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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXCIX– Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness

Athens, Greece (1984). Photo by author.

 

I thought I would try something a little different in this Contemplation as I work on reading and summarising a chapter from a monograph–Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation. Today’s Contemplation is a Large Language Model Artificial Intelligence-generated summary of three specific questions pertaining to the longevity of ‘empires’, what causes complex societies to ‘collapse’, and what role resource finiteness would play in the longevity of a complex society.

My limited understanding of these computer programmes is that they are exposed to vast datasets of information and then collate this in a summary directed at the query posed. Based upon my personal reading and understanding of the topics I inquired about, the summarised answers below provide a very good synopsis and great starting point for anyone interested in exploring them.

As an aside, I have to wonder how influencing mainstream narratives (something our ruling elite are very good at via numerous avenues) impacts the datasets such programmes depend upon, leading to less-than-accurate summaries/answers to many questions and especially in the sociopolitical and socioeconomic realms–the two areas I would argue that the elite are most interested in ‘managing’ beliefs/perceptions about. But even within areas where the ruling elite may have little skin-in-the-game, and depending upon the prevalent paradigm of the moment, AI-generated responses can simply result in further echoing of the ideas/worldview that are dominant without much critical or outside-the-box thinking involved.

As an example of this is the answer provided to the final question where the impact of finite resources on the longevity of a complex society is proposed to be addressed via increased technological innovation–especially the adoption of ‘renewable’ energy products, given the recognition that our societies are heavily dependent upon hydrocarbons. As I and a few others argue, an increase in mass-produced, complex industrial technologies exacerbates the predicaments we face and are not in any way a ‘solution’. The mainstream zeitgeist, however, is and will probably continue to be that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can address and solve anything that comes our way. There is, after all, a lot of wealth to be made through the pursuit of these technologies and attempting to sustain the unsustainable so it’s important to get that story out and about–repeatedly–and accepted without much in the way of questioning or critical thought.

Our world ‘leaders’ are, if nothing else, fairly consistent in their machinations to ensure they continue to draw revenue streams through whatever means they can control, expand, and/or leverage. And the majority of people outside of the ruling class would prefer to continue and/or improve upon our business-as-usual trajectory rather than think about a less-than-appealing alternative. In fact, my personal experience suggests that the overwhelming majority of people don’t even think about these issues to any degree. But, yeah, let’s put all our eggs in the basket of ecologically-destructive, mass-produced industrial technologies that humanity is so fantastic at spitting out and slap ourselves on the back for our brilliance–Wise Human indeed!

Anyways, without further ado here are the responses I received on my three questions.


How long do empires tend to last?

The lifespan of empires can vary widely depending on numerous factors, including their political structure, economic stability, military power, cultural cohesion, and external pressures. Historically, empires have lasted anywhere from a few decades to several centuries. Here are some examples:

1. Short-lived Empires:
– The Mongol Empire (1206–1368): Lasted about 162 years at its peak, though its fragmentation began earlier.
– The First French Empire (1804–1814/1815): Lasted about 10 years under Napoleon Bonaparte.

2. Medium-lived Empires:
– The Aztec Empire (1428–1521): Lasted about 93 years before falling to Spanish conquistadors.
– The Ottoman Empire (1299–1922): Lasted about 623 years, though its peak power declined significantly after the 17th century.

3. Long-lived Empires:
– The Roman Empire (27 BCE–476 CE in the West, and until 1453 CE in the East): The Western Roman Empire lasted about 500 years, while the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire endured for nearly 1,500 years.
– The Chinese Empires (various dynasties): Some, like the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) or the Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE), lasted for centuries, with periods of fragmentation in between.

4. Factors Influencing Longevity:
– Strong Institutions: Empires with stable governance, legal systems, and administrative efficiency tend to last longer.
– Economic Prosperity: Wealth and trade networks can sustain an empire through challenges.
– Military Power: The ability to defend against external threats and maintain internal order is crucial.
– Cultural Cohesion: Shared identity, religion, or ideology can help unify diverse populations.
– Adaptability: Empires that adapt to changing circumstances (e.g., technological advancements, shifting trade routes) are more likely to endure.

On average, empires tend to last between 200 and 300 years, though this is a rough estimate. Many decline due to overexpansion, internal strife, economic decline, or external invasions.


What causes complex societies to collapse?

The collapse of complex societies is a multifaceted phenomenon that can result from a combination of internal and external factors. Historians, archaeologists, and sociologists have identified several recurring causes, often interrelated, that contribute to the decline and fall of complex societies. Here are some of the most significant factors:

1. Environmental Degradation and Resource Depletion
– Deforestation, soil erosion, and overfarming: These can lead to agricultural decline, food shortages, and famine.
– Water mismanagement: Overuse or poor management of water resources can cause droughts and desertification.
– Climate change: Natural shifts in climate (e.g., prolonged droughts, cooling periods) can destabilize societies reliant on specific environmental conditions.

