Home » Posts tagged 'asia-pacific'

Tag Archives: asia-pacific

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

Russia and China display strategic coordination in Asia-Pacific

July 29, 2019

Russia and China display strategic coordination in Asia-Pacific

Russian Tu-95 MS (above) & Chinese Xian H-6 strategic bombers. File photo 

An exciting new template has appeared in the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific last week when Russia’s Aerospace Force and China’s Air Force carried out their first-ever joint air patrol in the region.

Steadily and imperceptibly but profoundly, the regional alignments are transforming. Russia and China routinely claim that their entente is neither a military alliance nor is directed against any third country. Yet, the alchemy of that relationship is undergoing a huge transformation, stemming out of a conscious decision by their top leaderships. 

The so-called joint patrol last Tuesday involved Russia’s Tu-95MS strategic bombers and the H-6K aircraft on China’s part. The Tupolov Tu-95MS (which NATO calls the ‘Bear’) is a is a large, four-engine turboprop-powered strategic bomber and missile platform to carry the new Russian Kh-101/102 stealth cruise missile, which uses use radio-radar equipment and target-acquiring/navigation system based on GLONASS. The ‘Bear’ used to be a veritable icon of the Cold War as it performed a maritime surveillance and targeting mission for other aircraft, surface ships and submarines and a versatile bomber that would deliver the thermonuclear bomb.

China’s H-6K is a heavily redesigned version of the ‘Bear’, capable of carrying air launched cruise missiles. According to the Pentagon, the bomber gives China a “long-range standoff offensive air capability” with precision-guided munitions. Russia and China deployed two each of the Tu-95MS and H-6K strategic bombers in the air patrol on Tuesday. 

According to a Russian Defence Ministry statement, the air patrol was undertaken on the “planned route over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea.” The statement added that the joint air patrol was intended to strengthen Russian-Chinese relations and raise the level of interaction between the armed forces of both countries, in particular, to expand their capabilities for joint operations. 

Significantly, the Russian statement  said that another goal of the joint patrol is “strengthening global strategic stability.” 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Withdrawal from INF Treaty: Implications for Asia Pacific

October 23, 2018

US Withdrawal from INF Treaty: Implications for Asia Pacific

US Withdrawal from INF Treaty: Implications for Asia Pacific

One of the motives behind the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty is its desire to acquire first-strike capability against Russia from Europe, while keeping intact its strategic nuclear arsenal. Another motivation is the need to keep China, America’s fiercest geopolitical challenger, in its crosshairs by forcing it to alter its foreign, defense, and trade policies in order to tip the balance in Washington’s favor. The capability to knock out key infrastructure sites with precision intermediate-range strikes deep inside China, not just in the coastal provinces, is one way to make Beijing more tractable on key issues and force a rollback of its global influence. In April, Adm. Harry Harris, the commander of US Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the US should renegotiate the INF Treaty to better compete with China. The admiral knew what he was talking about.

China has developed the DF-26 “aircraft carrier-killer” ballistic missile that has now rendered the old US strategy ineffective. Zachary Keck of the National Interest believes the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile could stop the US Navy in its tracks without firing a shot. That threat has to be countered and one way to do it is by knocking it out with land-based, highly accurate missiles. Such systems are cheaper than aircraft carriers and can do the job without exposing thousands of servicemen to the missile threat if used for a first strike. China has been testing a new nuclear-capable, air-launched ballistic missile constructed on the basis of the DF-21 that will help that country improve its warfighting capabilities. Beijing also boasts land-based mobile missile systems (LBMMS) with DF-10 cruise missiles that have a maximum range of 1,500 to 2,000 km. China has to defend itself, and fielding these systems is the only way that it can counteract America’s huge sea, space, and air advantages.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak oil in Asia Pacific (part 1)

June 19, 2018

Peak oil in Asia Pacific (part 1)

This post uses data released by the BP Statistical Review in June 2018

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

Oil production seems to have left its bumpy 6 year long (2010-2015) plateau of 8.4 mb/d and is now back to 2004 levels of 7.9 mb/d, a decline of 6% over 2 years.

