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Trump On Path for War With Iran in the “National Interest”

July 16, 2018

Trump On Path for War With Iran in the “National Interest”

Trump’s Iran policy not only has US allies hopping mad, it also has us on a path towards another major Mideast war.

“We will seek to provide unprecedented financial pressure on the Iranian regime,” the U.S. said, rebuffing Britain, France, and Germany which requested sanction exemptions.

The United States has rejected an appeal from Britain, France and Germany to grant broad exemptions to European firms doing business in Iran, saying it would press ahead with sanctions intended to exert “unprecedented” economic pressure on the Tehran regime, U.S. and Western officials told NBC News.

The letter from the Trump administration marks the latest dispute in an increasingly tense U.S. relationship with European allies, aggravated by the president’s harsh criticism of NATO partnersthis week during his visit to Brussels.

According to a report in Axios, Israel and the United States formed a joint working group in recent months to help support internal opposition to the Tehran regime. And at a press conference in Brussels on Thursday, Trump said that that “there might be an escalation between us and the Iranians.”

Pompeo has unveiled plans for a major address on July 22 entitled “Supporting Iranian Voices” after having issued a series of tweets endorsing Iranian protests and pointing to high unemployment among the country’s youth. “People are tired of the corruption, injustice & incompetence of their leaders. The world hears their voice,” Pompeo wrote on June 27.

Path Towards War

In an Atlantic Op-Ed, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine says Don’t Let Trump Go to War With Iran.

The decision of the United States to wage war against Iraq in 2003 was one of the worst mistakes our country has ever made. Was Saddam Hussein a brutal dictator?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hyperinflation Avoidance Advice for Turkish Citizens as Fitch Cuts Ratings

July 16, 2018

Hyperinflation Avoidance Advice for Turkish Citizens as Fitch Cuts Ratings

Turkey is on a path towards hyperinflation. Here are the steps Turkish citizens should make ASAP.

Citing stability risks, Fitch Cuts Turkey’s Credit Rating to BB, further into junk territory.

  • Risks to macroeconomic stability have intensified owing to the widening in the current account deficit, more challenging global external financing environment, jump in inflation and the impact of the plunge in the exchange rate on the private sector: Fitch
  • Economic policy credibility has deteriorated in recent months and initial policy actions following elections in June have heightened uncertainty, the rating agency said in a statement
  • Fitch expects CAD to widen to 6.1% of GDP in 2018, driven by higher fuel prices, and in 1H, higher household consumption
  • Fitch forecasts annual average inflation to be more than double the current BB range median, at 13% in 2018 and 10.8% in 2019
  • Outlook on the rating is negative

Heading for Hyperinflation

Turkey isn’t close to hyperinflation yet. But the path it’s on is a guaranteed way to get there.

Turkey on Venezuela’s Path

  1. Erdogan jailed political opponents
  2. Parliament effectively made Erdogan prime minister for life
  3. Erdogan took over the press
  4. Erdogan took over the courts
  5. Erdogan took over finance
  6. Erdogan about to take over the central bank

Hyperinflation Nearly Inevitable

Venezuela did not hop straight into hyperinflation and Turkey likely won’t either.

However, if Turkey remains on the same path, which seems highly likely, hyperinflation is the inevitable outcome.

Lira

​

Advice for Turkish Citizens

  • Prepare for hyperinflation
  • Get your money out of Turkish banks ASAP
  • Convert all existing savings into a basket of US dollars, gold and silver.
  • Borrow as much Turkish Lira as you can
  • Invest it in a basket of US dollars, Gold, and Silver

Hyperinflation is complete loss of faith in currency. It’s inevitably starts off as a series of political as opposed to monetary events.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Eurointelligence Displays Stunning Ignorance Regarding Target2

July 13, 2018

Eurointelligence Displays Stunning Ignorance Regarding Target2

On two recent days, Eurointellence made stunningly bad comments about the escalating capital flight from Italy.

The latest Target2 Chart from the ECB is from May. Newer totals are available in some individual countries.

Debtors, primarily Italy and Spain, now owe Germany close to €1 trillion. Realistically, this money cannot and will not be paid back except by a central bank bailout.

Yet, Eurointelligence whitewashed this as no big deal.

