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President-Elect of Mexico’s Bombshell: Economy in “Situation of Bankruptcy”

President-Elect of Mexico’s Bombshell: Economy in “Situation of Bankruptcy”

And why are Bank of Mexico executives and employees resigning in droves?

Around 200 central bank employees, including 20 senior executives, have left their posts at the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) since presidential elections on July 1 handed a resounding victory to populist Andrés Manual Lopez Obrador (or AMLO). Unsurprisingly, their sudden departure has a lot to do with money.

One of AMLO’s manifesto pledges was to slash salaries for senior government officials and bureaucrats as part of sweeping cost-cutting measures. So far, he’s kept to his word. Last week, Congress, now under the majority control of his party, Morena, passed a law that will make it impossible for any state employee to earn more than the president. The gross monthly salary of the current president, Enrique Peña Nieto, is 209,135 pesos ($11,700). AMLO has pledged to cut the salary in half when he takes over the post on December 1.

The law will come into force in January and will apply to all three federal branches of government as well as regional and local government institutions. This could be a major problem for employees of Banxico, since all of them are considered public officials and many of them earn more than the current president. The average monthly salary of a Banxico board member is 365,000 pesos ($19,400), around 70% more than Peña Nieto’s and over 230% higher than the salary AMLO has pledged to pay himself.

Banxico has refused to comment on the matter but it’s safe to assume that the gathering exodus of central bank employees has at least something to do with AMLO’s plan to slash their salaries. Mexico’s central bank workers, it seems, are less enthralled by the austerity principle when it’s applied to their own income rather than others’.

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Mexico’s Central Bank Just Broke with the War on Cash

Mexico’s Central Bank Just Broke with the War on Cash

Motivated by inflation?

A strange thing just happened in Mexico. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico), announced that it is considering launching a 2,000 peso note (ca. $105), double the highest denomination note currently in circulation. It’s also considering doing away with Mexico’s lowest denomination 20 peso bill (ca. $1.05), which will be replaced by a coin with the same face value.

Not everyone’s happy about the proposal, which forms part of a range of measures aimed at updating Mexico’s currency notes. Miguel González Ibarra, director of the Center for Financial Studies and Public Finance of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said that introducing a higher denomination bill flies in the face of the broad trend among advanced economies to weed out such notes.

In 2016 Peter Sands, the former CEO of the British bank Standard Chartered, set the tone of the debate when he published a report for Harvard Kennedy School of Government imploring central banks around the world to stop issuing high-denomination notes and bills. They include the €500 note, the $100 bill, the CHF1,000 note and the £50 note. This is the first rule of the war on cash: make high-denomination notes taboo in law-abiding circles.

“Such notes are the preferred payment mechanism of those pursuing illicit activities, given the anonymity and lack of transaction record they offer, and the relative ease with which they can be transported and moved,” the report warned. In other words, only criminals use cash. High-denomination notes, the report added, “play little role in the functioning of the legitimate economy, yet a crucial role in the underground economy.”

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Inflation Surges as Economy Bogs Down in Mexico

Inflation Surges as Economy Bogs Down in Mexico

In the last week, the governor of the Bank of Mexico (or Banxico), Augustin Carstens, stepped down in order to take over the reins as general manager of the Bank for International Settlements in Basil, Switzerland, while Finance Minister José Antonio Meade, handed in his resignation to run as the presidential candidate for the governing PRI party in next year’s general elections.

Despite the fact that the country’s two most senior public financial officials have left their posts within days of one another, and though the Mexican stock index is down about 9% from July, the markets still seem pretty sanguine.

But that doesn’t mean that problems are not stacking up.

Earlier this year Carstens felt compelled to postpone by five months his departure from Banxico, which was initially scheduled for May, in the hope that his continued presence would help steady investor nerves as well as tame inflation, which began soaring after the government’s one-off hike in gas prices at the beginning of this year.

It didn’t quite work out that way. Despite the Bank of Mexico’s policy rate of 7%, consumer prices in Mexico hit a higher-than-expected annual rate of 6.6% in the first two weeks of November. “Obviously, the final photo of my mandate isn’t the best,” Mr Carstens told the FT.

While inflation has surged, economic growth remains sluggish compared with many other countries, including Mexico’s direct neighbor to the north. Banxico is forecasting growth this year of 1.8% to 2.3%. But even that may end up proving to be optimistic after it was revealed this week that third-quarter gross domestic product had shrunk by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, as manufacturing declined more than expected. It was the first quarter-to-quarter GDP contraction since Q4 2015.

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