– Example: The collapse of the Maya civilization has been linked to prolonged droughts and deforestation.

2. Economic Instability
– Overextension: Empires that expand too quickly may struggle to maintain control over distant territories, leading to economic strain.
– Resource inequality: Extreme wealth disparity can lead to social unrest and weaken the economic foundation of a society.
– Trade disruption: Loss of trade routes or economic partners can cripple a society’s economy.

– Example: The Roman Empire faced economic troubles due to overexpansion, inflation, and reliance on slave labor.

3. Political Instability and Governance Failure
– Corruption and inefficiency: Weak or corrupt leadership can undermine governance and public trust.
– Succession crises: Power struggles or unclear lines of succession can lead to civil wars or fragmentation.
– Overcentralization: Excessive reliance on a central authority can make a society vulnerable if that authority weakens.

– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was exacerbated by political instability and ineffective leadership.

4. Social Unrest and Inequality
– Class conflict: Extreme inequality between elites and commoners can lead to rebellion or civil war.
– Loss of social cohesion: Divisions along ethnic, religious, or cultural lines can weaken societal unity.

– Example: The French Revolution was fueled by widespread inequality and social discontent.

5. External Pressures
– Invasions and warfare: External attacks or prolonged conflicts can overwhelm a society’s defenses.
– Migration pressures: Influxes of migrants or refugees can strain resources and destabilize societies.

– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was hastened by invasions from Germanic tribes and the Huns.

6. Cultural and Ideological Decline
– Loss of shared identity: A decline in cultural or religious unity can erode societal cohesion.
– Resistance to change: Societies that fail to adapt to new ideas or technologies may stagnate and collapse.

– Example: The decline of the Byzantine Empire was partly due to cultural and religious divisions.

7. Epidemics and Disease
– Population decline: Pandemics can devastate populations, leading to labor shortages and economic collapse.

– Example: The Black Death in the 14th century contributed to the decline of feudal systems in Europe.

8. Technological and Military Stagnation
– Failure to innovate: Societies that fall behind in technological or military advancements may be overtaken by rivals.

– Example: The Aztec Empire was outmatched by Spanish conquistadors due to superior European technology.

9. Interconnected Crises (The “Perfect Storm”)
– Often, collapses result from a combination of the above factors rather than a single cause. For example:
– Environmental stress can lead to food shortages, which trigger social unrest and weaken the state, making it vulnerable to external invasions.

– Example: The Bronze Age Collapse (c. 1200 BCE) involved climate change, invasions, economic disruption, and political fragmentation.

Theories on Societal Collapse

– Joseph Tainter’s “Diminishing Returns of Complexity”: As societies grow more complex, the costs of maintaining that complexity (e.g., bureaucracy, infrastructure) eventually outweigh the benefits, leading to collapse.

– Jared Diamond’s “Five-Point Framework”: In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Diamond identifies environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and societal responses to problems as key factors.

Conclusion

The collapse of complex societies is rarely due to a single cause but rather a combination of environmental, economic, political, social, and external factors. Understanding these dynamics can provide insights into the vulnerabilities of modern societies and the importance of resilience and adaptability.


How will the finiteness of resources impact the longevity of complex societies?

The finiteness of resources is a critical factor that can significantly impact the longevity of complex societies. Throughout history, the availability and management of resources—such as food, water, energy, and raw materials—have played a central role in the rise and fall of civilizations. In the modern era, the finite nature of resources poses unique challenges due to global interconnectedness, population growth, and increasing consumption. Here’s how resource limitations could affect the longevity of complex societies:

1. Resource Depletion
– Non-renewable resources: Fossil fuels, minerals, and metals are finite and will eventually run out or become prohibitively expensive to extract. Societies heavily reliant on these resources (e.g., for energy, manufacturing, or technology) may face economic and social instability as supplies dwindle.
– Renewable resources: Even renewable resources like fresh water, fertile soil, and forests can be overexploited, leading to scarcity and environmental degradation.

Impact: Resource depletion can lead to economic collapse, social unrest, and conflict over remaining supplies, undermining the stability of complex societies.

2. Energy Transition Challenges
– Fossil fuel dependence: Many societies rely on fossil fuels for energy, transportation, and industry. Transitioning to renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind) is essential but requires significant investment, infrastructure, and time.
– Energy return on investment (EROI): As finite resources become harder to extract, the energy required to obtain them increases, reducing the net energy available to society.

Impact: A poorly managed energy transition could lead to energy shortages, economic decline, and geopolitical tensions, threatening the stability of complex societies.

3. Food and Water Scarcity
– Agricultural limits: Soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change can reduce agricultural productivity, leading to food shortages.
– Water stress: Overuse and pollution of freshwater resources can exacerbate water scarcity, particularly in arid regions.

