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Most experts are of the view that the massive monetary pumping by the US central bank during the 2008 financial crisis saved the US and the world from another Great Depression. On this the Federal Reserve Chairman at the time Ben Bernanke is considered the man that saved the world. Bernanke in turn attributes his actions to the writings of Professor Milton Friedman who blamed the Federal Reserve for causing the Great Depression of 1930s by allowing the money supply to plunge by over 30 percent.

Careful analysis will however show that it is not a collapse in the money stock that sets in motion an economic slump as such, but rather the prior monetary pumping that undermines the pool of real funding that leads to an economic depression.

Improving the Economy Requires Time and Savings

Essentially, the pool of real funding is the quantity of consumer goods available in an economy to support future production. In the simplest of terms: a lone man on an island is able to pick tewenty-five apples an hour. With the aid of a picking tool, he is able to raise his output to fifty apples an hour. Making the tool, (adding a stage of production) however, takes time.

During the time he is busy making the tool, the man will not be able to pick any apples. In order to have the tool, therefore, the man must first have enough apples to sustain himself while he is busy making it. His pool of funding is his means of sustenance for this period—the quantity of apples he has saved for this purpose.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed’s Painted Itself Into The Most Dangerous Corner In History—–Why There Will Soon Be A Riot In The Casino

December 10, 2015

The Fed’s Painted Itself Into The Most Dangerous Corner In History—–Why There Will Soon Be A Riot In The Casino

The chart below crystalizes why the Fed is stranded in a monetary no man’s land. By the time of next week’s meeting the federal funds rate will have been pinned at about 10 bps, or effectively zero, for 84 straight months.

Yet during that same period, the consumer price level has risen by 1.75% per year. And that’s if you give credit to all of the BLS gimmicks, such as hedonic adjustments for quality change, homeowners “imputed” rents and product basket substitution, which cause inflation to be systematically understated.

On a basis that is close enough for government work, therefore, the real money market interest rate has been negative 2% for seven years. But that’s so crazy, unjustified, and unprecedented that even the Keynesian money printers who run the Fed have run out of excuses.

Presumably, Yellen and her posse know that we did not have seven years running of negative real money market rates even during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

So after one pretension, delusion, head fake and forecasting error after another, the denizens of the Eccles Building have painted themselves into the most dangerous monetary corner in history. They have left themselves no alternative except to provoke a riot in the casino——-the very outcome that has filled them with fear and dread all these years.

Indeed, Yellen and Bernanke before her have made a huge deal out of communications clarity and forward guidance. But how do you explain to even the credulous gamblers and day traders on Wall Street that the business cycle has not been outlawed and that free money can not last forever, world without end?

Likewise, after all these years of saying that the dollar’s exchange rate is the responsibility of the US Treasury— and that the Eccles Building only does domestic monetary policy—– how will the Fed heads explain that they have wrapped themselves around the axle of an unrelentingly strong dollar?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Plunged Below 38 Dollars A Barrel?

December 8, 2015

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Plunged Below 38 Dollars A Barrel?

On Monday, the price of U.S. oil dropped below 38 dollars a barrel for the first time in six years. The last time the price of oil was this low, the global financial system was melting down and the U.S. economy was experiencing the worst recession that it had seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As I write this article, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $37.65. For months, I have been warning that the crash in the price of oil would be extremely deflationary and would have severe consequences for the global economy. Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil and Russia have already plunged into recession, and more than half of all major global stock market indexes are down at least 10 percent year to date. The first major global financial crisis since 2009 has begun, and things are only going to get worse as we head into 2016.

The global head of oil research at Societe Generale, Mike Wittner, says that his “head is spinning” after the stunning drop in the price of oil on Monday. Just like during the last financial crisis, we have broken the psychologically important 40 dollar barrier, and there are concerns that we could go much lower from here…

One analyst told CNBC that he believes that we could soon see the price of U.S. oil go all the way down to 32 dollars a barrel…

“We’re in a tug-of-war between a heavily shorted market and a glut of oil in the U.S. and globally, as Saudi Arabia continues to produce oil at elevated levels to maintain market share,” said Chris Jarvis at Caprock Risk Management, an energy markets consultancy in Frederick, Maryland.

