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Hurricane Michael’s Impact On Gasoline Demand

October 14, 2018

Hurricane Michael’s Impact On Gasoline Demand

Fuel pump

Gasoline demand increased in the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and South Carolina ahead of Hurricane Michael’s arrival to the areas, but repercussions to demand appeared to focus on rack cities in the direct path of the storm, according to our Supply Side daily rack volume data. The increased rack activity provided some uplift to PADD 1C demand Oct. 7 to 10. Daily rack activity on Oct. 9 jumped to the highest daily level since the approach of Hurricane Florence to the Carolinas in September.

Michael’s long-term ramifications to supply are not yet obvious. Ports along the upper Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic Coast closed either completely or to inbound traffic starting Oct. 9. Restrictions on ports in Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia remained as of Oct. 12, with Savannah and Charleston reopening Oct. 11. Gasoline supply in these five states relies upon waterborne barge movements from the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) and cargo imports. To add to the constrained inflows, Colonial Pipeline reported power outages at delivery facilities in southern Georgia on Oct. 11. Colonial assessed damages and impacts to Line 17, which runs from Atlanta to Bainbridge, GA, off Colonial’s 2.6mn bpd mainline system.

Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on Oct. 10 near Mexico Beach, FL, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph—the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Florida Panhandle in recorded history and the fourth strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone to hit the U.S. mainland. When Michael moved into Georgia on the evening of Oct. 10, the storm became the most intense disturbance to hit the state since 1898. The cyclone made its way through Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia. As of Oct. 12, Michael was a post-tropical cyclone off the coast of Delaware, heading northeast towards open water.

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Catastrophic Destruction by Michael, Millions Without Power, Towns Destroyed

October 12, 2018

Catastrophic Destruction by Michael, Millions Without Power, Towns Destroyed

Hurricane Michael destroyed entire towns. The electric grid won’t need to be restored, it will need to be rebuilt.

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primer on this thread just so those outside state understand a little bit about NW part of the state. It is a place we fell in love with as a family years ago & have spent many long weekends enjoying :

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Panama City is a vibrant seaside city. Popular vacation spot for both families & college students. Early reports from locals is catastrophic devastation. As it was described to me, the electric grid won’t need to be restored, it will need to be rebuilt.

Destruction for Miles and Miles

​Mexico Beach

​Search and Rescue Begins Amid Ruins of Florida Coast

Some people elected to ride the hurricane out.

That was not a good move. At least six are dead. More will come.

A Search and Rescue Effort Begins amid ruins of Florida Coast.

Search-and-rescue teams rushed on Thursday to reach communities that Hurricane Michael leveled, hoping to find survivors of the powerful storm after its rampage through the Florida Panhandle and beyond left buildings collapsed and splintered, hospitals damaged, roads and water systems compromised and more than a million homes and businesses without electricity.

Although it was clear by afternoon that the storm had caused widespread damage, some areas remained largely cut off, and the authorities were trying to deploy rescuers by helicopter and boat.

“This is a very dense part of the state, so it’s going to be a lot of work to get to everybody,” Gov. Rick Scott of Florida said. “But we will get to everybody.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“An Atomic Bomb Has Hit Our City”: ‘Apocalyptic’ Post-Michael Scenes From Mexico Beach

October 12, 2018

“An Atomic Bomb Has Hit Our City”: ‘Apocalyptic’ Post-Michael Scenes From Mexico Beach 

If the nine-foot storm surge didn’t get them, the 150+ mph winds did.

As Michael, the third-most-powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in the Continental US, prepares to make its exit into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, many residents of the Florida panhandle are still in shock as those who fled try to return, and those who stayed recount watching in abject horror as their community was leveled by flood waters and wind during one of the most aggressive storms in US history. In interviews with reporters who managed the difficult journey to Mexico Beach to survey the damage, many residents struggled to choke back tears as they described how they watched in abject horror as the water and wind ripped homes from their foundations. Out of the chaos, many quickly realized that Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s prophesy of “unimaginable devastation” had come to pass.

Mike

John Humphress, a storm chaser and drone pilot who spoke with the Associated Press about the damage, described the scene in Mexico Beach, Fla., what will be remembered as Hurricane Michael’s “ground zero”, in one word: “Apocalyptic.”

According to state officials, some 285 people in Mexico Beach refused to obey the mandatory evacuation order and thus obtained a front-row seat to the destruction from what some meteorologists have described as “the perfect storm.” While National Guard rescuers pushed into the storm zone on Thursday and rescued 20 survivors, the fate of dozens more remains unknown. FEMA Administration Brock Long put it best when he said the entire town of 1,100 had been “wiped out.”

First responders were forced to wait until after daylight on Thursday morning to access Mexico Beach as flooding from the storm had left it entirely cut off.