Impact: Food and water shortages can trigger mass migration, social unrest, and conflict, destabilizing societies and straining global systems.

4. Economic Instability
– Resource-driven economies: Societies dependent on finite resources (e.g., oil-exporting nations) may face economic collapse as resources are depleted or demand shifts.
– Inflation and inequality: Scarcity of essential resources can drive up prices, exacerbating economic inequality and social tensions.

Impact: Economic instability can weaken governance, increase poverty, and lead to societal breakdown.

5. Technological and Innovation Limits
– Substitution challenges: While technology can mitigate some resource limitations (e.g., renewable energy, recycling), it may not fully replace finite resources or address all environmental impacts.
– Innovation bottlenecks: Developing and scaling new technologies requires time, investment, and resources, which may be constrained in a resource-scarce world.

Impact: Failure to innovate or adapt to resource constraints could lead to stagnation or decline in complex societies.

6. Environmental Degradation
– Pollution and waste: Overexploitation of resources often leads to environmental damage, such as pollution, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity.
– Climate change: Resource extraction and consumption contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, driving climate change and its associated risks (e.g., extreme weather, sea-level rise).

Impact: Environmental degradation can reduce the carrying capacity of ecosystems, making it harder for societies to sustain themselves.

7. Geopolitical Tensions and Conflict
– Resource competition: Scarcity of critical resources (e.g., water, oil, rare earth metals) can lead to geopolitical tensions and conflict between nations.
– Inequitable distribution: Resource-rich regions may face exploitation or intervention by external powers, while resource-poor regions may struggle to meet basic needs.

Impact: Resource-driven conflicts can destabilize regions, disrupt global trade, and threaten the longevity of complex societies.

8. Social and Cultural Responses
– Adaptation and resilience: Societies that prioritize sustainability, resource efficiency, and equitable distribution may be better equipped to handle resource limitations.
– Resistance to change: Cultural or political resistance to reducing consumption or adopting new technologies can hinder efforts to address resource scarcity.

Impact: Societal responses to resource constraints will play a key role in determining whether complex societies can adapt and endure.

Historical Precedents
– Collapse of the Roman Empire: Overexpansion, resource depletion (e.g., soil degradation), and economic instability contributed to its decline.
– Easter Island: Deforestation and overexploitation of resources led to societal collapse.

– Modern parallels: Current trends in resource depletion, climate change, and environmental degradation raise concerns about the sustainability of modern societies.

Strategies for Longevity

To mitigate the impact of finite resources and enhance the longevity of complex societies, the following strategies are essential:

1. Sustainable Resource Management: Prioritize conservation, recycling, and efficient use of resources.

2. Transition to Renewable Energy: Invest in renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

3. Technological Innovation: Develop technologies for resource efficiency, alternative materials, and environmental restoration.

4. Economic Diversification: Reduce reliance on resource-driven economies and promote sustainable industries.

5. Global Cooperation: Address resource scarcity and environmental challenges through international collaboration and equitable resource distribution.

6. Social Adaptation: Foster cultural and behavioral changes that prioritize sustainability and resilience.

Conclusion

The finiteness of resources poses a significant challenge to the longevity of complex societies. While resource limitations can lead to economic instability, environmental degradation, and conflict, proactive measures—such as sustainable resource management, technological innovation, and global cooperation—can help societies adapt and thrive. The ability to balance resource use with environmental and social needs will be critical in ensuring the long-term survival of complex societies in a resource-constrained world.


What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”


If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.

The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025

The Bulletin: February 6-12, 2025

CLICK HERE

 

The Crises Yet To Come

When efficiency becomes a problem: Jevons Paradox in the Age of AI – Conhecimento Hoje

Supercharging the Predicaments We Face

Please, be a NIMBY – by Elisabeth Robson

Nuclear Fusion Is Just More Bullshit

Break the Consumption Cycle

Why pervasive media propaganda is ultimately self-defeating and destructive to the political class that wields it

Solar Panels for Collapse, Are They Worth It? Here’s an Honest Answer.

Fiji Water Lawsuit Raises Concerns About Microplastics – Newsweek

The Empire Self-Destructs

Overshoot Deficit Disorder – George Tsakraklides

“Recycling” Makes Plastic Pollution Worse

The overshoot myth: you can’t keep burning fossil fuels and expect scientists of the future to get us back to 1.5°C

The end of the dollar has already begun – Collapse Life

The Biggest, Most Corrupt News Organization You Have Never Heard of

Report: Apple Ordered to Provide Gov’t Access to ALL User Data on the Cloud | Headline USA

The Grocery Store Hack That Helps You Avoid Ultra-Processed Foods

The Collapse of the US Elite – by Ugo Bardi

The world isn’t close to breaking free from coal — in some countries, demand for it is surging

Danger of Deep Worldwide Recession in 2025 – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

World War In the 2030s

299-The Arc Of Inevitability

Dr  William Rees   Our obsolescent brains The climate, economics and overshoot

The Daily: 10 February 2025 – By My Solitary Hearth

12 Simple Things That You Can Start Doing Right Now To Become More Independent Of The System

Not More But Better, Part 1

Earth’s water cycle is off balance for the first time in human history | Climate & Capitalism

Trump Says Talk Of Wanting Canada to Be A Part of US Is Serious | ZeroHedge

In Soviet Germany, the government protests YOU

 

If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running). 

