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Were CIA Dirty Hands Behind Assassination of Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey?

Russia’s investigation will get to the bottom of what happened, why and who was responsible.

Though unknown at this point, it has the earmarks of a CIA plot to undermine growing Russian/Turkish ties, notably their cooperation in Syria, adversely affecting Washington’s regional imperial agenda.

The assassination happened in the wake of Aleppo’s liberation, a major defeat for Washington, NATO, Israel and other rogue Middle East states.

It came on the eve of Russian, Turkish and Iranian foreign ministers meeting in Moscow (America, Britain and France excluded) “to discuss in trilateral format the situation in and around Syria first and foremost,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov explained.

On Tuesday, they’ll meet in Moscow “to try to reach an agreement on lasting ceasefire, on resolution of some humanitarian issues with eye of reaching political settlement.”

“We have the basis for that and it is United Nations Security Council resolution 2254,” he added. Cessation of hostilities and conflict resolution would be a major step toward defeating Washington’s regional imperial agenda.

If Trump normalizes ties with Russia, both countries cooperating in combating terrorism, it’ll represent a major change of US foreign policy for as long as it lasts. Deep state dark forces in Washington want it prevented.

According to Tass, Russian ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov “was assassinated on Monday in the country’s capital of Ankara by former special task police force officer Mevlut Mert Altintas,” citing Turkey’s interior minister Suleyman Soylu.

Karlov was killed during the opening ceremony of a photo exhibition called “Russia through Turks’ eyes,” dedicated to normalized bilateral relations between both countries.

He died later at an Ankara hospital, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova explained.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kremlin Warns Of Response To Latest US Sanctions, Says “Almost All Communication With US Is Frozen”

December 21, 2016

Kremlin Warns Of Response To Latest US Sanctions, Says “Almost All Communication With US Is Frozen”

In response to the latest imposition of US sanctions on Russia, the Kremlin said on Wednesday that the new sanctions would further damage relations between the two countries and that Moscow would respond with its own measures. “We regret that Washington is continuing on this destructive path,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call.

As a reminder, on Tuesday the United States widened sanctions against Russian businessmen and companies adopted after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the conflict in Ukraine.

“We believe this damages bilateral relations … Russia will take commensurate measures.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

Then again, it is difficult to see how sanctions between the two administration could be any more “damaged”: also on Wednesday, the Kremlin said it did not expect the incoming U.S. administration to reject NATO enlargement overnight and that almost all communications channels between Russia and the United States were frozen, the RIA news agency reported.

“Almost every level of dialogue with the United States is frozen. We don’t communicate with one another, or (if we do) we do so minimally,” Peskov said.

Additionally, RIA said that according to Peskov “he did not know whether President Vladimir Putin would seek re-election in 2018.”

“Everyone’s heads are aching because of work and with projects and nobody is thinking or talking about elections,” Peskov said.

Then again, the sanctions may soon be history. According to a Bloomberg report, the U.S. will start easing its penalties, imposed over the showdown in Ukraine in 2014, during the next 12 months, according to 55 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey, up from 10 percent in an October poll. Without the restrictions, Russia’s economic growth would get a boost equivalent to 0.2 percentage point of gross domestic product next year and 0.5 percentage point in 2018, according to the median estimates in the poll.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

On WikiLeaks, Journalism, and Privacy: Reporting on the Podesta Archive Is an Easy Call

October 16, 2016

On WikiLeaks, Journalism, and Privacy: Reporting on the Podesta Archive Is an Easy Call

FOR YEARS, WIKILEAKS has been publishing massive troves of documents online — usually taken without authorization from powerful institutions and then given to the group to publish — while news outlets report on their relevant content. In some instances, these news outlets work in direct partnership with WikiLeaks — as the New York Times and The Guardian, among others, did when jointly publishing the Iraq and Afghanistan war logs and U.S. diplomatic cables — while other times media outlets simply review the archives published by WikiLeaks and then report on what they deem newsworthy.

WikiLeaks has always been somewhat controversial, but reaction has greatly intensified this year because many of its most significant leaks have had an impact on the U.S. presidential election and, in particular, have focused on Democrats. As a result, Republicans who long vilified the group as a grave national security threat have become its biggest fans (“I love WikiLeaks,” Donald Trump gushed last night, even though he previously called for Edward Snowden to be executed), while Democrats who cheered the group for its mass leaks about Bush-era war crimes now scorn it as an evil espionage tool of the Kremlin.

The group’s recent publication of the emails of Clinton campaign chair John Podesta has been particularly controversial because it comes less than a month before the election; it included all sorts of private and purely personal exchanges along with substantive, newsworthy material; and it was obtained through actions that were likely criminal (hacking). Compounding the intensity of the debate is the now standard Democratic campaign tactic of reflexively accusing adversaries of being tools or agents of Moscow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Going Beyond Propaganda. Nuclear Conflict: Deception or Real Threat?

October 16, 2016

Going Beyond Propaganda. Nuclear Conflict: Deception or Real Threat?

The events in the Middle East, Syria and Aleppo are the focus of global attention. Rarely has a battle been so decisive to the outcome of a war and the fate of hundreds of millions of people around the world

Hillary Clinton in the last presidential debate repeatedly called for the establishment of a no-fly zone (NFZ) in Syria. The concept, reiterated several times, clashes with the revelation contained in her private emails admitting that the implementation of a NFZ would entail the increased deaths of Syrian civilians. In a recent hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, General Philip Breedlove was asked what kind of effort would be required for the US armed forces to impose a NFZ over Syrian skies. With obvious embarrassment, the General was forced to admit that such a request would involve hitting Russian and Syrian aircraft and vehicles, opening the door to a direct confrontation between Moscow and Washington, a decision the General was simply not willing to take. The military leadership has always shown a readiness to implement the military option; so this time they must have sniffed the danger of a direct conflict with Moscow.

