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Oil Market Hype And Crisis Signal Greater Troubles Ahead

Oil Market Hype And Crisis Signal Greater Troubles Ahead

Most people are not avid followers of economic news, and I don’t blame them. Financial analysis is for the most part boring and tedious and you would have to be some kind of crazy to commit a large slice of your life to it.

However, those of us who are that crazy do what we do (and do it independently) because underneath all the data and the charts and the overnight news feeds we see keys to future events. And if we are observant enough, we might even be able to warn people who don’t have the same proclivities but still deserve to know the reality of the world around them.

Most Americans and much of the rest of the planet probably was not aware of the recent oil producer’s meeting in Doha, Qatar this past Sunday, nor would they have cared. A bunch of rich guys in white dresses talking about oil production levels does not exactly spark the imagination. What the masses missed, though, was an event that could affect them deeply and economically for many months to come.

A little background highly summarized…

After the derivatives and credit crisis launched in 2007/2008 the Federal Reserve responded to disastrous levels of deflation with a fiat money printing bonanza. Everyone knows this. The problem was the central bankers never had any intention of actually using all that “cash” to support Main Street or the fundamentals of the economy.

Instead, they used their printing press and digital loan transfers to artificially re-inflate the coffers of banks and major corporations. It was a blood transfusion for vampires, if you will.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are The Saudis And Russians Deliberately Sabotaging Doha?

Are The Saudis And Russians Deliberately Sabotaging Doha?

The actions and intentions of Saudi Arabia and Russia—the two largest oil-producing nations attending the Doha meeting on 17 April—have dashed all hopes of any fruitful outcome. The most important meeting of the last three decades, which has promised to forge new friendships and a new cartel, is turning out to be the biggest farce, even before the curtain is raised.

All of this undermines the efforts of the smaller nations, which were hopeful of a production freeze from the meeting.

Instead, we’re looking at Russia, whose oil production is now at a 30-year high after the nation produced 10.91 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, according to Reuters. In fact, these output figures are second only to the record 11.47 million bpd Russia produced in 1987.

Related: Oil Sanctions Risk Pushing An Unstable North Korea Over The Edge

Saudi Arabia is also firmly back on its non-committal path, saying that it will go along with the production freeze if everyone else does, including Iran—of which there is no chance. Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman on 1 April told Bloomberg: “If all countries agree to freeze production, we’re ready. If there is anyone that decides to raise their production, then we will not reject any opportunity that knocks on our door.”

According to a report by Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital markets, the five nations shown on the chart below are at the maximum risk of a major crisis due to lower oil prices.

The chart shows the oil price levels required by respective nations to survive. “Our ‘fragile five’ states…were already facing severe political and security challenges when oil prices were above $100/bbl and the situation has grown far more grim as these countries have struggled to fund their state apparatuses and provide essential services,” the Financial Post quoted Croft as saying.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudis Retaliate To “Oil Freeze” Fallout: Ban Transport Of Iranian Crude In Territorial Waters

Saudis Retaliate To “Oil Freeze” Fallout: Ban Transport Of Iranian Crude In Territorial Waters

At first, when it announced the terms of its “oil freeze” agreement with Russia one month ago, Saudi Arabia seemed willing to grant Iran a temporary exemption from the supply freeze, at least until it recovers its pre-embargo production levels. That however changed on Friday when the country’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, shocked Saudi Arabia’s Arab allies in the Persian Gulf, telling Bloomberg his country would only join the freeze curbe Iran – and all other OPEC member nations – also joined.

Following the Friday announcement, yesterday Iran’s oil minister Zangadeh made it clear that the country rejects Saudi demands, and would continue ramping up production at will, in the process making the April 17 Doha meeting meaningless.

And then, in a new and unexpected retaliation by Saudi Arabia for Iran’s intransigence, moments ago the FT reported that Saudi Arabia has taken steps to slow Iran’s efforts at increasing oil exports, banning vessels that transport Iranian crude from entering their waters, according to traders and shipbrokers.

More details from FT:

Iranian vessels carrying the country’s crude are restricted from entering ports in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, according to a circular sent by a shipping insurance company to its members in February.

The notice said ships that have called to Iran as one of its last three ports of entry will also require approval from the Saudi and Bahraini authorities before entering their waters. Shipbrokers and traders have relayed the same messages since.

Iranian oil executives have expressed their concern about the message circulating in the market, saying it is only adding to problems they face in selling their crude.

Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, and The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) did not respond to requests for comment.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

John Kerry Makes Last Ditch Effort To Avert World War III As Saudis, Turks Prepare For Syria Invasion

John Kerry Makes Last Ditch Effort To Avert World War III As Saudis, Turks Prepare For Syria Invasion

Tomorrow, John Kerry will meet Sergei Lavrov and several of his other counterparts from Europe and the Mid-East in Munich in a last ditch effort to revive Syrian peace talks, which fell apart amid an intense Russian air assault on rebel positions in Aleppo.

For all intents and purposes, the rebels are surrounded. Initially, it appeared that the “moderate” opposition might be able to persist and bog down the Russians and the Iranians with the help of supplies from the US, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Those hopes faded over the past two weeks when Hezbollah advanced on Aleppo and ultimately encircled the city, cutting the rebels off from key supply lines and triggering a mass civilian exodus.

The talks in the Bavarian capital come at what is perhaps the most crucial point in the conflict to date. With the opposition on the ropes, it’s do or die time for Riyadh, Ankara, Doha, and the UAE. Either the Gulf monarchies send in ground troops to shore up the rebels or Hezbollah and the IRGC will overrun them in a matter of weeks – or perhaps even days.

