Home » Posts tagged 'energy market'

Tag Archives: energy market

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

Why Can’t Japan Kick Coal And Nuclear?

Why Can’t Japan Kick Coal And Nuclear?

Coal

Earlier this year we reported on a startling anomaly in the global energy market that even the experts couldn’t have predicted. Just one nation, alone against the greening tides, was turning back to coal–Japan. Now, half a year later, a newly released report shows that Japanese financial institutions have funneled US$92 billion into coal and nuclear development—a sum bigger than the gross domestic product of Sri Lanka – in the months between January 2013 and July 2018 alone.

Energy Finance in Japan 2018: Funding Climate Change and Nuclear Risk was commissioned by a climate change-focused non-government organization (NGO) called 350.org based in the United States. The study found that the Japanese finance industry gave US$80 billion in loans and underwriting services, the majority (50 percent) of which went straight to coal development, with the other half split between nuclear and other fossil fuel resource companies. The other US$12 billion went to bonds and shares in the same industries.

Among the 151 Japanese financial institutions analyzed in the Energy Finance in Japan 2018study, only 38 of them were not involved with coal or nuclear energy projects. A similar 350.org study from last year shows that Japanese insurance companies represent a large proportion of investors in domestic and international coal industries. Japan’s single biggest investor in coal for the five-year period studied was Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), followed by Nippon Life Insurance (NLI) and Nomura Holdings.

These numbers mark a stunning turnaround for Japan, which at one point was almost entirely dependent on nuclear, a far cleaner, more efficient energy source than coal. So why the about turn? There is actually a very clear source of Japan’s changing energy attitudes: the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why The Saudis Are Still Dominating Oil Markets

Why The Saudis Are Still Dominating Oil Markets

Bab El Mandeb Strait Tanker

Saudi Arabia is still clearly in control of the oil market.

The narrative that decisively took hold over the oil market in August was one of cracks in emerging market demand, concerns over the health of the global economy and fears over the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. Turkey’s currency crisis set off a slide in emerging market currencies, which will likely undercut demand this year. The IMF warned earlier this summer that the downside risks to the economy were growing, a rather prescient prediction. On the supply side of the equation, outages from Iran loom large.

But when it comes to physical barrels on the market, Saudi Arabia is still in the driver’s seat. “While fears of trade wars will continue to influence sentiment and shape price outcomes, it is the recent shifts in OPEC, and particularly its dominant player Saudi Arabia’s, output policy which has had the biggest impact on physical balances, prices and the term structure to date,” The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) wrote in a new report.

For the first few months of this year, Saudi Arabia maintained that the oil market was moving towards “rebalancing” with inventories in steady decline, but that there was more work to do. Saudi officials repeatedly stuck with the line that the OPEC+ agreement would not be altered before the end of the year and that they would continue to focus on bringing down inventories.

But the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the return of sanctions raised fears of a huge disruption in Iranian supply. Suddenly, the market looked very tight. Coming just a few weeks before the June OPEC+ meeting, the U.S.’ policy change was decisive.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Top 8 Unknowns In 2018’s Energy Markets

The Top 8 Unknowns In 2018’s Energy Markets

Refinery

It’s that time of year when we flip our calendars to a new start.

For pundits like me, it’s customary to make a listicle about the year to come – the usual predictions about things like OPEC, energy consumption, commodity prices and electric vehicle sales in China. But I decided to fold from that no-win game a while back.

In this age of disruption, there are too many unknowns to honestly predict what will happen next week, let alone 52 of them into the future. So instead of predicting outcomes, I’ve decided to list the top eight unknowns in energy markets for 2018

  1. Collateral disruption– Bringing on energy projects needs a lot of investment. The shakeup of capital markets is inflicting opaque, collateral disruption to the energy business too. Financial technologies are altering fund flows, market liquidity and access to capital. You thought self-driving cars were the only thing that could affect the oil business? How about robo-trading in debt and equity markets? Energy executives now need to be ‘fintech’ experts too.
  2. Bitcoin after-effects– Crypto-currencies like Bitcoin have seemingly little to do with energy, other than using absurd amounts of electricity. But the underlying blockchain technology will be transformative to financing, supplying and consuming primary energy resources. Bitcoin-mania is legitimizing and accelerating blockchain transaction platforms. Be prepared: Yet-to-be-understood changes to the energy business are coming faster than most people think.
  3. Cartel discipline– Some have suggested that North American oil companies should join the OPEC cartel. There is no need. Western investors joined OPEC in the second half of 2017 by restricting equity capital to oil producers. A new “show me your returns, not your production growth” mantra is restraining oil company spending, and therefore the US rig count. But will it be enough to reign in oil output in 2018? And which will crack first when a barrel of WTI oil hits $US 60/B: Investor discipline or OPEC discipline?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Geopolitical Consequences Of U.S. Oil Exports

The Geopolitical Consequences Of U.S. Oil Exports

Tanker

Two crucial things happened yesterday.

The first you may have noticed – oil prices moved back up.

As for the second, most so-called “experts” seemed to have missed.

See, the environment we’re seeing in energy markets is very different from what we saw only a week ago, when oil prices were also rising.

Because yesterday also saw – for the first time in world history – a reigning Saudi Arabian monarch in Moscow for talks with Russia’s head of state.

Historically, Russia has been much closer to Iran – Saudi Arabia’s main regional enemy.

Now, King Salman and President Putin are expected to endorse the plan to extend the OPEC-Russia deal to cut oil production and boost prices beyond the current end date of March 2018.

But that’s not all they’re going to talk about…

Other, more far-ranging matters will also be on the agenda, including the war in Syria.

And the catalyst for this huge shift in global geopolitics is surprisingly simple.

It’s all about America’s record-breaking oil exports…

Russia and Saudi Arabia Need Each Other… for Now

Now, there’s no indication that Russia and Saudi Arabia are on the road to an alliance on anything beyond oil prices.

Even then, that accord remains only as long as it is in the subjective interest of the parties.

Nonetheless, it is disquieting to Washington that any such prospects may be on the horizon… or that U.S. oil exports may be introducing a range of foreign policy concerns.

From an energy perspective, the main issue at hand is the OPEC-Russian deal to cap oil production, which is now almost certain to continue further than the agreed-on end date of March next year.

And after some concerns had been raised over individual OPEC members exceeding the quotas the deal assigned them, evidence is now emerging that the restraint is holding.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil prices fall on market relief over Saudi policy

Oil prices fall on market relief over Saudi policy

(Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Monday, with U.S. crude falling close to a nearly six-year low, as Saudi Arabia’s new King Salman moved to assuage fears of an unstable transition and any policy change in the world’s largest oil exporter.

Salman was quick to retain veteran Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi on Friday, in a message aimed at calming a jittery energy market following the death of King Abdullah last week.

March Brent crude LCOc1 was trading down 63 cents at $48.16 per barrel by 1106 GMT, wiping out modest gains made on Friday but off an early low of $47.57.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March delivery CLc1 was at $45.10 a barrel, down 49 cents. Front-month WTI touched an intraday low of $44.35, just above the $44.20 hit on Jan. 13, which was its lowest level since April 2009.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, led the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last November in a decision to keep oil production steady at 30 million barrels per day. This has added to a global supply glut that has more than halved prices since June.

“Oil markets will take comfort from the speed and stability of the succession process, and the announced pledge for continuity of policy,” said Majid Jafar, chief executive of Crescent Petroleum, a UAE-headquartered oil and gas producer focussed on the Middle East.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress