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The French Revolution (The Sequel)

The French Revolution (The Sequel)

Here we have an eighteenth century depiction of two-thirds of the motto of the French Revolution – Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité, or “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.”

It’s significant that Karl Marx was inspired by the French Revolution to form his concept of a utopian society. He envisioned a worldwide revolution in which all people everywhere would do away with the rich and everyone would then be equal. He felt that this could be achieved by peaceful means in England and America, but would require force in Germany and Russia, and a “temporary” dictatorship by the proletariat in order to create the ideal society. The utopia, he said, would from then on be self-sustaining.

As we now know, his utopia was a bit naïve, as revolutionary leaders, once exposed to the heady thrill of achieving power, are extremely reluctant to then give it up. They tend to become far more autocratic and ruthless than their predecessors and, rejecting socialist abnegation for themselves, ultimately become the next aristocracy.

It’s a pity that Mr. Marx didn’t see this coming. It was certainly evident during the French revolution, as is seen in the contemporary banner above, with its prominently featured skull and crossbones. (In case the observer didn’t get the point, the artist further accentuated his composition with the addition of two guillotines.)

Had Mr. Marx been paying attention to the actual results of the revolution, he might have noticed that the “Liberty” was never intended to be liberty for all, merely for some. (The others were meant to offer up their heads to the cause.)

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The New French Revolution?

France is now preparing to use chemical weapons against its own citizens around Paris to counter-attack the Yellow Vest rioters as their anti-Macron protests continue after 5 weeks. This chemical is a debilitating powder that can be spread over an entire area of the size of six football fields in ten seconds. So far, the police have arrested well over 150 people and they have used both tear gas and water cannons. President Emmanuel Macron’s administration is showing its increasing desperation to maintain power. The use of such chemical weapons could backfire dramatically.

(see unedited private video postings uncensored)

The French are the highest taxed population in the industrialized world. We are receiving numerous accounts from readers there in cities outside of Paris where there are major protests and violence taking place that people have been unable to leave their homes while others report they cannot reach them. It appears that much of the protests outside of Paris are not being reported in mainstream media. This type of media blackout has been standard in hopes of preventing others from joining.

There was a major protest in 1932 known as the Bonus Army were veterans from World War I who had demanded the bonus the government promised them. They occupied Washington and then President Herbert Hoover allowed the army to roll in tanks to get rid of the protesters who were there also with their wives and children. That confrontation even played a major part in Hoover losing the election to FDR. Macron better study his history. There is serious potential here that we are witnessing a major political change coming to France.

Meanwhile, advocating protests over the environment is acceptable because it will justify more taxes. In Britain, they are creating Extinction Protests to raise taxes. Of course, they are targeting the youth who do not pay taxes yet. The Yellow Vest movement began their protest over a global warming tax on fuel.

The Next French Revolution – Is it Beginning?

The austerity measures of the EU are having a profound impact in Europe. In Paris of December 1st, 2018 (right on time with our volatility models for December) there was a major civil uprising, the worst France has witnessed in recent decades. Yellow Vests have converged in Paris to protest high living costs or in other words – a TAX RIOT. Rioters ran across central Paris torching cars and buildings, looting shops, smashing windows and clashing with police. The French President, Emmanuel Macron, was in Argentina for a G20 summit and said he called an emergency meeting on Sunday when he would return. Jeanne d’Hauteserre, the mayor of Paris’ 8th district, near the Arc de Triomphe, came out and told the press: “We are in a state of insurrection, I’ve never seen anything like it.”

