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Barclays Vows To Stop Financing Oil Sands Projects

Barclays Vows To Stop Financing Oil Sands Projects

Barclays on Wednesday said it would no longer provide financing to oil sands companies or oil sands projects and tightened conditions for thermal coal lending in an updated policy, which fell short of announcing overall pledges or targets in funding oil and gas.

In the annual report for 2022 published today, the UK-based banking giant vowed not to provide financing for any oil sands projects, compared to a previous policy which stated that it would only provide financing to oil sands exploration and production clients that had projects to materially reduce their overall emissions intensity.

In coal lending, Barclays now aims to phase out financing to clients engaged in coal-fired power generation in the EU and OECD by 2030, compared to phasing out such lending only to clients in the UK and the EU in the previously announced policy.

Commenting on Barclays’ new targets, Jeanne Martin, Head of Banking Programme at ShareAction, said in a statement, “Disappointingly, despite not having published a new oil and gas policy for the last three years, the bank’s fracking policy remains unchanged and there is no mention of new oil and gas. This means Barclays continues to be out of step with current minimum standards of ambition within the industry.”

Pressured by ESG trends and shareholders, other banks have already started to announce cuts to lending to the oil and gas industry.

At the end of last year, two prominent banks in Europe vowed to significantly cut exposure to the fossil fuels sector. Credit Agricole, the largest retail lender in France, said in early December that it targets to have no new financing granted for oil extraction projects by 2025, and to cut its oil exploration and production exposure by 25% by 2025 compared to 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

“There Are Going To Be Shocks” – Barclays CEO Warns Another Financial Crisis Is Likely

“There Are Going To Be Shocks” – Barclays CEO Warns Another Financial Crisis Is Likely

Barclays CEO Jes Staley took a few days off from his battle to save Europe’s last functional global investment bank to travel to Davos this week, where he participated in a handful of interviews with Bloomberg and CNBC, and offered an interesting – if slightly self-serving – prediction about whether the unprecedented levels of debt rattling around the global financial system will result in another crisis like what happened ten years ago.

Staley

While he believes another great financial crisis is more or less inevitable, Staley insisted that, this time around, his industry wouldn’t be the cause. In fact, it might just be a buffer against the worst of the fallout. Because global banks have shrunk their balance sheets since the crisis (largely at the behest of regulators), they could end up shielding the global economy when credit markets – which have been fueled in part by non-bank lenders (i.e. shadow banks) – seize up.

“This time, there’s a chance the banks will be the buffer, as opposed to the cause” of the crisis, Staley, who has been the British bank’s chief executive officer since 2015, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Echoing a warning that has been featured in these pages more than once (and as recently as last week when we wrote that “An Unexpected Development Could Crush The Leveraged Loan Market”), Staley cited the flow of credit into collateralized loan obligations as a sign of the growing risks in the credit market, and pointed to the freeze-up in high-yield issuance in December as an indication of what a future “credit shock” could look like.

But destabilizing credit risks aren’t confined to corporate balance sheets. The growing sovereign debt burden could also become a problem.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Multiple Online Banking Systems Go Down in the UK

Multiple Online Banking Systems Go Down in the UK

Payment chaos: For bottom-line-obsessed bank executives, IT systems are an expense to be slashed. The results are in.

Internet banking has become a crisis-prone business in the UK, as the online platforms of big banks suffer regular outages and other forms of IT disruption.

Friday morning, the online systems of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Ulster Bank and Natwest — all part of the RBS Banking Group — crashed in unison, leaving millions of customers unable to pay bills or view their balance on their online and mobile accounts. The group has 19 million customers in the UK and Republic of Ireland and 5.5 million active mobile app users.

After around five hours of chaos, the RBS Group announced that the problems had been resolved. The failure had apparently been caused by a “technical glitch” — a word that is being used with increasing frequency by high-street lenders — in a regular update to their firewall. The bank emphasized that it was an “access issue” and there is no evidence that customer data was compromised. But then, it would say that!