Of course the opposition’s Sunni benefactors can’t exactly say they’re going into Syria to fight Iran and the Russians. Any ground incursion will be justified by the need to “fight ISIS” even though the Islamic State presence in Aleppo is markedly less pronounced than in other besieged urban centers like Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. Indeed, the effort is so transparent that even the mainstream media has been forced to acknowledge it. Here’s FT, for instance:

Saudi Arabia is discussing plans to deploy ground troops with regional allies, including Turkey, for a safe zone in Syria, in a last-ditch effort to keep alive a rebellion at risk of collapse as a Russian-backed offensive by Syrian regime forces encroaches on the northern province of Aleppo.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Putin Just Warned Global War Is Increasingly More Likely: Here’s Why

Putin Just Warned Global War Is Increasingly More Likely: Here’s Why

Vladimir Putin is basking in Russia’s triumphant return to the world stage.

What began with a land grab in Crimea and escalated with support for the separatists at Donetsk, culminated in Moscow’s dramatic entry into Syria’s protracted civil war.

To be sure, the deplorable (not to mention comically absurd) strategy adopted by the US and its regional allies in Syria set Putin up for success. The situation was highly exploitable by anyone that’s strategically minded and thanks to the convoluted set of alliances Washington has built with groups that later turned out to be extremists, Moscow gets to achieve its regional ambitions while simultaneously fighting terrorism. Meanwhile, Washington, Riyadh, Ankara, and Doha are left to look on helplessly as their Sunni extremist proxy armies are devastated by the Russian air force. The Kremlin knows there’s little chance that the West and its allies will step in to directly support the rebels – the optics around that would quickly turn into a PR nightmare.

All of this has provided the perfect backdrop for Putin to begin what’s amounted to a lecture tour on how to conduct foreign policy.

Soundbites have ranged from very serious commentary on why the West should not employ extremists to bring about regime change to comical jabs at the US and its allies who the Russian President last week accused of having “oatmeal brains” when it comes to Mid-East policy.

Speaking today at the International Valdai Discussion Club’s 12th annual meeting in Sochi, Putin delivered a sweeping critique of military strategy and foreign policy touching on everything from the erroneous labeling of some extremists as “moderates” to the futility of nuclear war.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

“Proxy” War No More: Qatar Threatens Military Intervention In Syria Alongside “Saudi, Turkish Brothers”

“Proxy” War No More: Qatar Threatens Military Intervention In Syria Alongside “Saudi, Turkish Brothers”

Earlier this week, Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir had the following message for Tehran:

“We wish that Iran would change its policies and stop meddling in the affairs of other countries in the region, in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. We will make sure that we confront Iran’s actions and shall use all our political, economic and military powers to defend our territory and people.”

In short, Riyadh and its allies in Doha and the UAE are uneasy about the fact that the P5+1 nuclear deal is set to effectively remove Iran from the pariah state list just as Tehran is expanding its regional influence via its Shiite militias in Iraq, the ground operation in Syria, and through the Houthis in Yemen.

Thanks to the fact that Tehran has more of an arm’s length relationship with the Houthis than it does with Hezbollah and its proxy armies in Iraq, the Saudis have been able to effectively counter anti-Hadi forces in Yemen without risking a direct conflict with Iran, but make no mistake, Sana’a is not the prize here. Yemen is a side show. The real fight is for the political future of Syria and for control of Iraq once the US finally packs up and leaves for good. Iran is winning on both of those fronts.

Over the last several weeks, we and others have suggested that one should not simply expect Washington, Riyadh, Ankara, and Doha to go gently into that good night in Syria after years of providing support for the various Sunni extremist groups fighting to destabilize the regime. There’s just too much at stake.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gulf Markets Melting Down: Saudi Arabia Plunges 7%, Dubai Sold

Gulf Markets Melting Down: Saudi Arabia Plunges 7%, Dubai Sold

Following the end of a horrible week for petroleum importers (not to mention shale producers) despite WTI briefly dipping under $40 (wasn’t this supposed to be great news for the US economy?) we have the start of a just as ugly week for the Persian Gulf oil exporters, whose Sunday market open can be described as a continuation of last week’s broad risk carnage, and where Saudi Arabia, until recently the region’s best performing market, is now down 10% for the year and down 30% compared to 12 months ago.

Appropriately enough following our overnight article lamenting the death of the Petrodollar, the WSJ opens with a description of “stock markets in the petrodollar-dependent Persian Gulf tumbled Sunday to multi-month lows, spooked by sharply lower oil prices and a global equities selloff on growing concerns about China’s economy.”

Some examples:

Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s biggest market, led the regionwide decline to finish the day nearly 7% lower. Dubai stocks dropped by a similar percentage, while regional peers Abu Dhabi and Doha’s markets both fell 5% each to extend recent losses.

Dubai stocks lost 7% to end at 3451.48, while its neighbor in the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi’s market, dropped 5% to 4286.49. Qatar’s main stocks benchmark finished down 5.3% at 10,750. The Gulf stock markets are open for trading Sunday through Thursday.

Investors took a lead from Saudi Arabia, the region’s biggest economy. Its stocks closed 6.9% lower at 7463.32 after Fitch Ratings on Friday downgraded its outlook for the kingdom to negative from stable because of weaker oil prices.

The Saudi economy is heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for 90% of fiscal revenues, 80% of current account revenues and 40% of the gross domestic product, analysts at Fitch noted.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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