This has followed what was billed as a violent protest two weeks before of nationwide against fuel taxes and living costs. This tax rebellion is known as the “Yellow Vest” movement after fluorescent jackets kept in all vehicles in France. Politicians simply never learn. This is not just the youth. This is the older generations as well. Revolutions come become of taxes and corruption. The famous saying of Marie Antoinette “Let them eat cake” was the popular slogan during the French Revolution. There is no evidence that she ever actually said those words. Still, it inspired a revolution. The “cake” was not a desert, but it was a term that referred to the crust of the pâté which was left over. It certainly seems that the EU politicians are making the very same mistake. With that callous remark that was attributed to her, the Queen of France became the most hated symbol of the decadent monarchy and fueled the revolution that would cause her to (literally) lose her head several years later.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Deep History of Taxation May Surprise You

The Deep History of Taxation May Surprise You

For the majority of history, the idea of sustained taxation in peacetime was anathema. So what happened?

Two things in life are certain: death and taxes. So goes the saying. And yet despite that, the idea of the necessity of taxation is largely undisputed, “consent” to its use is, historically seen, new. How did it come about that tax evasion, first an act of protection against the abuse of government, is now frowned upon? Why is there such moral indignation, and why is tax avoidance such a big deal today when it was widespread centuries ago?

Think of the procedure of taxation and then imagine you’d have to explain it to a person who has never heard of it before. That is pretty much the history of taxation in a nutshell. Early taxes in Ancient Rome and Greece were not only very low and indirect (for instance, on goods), they were only levied when there was a time of crisis. European countries which were large traders, such as the Netherlands or England, gathered funds for the expenses of the state through tariffs. While these were protectionist and surely not good news for the farmers on each side, at least they did not claim ownership to a part of the people’s income, as they did in France.

Historically Speaking

The crown was confronted with such a large opposition to the tith, that King Henry suspended it and promised to never levy such a tax again.

During the Middle Ages, the King’s finances and those of private individuals were merged: there was no distinction between a public budget and private budget. Consecutive monarchs instituted taxes according to the expenses they deemed necessary at that moment in time.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

USA 2017 vs. France 1789

USA 2017 vs. France 1789

Most people are familiar with the story of the French Revolution: When the poor revolted against the unfairness and wealth inequality imposed by the aristocrats, they overthrew the monarchy and beheaded more than 40,000 people, mostly clergy and noblemen, as punishment for their crimes and injustices.

The days of using a guillotine may be behind us – but the anger that led to that revolution is similar to the growing anger at economic inequality in the US today, and could lead to the same kind of unrest.

In France, there were three classes: The First Estate, made up of clergy; The Second Estate, made up of the nobility; and the Third Estate, made up of everyone else. Even though the first two Estates were made up of just 3% of the population, they owned 35% of the land, paid almost no taxes, and held virtually all the political power in the country.

Where are we in America today?

Wealth distribution

If they were around today, heads still attached, French aristocrats would be mightily impressed with the wealth accumulation of America’s rich. The top 1% of the country owns 35% of the wealth; the top 10% owns 77% of the wealth. The bottom 40% owns 0% (here).

Perhaps the best summary of where we are on wealth inequality can be found in the video below:

Tax burden

Certainly, the American rich are paying more in taxes than did their pre-revolutionary French Counterparts. But as a share of income, the American poor are carrying a much heavier burden.

When most people talk about taxes, they think of income taxes, and on that front the rich do pay quite a bit more: According to the Tax Foundation, in 2015, “The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a higher effective income tax rate than any other group, at 27.1 percent, which is over 8 times higher than taxpayers in the bottom 50 percent (3.3 percent).”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What’s Eroding the Middle Class?

What’s Eroding the Middle Class?

This erosion of a self-employed, independent middle class was an important pre-condition for the collapse of Rome and the French Revolution.

I have devoted many blog posts to the erosion of the middle class, for the specific reason that when the middle class–the layers of the economy between the Power Elites and landless laborers/state dependents–erodes away, the nation/empire is destabilized and descends into crisis.

A society without a functioning middle layer of economic and social activity is not stable, though repression can mask this for a time.

As historian Peter Turchin explained in his book War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, societies that lose the cohesion needed for concerted, collective action collapse, either by failing to meet an external threat or from internal conflicts.

