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Roy Lichtenstein Woman With Flowered Hat 1963

Well, Dr. D is back again. You might want to sit down for this one.

Dr. D: In my last article I wrote about cows and hay and unrealistic estimates of production of the land. But surely that is all academic. What could possibly force Americans to once again eat by the sweat of their brow?Insider military think tank Deagel.com. The think tank that in 2015 estimated the death of 200M Americans by 2025.

Deagel – Forecast 2025

The Great Reset; like the climate change, extinction rebellion, planetary crisis, green revolution, shale oil (…) hoaxes promoted by the system; is another attempt to slow down dramatically the consumption of natural resources and therefore extend the lifetime of the current system. It can be effective for awhile but finally won’t address the bottom-line problem and will only delay the inevitable. The core ruling elites hope to stay in power which is in effect the only thing that really worries them.

The collapse of the Western financial system – and ultimately the Western civilization – has been the major driver in the forecast along with a confluence of crisis with a devastating outcome. As COVID has proven Western societies embracing multiculturalism and extreme liberalism are unable to deal with any real hardship. The Spanish flu one century ago represented the death of 40-50 million people.

Today the world’s population is four times greater with air travel in full swing which is by definition a super spreader. The death casualties in today’s World would represent 160 to 200 million in relative terms but more likely 300-400 million taking into consideration the air travel factor that did not exist one century ago. So far, COVID death toll is roughly 1 million people. It is quite likely that the economic crisis due to the lockdowns will cause more deaths than the virus worldwide.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Are Mainstream Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?

December 21, 2020

Why Are Mainstream Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?

Every end of the year, by the end of the year, we receive numerous estimates of global GDP growth and inflation for the following year. Historically, almost in all cases, expectations of inflation and growth are too optimistic in December for the following year.

If we look at the track record of central banks, it is particularly poor in predicting inflation while large supranational entities tend to err on the side of optimism in GDP estimates. The IMF or the OECD, for example, have been particularly poor at estimating recessions, but mostly accurate at making long-term trend estimates. Contrary to popular belief, it seems that most forecasts are better at identifying long-term economic dynamics than short term ones.

Forecasting is a dirty job, but somebody has to do it. Economic forecasting is exceedingly difficult because there are numerous factors that can drastically change the course of a global economy that is increasingly complex and subject to important uncertainties. However, macroeconomic forecasting is also essential to provide a frame of reference for investors and policymakers. It should not be considered the revealed truth nor entirely dismissed, just an important framework that allows us to at least identify the major points of discrepancy as well as the areas to look at for positive or negative surprises as the year unravels. Yes, macroeconomic forecasting is essential.

The first lesson is that independent forecasts are almost every year more accurate than those of supranational bodies and central banks. There is a logic behind it. Independent forecasters do not feel the political pressure to use a benign view of government policies in their estimates. This is one of the main reasons why investors increasingly use their own economic forecasting teams alongside truly independent firms…

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Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

October 15, 2020

Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame.

Cartoon of scientists and policymakers inspecting the inside of a black box that is outputting a policy document — Illustration by David Parkins

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates perfectly how the operation of science changes when questions of urgency, stakes, values and uncertainty collide — in the ‘post-normal’ regime.

Well before the coronavirus pandemic, statisticians were debating how to prevent malpractice such as p-hacking, particularly when it could influence policy¹. Now, computer modelling is in the limelight, with politicians presenting their policies as dictated by ‘science’². Yet there is no substantial aspect of this pandemic for which any researcher can currently provide precise, reliable numbers. Known unknowns include the prevalence and fatality and reproduction rates of the virus in populations. There are few estimates of the number of asymptomatic infections, and they are highly variable. We know even less about the seasonality of infections and how immunity works, not to mention the impact of social-distancing interventions in diverse, complex societies.

Mathematical models produce highly uncertain numbers that predict future infections, hospitalizations and deaths under various scenarios. Rather than using models to inform their understanding, political rivals often brandish them to support predetermined agendas. To make sure predictions do not become adjuncts to a political cause, modellers, decision makers and citizens need to establish new social norms. Modellers must not be permitted to project more certainty than their models deserve; and politicians must not be allowed to offload accountability to models of their choosing²^,³.

This is important because, when used appropriately, models serve society extremely well: perhaps the best known are those used in weather forecasting. These models have been honed by testing millions of forecasts against reality.

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The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions

December 31, 2018

The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions

Darts in a Blizzard

Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings. We bring words of doom and despair. We bring words of contemplation and reflection. And we also bring words of hope and sunshine.

