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Weekly Commentary: 2021 Year in Review
Weekly Commentary: 2021 Year in Review Books will be written chronicling 2021. I’ll boil an extraordinary year’s developments down to a few simple words: “Things Ran Wild”. Covid ran wild. Monetary inflation ran wild. Inflation, in general, ran completely wild. Speculation and asset inflation ran really wild. More insidiously, mal-investment and inequality turned wilder. Extreme […]
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – December 24, 2021
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – December 24, 2021 For the Week: The S&P500 rallied 2.3% (up 25.8% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.7% (up 17.5%). The Utilities were little changed (up 11.7%). The Banks gained 1.4% (up 34.1%), and the Broker/Dealers advanced 2.2% (up 29.5%). The Transports rose 2.3% (up 29.4%). The S&P 400 […]
Weekly Commentary: Trouble on the Horizon
Weekly Commentary: Trouble on the Horizon November 19 – Reuters (Francois Murphy and Paul Carrel): “Austria will become the first country in western Europe to reimpose a full COVID-19 lockdown, it said on Friday as neighbouring Germany warned it may follow suit, sending shivers through financial markets worried about the economic fallout. Europe has again […]
Weekly Commentary: Losing Control
Weekly Commentary: Losing Control Tesla’s market capitalization surpassed $1.1 TN this week, the first junk-rated company with a trillion-dollar valuation. Now the richest individual in the world, Elon Musk’s wealth this week reached a staggering $300 billion. The S&P500, Dow, Nasdaq100, and Nasdaq Composite ended the week at all-time highs. Microsoft retook the top spot […]
Weekly Commentary: A True Central Banker
Weekly Commentary: A True Central Banker Who can blame him? Certainly not me. October 20 – Financial Times (Martin Arnold and Guy Chazan): “Jens Weidmann has decided to step down after a decade as head of Germany’s central bank, only weeks after the country’s general election and shortly before a crucial decision on the future […]
Weekly Commentary: Controllable
Weekly Commentary: Controllable Now that was wild. Let’s start with the Chinese developers. Indicative of the more troubled companies, Kaisa Group bond yields surged to almost 51% in Wednesday trading, up from 36% to begin the week (20% to start the month). Yields closed the week at 44.7%. After beginning the week at 23.3% (October […]
Weekly Commentary: Contagion
Weekly Commentary: Contagion Another big miss for non-farm payrolls, with September’s 194,000 jobs gain less than half the 500,000 forecast. But with the Unemployment Rate down to 4.8% and Average Hourly Earnings up 4.6% y-o-y (not to mention almost 11 million job openings), there’s ample evidence that much of the labor market has turned exceptionally […]
Weekly Commentary: Dangerous Addiction
Weekly Commentary: Dangerous Addiction July 20 – Reuters (Karen Pierog): “Risk-off sentiment that drove Monday’s sell-off on Wall Street and rally in U.S. Treasuries widened credit spreads on corporate bonds to multi-month highs. The spread on the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index, a commonly used benchmark for the junk bond market, spiked from 318 […]
Weekly Commentary: Under Fire
Weekly Commentary: Under Fire The week had an ominous feel. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped another seven bps to 1.29% – completely disregarding much stronger-than-expected reports on consumer and producer prices. German bund yields fell another six bps to a three-month low negative 0.35%. Equities were down for the week in Europe, but the notable equities […]
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – May 21, 2021
Weekly Commentary: Just the Facts – May 21, 2021 For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 10.6% y-t-d), and the Dow declined 0.5% (up 11.8%). The Utilities added 0.4% (up 4.7%). The Banks fell 1.0% (up 35.1%), and the Broker/Dealers declined 1.2% (up 22.6%). The Transports sank 2.8% (up 23.7%). The S&P 400 Midcaps […]
Weekly Commentary: Un-Anchored
Weekly Commentary: Un-Anchored A big week on the inflation front. April CPI was reported up 0.8% versus estimates of 0.2%. And while the 4.2% y-o-y increase was partly a function of the year ago negative CPI prints, it’s worth noting CPI was up 2.1% over just the past four months. “Core” CPI increased a much […]
Weekly Commentary: Generational Turning Point
Weekly Commentary: Generational Turning Point There is an overarching issue I haven’t been able to get off my mind: Are we at the beginning of something new or in the waning days of the previous multi-decade cycle? May 5 – Wall Street Journal (James Mackintosh): “We could be at a generational turning point for finance. […]
Weekly Commentary: Peak Monetary Stimulus
Weekly Commentary: Peak Monetary Stimulus Not again. Bloomberg is referring to “the bond market riddle.” The Financial Times went with the headline, “US Government Bond Investors Left Bewildered by ‘Bonkers’ Market Move.” It’s been three weeks of declining Treasury yields in the face of robust economic data (and surging commodities prices!). Too soon to be […]
Weekly Commentary: Powell on Inflation
Weekly Commentary: Powell on Inflation The Treasury yield spike runs unabated. Ten-year Treasury yields rose another 10 bps this week to 1.72%, the high since January 23, 2020. The Treasury five-year “breakeven” inflation rate rose to 2.65% in Tuesday trading, the high since July 2008. The Philadelphia Fed’s Business Survey Prices Paid Index surged to […]
Weekly Commentary: Regime Change
Weekly Commentary: Regime Change Ten-year Treasury yields closed out a tumultuous week at 1.41% bps, pulling back after Thursday’s spike to a one-year high 1.61%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now up 49 bps from the start of the year and almost 100 bps (1 percentage point) off August 2020 lows. More dramatic, five-year yields jumped […]