Economies constructed of a supremely wealthy elite, a thin layer of independent artisans and small farmers, and a great mass of laborers with no assets has no shared sense of identity or purpose; those at the bottom have little in common with those at the top, and the thin middle that is scraping by has little affinity with either the elite above or the poverty-stricken below.

This erosion of a self-employed, independent middle class was an important pre-condition for the collapse of Rome and the French Revolution.

As I have outlined in some detail, the middle class in the U.S. is eroding: the lifestyle that was widely accessible to a broad swath of households in the 1960s is now only available to the top 10% below the wealthy (the top 5%). This includes not just possessions like a home or vehicle but productive assets that can be handed down to the next generation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Austerity or Hyperinflation. Which is the Precursor to Revolution?

Austerity or Hyperinflation. Which is the Precursor to Revolution?

QUESTION: Mr, Armstrong;

I recently read an article claiming to be a case study that it was somehow the French hyperinflation that led to the revolution. It seems that as you say they are again mixing facts to support a rise in gold with hyperinflation. I am a collector of French monetary history and the paper money came after the revolution not before. Unquestionably, there was austerity prior to the revolution and that seems to be repeating in Europe once again. Would you care to comment on this issue for it seems they are distorting history once again to sell gold.

Your debut here in Paris was super. It has really made some impact starting a discussion.

PV

Assignat_de_5_livres_(de_la_République)

ANSWER: Yes you are correct. The French hyperinflation came after the French Revolution for they defaulted on their national debts accumulated by the crown and then confiscated the property of the Catholic Church to try to back their post-revolutionary currency. The nation went into hyperinflation because the revolution defaulted on all prior debt and they were then hunting the rich, taking everything they had, and beheaded them. This was not an atmosphere that promotes CONFIDENCE.

These people try to claim the hyperinflation is caused by paper money rather than revolution which results in hunting the rich. The German hyperinflation was the same sequence. It was a communist revolution in 1918 which also defaulted on the national debt of the prior government. It is not the paper money, it is the default that distinguishes both hyperinflation events for CONFIDENCE simply collapses and the economy implodes. By attributing this to “fiat” paper they then assume that we must go into hyperinflation simply because we too have paper money. That is just an unsupported analysis which distorts the entire sequence of events. This analysis is highly dangerous and amounts to consumer fraud.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Part Deux ‐ Shorting the Federal Reserve

Part Deux ‐ Shorting the Federal Reserve

The sequence of events leading up the French Revolution are likely unfamiliar to most. Yet money printing and a debauched French currency played no small part in those events. As a sequel to “Shorting the Federal Reserve”, 720 Global aims to provide an historical example of excessive money printing which lead to financial crisis, and ultimately the revolution of a major sovereign nation. More than a history lesson, this article effectively illustrates the road on which the U.S. and many other nations currently travel. The story relayed in this article is not a forecast for what may happen but a simple reminder of what has repeatedly happened in the past.

As you read, notice the story lines the French politicians used to persuade the opposition and justify money printing. Note the similarities to the rationales used by central bankers and neo‐ Keynesians today. Then, as now, it is promoted as a cure for economic ills with manageable consequences and where failure to generate a sustainable recovery are thought to be a failure of not having acted boldly enough.

Our gratitude to the late Andrew D. White, on whose work we relied heavily. The exquisite account of France circa the 1780‐1790’s was well documented in his paper entitled “Fiat Money Inflation in France” published in‐1896. Any unattributed quotes were taken from his paper.

Before The Presses Rolled

During the 1700’s France accumulated significant debts under the reigns of King Louis XV and King Louis XVI. The combination of wars, significant financial support of America in the Revolutionary War, and lavish government spending were key drivers of the deficit. Through the latter part of the century, numerous financial reforms were enacted to stem the problem, but none were successful. On a few occasions, politicians supporting fiscal austerity resigned or were fired because belt tightening was not popular and the King certainly didn’t want a revolution on his hands.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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