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Rob Kirby-U.S. Dollar Rejection to Accelerate

ROB KIRBY – U.S. DOLLAR REJECTION TO ACCELERATE


Returning SBTV guest, Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics, had a though-provoking conversation with us – he questioned the ridiculousness that the US has never had a failed bond auction given the poor fundamentals of the US dollar, even as de-dollarization sentiments are accelerating.

Discussed in this interview: 
02:07 Fed unwinding balance sheet to pre-QE levels is a pipe dream
06:19 Ridiculous that the US has never had a failed bond auction
10:15 US shale oil industry could be soaking up unwanted dollars
12:48 De-dollarization: Foreigners do not want dollars
20:31 Energy independence? US still needs Saudi oil
22:18 Oil is the main sustenance for the US dollar
22:45 The ridiculous paper gold market
26:21 World does not want dollar-denominated debt

Russia To Reduce US Dollars In National Wealth Fund As Putin’s De-Dollarization Continues

Russia To Reduce US Dollars In National Wealth Fund As Putin’s De-Dollarization Continues 

Russia’s de-dollarization effort is full steam ahead, in line with President Putin’s commitment to reduce the country’s vulnerability to the continuing threat of US sanctions.

Crossing the wires early Wednesday morning, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev, was quoted by Reuters as saying the Russian sovereign wealth fund will reduce US Dollars and is considering adding Chinese yuan. 

  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS SHARE OF US DOLLARS IN NATIONAL WEALTH FUND WILL BE REDUCED 
  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS INCLUSION OF OTHER FOREIGN CURRENCIES INCLUDING YUAN IS BEING CONSIDERED
  • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS FINANCE MINISTRY PLANS TO CHANGE NATIONAL WEALTH FUND’S FX STRUCTURE IN 2020 

Kolychev said the change to the foreign exchange structure of the wealth fund would occur in 2020.

Ukraine and Russian-backed rebels begin troop withdrawal in eastern regions

Last month, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin told the Financial Times that the country would continue down the path of de-dollarization and begin trading some oil transactions in Euros and roubles.

“We have very good currency, and it’s stable. Why not use it for global transactions?” Oreshkin said in a recent interview with the FT.

 “We want (oil and gas sales) in roubles at some point,” he said.

Despite less than 5% of Russia’s $687.5 billion in annual trade being with the US, it remains that over half of that trade still relies on the dollar, according to Bloomberg figures.

US sanctions have been very selective as of recent, specifically targeting Gazprom, the country’s gas giant. Sanctions have banned any US company from supplying Gazprom with equipment.

Russia’s desire to abandon the dollar is a trend that continues to gain momentum and could be fully realized by the mid/late 2020s.

Our Currency, Your Problem

Our Currency, Your Problem

“Major movers” such as China, Russia and the European Union have a strong “motivation to de-dollarize,” said Korin, co-director at the energy and security think tank, on Wednesday.

“We don’t know what’s going to come next, but what we do know is that the current situation is unsustainable.”

–  Anne Korin, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

Irrespective of where you reside in the world, chances are you feel some sense of unease, a nagging concern for the future and a deep instinctual understanding that an era you knew and navigated your entire life is slipping away and won’t be coming back.

We’ve been witnessing widespread protest and unrest across countries with distinct political and economic systems, such as Hong Kong, France, Chile, Spain, Ecuador, Lebanon and Venezuela just to name a few. Those with vested interests and an ideological solution to sell insist it’s all because of socialism, capitalism or some other ism, but the truth is this goes far deeper than that. What’s actually happening is the geopolitical and economic paradigm that’s dominated the planet for decades is failing, and rather than address the failure in any real sense, elites globally are have decided to loot everything they possibly can until the house of cards comes crashing down.


This chart is almost as disturbing as the charts of negative yielding debt.
The entire financial system is a farce and a fraud. It’s all smoke and mirrors, a coverup machine for elitist looting.

Despite people with vested interests reassuring you this is normal, it is not. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1189919094331588608 …


 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The monetary lessons from Germany

The monetary lessons from Germany 

Germany suffered two currency collapses in the last century, in 1920-23 and1945-48. The architect of the recovery from the former, Hjalmar Schacht, chose to cooperate with the Nazi successors to the Weimar Republic, and failed. In that of the second, Ludwig Erhard remained true to his free market credentials and succeeded. While they were in different circumstances, comparisons between the two events might give some guidance to politicians faced with similar destructions of their state currencies, which is a growing possibility.