On Thursday, it was the turn of the UK’s largest bank, Barclays, whose website and telephone banking service crashed for around seven hours, leaving frustrated customers locked out of their online accounts.

Fed-up customers took to social media to vent their anger, with some complaining that they were unable to access their accounts not only through the Internet platform but also ATMs. Barclays has around 24 million UK customers, though it’s not clear how many of them were affected by the outage.

The bank told customers that they should still be able to make payments to existing payees through mobile banking, though new payees weren’t possible due to the incident. It also claimed that payments into accounts were unaffected by the issues.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Say Goodbye To Cheap Oil… For Now

Say Goodbye To Cheap Oil… For Now

Eagle Ford rig

Oil prices will be much higher over the next few years than previously thought, according to a new report from Barclays.

The investment bank significantly raised its pricing forecast for 2020 and 2025 in its annual medium-term oil report. Barclays expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in 2020, up from a previous estimate of $55, while prices may average $80 in 2025, up from $70 previously.

The bank noted that the market is dramatically different than it was at this point last year when it issued its previous medium-term report. U.S. shale drillers are maintaining capital discipline, which could lead to lower than expected production levels. OPEC and Russia have demonstrated resolve and laid the groundwork for long-term market management, which could keep supply off the market for years to come.

Also, the U.S. has deployed an aggressive sanctions campaign against Iran and even Venezuela, measures that should translate into more than a million barrels of per day of supply losses. And finally, “several key OPEC producers are at risk of being failed states,” Barclays concluded.

But that does not mean that the world is set to suffer from supply shortages. “Prices could reach $80 and higher in the short term, but these price levels have reawakened the industry’s animal spirits,” Barclays said. “In our view we are not on the cusp of another boom cycle in oil prices because of an impending ‘supply gap.’”

Any near-term price spike will be driven by sentiment and temporary rallies, rather than a fundamental gap in supply. “Though we expect that a price range above $80 will become the new norm next decade, our market balances do not justify those price levels in the next one to two years,” Barclays argued. “There are many other possible reasons to be bullish during that time frame, but the ‘supply gap’ is not one of them.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil

The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil

Oil tanker

Oil prices could rise due to the “perfect storm of stagnant supply, geopolitical risk, and a harsh winter,” according to an April 12 note from Barclays.

Geopolitical events specifically could help keep Brent above $70 through April and May, which comes on the back of a substantial decline in oil inventories.

The investment bank significantly tightened its forecast for Venezuelan production, lowering it to 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), down sharply from its previous forecast of 1.4 mb/d. That helped guide the bank’s upward revision for its price forecast for both WTI and Brent in 2018 and 2019, a boost of $3 per barrel.

The flip side is that the explosive growth of U.S. shale keeps the market well supplied, and ultimately forces a downward price correction in the second half of the year, Barclays says. In fact, the investment bank said there are several factors that could conspire to kill off the recent rally. One of the looming supply risks is the potential confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. The re-implementation of sanctions threatens to cut off some 400,000 to 500,000 bpd of Iranian supply.

But Barclays says these concerns are “misguided,” with the risk overblown. “Yes, it should kill the prospects for medium-term oil investment, and yes it could destabilize the region further, but we struggle to accept a narrative that the market had been expecting big gains in Iranian output over the next several years anyway.” Moreover, the ongoing losses from Venezuela are also broadly accepted by most analysts. “Therefore, it is worth suggesting that in both of these countries, a dire scenario may already be priced in,” Barclays wrote.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Another Big British Bank Lands in Deep Trouble

Another Big British Bank Lands in Deep Trouble

Barclays faces a criminal trial in the UK. Last week it was RBS. 

Now, it’s the UK’s second-largest bank Barclays’ turn to face the music. A week ago, it was the UK’s third-largest bank, state-owned Royal Bank of Scotland, that faced one of its biggest scandal yet after whistle-blowers accused the bank of systematically forging customer signatures. RBS also faces the prospect of a multi-billion dollar fine for the way it sold residential mortgage-backed securities during the lead up to the Financial Crisis.