“Couple this with a strengthening dollar as the market anticipates a U.S. rate hike this month, oil is heading lower with a near term target of $32 for WTI.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It Begins: Desperate Finland Set To Unleash Helicopter Money Drop To All Citizens

December 7, 2015

It Begins: Desperate Finland Set To Unleash Helicopter Money Drop To All Citizens

With Citi’s chief economist proclaiming “only helicopter money can save the world now,”and the Bank of England pre-empting paradropping money concerns, it appears that Australia’s largest investment bank’s forecast that money-drops were 12-18 months away was too conservative.

Over the last few months, in a prime example of currency failure and euro-defenders’ narratives, Finland has been sliding deeper into depression. Almost 7 years into the the current global expansion, Finland’s GDP is 6pc below its previous peak. As The Telegraph reports, this is a deeper and more protracted slump than the post-Soviet crash of the early 1990s, or the Great Depression of the 1930s. And so, having tried it all, Finnish authorities are preparing to unleash “helicopter money” to save their nation by giving every citizen a tax-free payout of around $900 each month!

Just over two years ago, when the world was deciding who would be Bernanke Fed Chair replacement, Larry Summers or Janet Yellen (how ironic that Larry Summers did not get the nod just because a bunch of progressive economists thought he would not be dovish enough) we wrote about a different problem: with the end of QE3 upcoming and with the inevitable failure of the economy to reignite (again), we warned that there remains one option after (when not if) QE fails to stimulate growth: helicopter money.

While QE may be ending, it certainly does not mean that the Fed is halting its effort to “boost” the economy. In fact… the end of QE may well be simply a redirection, whereby the broken monetary pathway, one which uses banks as intermediaries to stimulate inflation (supposedly a failure according to the economist mainstream), i.e., “second-round effects”, is bypassed entirely and replaced with Plan Z, aka “Helicopter Money” mentioned previously as an all too real monetary policy option by none other than Milton Friedman and one Ben Bernanke. This is also known as the nuclear option.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is What Happened The Last Time The Fed Hiked While The U.S. Was In Recession

December 2, 2015

This Is What Happened The Last Time The Fed Hiked While The U.S. Was In Recession

Back on June 17, Bank of America started its 66-day countdown to the moment it was convinced the Fed would hike rates, September 17, 2015. We, correctly, said that “we disagree entirely” with BofA’s conclusion that the Fed would hike rates, and sure enough, it did not after the Chinese August devaluation unleashed the ETFlash crash, the EM debt rout, a surge in the VIX and a correction in the S&P500, which crushed the Fed’s carefully laid rate-hike plans.

But while we disagreed with BofA’s countdown timing, we agreed with something its strategist Michael Hartnett said, namely that “gradual or otherwise, the first interest rate hike by the Fed since June 2006 marks a major inflection point for financial markets.”

BofA then laid out several key factors why “this time is indeed different” when evaluating the global economy’s receptiveness to a rate hike:

Central banks now own over $22 trillion of financial assets, a figure that exceeds the annual GDP of US & Japan
Central banks have cut interest rates more than 600 times since Lehman, a rate cut once every three 3 trading days
Central bank financial repression created over $6 trillion of negatively-yielding global government bonds
45% of all government bonds in the world currently yield <1% (that’s $17.4 trillion of bond issues outstanding)
US corporate high grade bond issuance as a % of GDP has doubled to almost 30% since the introduction of ZIRP
US small cap 5-year rolling returns hit 30-year highs (28%) in recent quarters
The US equity bull market is now in the 3rd longest ever
83% of global equity markets are currently supported by zero rate policies

However, to the Fed none of these matter: only the price action of the S&P500 does, which as everyone knows, is trading just shy of its all time highs so “all must be well.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Seek and Ye Shall Find

November 25, 2015

Seek and Ye Shall Find

A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back on the crowd.”
– Max Lucado.

