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Tag Archives: project syndicate
Time for Helicopter Money?
Time for Helicopter Money? WASHINGTON, DC – “Out of ammo?” The Economist recently asked of monetary policymakers. Stephen Roach has called the move by major central banks – including the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Sweden – to negative real (and, in some cases, even nominal) interest rates a “futile” effort that merely sets […]
2008 Revisited?
2008 Revisited? NEW YORK – The question I am asked most often nowadays is this: Are we back to 2008 and another global financial crisis and recession? My answer is a straightforward no, but that the recent episode of global financial market turmoil is likely to be more serious than any period of volatility and […]
Whose QE Was it, Anyway?
Whose QE Was it, Anyway? Spanning a decade (2003-2013), QE0 was the most sustained and uninterrupted surge in central banks’ purchases of Treasuries on record. It is difficult to determine the extent to which the Fed’s QE1 during the crisis owed its success in bringing interest rates down to the fact that it was being […]
Venezuela Could Be The Future of Western Civilization
Venezuela Could Be The Future of Western Civilization If anyone wants to see where western civilization is headed they need only to look at Venezuela today. The Bolivar has gone from 6.3 per dollar to 1,000 per dollar in the past few years. Last year farmers were ordered to turn over certain crops to the government […]
Central Banking Goes Negative
Central Banking Goes Negative NEW HAVEN – In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates – one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first […]
The Negative Rates Club
The Negative Rates Club BRUSSELS – For the better part of a decade, central banks have been making only limited headway in curbing powerful global deflationary forces. Since 2008, the US Federal Reserve has maintained zero interest rates, while pursuing multiple waves of unprecedented balance-sheet expansion through large-scale bond purchases. The Bank of England, the […]
The Global Economy’s New Abnormal
The Global Economy’s New Abnormal NEW YORK – Since the beginning of the year, the world economy has faced a new bout of severe financial market volatility, marked by sharply falling prices for equities and other risky assets. A variety of factors are at work: concerns about a hard landing for the Chinese economy; worries that growth […]
The Death Throes of Oil
The Death Throes of Oil PRINCETON – The price of oil is often regarded as a sort of thermometer to measure the health of the world economy. What is less often noted is that it can also serve as a barometer – warning of approaching geopolitical storms. Indeed, the dramatic plunge in the price of […]
Welcome to the Twenty-First Century
Welcome to the Twenty-First Century BERLIN – The start of 2016 has been anything but calm. Falling equity prices in China have destabilized markets worldwide. Emerging economies seem to have stalled. The price of oil has plunged, pushing petroleum producers into crisis. North Korea is flexing its nuclear muscles. And in Europe, the ongoing refugee […]
The Varoufakis Effect?
The Varoufakis Effect? ATHENS – In his end-of-2015 missive, Holger Schmieding of the Hamburg investment bank Berenberg warned his firm’s clients that what they should be worrying about now is political risk. To illustrate, he posted the diagram below, showing how business confidence collapsed in Greece during the late spring of 2015, and picked up again only […]
Extreme Weather and Global Growth
Extreme Weather and Global Growth CAMBRIDGE – Until recently, the usual thinking among macroeconomists has been that short-term weather fluctuations don’t matter much for economic activity. Construction hiring may be stronger than usual in a March when the weather is unseasonably mild, but there will be payback in April and May. If heavy rains discourage […]
The New Geo-Economics
The New Geo-Economics COLOMBO, SRI LANKA – Last year was a memorable one for the global economy. Not only was overall performance disappointing, but profound changes – both for better and for worse – occurred in the global economic system. Most notable was the Paris climate agreement reached last month. By itself, the agreement is far […]
Greece’s Two Currencies
Greece’s Two Currencies ATHENS – Imagine a depositor in the US state of Arizona being permitted to withdraw only small amounts of cash weekly and facing restrictions on how much money he or she could wire to a bank account in California. Such capital controls, if they ever came about, would spell the end of […]
The Global Monetary Non-System
The Global Monetary Non-System NEW DELHI – As 2015 ended, the world boasted few areas of robust growth. At a time when both developed and emerging-market countries need rapid growth to maintain domestic stability, this is a dangerous situation. It reflects a variety of factors, including low productivity growth in industrial countries, the debt overhang […]
Can the UK Survive Brexit?
Can the UK Survive Brexit? LONDON – The upcoming referendum on the United Kingdom’s continued membership in the European Union, almost certain to be held this year, could turn out to be yet another major catastrophe to hit Europe. If, as seems increasingly plausible, British voters chose to leave, the result would be a profoundly […]