If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing. 

Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99

Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps… 

https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US 

If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.

You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

The Bulletin: January 16-22, 2025

The Bulletin: January 16-22, 2025

Visualizing All Of Canada’s Cancelled Energy Projects | ZeroHedge

Geological Events Show the Difference Between Predicaments and Problems

The Everything Bubble Suddenly Feels Unstable

The War Behind The War: What World War III Is Really Being Fought Over | ZeroHedge

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Preventable Deaths And Vitamin D3 | ZeroHedge

Greece Calls On EU For Fast Response To Surging Energy Prices

Rare earth mining in Myanmar’s Chipwi region causes socio-economic decline and severe environmental damage – ENG.MIZZIMA.COM

Drill, Baby, Drill – Waking Up in the Age of Absurdity

Norway warns its oil and gas production is in decline

None Of These War Criminals Will Face Justice As Long As the US Empire Exists

Decoding the UN Sustainable Development Goals: Indoctrinating Your Children Into the New “Fake Sustainable” World Order – Global Research

Firecraft Guide Part I: Tindering the Flame

Climate, Net Zero and Other Words You Must Stop Using

Giant freshwater aquifer in southern Africa is under threat from mining

Greenland’s melting ice is clearing the way for a mineral ‘gold rush’

Is Digitization Catastrophic for Civilization?

Climate Fatigue: Why the Story of Saving the Planet Isn’t Selling | Art Berman

The Red Giant – The Honest Sorcerer

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The Imp with a Chainsaw – by Ugo Bardi – The Seneca Effect

How to Survive a Pre-Collapse Dystopia: a Conceptual Segmentation – George Tsakraklides

Resource Insights: Wishful thinking? Sweden building nuclear waste site to last 100,000 years

Trump To Declare National Energy Emergency | ZeroHedge

Questioning lithium-ion batteries, fire risks & hydrating dry regions

Extremes Become More Extreme, Then Revert to the Mean

Frightening Memories of Project Ice-worm: Militarization and the Future of the Arctic Region – Global Research

Trump, Musk, Gaza, the Rise of Totalitarianism and the End of the US Empire

Decisions, Decisions | Do the Math

Donald Trump Is The Empire Unmasked – by Caitlin Johnstone

After millennia as CO₂ sink, more than one-third of Arctic-boreal region is now a source

Heat waves could worsen as soil moisture changes, climate models reveal

Unprecedented winter storm paralyzes Gulf Coast with record-breaking snow even in Florida | CNN

‘Catastrophic’: Great Barrier Reef hit by its most widespread coral bleaching, study finds

Alberta government lifts ban on coal exploration in Eastern Slopes | CBC News

The Do It Yourself Decade

Direction of Global Crises to Depend on Trump’s Next Steps, Russia’s Lavrov Says | The Epoch Times

PJM Grid Declares “Max Generation Alert” As Polar Vortex Unleashes Mini Ice Age | ZeroHedge

All Lifeforms Are Worthless – George Tsakraklides

The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025

The Bulletin: January 9-15, 2025

The Falsification of Everything | how to save the world

Emissions Are SO Not the Only Problem with Cars

Rhyming History: Weimar Germany’s Hyperinflation

At least 6 dead, more than 300 000 without power as major winter storm sweeps through U.S.

Net Energy Cliff & the Collapse of Civilization

Quarter of Freshwater Animals Face Extinction, New Study Warns – Newsweek

A Nickel Rush Threatens Indonesia’s Last Nomadic Tribes and Its Forests, Fishermen and Farmers – Inside Climate News

Arresting and Killing Greenies: Targeting Climate Change Protests – Global Research

The Science of Anti-Russian Propaganda – by Glenn Diesen

Decoupling what!? – by Gunnar Rundgren

One Way or Another, the World is Headed for a Degrowth Future | by Doug Bierend

The UK’s Strange Collapse – John Rubino’s Substack

Trump’s Threats Against Greenland, Canada and Elsewhere Are All About Energy Interests – Global Research

Positioned For a Historic Crash – The Daily Reckoning

Natural Gas Production is Contracting

The blackouts are coming – by Elisabeth Robson

The Energy March of Folly | Art Berman

Government Spending Will Cause the Next Financial Crisis | Mises Institute

America’s Great Climate Migration Has Begun. Here’s What You Need to Know. | Columbia Magazine

From Crisis to Connection: Why Radio is the Lifeline You Need to Learn Now

#296: Predicament, not outcome | Surplus Energy Economics

Escobar: Empire Of Chaos, Reloaded | ZeroHedge

The Human Souffle – The Honest Sorcerer

Oh, YouWhat the world needs now is directions for reducing our dependence on technology

Grabbing Greenland’s Oil. But does it Exist? – by Ugo Bardi Mean THAT Democracy | how to save the world

The adverse, long-term health effects of wildfires

Have You Been Faked Out by the Panama-Canada-Greenland Syndrome? – Global Research

What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions?