On Monday, the UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) announced that it was charging Barclays for a second time over a deeply suspicious £2.2 billion ($3 billion) loan it issued in 2008 to Qatar. To avoid a government bailout, Barclays took a £12 billion loan from Qatar Holdings, which is owned by the state of Qatar. Under that deal, Barclays loaned £2.3 billion back to Qatar Holdings, which allegedly was then used to buy shares in Barclays. If true, it would amount to “unlawful financial assistance,” the SFO says.

Barclays is the first British bank to face a criminal trial in the UK related to its conduct during the Financial Crisis. The fresh charge of “unlawful financial assistance” comes after charges were brought against Barclays’ holding company and four former executives last July.

Founded in 1690, Barclays is one of the world’s oldest banks. As the Financial Times notes, the original lender was established on a bedrock of honesty, integrity and plain dealing — a reflection of the sober values of the Quaker families that founded the bank. Today, things could not be more different. The bank now boasts one of the longest rap sheets of any bank in Europe, which — given the pedigree of the local competition, including Deutsche Bank, HSBC, RBS, UBS, BNP and Credit Suisse — is no mean feat.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Barclays Server Crash Leaves Customers Unble To Withdraw Cash, Use Debit Cards

Barclays Server Crash Leaves Customers Unble To Withdraw Cash, Use Debit Cards

Having managed to stem its recent earnings rout, reporting a Q4 rebound in income from continuing operations which rose to £380 million after reporting a loss of £2.24 billion a year ago, UK’s Barclays is facing a more traditional problem: on Saturday Barclays customers have reported problems using their cards in shops and withdrawing money from some cash machines according to the BBC.

Barclays customers tweeted about problems using their cards when out shopping or trying to access online banking on Saturday afternoon. “Wondered why my card was declined when paying for lunch. Barclays servers have crashed. Brilliant,” said one customer, James. Other echoed his sentiments.


Major problem with Barclays Bank as their server is down effecting all branches nationwide!

Barclays are having a major server issue – all card transactions are being declined and you can’t use ATM’s either 

Mobs of Angry Investors Fight Market Rigging, Maul Deutsche Bank in Class-Action Lawsuit, other Banks Next

Mobs of Angry Investors Fight Market Rigging, Maul Deutsche Bank in Class-Action Lawsuit, other Banks Next

Since none of the criminal bankers responsible end up in prison…

Prior to last week, Deutsche Bank made headlines for a string of huge losses and massive exposure to risky derivatives. The last time the firm’s shares traded at prices this low, the world was in the midst of 2008’s financial apocalypse.

Deutsche Bank didn’t need more bad news, but a group of investors who brought suit against the massive German bank for cheating them by rigging the London “fix” price for gold and silver certainly must be smiling. Last week, the bank offered to settle their class action suit for an undisclosed amount.

Perhaps more importantly, DB promises to provide evidence to help the plaintiffs in their suit against the other banks who participated in manipulating the fix: Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays, HSBC and SocGen. In a letter to U.S. District Court Judge Valerie Caproni, the plaintiff’s attorney said, “In addition to valuable monetary consideration, Deutsche Bank has also agreed to provide cooperation to the Plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement.”

If the information DB provides is incriminating, as the plaintiff’s expect, it won’t be the only recent example of bankers getting caught talking smugly amongst themselves about swindling investors and clients. A year ago Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, and RBS pled guilty to criminally rigging the foreign exchange markets following the leak of some embarrassing communiques.

That case rested, in large part, on logs from an exclusive chat group participants dubbed “The Cartel.”

Here is a good example of the type of conversations contained in those logs. The banker representing Barclays “mentors” another member:

Here is a good example of the type of conversations contained in those logs. The banker representing Barclays “mentors” another member:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will The Fed Follow The BoJ Down The NIRP Rabbit Hole?

Will The Fed Follow The BoJ Down The NIRP Rabbit Hole?

