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World stocks slumped, European assets sold off and the Euro dropped to a three week low on Tuesday after anti-euro comments from an Italian party official sent renewed shockwaves across Europe and the globe, and pushed Italy’s bond yields up to multi-year highs.

Italian asset tumbled for a second day, after the economic head of the ruling League party and head of lower house budget committee – and a well-known euroskeptic – Claudio Borghi said that most of Italy’s problems could be solved by having its own currency: “I am more than convinced that Italy, with its own currency, would be able to resolve its problems,” Borghi said in an interview on Radio Anch’io, adding that the euro as common currency “is not sufficient” for Italy to solve fiscal issues. In kneejerk response, Italian 10Y yield continued their Monday selloff, spiking to 3.438%, the highest level since early 2014.

Borghi also said that like France, Italy shouldn’t be subject to attack from EU officials, adding that if France’s spread started widening, “at a certain point they would raise their hands and say ‘OK let’s intervene’.” He concluded that Italy would have declared a 3.1% budget deficit for 2019 instead of the 2.4% it has set, if it had wanted to go up against the EU, adding that the govt is aiming for a level that’s “enough for our country to feel a bit better.”

Borghi’s comments followed a statement by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker who compared Italy with Greece, saying “after the toughest management of the Greece crisis, we have to do everything to avoid a new Greece – this time an Italy – crisis.”

The latest comments shook markets in early trading, pushing Italian 10-year bond yields to a new 4 1/2 year high…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Stock Market Just Crashed In Italy, And Argentina Has Panic-Raised Interest Rates To 65 Percent

September 28, 2018

The Stock Market Just Crashed In Italy, And Argentina Has Panic-Raised Interest Rates To 65 Percent

In the 9th largest economy in the world, the financial markets are crashing, and in the 21st largest economy in the world the central bank just raised interest rates to 65 percent to support a currency that is completely imploding. While the mainstream media in the United States continues to be obsessed with all things Kavanaugh, an international financial crisis threatens to spiral out of control. Stock prices are falling and currencies are collapsing all over the planet, but because the U.S. has been largely unaffected so far the mainstream media is mostly choosing to ignore what is happening. But the truth is that this is serious. The financial crisis in Italy threatens to literally tear the EU apart, and South America has become an economic horror show. The situation in Brazil continues to get worse, the central bank of Argentina has just raised interest rates to 65 percent, and in Venezuela starving people are literally eating cats and dogs in order to survive. How bad do things have to get before people will start paying attention?

On Friday, Italian stocks had their worst day in more than two years, and it was the big financial stocks that were on the cutting edge of the carnage…

Shares in Italian banks .FTIT8300, whose big sovereign bond portfolios makes them sensitive to political risk, bore the brunt of selling pressure, sinking 7.3 percent as government bonds sold off and the focus turned to rating agencies.

Along with the main Italian stock index .FTMIB, the banks had their worst day since the June 2016 Brexit vote triggered a selloff across markets.

Italian bonds got hit extremely hard too. The following comes from Business Insider…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe Launches War On Italy’s Fiscal Plans: Warns Of Debt “Explosion”, Threatens Savers

September 28, 2018

Europe Launches War On Italy’s Fiscal Plans: Warns Of Debt “Explosion”, Threatens Savers

In the aftermath of Italy’s defiant announcement that it would expand its 2019 budget deficit to 2.4% of GDP, above both the initial proposal from finmin Tria which was 1.6%, and also higher than the European “redline” of 2.0%, the question was how would Europe respond to this open mutiny by Italy.

The answers started to emerge on Friday, when European Parliament head Antonio Tajani said that fiscal targets set by Italy’s eurosceptic government were “against the people” and could hit savers without creating jobs.

“I am very concerned for what is happening in Italy,” said Tajani, who is a center-right opposition politician in Italy and close ally to former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The budgetary plans “will not raise employment but will cause trouble to the savings of the Italians,” Tajani said.

“This budget is not for the people, it is against the people,” Tajani said, adding that the planned measures “will create many problems in the north (of Italy) without solving problems in the south,” which is the least developed part of the country.