Russia, Iran To Sign ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ Treaty This Week | ZeroHedge

Extreme rainfall leaves 10 dead in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil – The Watchers

Thrust Into Power: A Thought Experiment | how to save the world

Never Mind the Propaganda, the World Should Know About America’s Countless Wars – Global Research

Chapter 3 – How energy and natural resources inhibit growth

Going, Going…

Los Angeles burns: What you need to know

Credit Card Default Wave Hits U.S. Banks

2025: The Year the Federal Debt Bubble Bursts – International Man

Cool Nights Needed to Grow Potatoes Slipping Away

The Bulletin: November 7-13, 2024

The Bulletin: November 7-13, 2024

Thousands Of Californians Lose Power After PG&E Protects Grid As Wildfire Risks Soar | ZeroHedge

The Possible Relevance of Joseph Tainter – by Brink Lindsey

The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated | The Epoch Times

‘Ecosystems are collapsing’: one of Australia’s longest rivers has lost more than half its water in one section, research shows | Water | The Guardian

Do You Want Truth or Illusion?

Has the world ‘surrendered’ to climate change? These authors think so | CBC News

Here’s Why These Geopolitical and Financial Chokepoints Need Your Attention…

67 Reasons why wind turbines cannot replace fossil fuels | Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse

Adapting For the End of Growth

All States are Empires of Lies | Mises Institute

It Is Time We Educate Children About The Coming Collapse – George Tsakraklides

What Kind of Society Will We Have?

We Are On the Brink Of An Irreversible Climate Disaster

Trump’s Three Arrows

What You Need To Know About Preparing For Emergencies

Can We Escape Our Predicament? – The Honest Sorcerer

Science Snippets: Buildings Collapsing Due to Climate Change

Surviving the Apocalypse: A Practical Guide to Modern Risks

The Politics of Collapse: uncommon conversations for unprecedented times – Prof Jem Bendell

Microplastics Could Be Making the Weather Worse | WIRED

Nuclear electricity generation has hidden problems; don’t expect advanced modular units to solve them.

Trump Inherits Turd of an Economy – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Amsterdam shows us just how brazenly the media rewrites history

Global Food Prices Re-Accelerate For Second Month As Situation Remains ‘Sticky’ | ZeroHedge

‘Nothing grows anymore’: In Malawi, eating becomes a daily struggle due to climate change

Financial Collapse Within 18 Months

Why Don’t We Just Build More Nuclear?

Buzzkill: The Alarming Impact of Light Pollution on Honey Bee Health

Understanding Energy Use: The Challenge Of Substituting Electrification

The Bulletin: October 17-23, 2024

The Bulletin: October 17-23, 2024

The Federal Reserve and the Regime Are One and the Same | Mises Institute

Brace Yourselves: A Tsunami Approaches. “There is Something being Concocted in the Dens of Power” – Global Research

We’re Told This Is Progress, But It’s Actually Anti-Progress

The Long Shadow of the Tar Sands

Catastrophic Crop Failures In Morocco

Why Won’t We™ Change Direction?

The Next Wave(s) of Inflation – The Daily Reckoning

Many Cities are Facing a Horrific Future – by Matt Orsagh

Police escalate the British state’s war on independent journalism

Net Zero by 2050 is Garbage Weasel Speak

The Environment is the Economy, Stupid.

David Stockman on The Battle of The Liars… Trump Versus Harris and The Folly Of UniParty Economics

Isn’t It Obvious? – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack

Overshoot: Is Overpopulation Really the Issue?

