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Debate Over Target2 Continues: Twilight of the Euro

The Target2 debate continues. Eurointelligence Promotes Still More Silliness.

Eurointelligence blasts Faz for inaccuracies while spreading a pile of its own through the mouth of Mark Schieritz who says (translated) Do not be afraid of the trillions bomb.

Schieritz says: “The claims and the liabilities are fictional quantities. They exist virtually, in the balance sheets of central banks, not in the real world.”

One can stop there knowing full knowledge that Schieritz’s article is complete nonsense.

In the real world, Target2 imbalances are a measure of capital flight and loans that cannot be paid back. Even if there once was adequate capital for loans made by Italian banks, that capital vanished long ago.

Now, Italian depositors are very fearful of bail-ins and have pulled there money out of Italian banks.

That is the “real world”. Real people have real fears, and they should. Anyone holding money in Italian banks is a fool. I gave the same warning about Greece well ahead of capital controls. I make the same case again now, regarding Italy.

New Eurointelligence Nonsense

Here are a couple of new clips from Eurointelligence to discuss.

Against Target2 Hysteria

Martin Hellwig joins the debate on Frankfurter Allgemeine’s Sunday edition with a rejoinder to earlier columns by Hans Werner Sinn (which we covered) and Thomas Mayer (which we didn’t) on the danger to the Bundesbank from its near-trillion-euro claims on the eurosystem, and on the danger to the eurosystem from its near-half-trillion claims on the Bank of Italy. Hellwig argues that Sinn confuses deliberately with the smoke and mirrors of double-entry book-keeping, and is whipping up an unjustified panic over Target2.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Eurointelligence Displays Stunning Ignorance Regarding Target2

On two recent days, Eurointellence made stunningly bad comments about the escalating capital flight from Italy.

The latest Target2 Chart from the ECB is from May. Newer totals are available in some individual countries.

Debtors, primarily Italy and Spain, now owe Germany close to €1 trillion. Realistically, this money cannot and will not be paid back except by a central bank bailout.

Yet, Eurointelligence whitewashed this as no big deal.

July 9 – German Panic About Target2

The German debate on the balances of the Target2 payment clearing system continues to rage. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand, the Bundesbank’s Target2 credit with the Eurosystem was over €976bn at the end of June, and is within weeks of exceeding the symbolic figure of one trillion. On the other hand, Germans have taken notice of Paolo Savona’s plan B for Italy to exit the euro, which involved defaulting on Italy’s external debt including its Target2 balance which is under €481bn and growing. In this context Peter Boehringer, the AfD MP and chair of the Bundestag’s budget committee, has criticised Olaf Scholz in a budget debate for making no risk provisions for the possibility of default on Target2 claims. Frankfurter Allgemeine has also spoken to Christian Dürr, the deputy leader of the FDP group in the Bundestag, who says it’s about time the finance minister put on the political agenda the threat of a default on the German taxpayer. The position of the CDU group is that the situation will correct itself because of the coming end of the ECB’s asset purchase programme, and trust in the eurozone’s southern states returning as a result of the ongoing economic recovery.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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