Australia’s monthly diesel imports reached a record of 2,360 ML (495 kb/d) in June 2021. While it is common for imports to vary from month to month there is a long term increasing trend. This is caused by diesel consumption on a continuing growth path while Australian refineries are shutting down.
Fig 1: Diesel imports timeline – by country
We see that under the increasing trend there are other structural changes taking place. Imports from Japan went down.
Fig 2: Diesel imports from Japan dropped by 75%
Japan’s refining capacity and throughput is on a long-term decline
Fig 3: Japan’s refining sector (sixth largest in world)
The reasons for the reduction in oil demand are Japan’s declining and aging population, high energy efficiency measures and an expanding fleet of hybrid and electric vehicles. Refinery throughput dropped by 550 kb/d in 2020 due to Covid.
In February 2021 there was an earthquake which hit 20% of Japan’s refining capacity
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-refinery-operations-fuji-oil-co-idUSKBN2AF0YZ
Fig 4: Diesel imports from North East Asian countries and China’s refinery in Brunei
Australia’s declining diesel imports from Japan and to a certain extend from South Korea have been replaced by imports from China, Taiwan and a brand new Chinese refinery in Brunei, thereby creating new dependencies in a concerning context:
7/9/2021 Taiwanese air force responds to incursion by 19 Chinese warplanes as Beijing stays silent
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-07/chinese-warplanes-enter-taiwanese-air-space/100439132
Fig 5: Diesel imports from China
Fig 6: Diesel imports from Brunei
More details are in this post:
25/3/2021 Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative
https://crudeoilpeak.info/brunei-peak-oil-golden-opportunity-for-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative
Let’s zoom into the last 4 ½ years:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
