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Capital Flows–Is a Reckoning Nigh?
CAPITAL FLOWS – IS A RECKONING NIGH? Borrowing in Euros continues to rise even as the rate of US borrowing slows The BIS has identified an Expansionary Lower Bound for interest rates Developed economies might not be immune to the ELB Demographic deflation will thwart growth for decades to come In Macro Letter – No 108 […]
The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency
The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market “panic window” is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central […]
Does the Market Need a Heimlich Maneuver?
Does the Market Need a Heimlich Maneuver? For all we know, the panic selling is Wall Street’s way of forcing the Fed’s hand: stop with the rates increases already or Mr. Market expires. Markets everywhere are gagging on something: they’re sagging, crashing, imploding, blowing up, dropping and generally exhibiting signs of distress. Does the market […]
Real Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Is Pointing To An Early 80s Style Meltdown
Real Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Is Pointing To An Early 80s Style Meltdown Canadian mortgage credit growth is falling, but how bad is it in real terms? People are comparing today’s low growth numbers to the mid-1990s. While there are some parallels, it more accurately resembles the early 1980s. Mortgage credit growth, when adjusted for […]
US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls
US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls A Movie We Have Seen Before – Repatriation Effect? There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad […]
IMF Stress Tests Find $280 Billion Black Hole In Chinese Banks’ Capital
IMF Stress Tests Find $280 Billion Black Hole In Chinese Banks’ Capital The IMF released a new analysis on the instability stability of the Chinese financial system. Speaking to the media in an online briefing, some of the insights from Ratna Sahay, deputy director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, hardly advanced our […]
Moving Closer to the Precipice
Moving Closer to the Precipice Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Falter The decline in the growth rate of the broad US money supply measure TMS-2 that started last November continues, but the momentum of the decline has slowed last month (TMS = “true money supply”). The data were recently updated to the end […]
Canada due for debt crisis and recession, economist argues
Canada due for debt crisis and recession, economist argues Credit growth has to stop at some point, and then economy shrinks, argues Steve Keen Finance Minister Bill Morneau has just delivered a budget that will put Canada deeper in debt. A Forbes columnist argues that puts Canada on track for a credit crisis. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian […]
US Money Supply and Debt – Early Warning Signs Remain Operative
US Money Supply and Debt – Early Warning Signs Remain Operative Still Slowing Down Year-end distortions have begun to slowly come out of the data, and while broad true US money supply growth remains fairly brisk, it has begun to slow again relative to January’s y/y growth rate, to 7.8% from 8.32%. So far it […]
