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Forecast What?

Forecast What? Roy Lichtenstein Woman With Flowered Hat 1963Well, Dr. D is back again. You might want to sit down for this one.Dr. D: In my last article I wrote about cows and hay and unrealistic estimates of production of the land. But surely that is all academic. What could possibly force Americans to once again eat by […]

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Why Are Mainstream Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?

Why Are Mainstream Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong? Every end of the year, by the end of the year, we receive numerous estimates of global GDP growth and inflation for the following year. Historically, almost in all cases, expectations of inflation and growth are too optimistic in December for the following year. If we look […]

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Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame. Illustration by David Parkins The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates perfectly how the operation of science changes when questions of urgency, stakes, values and uncertainty collide — in the ‘post-normal’ regime. […]

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The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions

The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions Darts in a Blizzard Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings.  We  bring words of doom and despair.  We bring words of contemplation and reflection.  And we also bring words of hope and sunshine. Famous […]

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US East Coast Risk of Tsunami & Earthquakes that Threaten NYC

US East Coast Risk of Tsunami & Earthquakes that Threaten NYC QUESTION:  Hey Marty, Thanks for all your insight the last few years on what the models are projecting for volcanic & seismic activity. As usual, you’re on the money. The forecast of events laying out to 2032 is really starting to add up in […]

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The Problem with EIA Shale Gas and Tight Oil Forecasts

The Problem with EIA Shale Gas and Tight Oil Forecasts Each year the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces forecasts of U.S. oil and gas production in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), which is widely viewed as an authoritative assessment of what to expect for future U.S. oil and gas output (the EIA prefers the […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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