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Is A “Classic End-Of-Cycle Melt-Up” Imminent?

November 1, 2019

Is A “Classic End-Of-Cycle Melt-Up” Imminent?

  • Potential for the data deterioration theme to pause in the next quarter
  • Phase 1 US-China deal could pivot Manufacturers from inventory destocking to restocking
    • Key manufacturers talking about this potential on earnings calls
  • This underappreciated catalyst could cause a temp bounce in the economic data, lift stocks and curve steepeners even higher – classic end of the cycle melt up

WARNING: This note contains content more positive than the past 10 months and may not be suitable for readers who are expecting a perma bear.

I jest obviously but the theme all year has revolved around the idea of data deterioration.  The question from those tired of that notion is always “what would change your view” and the answer is consistently:

1) CB’s adding liquidity

2) China-US trade war progress

3) EU fiscal stimulus

For the first time all year, all three potential catalysts emerging at the same time which risks a Q4 melt up in risk assets and (I hope you are sitting down) an improvement in some of the economic data – mainly the manufacturing sector.

Central Banks pumping liquidity once again

This has been THE driver of the cyclical “up crash” first kicked off around October 8th  when Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed will soon announce steps to add to reserves over time through the purchases of T-bills.  Around the same time, as we discussed previously, many Fed officials began setting up the Oct cut which many thought was in question (Rosengren, Evans).

That powerful force of a coming Fed liquidity injection + another Fed cut to sustain the expansion caused a key reversal in the macro landscape where:

  • USD topped out and depreciated lower
  • Cyclical equities/commodities bottomed and started to break out higher 
  • Interest rates bottomed and started pricing out future Fed cuts
  • Yield Curves like 2s10s, that had been dormant, began to steepen       

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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