Introduction

Let us assume the next credit crisis is on its way. Given enhanced levels of government debt, it is likely to be more serious than the last one in 2008. Let us also note that it is happening despite the supposed stimulus of low and negative interest rates, when we would expect them to be at their maximum in the credit cycle, and that some $17 trillion of bonds are negative yielding, an unnatural distortion of markets. Let us further assume that McKinsey in their annual banking survey of 2019 are correct when they effectively say that 60% of the world’s banks are consuming their capital before a credit crisis. Add to this a developing recession in Germany that will almost certainly lead to both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank having to be rescued by the German government. And note the IMF recently warned that $19 trillion in corporate debt is a systemic timebomb, and that collateralised loan obligations and direct exposure to junk held by the US commercial banks is approximately equal to the sum of their equity.

Then we can say with some confidence that a major credit crisis is developing, and that it will almost certainly be far greater than Lehman.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Song Hongbing’s “Currency Wars” – a review

Song Hongbing’s “Currency Wars” – a review 

A revolutionary book from China, where it became a bestseller and is hushed up in Europe for (un)known reasons

Did you know that the FED is actually a private bank and still has the right to issue dollars? Did you know that for over 200 years private bankers have been controlling inflation and deflation, causing crises and even determining world history? Or do you really believe that history is a chaotic process, a melting pot of coincidences, independent decisions by politicians, insane ideologies and carefully planned strategies? Consider the crises in South Korea (1997), Argentina (1998-2002), Greece (2009) and many others in modern world history. Who did the citizens of the affected countries blame for the crisis? Not only their government, but also the international bankers, for whom the governments of the countries affected by the crisis were only a springboard. Would you like to know how these bankers manage to be so powerful and control demand for money almost everywhere in the world and thus control societies? It’s not that complicated and you don’t have to know anything about the economy: just read “Currency Wars” by Song Hongbing. 

It is not a novelty (already published in 2006), but it throws a whole new light on the issues that are tricky today: Currency wars and financial crises. Everyone is asking today: will the yuan strengthen and the dollar weaken? What about the euro? Lagard’s election of the head of the ECB has buried the hope for a stronger euro that was associated with the candidacy of Weidmann – a well-known hawk in financial policies. If she continues to weaken the euro in this way, will interest rates in the euro zone slide so low that pensioners and savers will slowly but surely lose their money? Probably. It’s time for “shearing sheep” as Song Hongbing calls such moments in history (crises, expropriations, etc.). We, the people, are these sheep.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All Money is Backed Even Today!

All Money is Backed Even Today! 

QUESTION:  Hi AE, et al. Your blogs not only inform, but are actually entertaining as they give most of us a point of view we’ve never before contemplated.
My question….you have stated numerous times that one of the reasons the Roman government survived for 100’s of years is because they simply created currency, as needed, instead of borrowing (gov’t bonds) as they do today. But their currency was mainly silver, which possessed at least some intrinsic value, as opposed to today’s digital, key-stroke variety.
The only public figure I can think of, with whom I would entrust such easy access, might be Thomas Jefferson. Human nature being what it is, corruption would be as inevitable as it is today.
To many of us, currency without some intrinsic value, just doesn’t make sense. Too much temptation. Would love to hear a more fulsome reply, with your thoughts on this subject. All of us here deeply respect what you are doing.

Thanks.
HS

ANSWER: All currencies today are still backed and are not intangible. Now, that statement may provoke thousands of emails. But the value of any currency has NEVER been its intrinsic value even throughout history. Proof of that statement is the fact that the surrounding economies to the Roman Empire imitated the gold and silver coinage of Rome for a single reason — the coins were accepted and regarded as more valuable than their intrinsic value simply in metal content.

Here is an imitation of a gold aureus of Rome struck in India. The weight of the gold was even greater than that minted in Rome. India routinely imitated Roman coinage from the reign of Tiberius (14-37 AD) to Gordian III (238-244 AD). Obviously, India had gold but the coinage of Rome carried a premium. There would have been no other reason to imitate Roman coinage if the monetary system was purely intrinsic.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

De-Dollarization: Europe Joins the Party

De-Dollarization: Europe Joins the Party

The ongoing “World War of Currencies”, as the German journalist Daniel D. Eckert called it, the battle for the future of the world monetary system is not a shallow action film but more like Game of Thrones – a complex series with hundreds of actors and locations, stretching over decades and demanding full concentration from the viewer.