Let’s Come Clean: The Renewable Energy Transition Will Be Expensive – State of the Planet

THE END OF THE US ECONOMIC AND MILITARY EMPIRE & THE RISE OF GOLD – VON GREYERZ

With Deceit Comes Blowback – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack

The Energy Transition Will Not Happen – by Chris Keefer

Ten Lessons on US Foreign Policy from Enough Already | Mises Institute

On the Road to the Seneca Cliff. Climate Skeptic Sites Removed from Search Engines

Cuba grid collapses again raising doubts about a quick fix

The Dollar and the Globalist Power Complex: Overcoming ‘Designer-Chaos’ at a Critical Moment for the Human Race – Global Research

The $100 Trillion Global Debt Bomb and Financial Shock Risk. | dlacalle.com

Canada: A Collapse Scorecard | how to save the world

Can You Even Survive a Global Famine? – by Jessica

In South Africa, water shortages are the new reality

From High Inflation to Hyperinflation: How Close Are We? – International Man

The Bulletin: September 19-25, 2024

The Bulletin: September 19-25, 2024

An Unprecedented Monetary Destruction Is Coming | Mises Institute

The Energy Collapse | Louis Arnoux – by Rachel Donald

North Carolina, Europe, Nigeria: Why everywhere seems to be flooding | Vox

“Help! My child is becoming right wing!”: Leading Berlin newspaper provides “tips for democratic parents” who are forced to deal with “undemocratic children”

EPA Scientists Faced Retaliation After Finding Harm From Chemicals, Reports Find — ProPublica

Europe Prepares For Hot War With Russia, US Readies For Hot War With China

Three Mile Island is reopening and selling its power to Microsoft | CNN Business

Well being: The Glyphosate Addiction

World War III Is “On” But the Empire Has Already Lost. An American Civil War Looms. Spiritual Transformation Is the Only Way to Prevent Extinction. – Global Research

This Is A New World Where The Most Powerful Players Are No Longer The Bankers, But Politicians, Their Deficits And Debts | ZeroHedge

2030: Our Runaway Train Falls Off the Seneca Cliff

The World is in Crisis – by Rachel Donald

“Game-Changer”: Global Mega Banks Prepare Major Support For Nuclear Power | ZeroHedge

American Psychological Association’s Children’s Literature: ‘Disinformation Can Be Spread Just By Asking a Question’

Daniel Lacalle: Prepare for “Unprecedented Monetary Destruction”

The US Government’s Debt Crisis: Why Bankruptcy Is Unavoidable and What It Means for You

Quantum CEO Claims the Shale Revolution Is Over | OilPrice.com

The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt? | The MIT Press Reader

What Cannot Continue Will Stop

Are You Ready For Collapse?

Putin Lowers Threshold Of Nuclear Weapons Use In Dramatic Warning Aimed At NATO | ZeroHedge

The Bulletin: August 8-15, 2024

The Bulletin: August 8-15, 2024

Introducing The Bulletin, a collation of recent articles focusing upon those predicaments flowing from the ongoing collapse of our global, industrialised complex society.

Coming Clean on Clean Energy: It’s a Dirty Business | RealClearWire

The Energy Debate: Fanboys, Fangirls, and the Real Cost of Pollution | Art Berman

More Bargaining And Hopium

Natural Farming Cannot Co-exist with GM Crops – Global Research

US Hints At Regime Change In Tehran If Israel Is Attacked | ZeroHedge

The coming Planetary Emergency and its consequences

In 2023 the world’s forests stopped acting as a carbon sink

Is The West’s Growing Oppression a Portent? | how to save the world

MM #11: Renewable Salvation? | Do the Math

Washington Further Escalates Its War On Dissent

The myth that renewables are cheap persists in part due to the flawed use of LCOE – Watt-Logic

Nobody Would Vote For Any Of This Bullshit Without Extensive Manipulation

The Dieselgate Scandal

The Ardent Pipe Dreams of American Voters – OffGuardian

Deep Sea Delusions

Off-grid: further thoughts on the failing renewables transition

Science Snippets: 2030 Is Still Too Soon

FOIA Files: How Feds, Press, and Academia “Coordinate” on Speech

Make Preparations – by Jordan Perry

The Empire Is The Real Enemy

#286: Whatever happened to progress? | Surplus Energy Economics

One Step Away From the Biggest Oil Shock in History – International Man

Trilaterals over Stockholm

It Became Necessary to Destroy the Global Economy to Save It

Russia ready to execute nuclear attacks on NATO targets, according to leaked documents

Report: 82% of Scientists Say Overpopulation is a Major Problem | by HR NEWS | Aug, 2024 | Medium

“An Intricate Fabric Of Bad Actors Working Hand-In-Hand” – So Is War Inevitable? | ZeroHedge

Peace Is Not On The Ballot In November

Low Tech Life | Kris De Decker – by Rachel Donald

The Population Problem: Human Impact, Extinctions, and the Biodiversity Crisis

July 5, 2024 Readings

July 5, 2024 Readings

Move Over, Disaster Capitalism–Make Room for Addiction Capitalism–Charles Hugh Smith

No Escape From Unchecked Government Spending and Deficits…Here’s The Proof–Crisis Investing

Doug Casey on Revisionist History and How the Good Guys Don’t Always Win

Houthi Attacks On Ships Soar Most This Year In June As Critical Maritime Chokepoint Ablaze In Conflict | ZeroHedge

