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What Does the Fed See Heading at Big Banks? Blocks Share-Buybacks, Slaps on Dividend Caps Due to “Economic Uncertainty” and “Cushion Against Loan Losses”

October 2, 2020

What Does the Fed See Heading at Big Banks? Blocks Share-Buybacks, Slaps on Dividend Caps Due to “Economic Uncertainty” and “Cushion Against Loan Losses”

My Big-Four Bank Index already got crushed back to 2004 level.

After the stock market closed today, the Federal Reserve announced that “in light of the economic uncertainty,” and to provide “a cushion against loan losses,” and to support lending, it would extend for another quarter, so through December 31, the blanket prohibition on share buybacks by large banks (banks with over $100 billion in assets). For the same reasons, it would also cap dividend payments tied to a formula based on recent income.

The Fed said that according to a stress test and additional analysis, whose results were released in June, “all large banks were sufficiently capitalized” to deal with the fallout from the Pandemic.

But it appears that the Fed now thinks the banks need to be even more sufficiently capitalized, so to speak, to deal with whatever may be coming at them. And the Fed will conduct another stress test later this year.

Many banks had voluntarily halted share buybacks in March as all heck was breaking loose. In June, following the release of the stress test results, the Fed imposed the buyback prohibition for the third quarter, now extended through the fourth quarter.

So, let’s put it this way: As far as the Fed is concerned, this crisis is not a blip, and banks need to be prepared for what’s coming at them. The large banks have already set aside billions of dollars each to deal with the fallout on their loan books. But apparently, the Fed thinks there’s more to come.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Primacy Of Income

November 17, 2018

The Primacy Of Income

The Era Of Gains is over

Ever since the central banks became serial bubble blowers twenty years ago, household wealth has mostly been driven by asset price inflation:

But this has been a quixotic pursuit. Created by pulling tomorrow’s prosperity into today, these asset price bubbles are unsustainable, and invariably suffer violent corrections at their end.

So far, the central banks have responded to these corrections by simply doing more of the same, just at greater and greater intensity. To keep the current Everything Bubble going, the world’s central banks have not only had to more than quintuple their collective balance sheets, but have recently had to resort to the extreme (desperate?) measure of injecting the greatest amount of liquidity ever in 2016 and 2017.

History has shown us that the height an asset bubble reaches is proportional to the damage it wreaks when it bursts. Applying this logic, the coming pop of the Everything Bubble will be devastating.

So devastating that analysts like John Hussman forecast a 0% (or worse) total market return over the next twelve years:

Moreover, the primary driver and supporter of asset price appreciation over the past seven years, central bank easing, is now gone. For the first time since the GFC, the collective central bank liquidity injection rate (the solid black line in the below chart) is now net zero.

And plans to tighten much further from here have been clearly committed and communicated to the world:

As a consequence, we fully expect yesterday’s capital gains to become tomorrow’s capital losses.  What goes up on thin-air money comes down with its removal.

And while this is going on, interest rates are suddenly exploding higher around the world after spending a decade at all-time historic lows:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Harvard Professors Expose ‘The Real Problem With Stock Buybacks’

July 8, 2018

Harvard Professors Expose ‘The Real Problem With Stock Buybacks’

Many critics say buybacks crimp investment. But the real problem is that – unlike dividends – buybacks can be used to systematically transfer wealth from shareholders to executives..

There is a problem with share buybacks – but it isn’t the one many critics and legislators are obsessed with.

Some critics claim that repurchases starve firms of capital they could invest for the long term, harming workers to enrich shareholders. Democratic Sens. Chuck Schumer of New York and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin agree and have introduced legislation to “rein in” corporate stock buybacks. The bill would give the Securities and Exchange Commission authority to reject buybacks that, in its judgment, hurt workers. It also would require boards to “certify” that a repurchase is in the “best long-term financial interest of the company.” Sen. Baldwin has introduced another bill, co-sponsored by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), that goes even further: It bans all open-market repurchases.

This criticism of buybacks is flawed; there is simply no evidence that the overall volume of dividends and repurchases is excessive. The real problem with buybacks is that they tend to enrich executives at the expense of shareholders. Fortunately, there is a simple remedy.

Flawed argument

Buyback critics say S&P 500 firms don’t have enough investment capital because dividends and repurchases routinely exceed 90% of their net income. Between 2007 and 2016, for example, these companies distributed $7 trillion to shareholders, mostly via repurchases. That was 96% of total net income. But our research shows that public firms recover from shareholders – directly or indirectly – about 80% of the capital distributed via repurchases. Shareholders return this capital by buying newly issued shares, mostly from employees paid with stock, but also directly from firms. Taking into account all types of equity issuances, net shareholder payouts in S&P 500 firms during the decade 2007-2016 were only about $3.7 trillion, or 50% of total net income.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Majors Sacrifice Production To Protect Dividends

September 26, 2015

Oil Majors Sacrifice Production To Protect Dividends

The French oil company Total released a downward revision to its production forecast, lowering its target from 2.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2017, to 2.6 mb/d, a sign that low oil prices continue to cut into long-term oil production for even the largest companies.

Total’s CEO said part of the reason for the more modest target was spending cuts, amid falling oil prices. Lower investment will lead to lower output in the future. The other part of the problem is delays to projects that the company already has in the works.

It is no secret that low oil prices are eating into the resources that major oil companies have to use at their disposal. Less revenue from lower oil prices leaves less capital to invest. But, the oil majors do have choices, and for now they are choosing to find savings in their capital spending budgets in order to protect their dividend policies. Dividends are seen as sacred, something that cannot be touched for fear of losing their sterling reputation with major investors. That means that even profitable oil projects get the axe in order to protect payouts to shareholders.

Related: VW Scandal Bad News For Diesel

There are few exceptions to this approach, save for Italian oil giant Eni, which became the first oil major to slash its dividend in March of this year. “We are building a much more robust Eni capable of facing a period of lower oil prices,” CEO Claudio Descalzi said at the time, explaining the company’s decision to trim its dividend. Eni’s share price plummeted in the days following the news, but has not performed noticeably worse than its peers in the intervening months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

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