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Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context

Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context

Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode

BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security

Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth

Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the new [product import] terminal expected to open in 2022.

The Federal Government has expressed disappointment over the refinery closure.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor said …… the Government expected BP to deliver on its commitment to supporting workers during a challenging period, but that closure of the refinery would not impact Australian fuel supplies.

“We will ensure Australia maintains a sovereign refining capability to support local industry, meet our nation’s needs during an emergency, and protect motorists from future higher prices,” he said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-30/bp-shuts-down-kwinana-refinery-hundreds-of-job-losses-expected/12832372

The Minister’s statement seems to be wishful thinking.  3 refineries already closed in the last 8 years

2013 Shell Clyde refinery, 85 kb/d in Sydney

2014 Caltex Kurnell refinery, 125 kb/d in Sydney

2015 BP Bulwer refinery, 102 kb/d in Brisbane

The following graph shows the impact of these previous closures on crude and product imports:

Fig 3: Crude imports dropped and replaced by product imports
https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-update-2020

The growth in diesel consumption explains why the government was forced to invest $200 million in a competitive grants program to build an additional 780 ML of onshore diesel storage
Media release 14 Sep 2020
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/boosting-australias-fuel-security

Fig 4: After the Kwinana closure there will be only 3 refineries
https://www.festanks.com.au/crude-oil-refining-in-australia-infographic/

As BP made its announcement a crude oil tanker from UAE was in port.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australia’s Perth Mint Silver Bullion Sales Surge In 2020

Australia’s Perth Mint Silver Bullion Sales Surge In 2020

With the newest update just released, Perth Mint silver bullion sales surged in the first three quarters of 2020.  And, for the first time in many years, the Perth Mint sold more than two million oz of silver bullion in a single month this year.  The official silver coins produced by the Perth Mint are the Silver Kangaroo, Koala, and Kookaburras.

Not only are the Perth Mint’s silver bullion sales up significantly this year, but gold bullion sales are also up a stunning 160% higher than the same period last year (info from CoinNews.net).  The Perth Mint sold 579,644 oz of gold bullion Jan-Sep this year versus 223,821 oz in 2019.

According to the data published on CoinNews.netPerth Mint silver bullion sales for Jan-Sep increased to 13.1 million oz compared to 7.8 million oz during the same period last year.  That’s a 68% increase year-over-year.

Furthermore, U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales of 24.5 million oz are up 66% compared to the 14.8 million sold for Full-Year 2019.  So, with two more months remaining in the year, there is a good chance that Silver Eagle sales will reach 28-29 million, nearly double what they were in 2019.

I will update the Royal Canadian Mint’s Silver Maple and billion sales in an upcoming article.

With demand for physical silver bullion up significantly this year, along with the global Silver ETFs, if we see another year like this in 2021, watch out for much higher prices.

People power: everyday Australians are building their own renewables projects, and you can too

People power: everyday Australians are building their own renewables projects, and you can too

In the town of Goulburn in southern New South Wales, an energy revolution is brewing. The community has come together to build its own 4,000-panel solar farm – everyday citizens are invited to buy shares in the venture and reap the rewards.

Goulburn is not alone: community-owned energy is an idea whose time has come. About 100 community energy groups operate across Australia – their projects at various levels of development – up from 25 groups in 2015.

The concept is gaining political attention, too. Independent MP for the federal Victorian seat of Indi, Helen Haines, in August moved a motion in parliament, calling on the Morrison government to support community energy, including establishing a new government agency. The bill is backed by fellow independent Zali Steggall.

At its core, community energy rests on the belief that everyday people should have power over how their energy is generated – including its environmental and social impacts. Big corporations should not control our energy systems, nor should they reap all the profits. So let’s take a look at how community energy works.

A solar farmProjects such as the ACT’s Mount Majura solar farm allow citizens to take control of their energy needs.
Steve Bittinger/Flickr under CC licence 2.0

What is community energy?

Australia’s first community-owned renewable energy project, Hepburn Wind, started generating power in June 2011. Since then, many more communities across Australia have banded together to manage their own solar, wind, micro-grid and efficiency projects.