July 9 – German Panic About Target2

The German debate on the balances of the Target2 payment clearing system continues to rage. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand, the Bundesbank’s Target2 credit with the Eurosystem was over €976bn at the end of June, and is within weeks of exceeding the symbolic figure of one trillion. On the other hand, Germans have taken notice of Paolo Savona’s plan B for Italy to exit the euro, which involved defaulting on Italy’s external debt including its Target2 balance which is under €481bn and growing. In this context Peter Boehringer, the AfD MP and chair of the Bundestag’s budget committee, has criticised Olaf Scholz in a budget debate for making no risk provisions for the possibility of default on Target2 claims. Frankfurter Allgemeine has also spoken to Christian Dürr, the deputy leader of the FDP group in the Bundestag, who says it’s about time the finance minister put on the political agenda the threat of a default on the German taxpayer. The position of the CDU group is that the situation will correct itself because of the coming end of the ECB’s asset purchase programme, and trust in the eurozone’s southern states returning as a result of the ongoing economic recovery.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Congressman Alex Mooney’s Bill Defines the Dollar as a Unit of Gold

July 9, 2018

Congressman Alex Mooney’s Bill Defines the Dollar as a Unit of Gold

This story came out in March, but I just now caught it. I salute Mooney for wording the legislation correctly.

HR 5404 A bill to define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold was introduced to the Committee on Financial Services on 22nd March 2018 by congressman Alex Mooney.

Here is the actual HR5404 Bill.

Key Item

“Effective 30 months after the date of enactment of this Act – (1) the secretary of the Treasury shall define the dollar in terms of a fixed weight of gold, based on that day’s closing market price of gold; and (2) Federal Reserve Banks shall make the Federal Reserve notes exchangeable with gold at the statutory gold definition for the dollar.”

That is how it must work. Mooney did not make the mistake of setting a price for gold. He correctly defined the dollar as a unit of weight.

Thoughts

Supposing HR5404 gets signed into law in 6 months, that would mean that the US would need to transfer to a gold standard by Spring 2021. The mere passing of this bill would send gold rocketing over the next few years and, assuming the US gold stocks are intact, it would neutralise the national debt. While there is no mention of the national debt in the bill, this is clearly a major benefit of a gold standard to the US administration. However, as the gold price rises against federal reserve notes, so does everything else, which means the public worldwide would suffer crippling inflation if they hold FRN dollars and other fiat currencies.

The price of gold would certainly skyrocket, but it is not necessarily so that national debt would be extinguished. However, it is clear that any countries that do not have gold reserves would be severely punished.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Housing Bubble and Everything Bubble in One Simple Picture

July 8, 2018

Housing Bubble and Everything Bubble in One Simple Picture

To understand the magnitude of the housing bubbles simply compare the index of wages to the index of prices.

How Did We Get Here?

That’s easy.

​

Average Wages vs CPI

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Note the correct CPU comparison for this chart is CPI-W not CPI-U, not that it matters much.

No matter what official CPI one uses, the chart is a joke. Why? The CPI only reflects rent, not actual housing prices.

The Fed made this mistake during the housing bubble and they made it again from 2011 to present.

More bubbles will burts and that is very deflationary. By chasing its tail, the Fed creates the very conditions it seeks to prevent.

Price Deflation Not a Problem

For years, the Fed desperately sought more inflation. However, a BIS Study on the Historical Costs of Deflation shows routine price deflation is not a problem.

According to the BIS, “Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive.”

Meanwhile, people keep faith in the Phillips’ Curve. It’s pathetic.

Related Articles

King Trump Shouts at the Ocean: Stop the Waves

July 6, 2018

King Trump Shouts at the Ocean: Stop the Waves

Trump believes all he has to do to make things happen is to issue an ultimatum. One Tweet will explain.

✔

The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!

Image modified from King Cnut and the Waves.

Hello Mr,. President gas prices are up because of your absurd embargo on Iran.

And here’s the deal: The more effective your embargo, the higher gas prices will go.

I have a suggestion. Please study Econ 101.

Meanwhile, please note that shouting at waves will not produce results.

Trump Firmly In the Twilight Zone: Threatens Nord Stream 2 With Sanctions

June 29, 2018

Trump Firmly In the Twilight Zone: Threatens Nord Stream 2 With Sanctions

Trump’s vise on the EU started with steel, progressed to cars, then to Iran, and now to a gas pipeline vital to the EU.

The story of the day, not discussed in mainstream media, involves Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline between Russia and the EU. The feature image is from Gazprom.

Gazprom says “The new pipeline, similar to the one in operation, will establish a direct link between Gazprom and the European consumers. It will also ensure a highly reliable supply of Russian gas to Europe.”

