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Despite Soaring Prices the Oil Industry Stands To Lose

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The days of Big Oil are numbered. Contrary to modern beliefs it is not going to be killed by the environmental movement, court decisions or conscious investment choices. There is a more hideous process in the background working against not only the most polluting business ever, but its modern adversaries as well. They just don’t know it… yet.

People always had to spend energy in order to get more energy. They had to do the hard work on the fields — sometimes involving animal work — to grow food which then provided energy in return. This was not much different to any other business involving energy today: now, instead of pulling a plow, you have drill holes, install pipes and power up your pumps to get oil; or mine, smelt, manufacture, deliver then install solar panels and wind turbines to do the other hard jobs for you.

On thing remains certain: it always costs energy to get more energy, and just like in case of any other kind of investment, you have to earn (much) more than what you have invested before your equipment fails due to ageing.

The problem, rarely recognized by many, is that this ratio of energy invested vs energy harvested is not fixed. At all. And no, it’s not improving. Despite all technological advancements it is getting worse with every passing year, with every new oil well drilled and — as you will see it later — with every new solar panel or wind turbine installed. As the authors wrote:

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Does Subjective Valuation Mean Arbitrary Valuation?

Why do individuals pay much higher prices for some goods versus other goods? The common reply to this is the law of supply and demand.

However, what is behind this law? To provide an answer to this question economists refer to the law of diminishing marginal utility.

Mainstream economics explains the law of diminishing marginal utility in terms of the satisfaction that one derives from consuming a particular good.

For instance, an individual may derive vast satisfaction from consuming one cone of ice cream.

However, the satisfaction he will derive from consuming a second cone might also be big but not as big as the satisfaction derived from the first cone.

The satisfaction from the consumption of a third cone is likely to diminish further, and so on.[1]

From this, mainstream economics concludes that the more of any good we consume in a given period, the less satisfaction, or utility, we derive out of each additional, or marginal, unit.

It is also established that because the marginal utility of a good declines as we consume more and more of it, the price that we are willing to pay per unit of the good also declines.

Utility in this way of thinking is presented as a certain quantity that increases at a diminishing rate as one consumes more of a particular good. Utility is regarded as a feeling of satisfaction or enjoyment derived from buying or using goods and services.

According to the mainstream way of thinking, an individual’s utility scale is wired in his head. This scale determines for the individual whether he will purchase a particular good. The valuation scale is given and there is no explanation on how it was established.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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