The Goulburn project will be built in the Hume electorate of federal energy minister Angus Taylor, about 3km from the town centre. Earlier this year it received a A$2.1 million state grant, under the Regional Community Energy Fund.

Investors can reportedly buy A$400 shares, each covering the cost of a solar panel and the infrastructure needed for grid connection.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

Is War With China Becoming Inevitable?

Tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen. And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.

“The Indians are seeing 60,000 Chinese soldiers on their northern border,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo ominously warned on Friday.

He spelled out what he meant to commentator Larry O’Connor:

“The Chinese have now begun to amass huge forces against India in the north. … They absolutely need the United States to be their ally and partner in this fight.”

Pompeo had just returned from a Tokyo gathering of foreign ministers from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” the group of four democracies — U.S., Japan, Australia, India — whose purpose is to discuss major Indo-Pacific geostrategic issues.

Exactly what kind of “ally and partner” the U.S. is to be “in the fight” between India and China over disputed terrain in the Himalayan Mountains was left unexplained. We have no vital interest in where the Line of Control between the most populous nations on earth should lie that would justify U.S. military involvement with a world power like China.

And the idea that Japan, whose territorial quarrel with China is over the tiny Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, thousands of miles away, would take sides in a Himalayan India-China conflict also seems ludicrous.

Yet, tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen.

And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh VI

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh VI

It’s truly unfortunate that our society pursues such self-evidently egregious exploits on our environment. You can’t continue to pollute your backyard without eventually destroying the complex ecological systems that support you — to say little about the finiteness of most resources we overly depend upon. And, certainly, we can’t continue to allow our sociopolitical ‘leaders’ to pursue such destructive policies and actions.

Yet, the issues and underlying dilemmas are much more complex than just exploitive foreign capital and revenue-seeking politicians. Yes, these are problematic; without a doubt. But they are one piece in a multi-layered puzzle that may or may not have a ‘solution’.

Society’s embracing of several self-destructive behaviours must be undone and reversed. Perhaps the most fundamental of these is the pursuit of ‘growth’. Economic. Population. Technological. Et cetera.

We do not live on a planet with infinite resources and the exponential increase of our activities continues to paint us further and further into a corner. While it is unlikely there will be a definitive ‘day of reckoning’ because of our blasting past our natural carrying capacity (since collapse is a process, not an event), the consequences of our actions will be felt as surely as day follows night.

In fact, it could be argued that we are already and have been experiencing the fallout of our expanding and increasingly complex activities for some time now. Decimated species required for food crop pollination. Expanding geopolitical tensions over resources, especially fossil fuels and water. Supply chain interruptions. Environmental disasters. Increasingly authoritarian government policies and edicts to control populations. Currency debasement. Global pandemics. And on and on.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE INSANITY CONTINUES: Massive Diesel Engines Used To Balance Australia’s Renewable Energy Fiasco

THE INSANITY CONTINUES: Massive Diesel Engines Used To Balance Australia’s Renewable Energy Fiasco

Thus, if we have stupid solutions then we must use stupid bandaids.  Again, the insanity continues.

The credit for the information in this brief article goes to StopTheseThings.com, which focuses on the problems associated with wind and solar power generation.  The article, Ships Ahoy! Giant Diesel-Fuelled Ship Engines ‘Solution’ For Australia’s Renewable Energy Crisis, provided me a few good laughs and the desire to share it on the SRSroccoReport.com.

Here is a picture of the Wartsila 50DF Diesel Ship Engine:

Notice the two workers next to the engine?  That should give you an idea of the size of this beast.  According to the article linked above, AGL Energy Limited has installed 12 of these engines at the Barker Inlet Power Station in Torres Island, Australia.  The total output from these dozen ship engines is rated at 210 MW (MegaWatts).

Here’s another picture of Wartsila’s 50DF Diesel Ship Engine at the factory plant.

These Wartsila engines can run on diesel, natural gas, and bunker oil.  Can you imagine how much fuel a dozen of these engines consume to balance the power lost from wind and solar generation??  If you read the article linked above, which I highly recommend, wind power generated in Southern Australia can see drops of 3,000 MWs!!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australia Pushes New Measure To Detain COVID “Conspiracy Theorists” 

Weekend demonstrations have flared up in Australia over the last month, as Aussies have vented their frustrations and attempted to take back control of their communities after a surge in virus cases prompted the government to re-implement some of the world’s most draconian social-distancing measures.