Some suggest the EU is unwise to depend on Russia. That is nonsense. Why?

Free trade stops wars!

Regardless, it is the EU’s decision to make, not Trump’s, and the deal is already underway.

Gazprom, Partners Invest €4.8 Billion Nord Stream 2 Construction

Believe that? Why not? There is no dispute from the EU.

My point is the investment.

Russia’s gas producer Gazprom and its Nord Stream 2 partners have invested a total of 4.8 bln euro in the project on natural gas pipeline construction as of the end of June, Chief Financial Officer of Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the pipeline construction, Paul Corcoran told journalists on Thursday.

“We have received 96% of the pipes, we have concrete coated 55% of those pipes and we mobilized vessels for the pipelines. So we are quite well prepared on track and on time for the project,” CFO added.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is expected to come into service at the end of 2019.

Stop It All Says Trump

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Donald of Arabia, Oil Sanction Idiocy: Another Oil Shock Coming

June 28, 2018

Donald of Arabia, Oil Sanction Idiocy: Another Oil Shock Coming

I did not believe Trump would be so foolish as to force the entire world to accept Iranian sanctions. I was wrong.

Here’s my general policy: When you are wrong, it’s best to admit it or someone will admit it for you, in a worse way.

I was wrong about how far Trump would carry his foolish policy on Iran.

Hedgeye energy analyst Joe McMonigle got it correct as this Energy Flashback shows.

Choking Point

Yesterday, Trump tightened the noose on Iran. How tight?

The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and Trump Administration officials have explained that primary and secondary sanctions will be reimposed after 90- or 180-day “wind-down” periods, depending on the business activity, and that failure to halt sanctioned activity by the end of the wind-down period would risk “severe consequences.”

President Trump’s NSPM indicates that “all” of the sanctions waived or lifted under the JCPOA will be reimposed. These changes most likely will be implemented through new Executive Orders (EOs) from the president; termination of the periodic statutory sanctions waivers that have been issued by the Secretary of State; and changes to licenses, licensing policy, and the SDN list that will be made by OFAC. While there are numerous questions still outstanding about how the new sanctions may be implemented on a practical level, it is clear that the greatest impact of the reimposition of the sanctions will be on non-US entities, including non-US entities owned or controlled by US persons.

Sanctions Subject to 90-Day Wind-Down

  • The purchase or acquisition of US dollar banknotes by the Government of Iran
  • Iran’s trade in gold or precious metals
  • The direct or indirect sale, supply, or transfer to or from Iran of graphite, raw, or semi-finished metals such as aluminum and steel, coal, and software for integrating industrial processes

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Economic War on Iran: Trump Sets Sanction Policy for Entire World

June 27, 2018

Economic War on Iran: Trump Sets Sanction Policy for Entire World

Trump will grant no waivers on purchases of Iranian oil. Effectively, this is an economic declaration of war on Iran.

Starting November 4, Trump threatens sanctions on any nation or company that trades with Iran.

Effectively, Trump sets sanction policy for the whole world, by proclamation.

Trump’s actions constitute an economic declaration of war on Iran. Any country that does not comply with his mandates will also be at war.

Deadline November 4

The U.S. is pressing allies to end all imports of Iranian oil by a Nov. 4 deadline and doesn’t want to offer any extensions or waivers as it follows through on President Donald Trump’s decision to quit the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a State Department official said.

When Trump announced the U.S. was quitting the nuclear accord he warned that other nations would face sanctions unless they stopped trading with the Islamic Republic. Iran reached the 2015 agreement, which called for it to curb its nuclear program in return for the easing of sanctions, with the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, China and Russia.

Saudi Arabia has a maximum production capacity of just above 12 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. If Iran exports drop more than one million barrels a day, Riyadh is likely to have to pump at maximum capacity for the first time since the late 1960s.

“If Saudi Arabia can not offset the loss of Iranian oil, then Washington could always tap into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So could China,” said Jan Stuart, an oil economist at consultant Cornerstone Macro LLC in New York.

Zero Tolerance

The Wall Street Journal says U.S. Signals Zero Tolerance on Future Iran Oil Exports:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece Economic Crisis Declared Over: It Isn’t

June 23, 2018

Greece Economic Crisis Declared Over: It Isn’t

Mainstream media is all aglow over the alleged end of the Greek economic crisis. Mainstream media is wrong.