Separately, Pierre Moscovici, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner, said in an interview with BFM television that “Italy, which has debt at 132 percent, chooses expansion and stimulus. It’s “a budget that looks like jaywalking, and out of line with our rules.”

As a reminder, Italy has the most public debt of any European country, surpassing both France and Germany, and its debt/GDP is the second highest in the EU after bailed-out Greece; until recently, Italy had committed for next year to a deficit three times smaller.

The verbal fireworks continued, with Moscovici reminding Italy that the only reason its “explosive” debt hasn’t collapsed is due to the ECB’s purchases, which has been actively monetizing it for the past few years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italian Stocks Crash Most In 2 Years, Bond Yields Soar Amid Budget Deficit Liquidation Panic

September 28, 2018

Italian Stocks Crash Most In 2 Years, Bond Yields Soar Amid Budget Deficit Liquidation Panic

After yesterday’s last minute decision by Italy’s ruling coalition to boost the country’s 2019 deficit to 2.4% of GDP, a number that challenged Brussels and its demands for a deficit no greater than 2.0% and made a mockery of the finance minister’s insistence on a funding hole no greater than 1.6% of GDP, we said that it was only a matter of time before the market freaked out as Italy is now on collision course with Europe, and that time came this morning when traders dumped Italian assets with the bathwater, as Italian equities, bank stocks and bonds all tumbled in unison after deputy premier Matteo Salvini vowed to “press ahead” with the controversial budget plan including a deficit that would be three times larger than the deficit under the previous administration.

Italy’s FTSE MIB stock index tumbled to session lows, down 3.7%, after opening sharply lower and failing to find a floor so far; this was the biggest intraday drop for Italian stocks since June 2016, with several banking stocks halted limit down.

The worst performing sector were Italian banks, with the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks Index falling as much as 5.3%, most since May; the biggest decliners were Banco BPM -6%, UBI -4.7%, UniCredit -3.9%, Intesa -3.5%, with most of them being halted, limit down amid the selling chaos.

The bond market was not spared, and Italy’s 10Y bond was taken to the cleaners as the relentless selling sent the yield some 36bps higher to 3.25%…

… surpassing the peaks hit during the recent two Italian liquidation panics.

Italian debt had been volatile in recent days, but rallied for much of September in anticipation economy minister Giovanni Tria would reel in the government’s spending plans. That failed to happen last night when Tria capitulated to demands by Salvini and Di Maio to boost the deficit to support populist promises for basic income which would cost some €10 billion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A League of Leagues of Their Own in Europe

September 6, 2018

A League of Leagues of Their Own in Europe

“There’s no crying in baseball!”
— A League of Their Own

The Great Realignment is coming to Europe next year. All the writing is on the wall.

This summer saw German Chancellor Angela Merkel survive a leadership challenge by her coalition partner Horst Seehofer over her immigration policy.

She needs political wins to maintain her hold on power. Standing firm against President Trump on the Nordstream 2 pipeline and having a cordial summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin is a good start.

Because most of Europe is tired of 1) Germany setting policy for the entire EU and 2) anti-Russian sanctions killing their trade.

But week-long protests in the Saxony town of Chemnitz over the stabbing of a local man are dogging her. Germany’s polling numbers continue ebbing away from Merkel.

The more she is weakened the more emboldened her opposition becomes.

Cue Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and Hungarian President Viktor Orban. They met to openly strategize over ending open migration into the EU. On the surface Italy and Hungary seem at odds on this issue.

Italy wants its borders closed and its migrants distributed throughout Europe.

Hungary steadfastly refuses to take even one migrant.

This dichotomy is what the European media and politicians think will keep these two rising titans in conflict.

But, as Mike Shedlock pointed out recently at Townhall.com, these two men have bigger goals which they are in total agreement on — securing their borders to preserve their cultural and national identities.

That’s why Salvini is calling for “A League of Leagues” across Europe. He will succeed.

This is the guy who successfully rebranded the secessionist Northern League into the MIGA party – Make Italy Great Again.

