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A question you always wanted to ask but you never had the time to: Is the “EROI” of energy studies the same as the R factor in epidemiology?

June 4, 2020

A question you always wanted to ask but you never had the time to: Is the “EROI” of energy studies the same as the R factor in epidemiology?

There is a certain logic in the way the universe works and so it is not surprising that the same models can describe phenomena that seem to be completely different. Here, I’ll show you how the same equations describe chain reactions that govern such different phenomena as the spread of an epidemic, the cycle of extraction of crude oil, and even the nuclear reaction that creates atomic explosions. All these phenomena depend on the efficiency of energy transfer, the parameter that’s known in energy studies as EROI (energy return on energy invested), related to the “transmission factor” (R) of epidemiological models. Above, a classic clip from Walt Disney’s 1957 movie, “Our friend, the atom.” 

You may be surprised to discover that epidemiological models share the same basic core of peak oil models. And it is not just about peak oil, the same models are used to describe chemical reactions, resource depletion, the fishing industry, the diffusion of memes on the Web, and even the nuclear chain reaction that leads to nuclear explosions. It is always the same idea: reinforcing feedbacks lead the system to grow in a frenzy of exploitation of an available resource: oil, fish, atomic nuclei, or people to be infected. In the end, it is perhaps the most typical way the universe uses dissipate potentials. As always, entropy rules everything!

Modeling these phenomena has a story that starts with the model developed in the 1920s by Vito Volterra and Alfred Lotka. They go under the name of “Lotka-Volterra” models or, sometimes, “Prey-Predator” models. This heritage is not normally recognized by people in the field of epidemiology, but the model is the same: the virus is a predator and we are the prey.

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Children With “Stealth” Coronavirus Infections Raise Fears Of ‘Community Outbreaks’

January 29, 2020

Children With “Stealth” Coronavirus Infections Raise Fears Of ‘Community Outbreaks’

Over the past week, as China has shared data about the novel coronavirus with foreign partners who quickly mapped its genome as the world races to develop a vaccine for the virus which can develop into a potentially deadly case of pneumonia. But several experts, including the drug company Novartis, warned that developing a vaccine might take a year.

In the meantime, epidemiologists are still struggling to understand the mysterious new virus (a virus that some fear was once studied as a potential biological weapon). So far, researchers have determined that the average incubation period for the virus is between five and six days. But as more cases are confirmed, researchers are finding a surprisingly large number of young people and children infected with the virus who display few or no symptoms – yet they’re still contagious.

Bloomberg shared the story of a 10-year-old boy from Wuhan whose entire family including his grandparents fell ill. Yet he displayed no symptoms, and wasn’t tested for the virus until both his parents insisted.

The boy’s case was first made public by the Lancet medical journal, which received attention from the international press after publishing research on the outbreak last week. Only five members of the family, including the boy, were infected during a trip to Wuhan. They infected a sixth relative after returning to their unnamed hometown.

A professor of microbiology who spoke with Bloomberg said the case of the 10-year-old boy is extremely concerning because it suggests that many of those infected with the virus might be able to evade typical screening techniques. This could easily fuel a community outbreak if the original case isn’t quickly discovered.

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