Can-Kicking Deal

This was another can-kicking announcement according to Eurointelligence.

Here it is. Finally, a deal on debt relief for Greece. It is a fudge of sorts, but a deal that ends the eight-year-long Greek debt crisis – for now. These are the main components of the deal:

  • A €15bn loan disbursement at the end of the programme, of which €3.3bn can be used to buy back IMF loans;
  • A 10-year extension of the EFSF loans, and a ten-year deferral of interest payments and amortization starting from 2033; and
  • A return of profits from Greek bonds (SMP and ANFA) held by Eurozone central banks, a total of €4bn, with semi-annual payments and subject to reform targets.

There is no growth clause, no interest-rate cuts, no major buyback programme. This is not debt relief in the way the IMF defines it, but debt relief of the kicking-the-can-the-road variety.

It also leaves Greece with a significant exposure to IMF loans. Even if Greece were to use the €3.3bn to buy back IMF loans, that still leaves €7.1bn to be repaid by 2024.

The IMF abstained almost entirely from the debate as it is now officially leaving the programme and will only participate in the post-memorandum oversight, writes Kathimerini. Christine Lagarde refused to make any statements about Greece. What this means for the IMF role after the programme ends is yet to be seen.

So this is it, after eight years, three bailout programmes and endless eurogroup meetings. And with debt nearly at 180% of GDP, there is still the potential for things to turn wrong. But for now, everyone seems happy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trade End Game Scenarios: Boycott Treasuries vs Yuan Devaluation

June 21, 2018

Trade End Game Scenarios: Boycott Treasuries vs Yuan Devaluation

Since there is no longer any reasonable debate about a trade war having started, let’s investigate how it ends.

End Game Analysis

The end-game retaliation comes via a global boycott of the Treasury auctions. Foreign entities fund half the US fiscal deficit, which is set to double. Imagine the locals funding their own budget gap!

This forces the savings rate up at the expense of spending. Recession follows.

Treasury Boycott Thesis

I am surprised that Rosenberg brings this up because in my mind, this hash has been settled long ago.

What exactly would China, Japan, and Germany do with their reserves and ongoing trade surplus? Mathematically they have to do something.

Historically, that something has been to buy treasuries. But I suppose China could buy could be gold or US equities. The latter would be smack in the middle of an obvious bubble.

And if China were to dump US treasuries, the alleged nuclear option, it would serve to strengthen the Yuan. Recall that China sold US treasuries to support the Yuan and stop capital flight. In a trade war, China would not want an appreciating currency!

I think Rosenberg proposes nonsense, but given the nonsensical actions of Trump, I cannot rule out nonsensical or illogical responses.

This leads us to the most logical real threat.

Yuan Devaluation Thesis

China cannot retaliate with enough tariffs on its own to combat tariffs imposed by the US. Hower, the yuan does not float. China could devalue the yuan enough to counteract the value of US tariffs.

Of course, Trump could ban Chinese imports in response, but prices at Walmart, Costco, Target, everywhere, would skyrocket.

This scenario is nearly the opposite of what Rosenberg suggests. It is also far more credible.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India Joins the Tariff War: The Party is Just Starting!

June 19, 2018

India Joins the Tariff War: The Party is Just Starting!

In response to Trump’s tariffs on steel, India will put tariffs on Harley motorcycles, lentils, and almonds.

Following the well-established belief that “trade wars are easy to win”, India counters Trump tariffs, to hike duty on US bikes, almonds, apples.

India has proposed to raise import duty on 30 products, ranging from motorcycles and certain iron and steel goods to boric acid and lentils. The customs duty on some of the items may be raised up to 50 per cent, in a signal that New Delhi will hit back at America’s protectionist policies that range from a tighter visa regime to higher import duties.

The additional duty proposed to be hiked on these items ranges from 10 per cent to 50 per cent. Those at the lowest include almonds, walnuts and fresh apples – which will cost a little more for consumers as an additional duty of 10 percent is proposed to be imposed.

But the real impact will be on products such as motorcycles over 800 cc – a move targeted at Harley-Davidson – where an additional duty of 50 percent has been proposed. This is seen as a real counter to President Donald Trump who had demanded a reduction in tariff on the cult bike brand.

The government threatened further action. “India reserves its right to further suspend substantially equivalent concessions and other obligations based on the trade impact resulting from the application of the measures of the US,” it added.

Let It All Hang Out

Party Just Starting

It’s so easy when it’s all easy. As Trump says “Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win”

The party is just starting. Who’s next?