Cat 4 Hurricane Beryl Heads Towards Texas, Threatening Major Oil Refineries | ZeroHedge

Craig Murray’s Campaign Against Empire – Read by Eunice Wong

Egypt Teeters On Brink Of Economic Ruin As Public Debt Mounts, Poverty Rate Soars | ZeroHedge

Green New Scam Is Dying – The Daily Reckoning

The Massive Harm of LNG Fracking, Tallied | The Tyee

The Status of U.S. Oil Production: 2024 Update Everything Shines By Dimming – resilience

The Systems Within–Earth4All

From Milk Runs to MAD to Madness | Mises Institute

Borneo’s Dayak adapt Indigenous forestry to modern peat management–MongaBay

Brace for Peak Impact | Do the Math

It’s Too Hot For Trains In Canada–Guy McPherson

This Civilization Is Deeply Unnatural–Caitlin Jonstone

The Media Don’t Get Degrowth–Degrowth Is The Answer

From Milk Runs to MAD to Madness | Mises Institute

The Awesome, Terrifying Power of the Press

Scientists And Farmers Restore Aztec-Era Floating Farms That House Axolotls–MongaBay

Rebuilding the flax / textile industry as a commons: Fantasy Fibre Mill

Reporters Blame “Right-Wing Media” for Their Failure to Disclose Biden’s Infirmity – JONATHAN TURLEY

An Empire Self-Destructs

An Empire Self-Destructs

Empires are built through the creation or acquisition of wealth. The Roman Empire came about through the productivity of its people and its subsequent acquisition of wealth from those that it invaded. The Spanish Empire began with productivity and expanded through the use of its large armada of ships, looting the New World of its gold. The British Empire began through localized productivity and grew through its creation of colonies worldwide—colonies that it exploited, bringing the wealth back to England to make it the wealthiest country in the world.

In the Victorian Age, we Brits were proud to say, “There will always be an England,” and “The sun never sets on the British Empire.” So, where did we go wrong? Why are we no longer the world’s foremost empire? Why have we lost not only the majority of our colonies, but also the majority of our wealth?

Well, first, let’s take a peek back at the other aforementioned empires and see how they fared. Rome was arguably the greatest empire the world has ever seen. Industrious Romans organized large armies that went to other parts of the world, subjugating them and seizing the wealth that they had built up over generations. And as long as there were further conquerable lands just over the next hill, this approach was very effective. However, once Rome faced diminishing returns on new lands to conquer, it became evident that those lands it had conquered had to be maintained and defended, even though there was little further wealth that could be confiscated.

The conquered lands needed costly militaries and bureaucracies in place to keep them subjugated but were no longer paying for themselves…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Falling From Grace

Falling From Grace

Years ago, Doug Casey mentioned in a correspondence to me, “Empires fall from grace with alarming speed.”

Every now and then, you receive a comment that, although it may have been stated casually, has a lasting effect, as it offers uncommon insight. For me, this was one of those and it’s one that I’ve kept handy at my desk since that time, as a reminder.

I’m from a British family, one that left the UK just as the British Empire was about to begin its decline. They expatriated to the “New World” to seek promise for the future.

As I’ve spent most of my life centred in a British colony – the Cayman Islands – I’ve had the opportunity to observe many British contract professionals who left the UK seeking advancement, which they almost invariably find in Cayman. Curiously, though, most returned to the UK after a contract or two, in the belief that the UK would bounce back from its decline, and they wanted to be on board when Britain “came back.”

This, of course, never happened. The US replaced the UK as the world’s foremost empire, and although the UK has had its ups and downs over the ensuing decades, it hasn’t returned to its former glory.

And it never will.

If we observe the empires of the world that have existed over the millennia, we see a consistent history of collapse without renewal. Whether we’re looking at the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire, or any other that’s existed at one time, history is remarkably consistent: The decline and fall of any empire never reverses itself; nor does the empire return, once it’s fallen.

But of what importance is this to us today?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alfred McCoy, Living in a Quagmire World

Alfred McCoy, Living in a Quagmire World

Americans have never liked to think of themselves as part of the West’s imperial history that began with the Roman empire and may now quite literally be ending, as historian and TomDispatch regular Alfred McCoy suggests, in a distinctly un-American moment. The author of a classic history of empire, To Govern the Globe: World Orders and Catastrophic Change, McCoy has previously suggested that, in symbolic terms, if Donald Trump were to win the 2024 presidential election (or even lose it and once again contest it, possibly, thanks to his most fervent followers, in an ominously well-armed fashion), he could prove to be the end of empire personified.

Certainly, as McCoy explains today, it’s hard not to imagine that, from Ukraine to Gaza to Asia, this country is on a dramatic imperial downward slide. His own findings only serve to reinforce a view taking root among America’s European and Asian allies that the United States, globally dominant since 1945 and triumphantly the lone superpower on Planet Earth in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is now experiencing an epoch-ending terminal failure. The global Pax Americana (that proved to have all too much war in it) is, it seems, crumbling amid two grim conflicts, one in Europe and the other in the Middle East, and a political and military stand-off with China that could, at any moment, take a turn for the worse.