So. Farewell then Jim Slater, who died earlier this month. We met Mr. Slater only once, at an investment conference at the height of the financial crisis in 2008. Just before going on stage we asked him what he was doing with his own money. He replied,

“I own index-linked Gilts in bearer form and I am holding them in a fire-proof safety deposit box.”

We doubt if he was joking.

Seven years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, everything has changed, and yet nothing has changed. There is no longer a perception of panic. $14 trillion of central bank stimulus has seen to that. But at the same time, a predicament brought to crisis by too much borrowed money has been exacerbated by much more borrowed money: $57 trillion of it, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Perhaps the most prescient commentator before the fall of Lehman Brothers was Tim Lee of pi Economics, who wrote the following back in November 2007, fully 10 months before the failure of a second-rate investment bank triggered a global credit crisis:

“There is little doubt, to my mind, that we are now at a defining moment in financial history, a time that, once it has passed will be referred by economic and market historians in much the same way as the Wall Street Crash of 1929 or the credit and banking crisis of 1973-4 are now.

“Unfortunately, as is becoming increasingly clear, this crisis is not really just about subprime mortgages. It is much more serious than that. It is the beginning of an inevitable realignment of credit and wealth with incomes and accumulated savings… subprime is merely the first part of the credit edifice to give way, rather than the whole story…”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Professor Bernanke’s Bogus Contra-factual, Part 2: Why The Friedman/Bernanke Thesis About The Great Depression Was Dead Wrong

October 29, 2015

Professor Bernanke’s Bogus Contra-factual, Part 2: Why The Friedman/Bernanke Thesis About The Great Depression Was Dead Wrong

In explaining to the FT’s Martin Wolf why he bailed out the Wall Street gamblers at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley while crushing millions of ordinary American savers and retirees, Bernanke typically repaired to his go to argument. It had nothing to do with the mild excesses of inventories and labor that had built up in the main street economy owing to the Greenspan housing and credit boom, as explained in Part 1.

That’s because Bernanke was not aiming to ameliorate the mild economic liquidation that ensued after the Lehman event; and which, as previously demonstrated, would have runs its course and self-corrected without any help from the Fed in any event.

No, Ben S. Bernanke will be someday remembered as the world’s most destructive battleship admiral. Not only was he fighting the last war, but his whole multi-trillion money printing campaign after September 15, 2008 was aimed at avoiding an historical Fed mistake that had never even happened!

As Bernanke explained it:

I should have done more (to mitigate anti-Fed sentiments). But I was very much engaged in trying to put out the fire. So I don’t know what to say. It was kind of predictable. The Federal Reserved failed in the 1930s. I think we did much better than in the 1930s.

The claim that the Fed resorted to “extraordinary policies” of ZIRP and QE because it was fighting a recurrence of Great Depression 2.0 is completely, profoundly, unequivocally and destructively wrong.

It is the giant fig leaf that obscures what really happened during and after the crisis. Namely, that the main street economy recovered on its own, and that the flood of money generated by Bernanke never left the canyons of Wall Street, thereby causing the destruction of honest price discovery in the financial markets once and for all.

So doing, the Fed and other central banks have turned financial markets into dangerous, unstable casinos. In the name of precluding the contra-factual——that is, Great Depression 2.0—-they have generated the mother of all financial bubbles.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What’s up with the global economy, and where do we go from here?

October 27, 2015

What’s up with the global economy, and where do we go from here?

A deflationary spiral, such as is now becoming evident globally, acts as a natural poison.

It now appears that the grand yearly addition to total human wealth, the global GNP, is no longer growing. If so, this means the world is headed toward a global deflationary spiral, a contraction in the global economy similar in nature to the trade slump that spread globally during the era of the Great Depression.

There really is no other explanation but a global trade slump that can account for the steep decline in the prices of basic essential commodities like oil and copper, and also the decreased demand for shipping capacity reflected in the Baltic Dry Index.

The troubled Chinese economy, its reduced demand for commodities, the devaluation of its currency to try to capture more trade, and the Chinese support for a new trade alliance in competition with the new U.S./Japanese TPP alliance — all these are symptoms that indicate that aggregate global buying power has stalled out. That means that investment capital is unable to find new profitable investments in the global marketplace, which is very bad news for finance capitalism as a global system.