The bottom line is that what has been true for decades still applies. The US dollar continues to enjoy the confidence of markets, governments, and central banks. But faith in the US dollar weakens a little every year. Europe, China, Russia and many small countries set new initiatives every year to make themselves independent. And gold, too, plays a major role in this slow departure from the US dollar. But for the world financial system, none of their currencies offer a viable, fully-fledged alternative to the US dollar yet, which is why any news of the death of the US dollar is definitely exaggerated.

Europe’s Small Uprising

Since the Greek crisis of 2012, the American media have often given the impression that the EU and the euro have already broken up or are about to break up. This is not the case. Twenty years after its creation in 1999, the euro area is larger than ever. Of course, nothing is perfect in the EU. The debt problems of the southern states have hardly improved. The structure of the euro zone itself is also often criticized and described as being in need of renovation.

Against this backdrop, the celebrations to mark the 20th anniversary of the euro were not particularly large and pompous. But there was a lot of talking going on.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Currency Which Expires – That’s the Solution – Or Just Cancel it all?

Currency Which Expires – That’s the Solution – Or Just Cancel it all? 

Back during the Great Depression, there were people who theorized that gold hoarding was preventing economic recovery. There is always this same theory that people who save hoarding their money and are not spending it results in the lack of a recovery suppressing demand. This theory has been around for a very long time. It assumes a recovery is always blocked by people hoarding their money and saving for a rainy day.

Back during the American Civil War, the federal government issued paper currency for the first time after the Revolution. Much of this currency paid interest. Some were in the form of virtually circulating bonds with coupons for the interest payments. Some were backed by gold. Others offered a table on the reverse providing a schedule. The interest baring notes remained valid currency, but the interest expired within a specific time period. Hence, one would redeem the note since it would no longer pay interest beyond a specific date.

The rumbling behind the curtain I am hearing is a growing idea of making the currency in Europe simply expire. I have explained before that in Europe currency routinely expires – even in Britain. The United States has never canceled its currency so a note from the Civil War is still legal tender. But that is not the case in Europe.

Europeans are accustomed to having their money simply expire. This is not limited to paper currency. They also cancel the coins. The proposal being whispered in the dark halls of Europe is that perhaps the way to impose negative rates to force people to spend is to just cancel all the currency and authorize only small notes for pocket change. They want everyone to be forced to use bank cards and this is the new theory to revitalize the economy.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Cuts Required Reserve Ratio Releasing $126BN In Liquidity; Yuan Surges

China Cuts Required Reserve Ratio Releasing $126BN In Liquidity; Yuan Surges

As had been widely previewed in China’s official financial press in recent days, on Friday the PBOC announced it would cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) for all banks by 0.5% effective Sept. 16 (and by 1% for some city commercial banks, to take effect in two steps on Oct. 15 and Nov. 15), releasing 900 billion yuan ($126 billion) of liquidity, helping to offset the tightening impact of upcoming tax payments.

While today’s rate cut was more than the previous cuts in January and May, which released 800 billion yuan and 280 billion yuan, respectively, the PBOC stated that “China won’t adopt flood-like monetary stimulus” and that they will continue “prudent” monetary policy to “keep liquidity at (a) reasonably ample level” and will “strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment” which is basically gibberish for it will do whatever it sees appropriate.

With the Chinese economy slowing drastically in recent months, with various economic indicators at multi-decade lows, the RRR cut was aimed at supporting demand by funneling credit to small firms and echoes the earlier cuts this year. Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, China’s economy softened substantially in August after poor results in July, and will likely deteriorate further in the remainder of the year. Trade tension between China and the U.S. expanded onto the financial front recently after China allowed the currency to decline below 7 a dollar, prompting the U.S. to name it a currency manipulator.

Anticipating cries of foul play from Trump’s twitter account which is just minutes away from unleashing hell at the Fed for not doing what China is doing, the cut “doesn’t reflect an aggressive easing,” said Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao. “In fact, China has recently massively tightened property financing. Hence this is still a re-balancing – to lower the funding costs for the manufacturing sector but tighten liquidity in the property sector due to asset bubble concerns.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflationary Financing and GDP

INFLATIONARY FINANCING AND GDP

This article demonstrates that only government borrowing in the US and UK drives GDP growth. This surprising conclusion is confirmed by long-run statistics. GDP does not represent economic progress, nor does it include the expansion of activity in the non-financial private sector, because that marries up with larger trade deficits, which are excluded from GDP. These findings have important implications for how the global downturn will be reflected in national statistics for the US and UK and the eventual prospects for the dollar and sterling.