Asia_oil_production_1965-2017Fig 1: Oil production in Asia –Pacific

Asia_incr-oil_production_2004-2017Fig 2: Incremental oil production

Base production is the sum of the minimum production levels in each country during the period under consideration. Incremental production is the production above that base production. In this way we clearly see that the peak was shaped by China, sitting on a declining wedge of all other Asian countries together. Note that growing production in Thailand and India could not stop that decline. Now let’s look at the other side of the coin, consumption:

Asia_oil_consumption_1965-2017Fig 3: Asia’s oil consumption growth

There has been a relentless increase in consumption since the mid 80s. The growth rate after the financial crisis in 2008 was an average of 3% pa.

China_oil_consumption_growth_2000-17Fig 4: Chinese oil consumption growth rates

Chinese annual oil consumption growth rates have been quite variable between 2% and a whopping 16% in 2004 which contributed to high oil prices. Fig 4 also shows there is little correlation between GDP growth and oil consumption growth (statistical problems?). There is nothing in this graph that could tell us that the Chinese economy has a consistent trend to become less dependent on oil. In the years since 2011, oil consumption growth was around 60% of GDP growth.

Let’s compare China with the US. China’s oil consumption is catching up fast with US consumption.

Comparison_oil_prod-cons_US-China_1965-2017Fig 5: Oil production and consumption: US vs China

On current trends, China’s oil consumption would reach US consumption levels of 20 mb/d in just 14 years.

Comparison_oil-im[ports_US-China_2000-17Fig 6: US and Chinese net oil imports

Contrary to misinformation by the media, the US is still a net importer of oil. Even blind Freddy can see that there will be intense competition for oil on global markets.

Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2017_fill_in-2037Fig 7: Oil supply gap for the Asia Pacific

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

China Prepares For New Cold War With Massive Military Buildup

March 2, 2018

China Prepares For New Cold War With Massive Military Buildup

As we have been documenting for quite some time, China has been not-so-quietly transforming itself into a serious threat to the West – beefing up its military to contend with the Washington’s air, sea, space and cyber weapons capabilities, while scrapping constitutional term limits for President Xi Jinping.

Since 2000, China has built more submarines, destroyers, frigates and corvettes than Japan, South Korea and India combined. To put this further into perspective, the total tonnage of new warships and auxiliaries launched by China in the last four years alone is significantly greater than the total tonnage of the French navy. –IISS

Analysts on both sides of the Pacific believe Xi’s aggressive military buildup and power grab have put Beijing on a direct course for conflict with Washington – with the heavy U.S. presence in the region setting the stage for a new Cold War.

“In the Asia-Pacific, the dominant role of the United States in a political and military sense will have to be readjusted,” said Cui Liru, former president of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank under the Ministry of State Security that often reflects official thinking. “It doesn’t mean U.S. interests must be sacrificed. But if the U.S. insists on a dominant role forever, that’s a problem.” Cui added that it was “not normal for China to be under U.S. dominance forever. You can’t justify dominance forever.”

“China’s military objective is to break through the first chain of islands,” said Mr. Cui, referring to the waters beyond Japan and Taiwan where the Chinese military wants to establish a presence. –NYT

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Navy Considers Setting Up Ship Base in Australia

February 10, 2015

U.S. Navy Considers Setting Up Ship Base in Australia

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. is in talks with Australia about “basing” Navy vessels in its main South Pacific ally, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert said, a move that would risk inflaming tensions with China.

“We’re doing a study together with the Australia Defence Force to see what might be feasible for naval cooperation in and around Australia, which might include basing ships,” Admiral Greenert said during a speech Tuesday at a university in Canberra. It was unclear if Greenert was referring to permanent basing or rotational placement of ships.

U.S. is in the midst of a “pivot-to-Asia” that will see 60 percent of its naval forces deployed in the region by 2020, a response to its growing strategic importance. It’s a policy China claims is an attempt to contain its own military expansion into the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

“Increasingly the Indian Ocean is becoming a geostrategic hot spot,” said Rosita Dellios, an associate professor of international relations at Bond University on Australia’s Gold Coast. “Africa, India, the Gulf states all share the Indian Ocean and Australia is an important player.”

China sent submarines into the India Ocean last year, with one visiting a Sri Lankan port near India’s coast in a show of power that unsettled Indian leaders. China is also promoting a “Maritime Silk Road” that would see it developing ports and infrastructure in Indian Ocean countries including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Pakistan.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress