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Decline In U.S. Oil Rigs Sends WTI Higher

Decline In U.S. Oil Rigs Sends WTI Higher

oil rig

The the number of active oil and gas rigs fell in the United States this week according to Baker Hughes.

The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs fell by 3 according to the report with the number of active oil rigs gaining 2 to reach 833 and the number of gas rigs falling 5 to reach 189.

The oil and gas rig count is now just 14 up from this time last year, with oil seeing just a 18-rig increase year on year, gas rigs down on the year by 3, and miscellaneous rigs seeing a 1-rig decrease for the year.

Oil prices were trading significantly up earlier on Friday leading up to the data release as bullish factors excited the market after a massive shakeup deal between Chevron and Exxon was announced, and on tightening supply signals from Libya, Algeria, and Venezuela.

WTI was trading up $0.60 (+0.94%) at $64.18—inching closer to $70 per barrel that some analysts predict would hurt demand. The Brent benchmark was trading up $0.67 (+0.95%) at $71.50 at 12:22pm EST, comfortably over the $70 threshold. Prices for both represent a significant gain week on week.

US crude oil production for week ending April 5 was 12.2 million barrels for the second week in a row.

Canada, too, saw a decline in the number of active rigs this week. Canada’s total oil and gas rig count fell by 2 after falling by 20 last week, and is now just 66, which is 36 fewer rigs than this time last year as Canada’s oil industry continues to face steep uphill battles over its constrained pipeline capacity that is necessary to get its heavy crude to market along with production caps instituted to keep Western Canadian Select prices from falling further.

By 1:06pm EDT, WTI was trading up 0.82% (+$0.52) at $64.10 on the day. Brent crude was trading up 0.99% (+$0.70) at $71.53 per barrel.

Rig Count Falls As U.S. Oil Output Flatlines

Rig Count Falls As U.S. Oil Output Flatlines

Eagle ford rig

Baker Hughes reported another dip in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States today. Oil and gas rigs decreased by 7 rigs, according to the report, with the number of oil rigs decreasing by 1, and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 6.

The oil and gas rig count now stands at 1,052—up 111 from this time last year.

Canada, for its part, gained 21 oil rigs for the week—after last week’s gain of 27 oil and gas rigs. Despite weeks of significant gains, Canada’s oil and gas rig count is still down by 10 year over year.

Oil benchmarks surged on Friday afternoon as the market processed OPEC’s agreement to stick more closely to the production cuts by holding the feet to the fire of those members who had underproduced its quota under the OPEC deal that went into effect in January 2017. The OPEC meeting on Friday resulted in OPEC agreeing to increase production to get back to agreed upon levels, which is about 1 million bpd more than the cartel produced in May, when compliance to the quota was about 150%. Missing from the events of the day was OPEC’s agreement to undo the production cut deal, or to gradually increase production beyond the contractual amount of 32.4 million bpd. The absence of any real change to the production quota proceeded a significant price spike of 4%, as relief set in that OPEC deal would either fall apart or come to an early end.

At 11:44am EDT, the WTI benchmark was trading up 3.83% (+$2.51) to $68.05, with Brent up 2.31% (+$1.68) to $74.48. Both benchmarks are up week over week as well as on the day.

US oil production continues putting downward pressure on oil prices, and for the second week in a row, US production reached 10.900 million bpd—close to the 11 million bpd production that many had forecast for the year. This week is the first week in over a quarter that wasn’t an increase.

At 6 minutes after the hour, WTI was trading up 4.81% at $68.69, with Brent trading up 2.18%at $74.39.

Oil Prices Tank As U.S. Drillers Add Massive Number Of Rigs

Oil Prices Tank As U.S. Drillers Add Massive Number Of Rigs

rigs

As if the recent nosedive that oil prices have taken in the last few days wasn’t bad enough—Baker Hughes reported a staggering increase to the number of rigs. The number of active oil and gas rigs increased by 29 to Baker Hughes data. This brings the total number of oil and gas rigs to 975, which is an addition of 234 rigs year over year.

The number of oil rigs in the United States rose this week by 26 with the number of gas rigs increasing by 3. The number of oil rigs now stands at 791 versus 591 a year ago. The number of gas rigs in the US now stands at 184, up from 149 a year ago.

At 11:24 am EST, the price of a WTI barrel was trading down $1.35 (-2.21 percent) to $59.80—almost a staggering $5.00 under this same time last week. The Brent barrel trading down $1.39(-2.14 percent) to $63.42, also almost $5 per barrel under last week, and a loss of 9 percent since the highs in late January.

Pressing on prices are robust US production. US crude oil production rose again, to 10.251 million bpd, from 9.919 million bpd the week before, setting another new high and surpassing the psychological threshold of 10.0 million bpd.

Last week, the EIA pressured prices even further when it changed its US production forecast, with their prediction that the US would reach 11 million bpd by the end of 2018—a full year earlier than its previous estimates that it had made just last month.

The Permian basin rig count saw the greatest increase to the number of rigs at 10.

At 1:09pm EST, WTI was trading at $59.03 (-$2.12) with Brent trading at $62.68 (-$2.13).