And if there is one thing that terrifies increasingly tyrannical governments, it’s a loss of control of the narrative, which is why the Australian government is getting a jump start on curbing any so-called “conspiracy theorists” daring to spread information that questions the fear-mongering being used to keep Aussie citizens under lock and key.

A new bill is expected to be debated by the Victorian government in the State Parliament this week. It gives local authorities the power to detain “conspiracy theorists” and people who refuse to self-isolate, reported Caldron Pool.

If passed, the COVID-19 Omnibus (Emergency Measures) allows the government to detain anyone labeled as a “high risk” or likely to spread COVID-19 negligently.

A state government spokesman told The Age that the rule could be applied to “conspiracy theorists who refuse to self-isolate or severely drug-affected or mentally impaired people who do not have the capacity to quarantine.” Those arrested under the new rule will be housed in quarantine facilities. 

Attorney-General Jill Hennessy said the new bill would “allow us to continue responding to the challenges the pandemic presents, so we can keep protecting Victorians and delivering the services they rely on.”

So far, many of the anti-lockdown demonstrations have been held on the weekends. At least 200 people were fined and 74 arrested at a protest in Melbourne on Sunday. If the bill is passed, some protesters would be rounded up and arrested, and could spend time in a quarantine facility.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

At A Time Of Rapidly Creeping Authoritarianism, Assange’s Freedom Is More Crucial Than Ever

At A Time Of Rapidly Creeping Authoritarianism, Assange’s Freedom Is More Crucial Than Ever

My home state of Victoria has become the center of attention in the anti-lockdown movement for its authoritarian crackdown against not just people who are in violation of lockdown protocol, but people who merely post about staging future anti-lockdown protests on social media.

Police have been breaking into people’s homes and arresting them in front of their children under charges of “incitement” for posting about anti-lockdown protests on Facebook, drawing international headlines. This is obviously a major threat to human rights that sets a dangerous precedent and will have many undesirable knock-on effects, and it should be condemned unequivocally.

“This is awful. ‘Incitement’ is going to be used to crack down on all sorts of protests – including on issues we agree with and think are worth protesting,” explained Australian author and analyst Ketan Joshi of one such arrest. “Every time I post about this, I am stunned by the number of people who seem furiously unwilling to draw any connection between what’s happening above and the history of climate and anti-racist protest in Australia.”

“Those who claim Covid-19 is being exploited by governments to dismantle our diminishing freedoms have just been handed a chilling new piece of evidence to support their case,” tweeted journalist Jonathan Cook.

Indeed this ham-fisted approach seems to be a lot more popular among residents of Melbourne and the state of Victoria who are subjected to it than to a large portion of the outside world. Part of this discrepancy is due to Australia having an entire culture built around the phrase “No worries, whatever you reckon’s a fair thing,” but another part is the fact that people in other self-proclaimed democracies are accustomed to having a bill of rights to protect them against such intrusive overreach.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ruthless Tyranny by Police in Melbourne

Video Player

With more and more evidence coming out that this COVID-19 has been an orchestrated political attempt to prepare to subjugate the people for this Great Reset, the police who are supporting absolute tyranny in Melbourne, they are risking the real world mindless authoritarian power. Even the CDC in the USA admits more people are dying from suicides and drug overdoses than COVID. The German Health Minister has publicly admitted the lockdowns were a mistake.

Why is the Victoria police so anti-freedom? This illustrates that when the revolution comes, they are the first to be hanged as traitors. I have shown that when the police turn and support the people, that is when true freedom emerges as took place when Yeltsin stood on the tanks in 1991 in Moscow begging for them not to shoot their own people and in Ukraine when the police turned against Yanukovich. When they continue to support ruthless governments as they are doing in Melbourne and Venezuela, they inspire revolution which turns eventually violent.

It is truly astonishing how the Melbourne police are doing the same as the Nazis plead at Nuremberg – I was just following orders!.