At this point let me refer readers to Gail Tverberg and her blog, Our Finite World, which focuses on the key interactions between energy and economics. In fact we now see just the sort of troubled global economy that we might anticipate from a world that peaked in production of historically cheap conventional oil almost a decade ago in 2006. Tverberg is able to explain the global economic situation so clearly, so convincingly, and so persistently that she has attracted a huge popular economic following. One of her recent posts drew over a thousand reader responses; “Low Oil Prices – Why Worry?.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Professor Bernanke’s Bogus Contra-factual, Part 1: The Myth Of Great Depression 2.0

October 27, 2015

Professor Bernanke’s Bogus Contra-factual, Part 1: The Myth Of Great Depression 2.0

It took no “courage” whatsoever to inflate the Fed’s balance sheet from $900 billion to $2.3 trillion during just 17 weeks in September-December 2008. What it actually took was an epochal con job by a naïve Keynesian academic whose single idea about economics was primitive, self-serving, borrowed and wrong.

The claim that the Great Depression was caused by the Fed’s failure to go on a bond buying spree in 1930-1933 was Milton Friedman’s monumental error. Professor Bernanke’s scholarship amounted to little more than xeroxing Friedman’s flawed work, and then shouting loudly in the Eccles Building boardroom at the time of the Lehman bankruptcy that Great Depression 2.0 was lurking just around the corner.

That was just plain hysterical malarkey. But at the time, it served the interests of the Wall Street/Washington Corridor perfectly.

As Wall Street’s decade long spree of leveraged speculation was being liquidated in September 2008, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and their posse of hedge fund speculators desperately needed rescue from their own reckless gambles——especially their funding of giant balance sheets swollen by long-dated, illiquid, risky assets with cheap hot funds in the wholesale money market. So what better excuse to override every principle of free market economics, financial discipline and public policy fairness than stopping a reenactment of the 1930s—–putative soup-lines and all?

At the same time, beltway politicians and fiscal authorities were tickled pink. They would be able to unleash a monumental $800 billion potpourri of K-street pork and tax and entitlement giveaways to “fight” the recession, knowing that Bernanke & Co would finance it with an eruption of public debt monetization that was theretofore unimaginable.

In short, no public official has ever committed an economic folly greater than the horrific misdeed of Ben S. Bernanke when he provided the Great Depression 2.0 cover story for the lunatic outbreak of central bank money printing shown below. It destroyed the last vestige of Wall Street discipline in a financialized economy that had already been bloated and deformed by two decades of Greenspan era Bubble Finance.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

America Looks A Lot Like Nazi Germany Did Just Prior To World War II

October 22, 2015

America Looks A Lot Like Nazi Germany Did Just Prior To World War II

Once upon a time America fought a great war to rid the world of the Nazis, but now we have become just like them. In fact, I would venture to say that the Nazification of the United States is pretty much complete. As you will see below, we have a heavily socialized economy where tax rates are out of control and lots of freebies are given out just like the Nazis did. And just like the Nazis, our society has become highly militarized and our government has become increasingly obsessed with watching, tracking, monitoring and controlling the general population. But more than anything else, all of the pageantry and beauty in our society masks an evil which has grown to a level that is almost unspeakable. The other day, my wife and I were watching some footage of the beautiful parades and celebrations that were held in Germany before World War II, and they certainly were very impressive. But under the surface, a great evil was growing. Just because something happens behind closed doors does not make it okay, and just like the Nazis, our society is about to learn an exceedingly painful lesson in that regard.