On Monday, in “JPM Looks At Draghi’s ‘Package,’ Finds It ‘Solid’ But Underwhelming,” we noted that according to Mislav Matejka, investors would do well to fade the ECB’s latest attempt to jumpstart inflation, growth, and of course asset prices with Draghi’s version of a Keynesian kitchen sink.

Overall, we believe the latest package is far from a game changer,” Matejka opined.

What was especially interesting about that particular note was the following graph and set of tables which show just how “effective” NIRP has been for the five central banks that have tried it so far.

As you can see, once you go NIRP, it’s pretty much all downhill from there whether you’re talking inflation, the economy, or even equities.

Given that, and given that the entire idea is absurd on its face for a whole laundry list of reasons, one wonders why any central banker would chase down this rabbit hole only to find themselves the protagonist in the latest retelling of “Krugman in Wonderland”.

In any event, for those wondering whether the Fed will join the ECB, the BoJ, the Riksbank, the SNB, and the NationalBank in this increasingly insane monetary experiment, below, courtesy of Bloomberg, find a chronological history of Fed and analyst commentary on NIRP in America.

FED COMMENTARY

  • March 16: Yellen said during post-FOMC press conference Fed isn’t actively considering negative rates, studying effects in other nations
  • March 2: San Francisco President Williams said “we’re not doing negative interest rates”; Williams Feb. 25 said negative rates are “potentially in the toolbox” but may have “unintended consequences”
  • March 1: Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Bloomberg Radio and TV negative interest rates, if pursued for an extended period of time, will eventually distort saving and investment…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kuroda’s NIRP Backlash – Japanese Interbank Lending Crashes

Kuroda’s NIRP Backlash – Japanese Interbank Lending Crashes

Not only has the Yen strengthened and stocks collapsed since BoJ’s Kuroda descended into NIRP lunacy but, in a dramatic shift that threatens the entire transmission mechanism of negative-rate stimulus, Japanese banks (whether fearing counterparty risk or already over-burdened) have almost entirely stopped lending to one another. Confusion reigns everywhere in Japanese markets with short-term interest-rate swap spreads surging and bond market volatility spiking to 3 year highs (dragging gold with it).

As Bloomberg reports,

The outstanding balance of the interbank activity plunged 79 percent to a record low of 4.51 trillion yen ($40 billion) on Feb. 25 since Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Jan. 29 announced plans to charge interest on some lenders’ reserves at the monetary authority.

While Kuroda wants to lower the starting point of the yield curve to reduce borrowing costs and spur shift of funds into riskier assets, the interbank rate has fallen only about as far as minus 0.01 percent, above the minus 0.1 percent charged on some BOJ reserves. The swings on bond yields will make it harder for financial institutions to determine how much business risks they can take, weighing on lending in a weak economy even as they are penalized for keeping some of their money at the central bank.

It will take at least another month until the market finds a level where many dealings are settled, as financial institutions face uncertainty over how the new policy affects monthly fund flows, said Izuru Kato, the president of Totan Research Co. in Tokyo.

“Since past patterns don’t apply under the entirely new structure, financial institutions will take a conservative approach until the financing picture is nailed down,” Kato said. “If the funding estimate proves wrong, banks might lose by prematurely lending in negative rates. People are cautious and staying on the sidelines.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

In Venezuela, “Savage Suffering” Takes Hold Amid Frightening “Food Emergency”

In Venezuela, “Savage Suffering” Takes Hold Amid Frightening “Food Emergency”

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been working on some “measures.”

“Now that the economic emergency decree has validity, in the next few days I will activate a series of measures I had been working on,” he said Thursday, in a televised statement meant to address a “food emergency” declared by Congress.

The “validity” Maduro references comes from a high court ruling that gives the President expanded powers to tackle a deepening economic crisis that’s left hospitals without medicine and grocery stores bereft of food.