Then he and Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio navigated the Italian Swamp to form a government experts said couldn’t work, while simultaneously neutering establishment stalking horse Silvio Berlusconi.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italy’s Stagnant Economy the Most Likely Trigger to Europe’s Existential Crisis

September 5, 2018

ITALY’S STAGNANT ECONOMY THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGER TO EUROPE’S EXISTENTIAL CRISIS

With the focus on Turkey and the potential related fallout in other emerging markets in recent weeks, it is easy to forget about the Eurozone. Yet the current Italian government is likely to trigger a renewed existential crisis in the Eurozone once the Europeans return from the beach and the Italian Government comes up with a budget for 2019 which is likely to put it in direct conflict with the Maastricht Treaty.

BROKEN BRIDGES UNDER THE EURO

Italian real GDP has risen by only an annualized 0.4% since 1Q99 and is up only an annualized 0.1% in real GDP per capita.

The collapse of a motorway bridge in Genoa last month resulting in 43 deaths, and Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s exploitation of that event by blaming Brussels-imposed austerity, is a reminder of what is coming.

Having driven over that particularly rickety bridge on more than one occasion, this writer is not surprised to hear about what happened. Similarly, driving through Italy in recent years always serves as a reminder just how poor Italy has become under the euro. Remember, Italy has recorded almost no growth since the formation of the euro at the beginning of 1999, nearly 20 years ago. Italian real GDP has risen by only an annualized 0.4% since 1Q99 and is up only an annualized 0.1% in real GDP per capita terms over the same period (see following chart).

ITALY REAL GDP AND REAL GDP PER CAPITA

Source: CLSA, Datastream

The Italian issue is raised again in part because it is timely with the end of the summer holiday season. The view here remains that a systemic event in financial markets is more likely to be triggered by Italy and the Eurozone than other candidates currently discussed by pundits, be it a Donald Trump-triggered trade war, a much anticipated (by talking heads) Chinese currency collapse or overvalued Wall Street FANG stocks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italy-EU Migration Feud EU Boils Over With Italian Threats: Schengen at Risk

August 26, 2018

Italy-EU Migration Feud EU Boils Over With Italian Threats: Schengen at Risk

Italy and the EU are in a standoff setup over migration issues. Italy threatens to halt payments to the EU budget.

A migrant ship, the Diciotti, docked at the Italian port of Catania, but prime minister Luigi Di Maio threatened that Italy would cease to become a net contributor to the EU budget unless there is a fair distribution of refugees.

The EU called an emergency meeting but no action was taken.Instead, the EU rebuked Italy for making “Unacceptable Threats“.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that envoys from EU states who met in Brussels on Friday did not reach a deal to share out the 150 migrants on board the Diciotti, an Italian coastguard ship docked in Catania since Monday.

Italy will “act accordingly”, he said on Facebook, noting the EU had failed to live up to its principles of “solidarity and responsibility” and that there was a gulf “between words and actions” that is colored by “hypocrisy”.

More than 650,000 people have reached Italian shores since 2014 and Rome has begun to take a rigidly anti-immigration line, saying it will not let any more rescue ships dock unless other EU states agree to take the people in.

Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, who heads the anti-immigrant League party, has insisted they will not be allowed ashore until other EU states agree to take them in – prompting a criminal investigation into whether the migrants are being held against their will.

“Unconstructive comments, let alone threats … will not get us any closer to a solution,” [EU] spokesman Alexander Winterstein told a news conference on Friday.

Opposition lawmaker, Riccardo Magi, said most on board could qualify for asylum.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italy Threatens To Stop EU Funding Unless Other States Accept Refugees

August 23, 2018

Italy Threatens To Stop EU Funding Unless Other States Accept Refugees

Europe’s refugee mess is back with a bang.

On Thursday, out of the blue, Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio threatened to stop financial contributions to the European Union next year unless other states agreed to take in migrants being held on a coastguard ship in Sicily. The Italian’s ultimatum comes less two months after Europe triumphantly announced a “vaguely worded” deal on how to resolve the continent’s migrant influx.