Introduction

We tend to think of a nation’s accounts as being split between government and the private sector. It is for this reason that key tests of a nation’s economic sustainability and prospects for the currency are measures such as a government’s share of a nation’s economic output, and the level of government debt relative to gross domestic product.

While there is value in statistics of this sort, it is principally to give a quick overview in comparisons with other nations. For a more valuable analysis it is always worthwhile following different analytical approaches in assessing the prospective evolution of a currency’s future purchasing power.

Bald comparisons between government and non-government activity are a bad indicator of the true position. A more practical approach would admit that government finances are inextricably linked with the private sector. As Robert Louis Stevenson might have put it, a public servant is a Mr Hyde, who is a non-productive cost on productive society, while being a Doctor Jekyll spending his salary into the private sector as a consumer and contributing to a nation’s production in a demand role. The source of Mr Hyde’s income is the production of others, and increasingly his pay is made up by the debasement of everyone’s currency. Governments also spend money acquiring private sector goods and services, further distorting the overall picture. It all takes some untangling, a long way beyond a simplistic or conventional approach.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Globalization Just Peaked

Globalization Just Peaked

Joan Miro The farmer’s wife 1923

In Jackson Hole on Friday, Bank of England’s outgoing governor Mark Carney talked about a Synthetic Hegemonic Currency (SHC) that the world ‘must’ create, and I thought: that sounds as creepy as anything Halloween. Now, Carney is a central banker as well as a former Giant Squid partner, hence a certified cultist, but still.

He even mentioned Facebook’s Libra ‘currency’ as some sort of example for something that should replace the US dollar internationally. And that replacement is allegedly needed because countries are hoarding dollars. And/or “protecting themselves by racking up enormous piles of dollar-denominated debt.” Whichever comes first, I guess?!

I’ve read quite a few comments on Carney’s speech, but far as I’ve seen they all ignore one aspect of it: the current shape and form of globalization. See, Carney can see only one thing: more centralization, more things moving more in the same direction. Remember, he’s the man who with Michael Bloomberg in 2016 wrote “How To Make A Profit From Defeating Climate Change”. Aka things are worth doing only if they make you richer.

It’s a state of mind that works fine when you’re inside a system and an echo chamber, when you’re a central banker or a corporate banker. But there’s nothing that indicates it’s a useful state of mind when the system you’re serving must undergo change. What is as true when it comes to climate change as it is for changing the entire global economy. Carney’s got blinders on.

World Needs To End Risky Reliance On US Dollar: BoE’s Carney 

Carney [..] said the problems in the financial system were encouraging protectionist and populist policies. [..] Carney warned that very low equilibrium interest rates had in the past coincided with wars, financial crises and abrupt changes in the banking system.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Difference Between Hyperinflation and Currency Inflation

Difference Between Hyperinflation and Currency Inflation 

QUESTION: What is the difference between asset inflation and hyperinflation? I believe you are saying that from Jan 2020 we will see inflation which I understand to be asset inflation?
Thanks
FL

ANSWER: Asset inflation is typically a reflection of a decline in the value of the currency, but this can be 50% over the course of one to two years. Hyperinflation typically occurs when confidence in the government itself completely collapses. This is usually in a peripheral economy or often in times of war or major domestic revolution, as was the case with the Continental Currency in the United States and the Assignats of the Revolutionary government in France. Asset inflation can be also caused by an investment boom concentrated within a single sector such as the Dot.com Bubble. The typical definition of hyperinflation is when prices rise by more than 50% per month over a period of time.

Then there is DEMAND inflation, which is typically one of two aspects. It can come in the form of a hot item like Pet Rocks, Cabbage Patch Dolls, etc. The second aspect is a shortage of something such as wheat or corn and the demand forces the price to rise.

Why the Dollar Rules the World — And Why Its Reign Could End

Why the Dollar Rules the World — And Why Its Reign Could End

President Donald Trump wants a lower US dollar. He complains about the over-valuation of the American currency. Yet, is he right to accuse other countries of a “currency manipulation”? Is the position of the US dollar in the international monetary arena not a manipulation in its own right? How much has the United States benefitted from the global role of the dollar, and is this “exorbitant privilege” coming to end? In order to find an answer to these questions, we must take a look at the monetary side of the rise of the American Empire.