Related Articles

NY Fed President Dudley Complains Unemployment is Too Low, Rate Hikes Needed

June 16, 2018

NY Fed President Dudley Complains Unemployment is Too Low, Rate Hikes Needed

NY Fed President William Dudley is worried about the low unemployment rate. He thinks the Fed needs to be above neutral.

New York Fed President William Dudley will retire Monday. Current San Francisco Fed chief John Williams will take over.

“The federal funds rate will probably have to climb a little bit above neutral, because the unemployment rate is already — from most people’s vantage points — below a sustainable level of unemployment consistent with stable inflation,” Dudley told reporters Friday. “So, I think the move will be eventually to a slightly tight monetary policy.”

“I’m sort of expecting that the peak in the federal funds rate in this cycle will be lower than in past cycles, but I have quite a bit of uncertainty about that,” Dudley said during a conference call.

The unemployment rate is too low now, so we need to hike.

Last year he said consumers should “unlock” housing equity to boost the economy.

“The previous behavior of using housing debt to finance other kinds of consumption seems to have completely disappeared,” and people are leaving the wealth generated by rising home prices “locked up” in their homes.

“A return to a reasonable pattern of home equity extraction would be a positive development for retailers, and would provide a boost to economic growth.”

Dudley is a real gem. He will be missed for the comedy he provides.

Free Money Calculation: Fed Will Give $36.93 Billion of Taxpayer Money to Banks

June 14, 2018

Free Money Calculation: Fed Will Give $36.93 Billion of Taxpayer Money to Banks

The Fed upped the interest it pays on excess reserves to 1.95% today. This is free money (taxpayer funded) to banks.

The Fed bumped up the interest it pays on excess reserves today to 1.95%. Currently, excess reserves sit at $1.894 trillion.

The math is simple enough. At the current rate, the Fed will hand over approximately $36.93 billion of taxpayer money to banks. That assumes the status quo, but things will change.

Factors

  1. The Fed is shrinking its balance sheet slowly. That reduces excess reserves the Fed pays interest rates on.
  2. When the Fed hikes interest rates, it also increases the interest it pays on excess reserves.

The first point acts to reduce free money, the second acts to increase free money.

Note to ECB

If you want to recapitalize Italian banks, just give them free money instead of your profit-reducing policy of holding rates negative.

Taxpayer money?

Yes! Otherwise the Fed would return this money to the US Treasury.

Some claim free money is paying banks to not lend. The claim is fallacious. Banks do not lend from excess reserves.

That was the amount I calculated on April 17, 2017. Interest then was 1.0%.

Even though the Fed’s balance sheet is lower, the increased rate bumped up the free money calculation to $36.93 billion.

No Outrage!

Why isn’t $36.93 billion in free money to banks an outrage?

Brazil Steps Up Intervention to Support the Real: Reflections on Currency Wars

June 6, 2018

Brazil Steps Up Intervention to Support the Real: Reflections on Currency Wars

Winning currency wars is easy. As with trade wars, one may not care for the end result.

Brazil’s central bank bolstered efforts to shore up the currency after it tumbled to the weakest level since former President Dilma Rousseff’s tumultuous impeachment in 2016.

The real has weakened 12 percent since the end of March, the worst performance among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, as investors grow concerned that October elections could usher in a new president less attuned to investors and business. Fear that moves seen as key to fixing fiscal problems would be derailed have exacerbated what’s already been a lackluster year in emerging markets. The real fell 0.9 percent to 3.7791 per dollar as of 11:55 a.m. in New York, and earlier reached 3.8056, the weakest since March 2016.

Brazil Declares Currency War

Brazil has declared a fresh “currency war” on the US and Europe, extending a tax on foreign borrowings and threatening further capital controls in an effort to protect the country’s struggling manufacturers.

Guido Mantega, the finance minister who was the first to use the controversial term in 2010, said the government would not “sit by passively” as developed nations continue to pursue expansionary monetary policies at the expense of Brazil.

“When the real appreciates, it reduces our competitiveness. Exports are more expensive, imports are cheaper and it creates unfair competition for businesses in Brazil,” he said on Thursday after announcing changes to the so-called IOF tax.

What a Hoot

Note the irony. The Brazil currency war was really about trade.

This was my comment at the time: “Mathematically speaking, the desire for every country to be net exporters is impossible. Massive trade wars are on the horizon as a result.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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