“If tomorrow at the meeting of the European Commission nothing is decided on the redistribution of migrants and the Diciotti ship, I and the entire Five Star Movement are not willing to give 20 billion to the European Union,” Di Maio said in a video posted on his Facebook page.

He echoed statements by Interior Minister and Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini, who has refused to allow 177 migrants to leave the Italian coastguard ship Ubaldo Diciotti, which is docked in the Sicilian port of Catania. While Italian prosecutors opened an investigation into the detention of the migrants and 29 children were allowed to disembark, Salvini still won’t allow the rest of the people to come ashore and has attacked the EU for its “cowardly silence.”

Salvini described those aboard as “illegal immigrants,” and said they won’t be allowed to step foot on Italian soil. Instead, he insisted fellow European Union nations take in some of the asylum-seekers.

“Italy’s no longer Europe’s refugee camp,” he tweeted. “Upon my authorization, no one is disembarking from the Diciotti.”

Salvini, who is also interior minister, was defiant in the face of a criminal probe into possible kidnapping charges for forcing the migrants to remain on the vessel. The chief prosecutor from the Agrigento court, Luigi Patronaggio, on Wednesday boarded the Diciotti and said afterwards he had opened a probe against “unknown” persons for holding the migrants against their will.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Looks Like Italian Default is Back on the Menu

August 18, 2018

Looks Like Italian Default is Back on the Menu

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini was right to call out the EU over the failure of the bridge in Genoa this week. It was an act of cheap political grandstanding but one that ultimately rings very true.

It’s a perfect moment to shake people out of their complacency as to the real costs of giving up one’s financial sovereignty to someone else, in this case the Troika — European Commission, ECB and IMF.

Italy is slowly strangling to death thanks to the euro. There is no other way to describe what is happening. It’s populist coalition government understands the fundamental problems but, politically, is hamstrung to address them head on.

The political will simply isn’t there to make the break needed to put Italy truly back on the right path, i.e. leave the euro. But, as the government is set to clash with Brussels over their proposed budget the issues with the euro may come into sharper focus.

Looking at the budget it is two or three steps in the right direction — lower, flat income tax rate, not raising the VAT — but also a step or two in the wrong direction — universal income.

Opening up Italy’s markets and lowering taxpayers’ burdens is the path to sustainable, organic growth, but that is not the purpose of IMF-style austerity. It’s purpose is to do exactly what it is doing, strangling Italy to death and extracting the wealth and spirit out of the local population, c.f. Greece and before that Russia in the 1990’s.

So, looking at the situation today as the spat between Turkey and the U.S. escalates, it is obvious that Italy is in the crosshairs of any contagion effects into Europe’s banking system.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

From “Doom Loop” To Just “Doom”: Italian Debt Faces A “Huge Structural Shift”

August 16, 2018

From “Doom Loop” To Just “Doom”: Italian Debt Faces A “Huge Structural Shift”

At the start of July, we revealed that a familiar force had returned to Europe.

According to ECB data, during May when the market saw unprecedented Italian government bond turmoil, Italian bank holdings of domestic government bonds showed record buying over the month at €28.4bn, higher inflows than those seen during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2012. Visually, this is what the single biggest month of Italian bank purchases of BTPs in history looked like.

This vicious circle of Country X banks (in this case Italy) buying Country X bonds during times of stress – with the backstop of the ECB –has for years been Europe’s dreaded sovereign bank doom loop. And, as Italy clearly demonstrated, repeated and aggressive attempts by European regulators and policymakers to finally break the doom loop, most recently with the introduction of the 2014 BRRD directive, which sought which sought to remove the need for and possibility of bank bailouts, and instead ushered in bail ins, have been an abject failure.

It is also a major problem.

In a note published by Goldman on Wednesday, the bank’s Italy analyst Matteo Crimella writes that “regulatory and supervisory changes, together with the risk of a deterioration in banks’ capital ratios/ratings owing to weaknesses in the sovereign market could, all together, raise the bar for domestic banks to step in as buyers.”