Famous stock market investment adviser Field Marshal D. Trump [PT]

After all, the New Year’s nearly here. What better time than now to turn over a new leaf? New dreams, new directions, and new delusions, are all before us like a patch of ripe strawberries. Today’s the day to make a double-fisted grab for all of them – and more.

Rest assured, 2019 will be the year that everything happens precisely as it should. Some good. Some bad. Indeed, each day shall unfold before you in symbiotic disharmony. You can count on it.

But what else? What are the essential anticipations as we embark on a new voyage around the sun? What about stocks, the 10-Year Treasury note, gold, and everything else? Are we fated for complete societal breakdown? Will this be the year the Fed put finally bites the dust?

Today we attempt to answer these questions – and many others – with meekness and modesty. Predicting the future, like Fed monetary policy, is primarily guesswork. But unlike the Fed, we acknowledge we’re merely throwing darts in a blizzard.

By all accounts, our methodology is as unscientific as prophecy via tarotology. We shun common forecasting techniques for a conjectural approach. First, we engage all matters of fact, fiction, fakery, and fraud. Then, through induction, deduction, biased interpolation, gut check filtration, and metaphysical reduction, we arrive at precise, unequivocal answers.

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US East Coast Risk of Tsunami & Earthquakes that Threaten NYC

June 13, 2018

US East Coast Risk of Tsunami & Earthquakes that Threaten NYC

QUESTION: Hey Marty,
Thanks for all your insight the last few years on what the models are projecting for volcanic & seismic activity. As usual, you’re on the money. The forecast of events laying out to 2032 is really starting to add up in their interconnectivity. God help us all.
My question is regarding the mid-Atlantic ridge and the US East Coast continental shelf faults. We all know you chose Tampa over the Florida Atlantic Coast; should we be concerned about tsunamis & seismic activity along the eastern seaboard?

As always, thanks for everything you do. You’re my hero.
Cheers,

DP
ANSWER: That is actually a very good question. The 10 Biggest Earthquakes in History have ALLtaken place around the Pacific Rim of Fire – not in the Atlantic. Ideally, the next big one is interestingly due in 2021. The modern big quakes around the Pacific Rim have been:

1906 — San Francisco, California, Magnitude: 8. About 3,000 people died from the earthquake, on the San Andreas Fault, and resulting fire.
1923 — Tokyo, Japan, Magnitude: 7.9. One of the world’s most destructive earthquakes, more than 142,000 people died from collapsing buildings and the resulting firestorm. The quake also resulted in enormous tsunami waves.
1960 — Chile, Magnitude: 9.5. The largest earthquake ever recorded, the 1960 quake in Chile killed more than 1,600 people, with many of the deaths resulting from tsunamis. Waves reached 38 feet (11.5 meters) and carried debris as far as 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) inland.
1970 — Peru, Magnitude: 7.9. Approximately 66,000 people died, many from collapsed buildings and a post-earthquake avalanche.
2004 — Indonesia, Magnitude: 9.1. The third largest earthquake in the world in this century, the quake killed more than 227,000 people. Powerful tsunami waves crisscrossed the Indian Ocean and ravaged 12 Asian countries.
2011 — Japan, Magnitude: 9.0

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The Problem with EIA Shale Gas and Tight Oil Forecasts

April 3, 2018

The Problem with EIA Shale Gas and Tight Oil Forecasts

Each year the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces forecasts of U.S. oil and gas production in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), which is widely viewed as an authoritative assessment of what to expect for future U.S. oil and gas output (the EIA prefers the term “projection” to “forecast”). The EIA’s reference case is considered as the most likely scenario by industry, policy makers, and the media.

Considering that AEO reference case forecasts for shale gas and tight oil production in recent releases are remarkably optimistic when considered at the play-level in terms of well productivity, decline rates and prospective areas, I find this baffling and worrisome. It’s one thing for industry to paint a rosy picture of future production, but something altogether different when a government agency—tasked with providing the American public with objective information—does it.

AEO2018, for example, projects that shale gas production will be 130% higher in 2050 than in 2016, while tight oil production will grow by 74%, all at relatively low prices. This despite the fact that average production from individual wells falls 70–90% in the first three years and entire fields would decline 20-40% a year if new wells weren’t constantly drilled.

I recently assessed the EIA’s AEO2017 forecasts and assumptions for all major shale gas and tight oil plays using a proprietary commercial database of well production data—a database that the EIA itself uses for its own analysis. The study revealed that the EIA has overestimated the likely future production of shale gas and tight oil for most plays by a wide margin. This is a result of overestimating the size of the prospective area and hence the number of wells that can be drilled, and underestimating future declines in well productivity.

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