation – the statistic is still derived from a dubious formula.

Back in 2012, Trump rightly pointed to the large numbers of workers who had dropped out of the labor force but weren’t counted among the ranks of the unemployed.

The labor force participation rate currently comes in at just 62.7%. That means 33.7% of the population is currently not employed in the labor force. The vast majority of these jobless Americans aren’t among the 3.8% officially “unemployed.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Investing in Collapse

Investing in Collapse

For years, I’ve been writing about Venezuela, describing it as the “movie” by which we can view the future of other jurisdictions that are presently in decline.

The reason is that declining nations follow the same pattern, time and time again, over the centuries. This is not coincidence. The pattern exists because human nature never changes, regardless of the era or the locale. Political leaders make the same mistakes as their forebears, and the people of a nation react in kind.

For this reason, countries have a sort of “shelf life.” They rise in prominence, due to work ethic and productivity. They then go through a period of abundance, which eventually deteriorates, due to complacency and apathy. Finally, they collapse into a period of bondage.

If we recognize that this pattern has played out countless times over the millennia, we can track any given country and assess where it is at present, in the pattern. For example, Europe and North America are presently in the last stages prior to collapse, Venezuela is in the process of collapse and Cuba is in the post-collapse recovery.

But, although this may be historically interesting, of what value is it to us in terms of our own lives and the choices we make for our future?

Well, we can observe Venezuela and see the effects of the present policies evident in our own country, if we happen to live in one that’s on the verge of collapse.

For example, we can see that ever-increasing largesse by a government—on the backs of productive taxpayers—is a major destructive trend. “Protective” tariffs and capital controls also lead to collapse. And excessive debt is a pathway to economic collapse.

We can see from the recent history in Venezuela how these political mistakes caused their collapse, and we can now observe how that collapse plays out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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