Trump is right. The American dollar is overvalued. According to the latest version of the Economist’s “ Big Mac Index,” for example, only three currencies rank higher than the US dollar. Yet the main reason for this is not currency manipulation but the fact that the US dollar serves as the main international reserve currency.

This is both a boon and a curse. It is a boon because the country that emits the leading international reserve currency can have trade deficits without worrying about a growing foreign debt. Because the American foreign debt is in the country’s own currency, the government can always honor its foreign obligations as it can produce any amount of money that it wants in its own currency.

Yet the international reserve status comes also with the curse that the persistent trade deficits weaken the country’s industrial base. Instead of paying for the import of foreign goods with the export of domestic production, the United States can simply export money.

American Supremacy

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Getting to a Special State of Ugly

Getting to a Special State of Ugly

There are certain phrases – like “trust me” or “I got this” – that should immediately provoke one’s suspicion.  When your slippery contractor tells you, “trust me, your kitchen renovation will be done before Christmas,” you should be wary.  There’s no way it’ll be done until late spring.

Or when your incompetent client says, “I won’t be needing your services at this time, I got this.”  You should expect a panicked phone call at 5pm on Friday.  “This is way more than I can handle,” your client will say, “take care of it.”

On Monday, when the sky was falling, and there was much weeping and gnashing of teeth, the Chinese yuan weakened to above 7 per dollar for the first time in over a decade.  This prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to waft out a suspicious phrase of his own.  He called China a “currency manipulator.”

Mnuchin’s logic, as far as we can tell, is that China manipulated their currency because their central bank didn’t adequately intervene in foreign exchange markets to prop up the yuan.  Conversely, direct intervention into markets, to maintain a centrally planned price that’s acceptable to Mnuchin, is not currency manipulation.  Go figure!

On Tuesday, to restore confidence in the yuan, and refute accusations of being a malevolent currency manipulator, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a plan to price fix the yuan.  Specifically, the PBOC will sell 30 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) of offshore bills in Hong Kong on August 14.  This move is designed to drain liquidity offshore, thus strengthening the yuan against the dollar.

Why bother?

Cooperative Currency Debasement

The world, circa 2019, is a fabricated reality.  Debt, piled upon debt, piled upon debt, ad infinitum, has erected a financial order that’s at perilous odds with the underlying economy.  Central bankers attempt to manipulate fake money and fake foreign exchange rates to keep the debt pile from cascading down.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: “Hot Money” Watch

Weekly Commentary: “Hot Money” Watch

In the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Monday daily currency value “fixing,” the yuan/renminbi was set 0.33% weaker (vs. dollar) at 6.9225. Market reaction was immediate and intense. The Chinese currency quickly traded to 7.03 and then ended Monday’s disorderly session at an 11-year low 7.0602 (largest daily decline since August ’15). While still within the PBOC’s 2% trading band, it was a 1.56% decline for the day (offshore renminbi down 1.73%). A weaker-than-expected fix coupled with the lack of PBOC intervention (as the renminbi blew through the key 7.0 level) rattled already skittish global markets.  

Safe haven assets were bought aggressively. Gold surged $23, or 1.6%, Monday to $1,441, the high going back to 2013 (trading to all-time highs in Indian rupees, British pounds, Australian dollars and Canadian dollar). The Swiss franc gained 0.9%, and the Japanese yen increased 0.6%. Treasury yields sank a notable 14 bps to 1.71%, the low going back to October 2016. Intraday Monday, 10-year yields traded as much as 32 bps below three-month T-bills, “the most extreme yield-curve inversion” since 2007 (from Bloomberg). German bund yields declined another two bps to a then record low negative 0.52% (ending the week at negative 0.58%). Swiss 10-year yields fell two bps to negative 0.88% (ending the week at negative 0.98%). Australian yields dropped below 1.0% for the first time.  

It’s worth noting the Japanese yen traded Monday at the strongest level versus the dollar since the January 3rd market dislocation (that set the stage for the Powell’s January 4th “U-turn). “Risk off” saw EM currencies under liquidation – with the more vulnerable under notable selling pressure. The Brazilian real dropped 2.2%, the Colombian peso 2.1%, the Argentine peso 1.8%, the Indian rupee 1.6% and the South Korean won 1.4%. Crude fell 1.7% in Monday trading. Hong Kong’s China Financials Index dropped 2.5%, with the index down 4.4% for the week to the lowest level since January. European bank stocks dropped 4.1%, trading to the low since July 2016.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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