In other words, Italian lenders may no longer be as willing to snap up domestic government bonds during market stresses, something which Bloomberg calls “a potentially huge structural shift in demand in the euro area’s second-most indebted nation.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italy Warns that Stopping QE will Lead to Collapse of Eurozone

August 14, 2018

Italy Warns that Stopping QE will Lead to Collapse of Eurozone

Italy has called on the ECB to guarantee the bond yields warning that if they END quantitative easing the Eurozone will break apart. On this score, they are not wrong. The economic spokesman for the Italian governing party Lega has warned of a collapse of the Eurozone. The ECB should ensure that the yield spreads of government bonds of the euro countries are contained and not allowed to soar. This is what Claudio Borghi told Reuters. “Either the ECB offers a guarantee or the euro will break apart.” Interest on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds rose in response to the currency crisis in Turkey. Borghi warned that this situation cannot be solved and will explode in everyone’s face. This is the Sovereign Debt Crisis coming into play. We are no looking at the risk premium for ten-year Italian government bonds has risen to 2.7% above Germany. The promise that a single currency would produce a single interest rate has been a complete failure.

This is what I have been warning about. Ten years of QE has FAILED to stimulate the economy of Europe, it has only made governments addicted to the ECB buying their debt at absurd low levels in rate. The Eurozone will indeed break apart once QE stops for rates will soar and tensions will then rise among the 28 member states for the promise of a single currency would produce a single interest rate pointing to the USA as their proof was a lie. The USA federal debt had a single rate because it was a single authority issuing the debt, not 28 separate states. The better comparison was looking to the 50 states who all experienced different interest rates based on a single currency and their individual CREDIT RATING! The lies of selling the Euro are coming back to haunt them.

Blowback: UniCredit Becomes First Major Corporation To Sever Ties With Facebook Over Ethics

August 7, 2018

Blowback: UniCredit Becomes First Major Corporation To Sever Ties With Facebook Over Ethics

Facebook has lost a major advertiser, UniCredit SpA, which has severed all ties alleging that the social media giant hasn’t acted ethically, reports Bloomberg – which notes that “other large companies” may follow suit.

CEO Jean Pierre Mustier says the bank maintains that Facebook hasn’t acted properly, and the Italian financial group will no longer have any type of business relationship with the Menlo Park, CA company.

Mustier was referring to business activities including advertising and marketing campaigns, a spokesman for UniCredit said. The bank currently has a swath of Facebook accounts — which are regularly updated. –Bloomberg

Facebook has come under intense scrutiny for failing to safeguard user data amid the Cambridge Analytica data harvesting scandal, revealed in March by The Guardian and The New York Times. The data from up to 87 million users, and possibly more, was found to have been “harvested” via the psychological profiling app “Thisisyourdigitallife” – which was created by two psychologists (one of whom currently works for Facebook), and was specially designed to collect and share information.

Despite Facebook’s attempts at damage control, UniCredit says they’re done with the social media giant – and there have been others. Unilever UV and Sonos Inc. have also threatened to pull ads.

In late July, Facebook’s shares fell over 20 percent after second-quarter revenue showed the first signs of user disenchantment in the midst of public scandals over privacy and content. The company has been under fire following revelations that personal information on as many as 87 million users ended up in the hands of Cambridge Analytica, a political consulting firm that worked on Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Mozilla Corp., which develops the Firefox web browser, said in March it would pause its ads from appearing on Facebook as a result. –Bloomberg

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italian Bond Market Crisis Coming Up

August 7, 2018

Italian Bond Market Crisis Coming Up

Italy’s 10-Year bond yield surged around the Italian election. There’s heavy issuance in Sept and ECB tapering in Oct.

The yield on Italian bonds surged in May on the victory of the League- and Five Star in the national election. The alliance does not intend to follow EU budget rules.

Heavy issuance is coming up in September. And in October, the ECB is scheduled to taper its QE bond purchases. This Combination of Events May Derail the Italian Bond Market.

Bankers lining up new company bonds in September may find that budget and spending discussions in Italy could derail what’s usually the second-half’s busiest issuance month. That’s what happened in May, another typically busy month for sales, when the Italian election result triggered a government bond sell-off and issuance slump.