Let’s start out by talking about the economy. Most people tend to regard the Nazis as “far right”, but the truth is that they were socialists. By heavily taxing and spending, the Nazis were able to temporarily restore economic prosperity after the great economic crisis that occurred under the Weimar Republic, and this helped fuel their wild popularity. The following comes from Wikipedia…

In the midst of the Great Depression, the Nazis restored economic stability and ended mass unemployment using heavy military spending and a mixed economy. Extensive public works were undertaken, including the construction of Autobahns (high speed highways). The return to economic stability boosted the regime’s popularity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How the Business Cycle Happens Part 1

October 22, 2015

How the Business Cycle Happens Part 1

[This excerpt from the first chapters of Murray Rothbard’s America’s Great Depression (1963)] Reprinted from Mises.org

Study of business cycles must be based upon a satisfactory cycle theory. Gazing at sheaves of statistics without “pre-judgment” is futile. A cycle takes place in the economic world, and therefore a usable cycle theory must be integrated with general economic theory. And yet, remarkably, such integration, even attempted integration, is the exception, not the rule. Economics, in the last two decades, has fissured badly into a host of airtight compartments — each sphere hardly related to the others. Only in the theories of Schumpeter and Mises has cycle theory been integrated into general economics.1

The bulk of cycle specialists, who spurn any systematic integration as impossibly deductive and overly simplified, are thereby (wittingly or unwittingly) rejecting economics itself. For if one may forge a theory of the cycle with little or no relation to general economics, then general economics must be incorrect, failing as it does to account for such a vital economic phenomenon. For institutionalists — the pure data collectors — if not for others, this is a welcome conclusion. Even institutionalists, however, must use theory sometimes, in analysis and recommendation; in fact, they end by using a concoction of ad hoc hunches, insights, etc., plucked unsystematically from various theoretical gardens. Few, if any, economists have realized that the Mises theory of the trade cycle is not just another theory: that, in fact, it meshes closely with a general theory of the economic system.2 The Mises theory is, in fact, the economic analysis of the necessary consequences of intervention in the free market by bank credit expansion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

America’s “Inevitable” Revolution & The Redistribution Fallacy

October 18, 2015

America’s “Inevitable” Revolution & The Redistribution Fallacy

Here’s the good news: The chaos and upheaval we see all around us have historical precedents and yet America survived.

The bad news: Everything likely will get worse before it gets better again.

That’s NYPost.com’s Michael Goodwin’s chief takeaway from “Shattered Consensus,” a meticulously argued analysis of the growing disorder. Author James Piereson persuasively makes the case there is an inevitable “revolution” coming because our politics, culture, education, economics and even philanthropy are so polarized that the country can no longer resolve its differences.

To my knowledge, no current book makes more sense about the great unraveling we see in each day’s headlines. Piereson captures and explains the alienation arising from the sense that something important in American life is ending, but that nothing better has emerged to replace it.

The impact is not restricted by our borders. Growing global conflict is related to America’s failure to agree on how we should govern ourselves and relate to the world.

Piereson describes the endgame this way: “The problems will mount to a point of crisis where either they will be addressed through a ‘fourth revolution’ or the polity will begin to disintegrate for lack of fundamental agreement.”

He identifies two previous eras where a general consensus prevailed, and collapsed. Each lasted about as long as an individual’s lifetime, was dominated by a single political party and ended dramatically.

First came the era that stretched from 1800 until slavery and sectionalism led to the Civil War.

The second consensus, which he calls the capitalist-industrial era, lasted from the end of the Civil War until the Great Depression.

It is the third consensus, which grew out of the depression and World War II, which is now shattering. Because the nation is unable to solve economic stagnation, political dysfunction and the resulting public discontent, Piereson thinks the consensus “cannot be resurrected.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Keeps Neil Howe Up At Night: An Interview With The Author Of “The Fourth Turning”

October 14, 2015

What Keeps Neil Howe Up At Night: An Interview With The Author Of “The Fourth Turning”

“Underproduction, undercapacity, deflation, currency wars, demographics, falling birth rates” – those are the biggest fears which Fourth Turning author, and head of Saeculum Research Neil Howe, lays out in this interview excerpt courtesy of RealVision TV.

While Howe goes on an interesting tangent on the one topic that will surely be absent from all presidential debates, namely the fact that migration into the US is “actually in huge decline“, and that the largest immigrant group into the US is Asian (after all someone has to buy those luxury NYC condos), what is more interesting are Howe’s parallels of the current economic situation to the Great Depression: “whole areas of the world no longer having a global superpower, no longer having global institutions that enforce orders so you have these huge areas of failed states and power vacuums and regional authoritarian governments – that’s exactly what people saw in the 1930s and we’re seeing it now in Russia, China, Iran doing whatever they want.”