Tens of Thousands Protest in Victoria After Andrews Arrests a Pregnant Woman

Video Player

The peaceful march in Victoria with the cry “FREE VICTORIA” from the tyranny of Andrews showed that 10s of thousands of people came out risking arrest from the ruthless police that claims to be just following orders as the Nazis did in executing Jews as they try to pretend they are not the problem. I have said many times that UNTIL the police wake up and defend the people against tyrants like Andrews, then freedom vanishes. They will abuse the people and hide behind the slogan they were just following orders when they swear an oath to defend the human rights embodied in international law. There is no way Andrews will win an election unless he bans elections and rigs them.

 

The interesting thing is Trump is far more popular outside the United States for standing up against this hoax. Here you will even see signs “TRUMP THANKS FOR SAVING OUR CHILDREN.” These are not pictures Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab want to see for their tyranny will come with a very heavy price.

ASIA, AUSTRALIA, BP STATISTICAL REVIEW, SOUTH EAST ASIA, VIETNAM

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)

Fig 22: The peak of the largest producer China determined the Asian peak

From the countries in Fig 22 the 3rd and 4th largest oil importers are Thailand and Indonesia with approximately 1 mb/d each.

Fig 23: Thailand is the 3rd largest net importer in Asia …

Fig 24: … closely followed by Indonesia

Fig 25: Indonesia had higher oil consumption growth rates

Number 5 net importer is Australia with half million barrels/day

Fig 26: Australia’s net imports have dropped by 150 kb/d in 2019 due to a production increase

Fig 27: Vietnam experienced a tripling of net oil imports in the last 4 years
Fig 28: Malaysia is net importer since 2011

Fig 29: Other Asian countries have doubled net imports since 2015

Fig 30: By 2010 all these countries had become net oil importers

Previous links:

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-2

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-1

China & US War in 3 Months?

China & US War in 3 Months?

The former Labor Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd has come out in a piece he wrote in Foreign Affairs – Beware the Guns of August—in Asia. Rudd is claiming that the US and China may go to war in three months ahead of the US elections. This is clearly the left trying to claim that Trump will start a war just to win the White House. This seems to be simply part of this entire global quest to usher in socialism and end capitalism. The left simply wants total power. Just look at Melbourne, Australia. This one beautiful city I visited often ios now a prison camp using COVID to strip people of all human rights. The police may now enter anyone’s home without a warrant and they imposed a Curfew 8:00 pm.

This entire issue of rising tensions will not lead to war under Trump. Even if China were to invade Taiwan, the US is not likely to send in ground troops. China is flexing its muscles because the West is committing politic-economic suicide with COVID. China knows the agenda and it is being driven by Bill Gates. Activists have been pushing US institutions to sell all investments in China because they are not yielding to the Climate Change Agenda. This is breaking the economic link the does prevent war.

In addition, China is moving to expand its own domestic consumer economy. It has adopted a different pather than Europe which clings to socialism and Germany is still a mercantilistic economy. China will become the new Financial Capital of the World because it is adopting a domestic view while the Democrats in the USA are trying to follow Europe and subjugate the productive capacity of the nation under Marxist class warfare.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

McCarthyism Down Under

McCarthyism Down Under

UPDATE: 5 Eyes media have been amplifying the story. BBC quoted Sydney Morning Herald saying, “No allegations had been proven.” The New York Times, which rarely reports on Australia, ran a staff-written story, writes Joe Lauria.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison held a somber press conference on Friday to announce that the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) had conducted a raid on a sitting member of the New South Wales parliament all because, so far, he’d said favorable things about China and had traveled to the country.

The Murdoch-owned Australian newspaper reported that the office and Sydney home of NSW Labor MP Shaoquett Moselmane had been raided because he “has repeatedly praised Beijing, even describing Chinese President Xi Jingping’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic as ’emphatic’ and ‘decisive.’”

Moslemane was portrayed as an “extremely serious” threat because he had written about China: “Failure to contain the epidemic could mean thousands if not hundreds of thousands of lives would be lost. The combined phenomenal effort of the state and the people in the fight to contain the virus was breathtaking.”   The MP was also deemed a threat because, as The Australian reported: 

“In April, Mr Moselmane resigned as Upper House assistant president after being caught on camera again praising President Xi’s handling of the virus, even as concerns arose that China had underplayed the severity of the crisis.

