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China’s Furious Stimulus-and-Debt Binge Backfires
China’s Furious Stimulus-and-Debt Binge Backfires Fabled transition to a service economy? Forget it. The export and manufacturing powerhouse of the world, the locomotive – along with the US – of the global economy, and an indicator of the global economy itself, disappointed economists once again. The operative word in the media today is “unexpectedly.” China has […]
Why no economic boost from lower oil prices?
Why no economic boost from lower oil prices? Many analysts had anticipated that a dramatic drop in oil prices such as we’ve seen since the summer of 2014 could provide a big stimulus to the economy of a net oil importer like the United States. That doesn’t seem to be what we’ve observed in the […]
Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%
Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5% Central bank’s rate has impact on rates offered by commercial banks for loans and savings accounts The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press) Canada’s central bank stood pat today, electing […]
Downtrend In the Growth Rate of Money Supply Poses a Threat to Bubble Activities
DOWNTREND IN THE GROWTH RATE OF MONEY SUPPLY POSES A THREAT TO BUBBLE ACTIVITIES The yearly growth rate of real gross domestic product eased to 1.9% in Q4 from 2% in the previous quarter. Using our large scale econometric model we can suggest that the yearly growth rate of GDP could fall to 1.7% by Q3 before bouncing to […]
Canadian Oil Slammed By Low Prices, Pipeline Woes
Canadian Oil Slammed By Low Prices, Pipeline Woes Canada has been particularly hit hard during the downturn in oil prices. A major oil-producing country, Canada rode the commodity wave upwards over the past decade, but has suffered from the downturn. The economy briefly dipped into a recession in 2015. Even after growth resumed, Canada’s GDP slowed the […]
The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario
The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario Operating under the mistaken belief that a modest dose of inflation is either a prerequisite for, or a by-product of, economic growth, the nation’s top economists have been assuring us for quite some time that inflation will stay very low until the currently mediocre economy finally catches fire. As a result, […]
Oil Prices and Global Growth
Oil Prices and Global Growth CAMBRIDGE – One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November 2015, most […]
The Lull Before The Storm—–It’s Getting Narrow At The Top, Part 2
The Lull Before The Storm—–It’s Getting Narrow At The Top, Part 2 The danger lurking in the risk asset markets was succinctly captured by MarketWatch’s post on overnight action in Asia. The latter proved once again that the casino gamblers are incapable of recognizing the on-rushing train of global recession because they have become addicted to “stimulus” as […]
Looney Plunges As Canadian GDP Collapses Most Since 2009
Looney Plunges As Canadian GDP Collapses Most Since 2009 Who could have seen that coming? It appears, for America’s northern brethren, low oil proces are unequivocally terrible. Against expectations of a flat 0.0% unchanged September, Canadian GDP plunged 0.5% – its largest MoM drop since March 2009 and the biggest miss since Dec 2008. With Canada’s housing […]
18 Numbers That Scream That A Crippling Global Recession Has Arrived
18 Numbers That Scream That A Crippling Global Recession Has Arrived The stock market has been soaring, but all of the hard economic numbers are telling us that a major global recession is here. This is so reminiscent of what happened back in 2008. Back then, all of the fundamentals were screaming “recession” by the […]
Is GDP Over?
Is GDP Over? Economists from rich countries increasingly agree: Sustainable development and reducing inequality matter more than economic growth. (Photo: World Bank Photo Collection / Flickr) Organizers of October’s fifth OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy could barely contain their sense of satisfaction when the three-day event opened in Guadalajara, Mexico. Why all […]
The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy
The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP). The Chinese people created more goods and had more purchasing power with […]
With a Collapse in Commodity Prices, What Happens Next?
With a Collapse in Commodity Prices, What Happens Next? This has to be a scary time for virtually all commodities investors, whether one is talking about investing in commodities directly or in commodities companies. From oil to aluminum, nearly all commodities are not just trading near multi-year lows, but multi-decade lows. Bloomberg recently noted that commodities are […]
Debt Déjà Vu
Debt Déjà Vu For two years, financial markets have repeated the same error – predicting that US interest rates will rise within about six months, only to see the horizon recede. This serial misjudgment is the result not of unforeseeable events, but of a failure to grasp the strength and global nature of the deflationary […]
IMF downgrades Canadian growth outlook to 1% for 2015
IMF downgrades Canadian growth outlook to 1% for 2015 Risks for the world include low commodities prices, China’s slowdown and rate hikes The IMF has downgraded its outlook for Canadian growth to one per cent this year because of the impact of lower oil and commodities prices. It also has revised its expectations for global […]
