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Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head
Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation. We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration […]
Irrational Beliefs are Ruling Markets
IRRATIONAL BELIEFS ARE RULING MARKETS To understand the consequences of the credit cycle, we must dismiss pure opinion, and examine the evidence rationally. This article assesses the fate of the dollar on the next credit crisis, a subject of increasing topicality. It concludes that the late stage of the credit cycle has important similarities with […]
Singapore, Trade and Geopolitics
Singapore, Trade and Geopolitics The Western media was incredulous. The Donald had disregarded diplomacy, scuttled out of the G7 meeting in Canada without endorsing the G7 agreement, and ended up shaking hands with a previously avowed enemy in Singapore. The formally leisurely pace of global diplomacy, where all is pre-agreed before the photo-op showing unanimity […]
Living Dangerously
Living Dangerously Regular readers of Goldmoney’s Insights should be aware by now that the cycle of business activity is fuelled by monetary policy, and that the periodic booms and slumps experienced since monetary policy has been used in an attempt to manage economic outcomes are the result of monetary policy itself. The link between interest […]
The Gently Rotting Debt-Ridden EU
The Gently Rotting Debt-Ridden EU The EU as a political construction is in a state of terminal decay. We know this for one reason and one reason alone: its core principle is the state is superior to its people. A system of government can only work over the longer term if it recognises that it […]
The Deflation/Inflation Debate
THE DEFLATION/INFLATION DEBATE “Naïve inflationism demands an increase in the quantity of money without suspecting that this will diminish the purchasing power of the money.” ― Ludwig von mises, The Theory of Money and Credit It is hardly surprising that with equity indices stalling, the financial community is increasingly worried that the long, steady bull market […]
The yuan-oil future and gold
The yuan-oil future and gold “There can be little doubt that the introduction of the yuan-denominated oil future has been a major strategic step for China.” Regular readers of Goldmoney’s research will be aware that we were among the first to alert western financial markets that China would introduce a new oil futures contract priced […]
The Death Of Democracy
The Death Of Democracy Anyone who thinks democracy doesn’t matter may be in for a rude shock later this year, when we know the result of America’s mid-term elections. The Deep State is on course to take control of Congress. If this happens, it will be the next step in a global trend of side-lining […]
Will the Dollar Survive the Rise of the Yuan and the End of the Petrodollar?
Will the Dollar Survive the Rise of the Yuan and the End of the Petrodollar? This might seem a frivolous question, while the dollar still retains its might, and is universally accepted in preference to other, less stable fiat currencies. However, it is becoming clear, at least to independent monetary observers, that in 2018 the […]
Deflation Must Be Embraced
DEFLATION MUST BE EMBRACED There are two problems with understanding deflation: it is ill defined, and it has a bad name. This article puts deflation into its proper context. This is an important topic for advocates of gold as money, who will be aware that sound money, in theory, leads to lower prices over time […]
Will Macro-Economists Ever Learn?
WILL MACRO-ECONOMISTS EVER LEARN? As we lurch through successive credit crises, central bankers and economists believe they learn valuable lessons every time, and that the ultimate prize, the suppression of business cycles through monetary policy, will be achieved. We saw, over Brexit, how wrong the Bank of England’s and the UK Treasury’s models were, and […]
The Upcoming Increase in Interest Rates
THE UPCOMING INCREASE IN INTEREST RATES Last week, both Janet Yellen of the Fed and Mark Carney of the Bank of England prepared financial markets for interest rate increases. The working assumption should be that this was coordinated, and that both the ECB and the Bank of Japan must be considering similar moves. Central banks […]
Social Destruction by the Abuse of Money
SOCIAL DESTRUCTION BY THE ABUSE OF MONEY In Britain, the top 1% of earners pay over a quarter of all income tax collected, and while super-rich British residents perhaps don’t have the tax breaks the Macklowes enjoy, the bulk of the burden falls on lawyers, bankers, company executives and owners of successful private enterprises. And […]
The Forthcoming Global Crisis
THE FORTHCOMING GLOBAL CRISIS The global economy is now in an expansionary phase, with bank credit being increasingly available for non-financial borrowers. This is always the prelude to the crisis phase of the credit cycle. Most national economies are directly boosted by China, the important exception being America. This is confirmed by dollar weakness, which […]