He has also said China needed to ‘force a change to the rules and create a new world order’. Mr Moselmane was the honorary chair of the Australian Shanghainese Association and a member of the Australian Chinese Association, both linked to Beijing’s secretive network of foreign influence operations known as the United Front.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ASSANGE EXTRADITION: ’60 Minutes’ Gives Assange Fair Shake

ASSANGE EXTRADITION: ’60 Minutes’ Gives Assange Fair Shake

The Australian version of the CBS News program ’60 Minutes’ presented a segment on Julian Assange Sunday night that was missing the usual mainstream media smears and distortions about his case.

Consortium News

Australia’s 60 Minutes newsmagazine Sunday night aired an extensive interview with Stella Morris, Julian Assange’s partner, and featured the two boys the couple have had together.  While the promos for the segment during the week indicated it would focus on salacious questions such as, “How does one get pregnant in an embassy?” and “Did Pamela Anderson give your relationship cover?,” the 24-minute spot ditched the usual smears against the imprisoned WikiLeaks publisher and instead humanized him to a large national audience. 

The segment made clear Assange was never charged with rape in Sweden, was only wanted for questioning, and that that inquiry has been closed. It reports that the CIA surveilled Assange 24/7 in the embassy, including on privileged conversations with his lawyers; that the CIA plotted to kidnap Assange, poison him and steal one of his boy’s diapers for DNA to prove it was his child. The interview with Australian MP Andrew Wilkie makes clear why the U.S. espionage charges against Assange are really an assault on journalism.

The program ends with an appeal from Morris to Australian prime minister Scott Morrison to apply pressure on the British government to release Assange from high-security Belmarsh prison where he is isolated 23-hours a day on remand waiting a decision on a U.S. extradition request.

An article Monday in Australia’s Murdoch papers about the 60 Minutes’ report was largely factual, except that it repeated the canard that Assange faced rape “charges” in Sweden. 

WikiLeaks, Christine Assange, Julian’s mother, and Assange supporters have tweeted recognition that this was a mainstream treatment of the Assange case like few others. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australia outsources its oil reserve problem to the US

Australia outsources its oil reserve problem to the US

From the Energy Minister’s media release:

Australia to boost fuel security and establish national oil reserve

The Australian Government is boosting the nation’s long-term fuel security by taking advantage of dramatic falls in global oil prices and building on our historic agreement with the United States to access their Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Australia has been negotiating access to the SPR since 2018, with Minister Taylor and US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette signing the first arrangement of its kind to facilitate this deal in March of this year.

Australia will spend $94 million to buy oil at the current low global prices. Australia has access to hold oil in the US SPR for an initial period of 10 years.

https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/australia-boost-fuel-security-and-establish-national-oil-reserve

Fig 1: Location of SPR caverns

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/02/f59/EXEC-2018-001277%20-%202017%20SPR%20Report.pdf

Bryan Mound: Freeport, 19 caverns, 247 MMbbl

Big Hill: 14 caverns, 170 MMbbl

West Hackberry:  21 caverns, 220 MMbbl

Bayou Choctaw: Mississippi,  9 caverns, 76 MMbbl

Drawdown rates and type of oil see Fig 12

Australia boosts oil reserves, but how many barrels does $94 million get?

24/4/2020

Federal Minister for Energy Angus Taylor told ABC News Breakfast on Thursday the country would go through about 1 million barrels — roughly 159 million litres — a day. This figure has been consistent for at least the past five years according to the Australian Petroleum Statistics.

On Thursday, crude oil was trading at roughly $22 per barrel in Australia, which resulted in roughly 4.2 million barrels for a $94 million purchase. So, Australia has purchased roughly four to five days’ worth of crude oil from the United States.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/explainer3a-australia27s-oil-purchase/12177060

In fact, consumption of petroleum products has been increasing (before Corona virus):

Fig 2: Fuel consumption

But the SPR is about replacing lost crude oil imports, not product imports.

Fig 3: Australia’s crude imports by country

Crude imports from neighbouring Asian countries have been in decline for 10 years because production in these countries has peaked as shown in this graph:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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