“The controversial move by the Supreme Court, which critics say is packed with supporters of Mr Maduro’s socialist government, potentially sets the scene for a bitter institutional crisis amid claims that the national assembly is being undermined,” FT notes, underscoring the extent to which opposition lawmakers – who in December won 99 of 167 seats that were up for grabs in what amounted to the worst defeat in history for Hugo Chavez’s leftist movement – feel as though last year’s election victory may have been a ruse designed to lend legitimacy to a system that is, and likely always will be, deeply undemocratic.

“This is a tyranny, which has been very successful in disguising as a democracy, and has even allowed itself to lose an election,” Moisés Naím, a former Venezuelan minister and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said.

Thanks to the Supreme Court decision, Maduro doesn’t need the assembly’s permission to intervene further in business, to allocate funds for imports, and to introduce new capital controls. The opposition is furious and says it will speed up efforts to usurp Maduro once and for all. “In the next few days we will have to present a concrete proposal for the departure of that national disgrace that is the government,” opposition leader Henry Ramos told reporters on Friday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada Set To Unleash Negative Rates As Oil Patch Dies, Depression Deepens

Canada Set To Unleash Negative Rates As Oil Patch Dies, Depression Deepens

This Wednesday, the Bank of Canada has a decision to make.

Canada’s oil “dream” is dying thanks to the inexorable slide in crude prices and as the IEA made clear earlier today, the pain is set to persist for the foreseeable future as the world “drowns in oversupply.”

“Lower for longer” has hit the country’s oil patch hard. We’ve spent quite a bit of time documenting the plight of Alberta, where job cuts tied to crude’s slide have led directly to rising suicide rates, soaring property crime, and increased food bank usage (not to mention booming business for repo men).

Adding insult to injury for Canadians is the plunging loonie. Because the country imports most of its fresh fruits and vegetables, the weak currency has triggered a sharp increase in the price of many items in the grocery aisle as documented in a hilarious series of tweets by incredulous Canadian shoppers.

The question for the Bank of Canada is this: is the risk of an even weaker loonie worth taking if a rate cut has the potential to head off the myriad risks facing the economy?

We’ll find out what the BOC thinks tomorrow, but in the meantime, analysts have weighed in. JP Morgan’s Daniel Hui says CAD needs to fall further lest producers should simply close up shop. “[W]ith West Canada Select (WCS) now sitting just a dollar above the average per-barrel operational cost of $20 (Canadian), the risk is that any further decline will cause a whole new host of spillovers including potential shutdown and retrenchment of energy extraction and exports (with its attendant growth and balance of payment effects) or the potential of highly leveraged companies running operational losses, and the more contagious financial impact that might have in Canada, with broader spillovers.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Just Happened With OIL?

What Just Happened With OIL?

Yesterday, we reported exclusively how the Dallas Fed is pulling strings behind the scenes to conceal the fallout from the oil market crash. As Dark-Bid.com’s Daniel Drew notes, by suspending mark-to-market on energy loans and distorting the accounting, they are postponing the inevitable as long as possible. The current situation is eerily reminiscent to the heyday of the mortgage market in 2007, when mortgage defaults started to pick up, and yet the credit default swaps that tracked them continued to decline, bringing losses to those brave enough to trade against the crowd.

Amidst the market chaos on Friday, a trader brought something strange to my attention. He asked me exactly what the hell was going on with this ETN he was watching. I took a closer look and was baffled. It took me awhile to put the pieces together. Then when I saw the story about mark-to-market being suspended, it all made sense.

Here is the daily premium for the last 6 months on the Barclays iPath ETN that tracks oil:

Initially, Dark-Bid.com’s Daniel Drew thought this was merely a sign of retail desperation. As they faced devastating losses on their oil stocks, small investors turned to products like oil ETNs as they tried to grasp the elusive oil profits their financial adviser promised them a year ago. Oblivious to the cruel mechanics of ETNs, they piled in head first, in spite of the soaring premium to fair value. After all, Larry Fink is making the rounds to convince the small investor that ETFs are indeed safer than mutual funds. Because nothing says “safe” like buying an ETN that is 36% above its fair value.