And let me add: it’s strange to see the American Moment (and yes, historically speaking, I do think that should be capitalized!) potentially ending here at home with two elderly men locked in an electoral knife fight that could blow the American imperium sky-high from the inside out. Tom

…click on the above link to read the rest…

What the “Rules Based International Order” Really Means

What the “Rules Based International Order” Really Means


This map, from Multipolarista, shows the US-centred Empire bloc of nations (in red) that subscribe to the US-invented Rules Based International Order. The countries in green do not recognize that order, and they continue to support de facto a UN-centred international system governed by international law.

There was a meeting a couple of years ago between the US and China where the two sides — pro-Empire and pro-Multipolarity — each used their own coded language to express what they had been conditioned, very differently, to believe to be in the best interests of world order and security. Clinton Fernandez, an Australian professor and former intelligence officer, recounts the event in his book Sub-Imperial Power:

AT A HIGH-LEVEL SUMMIT between the United States and China in March 2021, the US Secretary of State said he was ‘committed to leading with diplomacy to advance the interests of the United States and to strengthen the rules-based international order’. The director of China’s Foreign Affairs Commission countered by saying that China and the international community upheld ‘the United Nations–centred international system and the international order underpinned by international law, not what is advocated by a small number of countries of the so-called rules-based international order’.

China was essentially saying that the ‘rules-based international order’ was simply a euphemism for the will of the (US) Empire, and that China would fiercely oppose that Empire in favour of an ‘international order’ underpinned by international law (ie governed, at least ostensibly, in the interests of the people, not that of corporate wealth and power, and based on bilateral negotiations between autonomous nations, not the edicts of Empire).

This is perhaps the ultimate expression of the 21st century’s greatest “clash of ideologies”, one that could quite conceivably end in nuclear annihilation…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Leaving Blobtopia

Leaving Blobtopia

“The vibe shift being witnessed is nothing more then a managerial class losing the mandate of heaven as they squander the inheritance of empire.” —Jim Sharp
    A nation can only take so much corruption, crime, and unreality.  ”We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality,” said Karl Rove, veteran blobster and advisor to George W. Bush, when he uttered those fateful words. Even political junkies forget the rest of what he said:

And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

Old Karl was being too polite, you understand. What he meant to say is: We’re gonna lay trip after trip on you, all of you smart-asses watching the political scene until your over-mis-educated Ivy League brains turn into something that resembles a patty-melt so that you’re lost in a fog of incoherent blabbery, parroting whatever nonsense we proffer as we asset-strip what’s left of Western Civ.

What they call “the cognitive infrastructure” of we-the-people has been twisted, crinkled, folded, looped, and twiddled until it’s nearer a state of criticality than the ten-thousand rusted-out bridges on our county roads. This week, the FCC board voted to adopt new rules to “prevent and eliminate digital discrimination.” Sounds great, huh? Reality check: I do not think that the words mean what you think they mean. They are, rather, an invitation to the rest of the US government — any malicious blob-driven agency — to meddle with the Internet, block content that they don’t like, and conduct mind-fuckery operations to their heart’s delight. Uh-oh, I think they just destroyed the Internet.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The World’s Top Industrial Countries Are in Treacherous Waters

Sometimes, after reading a slew of news articles from around the world, I feel confused and weary. But occasionally patterns seem to emerge. I say “seem” because the human brain is all too eager to see patterns where there are none (hence humanity’s fascination with false conspiracy theories). Nevertheless, these days I can hardly escape the sense that current events are accelerating toward . . . something troubling.

Of course, we all bring preconceptions to bear on new information, and those preconceptions tend to shape the patterns we see. My own preconceptions have emerged from a few decades of studying humanity’s systemic problems—climate change, resource depletion, pollution, economic inequality and fragility, authoritarianism, war, and so on—and how these evolved through many centuries up to the present in response to new energy sources and technological innovation. The cornerstone of my preconceptions is a limits-to-growth perspective that sees the last few decades of fossil-fueled rapid expansion of population and per-capita consumption as profoundly unsustainable, and the decades of the 2020s and 2030s as the likely turning point in humanity’s overall trajectory from rapid growth to just-as-rapid contraction.

So, I guess you could say I’m a short-term, big-picture pessimist. You can judge for yourself whether focusing that particular lens on the Rorschach inkblot of current events is helpful.

The world is a complex place, and some countries are always doing better or worse than others. But occasionally, as was the case with the Great Depression and World War II, the whole world seems to falter or erupt at once. If the pattern I think I see is really there, we may be approaching a similarly pivotal moment.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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