“If we have something that resembles what we saw in May, the primary market should basically come to a halt,” said Marco Stoeckle, a credit strategist at Commerzbank AG. “If we have the Italian government curve inverting, anything like that would be enough to significantly hamper issuance volumes. I guess the market would be closed.”

Last week, as Italian finance minister Giovanni Tria was said to begin a series of meetings to determine a draft budget, there were already signs of nerves, with 10-year yields breaking above three percent for the first time in nearly two months. Markets fear the nation may be headed for a collision course with European Union partners as the two parties in Italy’s ruling coalition pledge to implement bold spending plans next year.

On May 29, as BTP spreads lurched violently, borrowing costs for all of Europe’s corporate borrowers rose: the Bloomberg Barclays index of corporate spreads widened 100 basis points in a single day — its largest jump in almost two years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italy – the Coming Revolution & Euro Crisis for 2021?

July 31, 2018

Italy – the Coming Revolution & Euro Crisis for 2021?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you obviously have a database on Italy that is without comparison. Nobody else even had a chart on the Italian lira you recently published on the blog. I know you are well aware of the revolutions in Italy and the history. I was wondering do you have any forecast for the next revolution? It seems that the five-star movement may perhaps be the beginning. Any hint about the future?

VDM

ANSWER: Well to give you a target year where it can begin will be 2021. The Five-Star Movement is indeed the prelude. However, the attempt to stay in the Eurozone will be the undoing of Italy. The most threatening issue in Italy that will lead to revolution is most likely an attempt to raise inheritance taxes as being suggested by Brussels.

Culturally, Italy has the lowest inheritance tax in all of Europe. The German inheritance tax rates range from 17% to 50%, depending on your relationship to the decedent. In Italy, the Italian Inheritance Tax (Imposta sulle Successioni) is applied to all the assets worldwide belonging to the deceased if the person is a resident of Italy ONLY. If the person lives outside of Italy, then the tax is applied ONLY to assets in Italy. Where everyone else has generally inheritance taxes of 15% or higher for the immediate family, Italy that rate is just 4%. Here is the breakdown:

4% to be paid for transfers to the surviving spouse and children, with an exemption of Euro 1,000,000 for each beneficiary
6% to be paid for transfers to brother and sisters of the deceased, with an exemption of Euro 100,000 for each beneficiary
6% to be paid for transfers to relatives within the fourth degree of relationship to the Deceased, and other relatives on the spouse side up to the third degree (no exempt amount is available)
8% to be paid for transfers to any other (unrelated) parties.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

15 Flashpoints Which Could Produce A “Perfect Storm” During The 2nd Half Of 2018

July 16, 2018

15 Flashpoints Which Could Produce A “Perfect Storm” During The 2nd Half Of 2018

Events are beginning to greatly accelerate, and many believe that the ingredients for a “perfect storm” are starting to come together as we enter the second half of 2018. Other than the continual drama surrounding the Trump presidency, things have been quite calm for the past couple of years. We have been enjoying a time of peace, safety and relative economic prosperity that a lot of Americans have begun to take for granted. But great trouble has been brewing under the surface, and many are wondering if we are about to reach a major turning point. Our planet is being shaken physically, emotionally and financially, and it isn’t going to take much to push us over the edge. The following are 15 flashpoints which could create world changing events during the 2nd half of 2018…

#1 War In The Middle East – A state of war already exists in Israel. 200 rockets and mortar shells were fired into Israel on Saturday alone, and it won’t take much to spark a much broader regional war.

#2 Civil Unrest In U.S. Cities – Progressives are promising a “summer of rage”, and they are assuring us that all of the anger that has been building up against President Trump and his administration is about to starting boiling over onto the streets of our major cities all across America.

#3 The Nomination Of Brett Kavanaugh To The Supreme Court – Prominent liberals are stoking fears that the Supreme Court will start taking away “our most cherished liberties” if Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed by the Senate. Expect Washington D.C. to be the focus for a lot of the chaos that will happen later this summer.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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