Rig Count Drops Most In 7 Months As ‘Traders’ Panic-Buy Crude Futures

The US oil rig count dropped 5 to 763 last week, the biggest drop in 7 months. However, crude production from the Lower 48 has surged (rising the most since June last week) to the highest since July 2015. Even with today’s sheer farce panic-buying squeze higher in WTI crude, oil looks set for its 3rd weekly close lower as BNP notes the “whole supply surplus story is not likely to go away anytime soon.”

  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 763 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US
  • *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 1 TO 182 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US

As we have noted previously, this inflection point in the rig count fits with the rolover in crude prices…

While the rig count growth has stabilized, crude production continues to rise in the Lower 48 (though had dropped in Alaska for 3 straight weeks) but both saw a rise this week (total production up 79k) as Lower 48 production hit its highest since July 2015…

Bloomberg notes that U.S. oil production from major shale plays is set to hit another record at 6.15 million barrels a day next month, according to the EIA. It’s not just the Permian that’s growing, as the agency sees higher output across the board.

WTI Crude remains lower on the week despite the panic-buying… with no catalyst at all except bannon momentum ignition in USDJPY.

Soime chatter on the crude curve – “Flat price is finally catching up with some of the signs we’ve seen that the physical market is tightening,” Clayton Rogers, an energy derivative broker at SCS Commodities, says.

International Rig Count Still Falling

International Rig Count Still Falling

The rig count data in all charts below is through February 2016.

BH Total Intl.

The Baker Hughes International Rig Count does not include the US, Canada, any of the FSU countries or inland China. It does include offshore China. That rig count peaked in July 2014 at 1,382 rigs and in February stood at 1,018, down 364 rigs from the peak.

BH Total World

The Baker Hughes total world rig count does include US and Canada but not the FSU or inland China. That total oil & gas rig count stood at 1761 in February, down 52% since December of 2014.

BH US Monthly

The US monthly total rig count stood at 532 in February, down 72% from November 2014.

BH Canada

The Canadian total rig count usually peaks in February. It did not in 2015 but stood at 211 this February which will likely be the peak for 2016. That count is down from 626 rigs in February 2014, down over 66%. That was the last pre-price crash February peak.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

International Rig Count Still Falling

International Rig Count Still Falling

July usually sees a big jump in rig counts. This year there was a very tiny July increase, only a fraction of the increase we usually see for July.

Rig Count Total International

*The Total International rig counts does not include the USA, Canada or the FSU. The Total International rig count was down 28 in July to 1118. Last July it was up3 to 1344.


Rig Count Middle East

The Middle East is the only place that rig counts are holding up. Rig counts for July are down 32 to 391 but they are still above their 2013 levels.

Rig Count Latin America

Latin American rigs fell 1 to 313 and are 23% below their 2014 level of 410.

Rig Count Europe

Europe’s rig counts fell in July to 108. That is 45 rigs below last July’s count of 153.

 

A True Jobs Massacre Spreads in US Oil & Gas

A True Jobs Massacre Spreads in US Oil & Gas

It’s been tough for US oil companies. And even tougher for their investors. The hero du jour is Marathon Oil.

Today afterhours it reported an eye-popping 48% plunge in revenues in the second quarter and a net loss of $386 million. To stem the bleeding, it slashed capital expenditures by 40% from the prior quarter. “Importantly,” as it said in the press release, it was able to reduce production costs in North America by over 30% per barrel of oil equivalent from a year ago. And it cut is general and administrative costs by more than 20%.

The key to survival in this environment of plunging revenues is conserving cash and slashing expenses, including “workforce reductions,” as the company calls them. And something else….

Marathon proudly said that its global production from continuing operations (excluding Libya) rose 6% from a year ago, with its US production soaring “nearly 30%.” And it’s not backing down either: Total company production would increase 5-7% year-over-year, with a 20% jump in production in the US.

Thus it joined the cacophonous chorus of oil and gas companies that have been bragging about production increases despite the oil glut, despite the oil price plunge, despite the mayhem in the oil markets, just when investors are desperately waiting for the ever elusive production cuts.

BP’s debacle is even worse. Last week, it announced a loss of $6.3 billion and warned of more layoffs to come. It raised the restructuring charges for those layoffs from $1 billion, put forward in December, to $1.5 billion. “We will continue to identify more opportunities for simplification and efficiency,” is how CEO Bob Dudley put it in perfect corporate-speak. And cuts are now coming at “a faster pace.”

Dozens of companies in the oil & gas sector have announced job cuts since last fall, with some of the global players, like Baker Hughes, pushing their layoff numbers into the low five-digits. It has been a relentless litany.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Rigs Down Almost Universally

Oil Rigs Down Almost Universally

All rig count data is provided by Baker Hughes. All monthly charts are oil rigs only. Gas rigs are not included in the count. The last data point for all monthly charts is April 2015.

When I talk about “peaks” in this post I am only speaking of the peak since 2011 and am not suggesting that there were not higher peaks in previous years.