Sure, there are differences between ETFs and ETNs, particularly regarding their solvency in the event of an issuer default, but the premium/discount problem plagues ETFs and ETNs alike. Nonetheless, widely trusted retail sources of investment information perpetuate the myth that ETNs do not have tracking errors.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“There Are No More Dollars In The Central Bank”: Argentina’s New President Confronts Liquidity Crisis

“There Are No More Dollars In The Central Bank”: Argentina’s New President Confronts Liquidity Crisis

On Monday, Mauricio Macri, the son of Italian-born construction tycoon Francesco Macri, beat out Cristina Kirchner’s handpicked successor Daniel Scioli for Argentina’s presidency in what amounted to a referendum on 12 years of Peronist rule.

A legacy of defaults combined with exceptionally high inflation and slow growth finally tipped the scales on the Leftists and now, Macri will try to clean up the mess.

As Citi noted in the wake of Macri’s victory (which was accompanied by some very bad dancing), “the most urgent challenge on the economic front is FX policy.” The President-elect wants to unify the official and parallel exchange rates (~9.60 and 15.50 ARS/USD, respectively) and that will of course entail a substantial devaluation. Just how overvalued is the peso, you ask? “Grossly” so, Citi says. Here’s their take:

Regarding the real overvaluation of the ARS, we estimate that real effective exchange rate has dropped (appreciated) 44% since 2011. Thus, for Argentina to have the same REER than four years ago, the USDARS should stand at 17. A different approach would be to compare the evolution of the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the USD in Argentina and other countries in the region. While the LatAm currencies (BRL, CLP, COP, MXN, PEN and UYU) real exchange rates relative to the USD have increased on average 36% since 2011, the USDARS has dropped 19% in real terms. Thus, from this point of view, the USDARS should stand 68% higher at 16.1.

 

A key figure in the execution of Macri’s currency plan is former JP Morgan global head of FX research Alfonso Prat-Gay who will be Argentina’s finance minister under the new Presdent. Prat-Gay was president of the country’s central bank beginning in 2002 and, as Reuters reminds us, “won widespread acclaim for swiftly taming runaway inflation and championing central bank independence.” If that sounds to you like characteristics that might rub a Peronist the wrong way, you’d be right, and Prat-Gay was ousted by the Kirchners.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Did Mario Draghi Just Leak The Bazooka? Two-Tiered NIRP System May Presage Big Rate Cut

Did Mario Draghi Just Leak The Bazooka? Two-Tiered NIRP System May Presage Big Rate Cut

Back in September (and on several subsequent occasions), we discussed the implications of a further cut to the ECB’s depo rate. A plunge further into NIRP-dom would have serious consequences for the Riksbank, the SNB, the Nationalbank, and the Norges Bank.

In world dominated by beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy, one cut begets another in race to the bottom as everyone scrambles to, i) keep their currency from soaring and ii) keep the inflationary impulse alive.

As Barclays explained in great detail several months ago, another ECB depo rate cut would have an outsized effect of the franc:

A cut in the ECB’s deposit rate further into negative territory likely would have a significant impact on the EURCHF exchange rate and provoke a more immediate response from the SNB. Indeed, we expect that a cut in the ECB’s deposit rate may have a greater effect on EURCHF than on other EUR crosses. Switzerland applies its negative deposit rate to only a fraction of reserves, currently about 1/3rd of sight deposits by our calculation. In contrast, negative deposit rates apply to all reserves held at the ECB, Riksbank and Denmark’s Nationalbank. Consequently, a cut to the ECB’s deposit rate likely has a larger impact both on the economy and on the exchange rate than a proportionate cut by the SNB. 

Now, it appears Mario Draghi may be about to go the Swiss route by introducing a tiered system for the application of negative rates. As Reuters reports, “Euro zone central bank officials are considering options such as whether to stagger charges on banks hoarding cash ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting, according to officials.”

“Officials are discussing a split-level rate,” Reuters goes on to note, adding that the “contested step would impose a higher charge on banks depending on the amount of cash they deposit with the ECB.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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