He continues:

“Another interesting economic parallel is the crisis of overvaluation: in the 1930s it was the gold standard, for southern Europe it’s the Euro, and for China they have a fixed rate regime that they’re attending to too little too late. It’s the nature of an authoritarian regime to always to do too little and too late. Everyone is too timid to tell the person in power “this is what you need to do.” I think China faces an absolute choice between a huge devaluation to restimulate its economy, because becoming competitive I think the carry trade is going to go and I think even domestic savings are going to flee. If they don’t do that they have very few options left at this point. They have $3.5 trillion of reserves – you’ll be amazed how quickly that goes. So that’s another parallel.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The G-30 Group Of Central Bankers Warn They Can “No Longer Save The World”

October 11, 2015

The G-30 Group Of Central Bankers Warn They Can “No Longer Save The World”

In a detailed report by the Group of Thirty, central bankers warned that ZIRP and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth and risked becoming semi-permanent measures. As Reuters reports, the flow of easy money has inflated asset prices like stocks and housing in many countries but have failed to stimulate economic growth; and with growth estimates trending lower and easy money increasing company leverage, the specter of a debt trap is now haunting advanced economies. “Central banks have described their actions as ‘buying time’ for governments to finally resolve the crisis… But time is wearing on,” sending a message of “you’re on your own” to governments around the world.

The G30 begins their report rather pointedly…

Central banks worked alongside governments to address the unfolding crises during 2007–09, and their actions were a necessary and appropriate crisis management response. But central bank policies alone should not be expected to deliver sustainable economic growth. Such policies must be complemented by other policy measures implemented by governments.

At present, much remains to be done by governments, parliaments, public authorities, and the private sector to tackle policy, economic, and structural weaknesses that originate outside the control or influence of central banks. In order to contribute to sustainable economic growth, the report presumes that all other actors fulfill their responsibilities.

Roughly translated… central bankers are saying “you are now on your own.”

Central banks alone cannot be relied upon to deliver all the policies necessary to achieve macroeconomic goals. Governments must also act and use the policy-making space provided by conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures. Failure to do so would be a serious error and would risk setting the stage for further economic disturbances and imbalances in the future.

And the “need to exit” appears to be front and center for The G30 bankers…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We Should Have Known Something Was Wrong”

October 10, 2015

“We Should Have Known Something Was Wrong”

Remember when stuff such as the following was written exclusively on “conspiracy” tin-foil blogs by deranged lunatics who could not appreciate the brilliance of the neo-Keynesian system and central-planning by academics, in all its glory? Good times.

Here is Bank of America’s Athanasios Vamvakidis channeling Tyler Durden circa 2009

The real cost of QE

QE was not a free lunch after all

If only it was that easy to print our way out of a global crisis. Eight years after the crisis, we are still debating about whether the recovery has gained enough of a momentum to allow exit from crisis-driven policies and start hiking rates from zero. The world economy has actually lost momentum this year (Chart 1), deflation risks have increased (Chart 2), and EM indicators and overall market volatility have reached crisis levels (see Chart 3). All this is despite unprecedented expansion of central bank balance sheets (Chart 4). Things may have been worse otherwise, but in hindsight we believe relying too much on unconventional monetary policies was not a free lunch after all.

We should have known something was wrong

The Fed “taper tantrum” could have been the first warning that QE had gone too far. The Fed’s announcement in June 2013 that they would consider tapering QE, contingent upon continued positive data, triggered a sharp market sell-off, particularly in EM. The aggressive search for yield, which intensified after the Fed announced QE3—or QE infinity as markets called it—came to a sudden stop. QE was not for infinity after all. The Fed tried to reassure markets that QE tapering was still policy easing and that its end would not imply rate hikes immediately, but the markets apparently thought otherwise. A key takeaway was not that QE had already gone too far, but that announcing its tapering may have been a mistake. The Fed waited until December to start tapering, although the market had already priced its beginning in September.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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