(Click all charts for larger version)

InternationalRigCount

The International Rig Count has fallen by 150 rigs, from 1,080 in July 2014 to 930 in April 2015. This count does not include the USA, Canada or any of the FSU countries.

EuropeanRigCount

The European Oil Rig Count dropped from 96 in October and November to 65 in April.

AfricanRigCount

The African Rig count peaked at 123 in February and dropped to 88 in April.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Total Rig Count Decline Fastest Since 1986 As Weekly Rig Count Drop Re-Accelerates

Total Rig Count Decline Fastest Since 1986 As Weekly Rig Count Drop Re-Accelerates

With crude production and inventories hitting record highs this week, it is likely no surprise that rig counts continued to decline – falling 40 to 988 total rigs  (and down 42 to 760 oil rigs). This is the 18th week in a row of total rig count declines – equal to the record series from 2008/9. At 48.5%, this is the biggest 18-week decline since 1986.

  • *U.S. TOTAL RIG COUNT DOWN 40 TO 988 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS
  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 42 TO 760, BAKER HUGHES SAYS
  • Notably Arkansas and Kansas saw rig counts increase (8 to 9 and 12 to 13 respectively)

The weekly pace of decline has accelerated…

 

This is the biggest 18-week plunge since 1986…

 

And Production re-accelerates (US and Saudi oil production record high, Iraq and Libya also boosted production in March) even as rig count collapses…

 

And Crude’s initial response…Nothing

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Where Have All The Rigs Gone?

Where Have All The Rigs Gone?

Baker Hughes publishes a weekly oil and gas rig count by producing basin. I have created charts of all the most productive basins in order that we can see where oil and gas rigs are increasing or decreasing. Their historic rig count, by basin, goes back 4 years.

It needs to be noted that Baker Hughes does not count rigs that are not actively drilling. Rigs that are “Moving In, Rigging Up” are not counted in the Baker Hughes count though they are counted by some others including the North Dakota Industrial Commission.

All rig counts are as of Friday, February 27, 2015.

TotalUSRigCount

But first, total US weekly rig count. The oil rig count stands at 986, down 623 from a high of 1,609 in October. The gas rig count stands at 280, down 656 rigs from the high of 935 in October of 2011. However this data base goes back only 4 years. The all-time high for gas rigs was 1,606 in September of 2008. The 1,609 oil rig count in October 2014 was an all-time high for oil rigs. That record is valid only back to the days when Baker Hughes began separate stats for oil and gas rigs however.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Prices Don’t Change Because of Rig Count

Oil Prices Don’t Change Because of Rig Count

Oil prices don’t change based on weekly rig count reports.

Yet every week, there are proclamations by analysts that oil prices are poised to recover because of some change in the Baker Hughes North American rig count. Others state that U.S. tight oil production will continue to rise despite falling rig counts because of the miracle of shale rig efficiency.

What this really means is that nobody has any idea about when oil prices will rebound. As I have previously written, that is because nothing has happened so far to cause a change in oil prices.

What can we learn from rig counts?  The weekly U.S. rig count is another data point that, along with other data points, can help us to see potential trends while we wait for something meaningful to happen that causes oil prices to rise…or to fall farther. But we have to do some work with the data before we can hope to get anything from the rig count and, even then, we must not read too much into it.

First, the total North American or U.S. rig count is a practically meaningless number. Rig counts rise and fall all the time whether prices are rising or falling.  In the chart below, the rig count shown in red changed weekly whether oil prices were rising or falling.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Low Prices Lead To Layoffs In The Oil Patch

Low Prices Lead To Layoffs In The Oil Patch.

Crude oil is set to close out a shocking year with a fresh five-year price low in the final days of 2014, falling more than 50 percent from their June highs.

The decline continues to bedevil the markets. Sensing a rally was in order, speculators had dumped money into energy stocks throughout the month of December, hoping to buy up positions at basement prices. But Bloomberg reports that long positions in West Texas Intermediate declined by the most since August for the week ending on December 23, an indication that the markets have lost confidence in a swift rebound for oil prices.

This portends a longer period of low oil prices, and with that, a cutback in drilling and job losses in the U.S. oil patch. Baker Hughes reported that the rig count took another significant hit in the week ending on December 29, falling by 35 to a total of 1,840 oil and gas rigs in operation. Across the country, exploration companies are slashing their capital expenditures for the coming year to reflect the poor price environment.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Low Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations

Low Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations.

Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers.

The number of active rigs drilling for oil and gas fell by their most in two months, according to the latest data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. 17, compared to the prior week. There are now 1,590 active oil rigs, the lowest level in six weeks.

“Unless there’s a significant reversal in oil prices, we’re going to see continued declines in the rig count, especially those drilling for oil,” James Williams, president of WTRG Economics, told Fuel Fix in an interview. “We could easily see the oil rig count down 100 by the end of the year, or more.”

Baker Hughes CEO Martin Craighead predicted that U.S. drilling companies could begin to seriously start removing rigs from operation if prices drop to around $75 per barrel. Some of the more expensive shale regions will not be profitable at current prices. For example, the pricey Tuscaloosa shale in Louisiana breaks even at about $92 per barrel.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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