Two

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“I Have No Words”: Aerial Footage Shows Trail Of Devastation Left By Hurricane Michael

October 11, 2018

“I Have No Words”: Aerial Footage Shows Trail Of Devastation Left By Hurricane Michael

Florida search-and-rescue teams are searching for survivors after Hurricane Michael carved a path of devastation through several communities. According to FEMA administrator Brock Long, Mexico Beach “took the brunt’ of Michael’s carnage, adding “That’s probably ground zero.”

“Today is a big day for us when it comes to helping people,” said Long during the Thursday morning press briefing, adding “Power is not going to be on for a while.”

The latest developments, per the New York Times: 

• At least four deaths were linked to the storm in Gadsden County, west of Tallahassee, according to Lt. Anglie Hightower, a spokeswoman for the sheriff’s office. The victims included a man who died when a tree crashed down on his home in Greensboro.

• An 11-year-old girl, Sarah Radney, was killed on Wednesday when a carport was torn away and was sent hurtling into the modular home she was in, said Chad Smith, the coroner of Seminole County, Ga. “She was sitting right next to her grandmother,” said Mr. Smith, who described the girl’s death as a “horrible accident.”

• Emergency officials rushed to evacuate more than 300 patients from storm-damaged hospitals in Panama City. In total, four hospitals and 11 nursing facilities were closed in Florida. A nursing facility in Georgia was also closed.

• Much of the coast of the Florida Panhandle, including parts of Panama City and Mexico Beach, was left in ruins. The area is dotted with small, rural communities, some of them among the poorest in the state. Evacuation was difficult.Read more about how the storm was hard on people without the means to evacuate.

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2 Dead, 700,000 Without Power As Damages From “Nightmare” Michael Top $20 Billion

October 11, 2018

2 Dead, 700,000 Without Power As Damages From “Nightmare” Michael Top $20 Billion

As it moved inland over Georgia on track to hammer some parts of South and North Carolina that haven’t yet recovered from Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Michael was downgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday night. It’s expected to exit the Continent on Friday, leaving a more than 200-mile long trail of devastation and what’s expected to be roughly $20 billion in damages as it tears through the southeastern US. Already, 2 deaths have been confirmed, and it’s believed that more will come. During the latest update, the storm was 30 miles west of Augusta, Georgia and is headed into South Carolina. 

Michael

(Courtesy of Accuweather)

Despite the downgrades, Michael has cemented its status as the third most powerful storm to ever make landfall in the Continental US. Strong winds and torrential rains continued to batter Georgia overnight and have spread to South Carolina as well. According to Accuweather, winds reached 60 mph across Georgia overnight, and speeds were expected across the Carolinas over the next 24 hours.

More than 700,000 homes and businesses had lost power in Florida, Alabama and Georgia early on Thursday. The governors of North and South Carolina warned about coming heavy rain and storm-force winds as Michael moved north along the Atlantic seaboard. The NHC warned that the storm could cause life-threatening flash flooding on Thursday and Friday across the Carolinas, Georgia and as far away as Virginia.

To provide an update on the status of disaster relief, the head of the NHC will give a news conference at 8:30 am ET:

Mike

As residents prepare themselves for the monumental task of rebuilding after the storm reduced thousands of homes to splinters, scientists and first responders are reflecting on how Michael intensified from a tropical storm with negligible expected impact on Saturday to a borderline Category 5 storm that was among the most powerful to ever come ashore in the US – and certainly the most powerful storm to ever hit the Florida panhandle since record-keeping began.

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Hurricane Michael Shuts In 40% Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Production

October 11, 2018

Hurricane Michael Shuts In 40% Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Production

Michael

Roughly 40 percent of the Gulf of Mexico’s oil production and 28 percent of its natural gas production was shut down as of Tuesday, as the region braced for a powerful hurricane to make landfall.

At least 75 platforms were evacuated, according to Reuters, including those operated by Anadarko Petroleum, BHP Billiton, BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Hurricane Michael strengthened to a Category 4 storm as it approached the Florida Panhandle, threatening catastrophic damage to Florida’s Gulf Coast. “Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall,” the National Hurricane Center said in a public advisory. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 140 miles per hour as of Wednesday morning.

An estimated 670,800 barrels per day of oil production and around 726 million cubic feet per day of natural gas production shut down. At least three drilling rigs were evacuated and eight more were moved out of the range of the storm, according to BSEE.

Also, the U.S.’ largest crude oil export terminal, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), idled operations. LOOP is the only port in the United States that can handle fully laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which can carry 2 million barrels of oil.

