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China Switches to Supporting Yuan as Outflows Mount: Currencies

China Switches to Supporting Yuan as Outflows Mount: Currencies

Managing the yuan is turning into a different game for China’s policy makers these days.

After more than a decade of curbing the currency’s gains to help turn the nation into a manufacturing colossus, there are signs the People’s Bank of China is now propping up the yuan to stem an exodus of capital that’s threatening the economy.

A gauge of capital flows on the PBOC’s balance sheet fell by the most since 2003 last month in a sign it’s selling foreign currency, while the yuan’s reference rate set daily by policy makers is at itsstrongest-ever level compared with the market price.

“Everyone thought the movie would never end, and suddenly it ended, so everyone is hurrying to leave,” Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said by phone on Jan. 22. “The authorities need to think of a way to keep the audience in the theater” as the economy slows, he said.

China amassed a world-leading $4 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves by mid-2014 as exports surged and capital flowed in, attracted by a currency that strengthened for four consecutive years. Now that the yuan’s gains are faltering, the PBOC is trying to prevent its declines from turning into a rout that could deter investment just as the economy suffers its slowest growth in 24 years.

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Bubbles Always Pop—–And This One Will Be A Doozy

Bubbles Always Pop—–And This One Will Be A Doozy

Pumping All Out

The Dow rose 323 points on Thursday, or 1.8%. People come to think what they must think when they must think it. But what do they think now? Why do they think stocks are so valuable?

Apparently, they believe that Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda – the powers that be – will continue to make stocks go up.

The Fed has stopped active liquidity pumping. But it still has its hand on the pump handle, just in case.

The European Central Bank is promising and preparing to pump as soon as it can get the Germans out of the way. And the Japanese – the world leaders in modern state finance – are pumping with both hands.

 

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Photo credit: US Library of Congress

Gaming the System

Since 2009, the Fed has put more than $3.5 trillion to work on investors’ behalf. This – along with the help of the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China, etc. – has helped lift stock markets by $18 trillion.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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