The storm will be a very different one than Hurricane Florence, which inundated much of North Carolina a few weeks ago. Florence was a slow moving monster that dumped biblical volumes of rain on the region. Michael is expected to move much faster, moving out of the region and up the U.S. Southeast pretty quickly. That should reduce the extent of damage from catastrophic flooding, but the high speed winds are expected to do a lot of damage. As many as 200,000 people in Florida could be without power, according to Duke Energy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“A Once In A Lifetime Event”: Michael Will Be The Strongest Hurricane To Hit US In 14 Years

October 10, 2018

“A Once In A Lifetime Event”: Michael Will Be The Strongest Hurricane To Hit US In 14 Years

Update (9 am ET): Hurricane Michael continued to strengthen Wednesday morning, as the Category 4 storm’s wind speed increased to 145 mph. The storm is now poised to be the strongest to hit the US in 14 years, boasting a life threatening storm surge and the potential to cause $16 billion in damages.

The storm is now roughly 90 miles southwest of Panama City and is heading north at 13 miles per hour, according to the NHC’s latest update. The storm’s outer bands are already battering the coastal town of Apalachicola with winds of nearly 50 mph.

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Here is the 8 AM CDT position update for – water levels are rising and winds increasing along the Florida Panhandle as potentially catastrophic approaches.

As it stands, the storm is also poised to be the strongest to hit the Florida panhandle and big bend since meteorologists first started gathering data. Regional ports have closed in anticipation, and more than 230 flights have been canceled. Duke Energy Corp., a utility that supplies electricity to the region, expects more than 200,000 customers in the state will be without power. In preparation for the widespread outages, local utilities have about 19,000 workers on stand by ready to work to quickly restore power, with more workers pouring in from out of state. Still, some areas are expected to be without power for more than a week, per the Daily Commercial.

“A storm like this could be a once-in-a-lifetime event,” said Brett Rathbun, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “Winds of this intensity can really knock down any tree or structure in its path.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Evacuations Ordered As “Monstrous Hurricane” Michael Intensifies Into “Most Powerful Storm In A Decade

October 9, 2018

Evacuations Ordered As “Monstrous Hurricane” Michael Intensifies Into “Most Powerful Storm In A Decade

In a repeat of the scramble for safety that preceded the landfall of Hurricane Irma during the 2017 storm season, residents of the Florida panhandle are boarding up homes and fleeing inland as Hurricane Michael, already a Category 1 storm following a rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, barrels toward the northern Gulf of Mexico, where it’s projected to make landfall on Wednesday, possibly as a Category 3 storm.

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Hurricane Michael is moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Here are the 4 am CDT October 9th Key Messages on Hurricane .

“The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday,” the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 5 a.m. New York time.

Michael

The hurricane could generate a 12-foot surge, and 4-8 inches of rain in the region, with isolated areas getting as much as 12 inches. Michael is arriving less than a month after Florence hit North Carolina on Sept. 14, causing devastating floods, killing at least 39 and causing about $45 billion in estimated damages. Duke Energy Corp. warned customers in the region to prepare for potential outages.

After initially forming over the coast of Honduras, Michael battered western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend, causing flash flooding that left 13 dead, per CNN. With a hurricane warning in place from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida, and a hurricane watch in effect for the coast of Alabama, Florida’s governor Rick Scott called Michael “a monstrous hurricane“, and declared a state of emergency for 35 Florida counties from the panhandle to Tampa Bay.

Michael

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Michael Is Now A Hurricane, Will Continue To Strengthen As It Approaches Florida Panhandle

October 8, 2018

Michael Is Now A Hurricane, Will Continue To Strengthen As It Approaches Florida Panhandle

Update from Reuters:

  • MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED, HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA, RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST: NHC

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A new tropical storm has developed off Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and could become a dangerous Category 2 hurricane with an expected Wednesday landfall on the Gulf Coast in the Florida Panhandle region.

Hurricane watches have been issued for northwest and north central Florida ahead of Tropical Storm Michael. Forecasters say Michael could strengthen into a major hurricane as it approaches Florida’s coastline by midweek with dangerous storm surge flooding, hurricane winds, and heavy rainfall. Per the latest Weather Channel update, Michael is located 90 miles east of Cozumel, Mexico, and is moving northward at 7mph.

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Northwest Gulf Coast from Alabama/Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida. The Weather Channel said this includes Pensacola, Panama City, and Tallahassee.

Tropical storm watches have also been issued from Suwanee River, Florida, to Anna Maria Island, Florida, including Tampa Bay and  from the Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

“Michael will continue to move northward into the central Gulf of Mexico early this week, strengthening as it does so. As it approaches the eastern Gulf Coast, it will encounter a favorable environment for strengthening, and may become a Category 1-2 hurricane prior to landfall in the Florida Panhandle. There is an outside this system strengthens even more than forecast, but confidence on this scenario is low. Regardless, Michael should remain east of significant oil refineries as it approaches landfall early Wednesday, but unsettled weather as far as Louisiana is possible. Winds sustained between 80-100mph are possible along with significant rainfall and flooding along its track through this week,” said Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting LLC.

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