The Kremlin has publicly admitted to deploying in Syria the S-400 and S-300V4 advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems respectively. The presence of the defense complex was intentionally announced as a factor of deterrence and is a logical strategy. The message to Washington is clear: any unidentified object in Syrian skies will be shot down. The United States bases much of its military strength on the constant need to project power, making its opponents believe that it possesses capabilities that others do not hold.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Responds To Formal Cyberattack Accusations, Calls Them “Unprecedented Anti-Russian Hysteria”

October 8, 2016

Russia Responds To Formal Cyberattack Accusations, Calls Them “Unprecedented Anti-Russian Hysteria”

Following the first official accusation lobbed at Russia on Friday by the Department of Homeland Security and Director of National Intelligence on Election Security, in which US intelligence services formally stated they were “confident” that the Russian government “directed the recent compromises of emails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations”, today Russia responded to this latest diplomatic escalation by saying that U.S. accusations that Russia was responsible for cyber attacks against Democratic Party organizations lack any proof and are an attempt by Washington to fan “unprecedented anti-Russian hysteria”, the Foreign Ministry in Moscow said.

After late on Friday the Kremlin called the U.S. allegations “nonsense”, on Saturday Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, cited by Reuters, said on the ministry’s website that “this whipping up of emotions regarding ‘Russian hackers’ is used in the U.S. election campaign, and the current U.S. administration, taking part in this fight, is not averse to using dirty tricks.”

“There is no proof whatsoever for such grave accusations,” Ryabkov said. “(They are) …fabricated by those who are now serving an obvious political order in Washington, continuing to whip up unprecedented anti-Russian hysteria.”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov

Ryabkov reiterated an offer to Washington, first made last year, to hold consultations on fighting cyber crime together, but he also criticized John Kerry after the U.S. Secretary of State said late on Friday that Russian and Syrian actions in the Syrian civil war, including bombings of hospitals, “beg for” a war crimes investigation.

Such remarks are unacceptable and Moscow is disappointed to hear “new typically U.S. claims for being a global judge”, Ryabkov said in comments to Interfax news agency published on Saturday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

40 Million Russians To Take Part In “Nuclear Disaster” Drill, Days After US General Warns Of War With Moscow

October 4, 2016

40 Million Russians To Take Part In “Nuclear Disaster” Drill, Days After US General Warns Of War With Moscow

As relations between Russia and the US disintegrate as a result of the escalating proxy war in Syria, which today culminated with Putin halting a Plutonium cleanup effort with the US, shortly before the US State Department announced it would end negotiations with Russia over Syria, tomorrow an unprecedented 40 million Russian citizens, as well as 200,000 specialists from “emergency rescue divisions” and 50,000 units of equipment are set to take part in a four day-long civil defense, emergency evacuation and disaster preparedness drill, the Russian Ministry for Civil Defense reported on its website.

According to the ministry, an all-Russian civil defense drill involving federal and regional executive authorities and local governments dubbed “Organization of civil defense during large natural and man-caused disasters in the Russian Federation” will start tomorrow morning in all constituent territories of Russia and last until October 7. While the ministry does not specify what kind of “man-caused disaster” it envisions, it would have to be a substantial one for 40 million Russians to take part in the emergency preparedness drill. Furthermore, be reading the guidelines of the drill, we can get a rather good idea of just what it is that Russia is “preparing” for.

The website adds that “the main goal of the drill is to practice organization of management during civil defense events and emergency and fire management, to check preparedness of management bodies and forces of civil defense on all levels to respond to natural and man-made disasters and to take civil defense measures.” Oleg Manuilov, director of the Civil Defence Ministry explained that the exercise will be a test of how the population would respond to a “disaster” under an “emergency” situation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Situation in Syria is Very, Very Dangerous

October 1, 2016

The Situation in Syria is Very, Very Dangerous

In case you haven’t been paying attention, the recent Syria ceasefire lasted barely a week. While all sides engaged in the conflict were accusing the other of violating the agreement from the beginning, it really unraveled when U.S. forces bombed Syrian government forces, killing at least 62.

As CNN reported at the time:

Hours after US-led coalition airstrikes reportedly killed dozens of Syrian troops, the US and Russian ambassadors to the United Nations chastised each other outside an emergency Security Council meeting.

The strike occurred Saturday in an eastern part of Syria that is not a part of a delicate and nearly week-old ceasefire. The US military said it was targeting ISIS militants and if it hit Syrian troops, it was an accident.

Russia and Syria said the strikes prove Washington and its allies are sympathetic to ISIS.

The Russian military said 62 Syrian soldiers were killed near Deir Ezzor Airport, according to state media. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll at 83 and said at least 120 soldiers were wounded.

A fews day after this, Syrian forces launched an attack on the city of Aleppo, and we now find ourselves in an extraordinarily dangerous situation.

Reuters reports:

Obama administration officials have begun considering tougher responses to the Russian-backed Syrian government assault on Aleppo, including military options, as rising tensions with Moscow diminish hopes for diplomatic solutions from the Middle East to Ukraine and cyberspace, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.

The new discussions were being held at “staff level,” and have yet to produce any recommendations to President Barack Obama, who has resisted ordering military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country’s multisided civil war.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Possible End Game: The United States Has Created a Climate That Could Easily Be Transformed Into a War

April 25, 2016

Possible End Game: The United States Has Created a Climate That Could Easily Be Transformed Into a War

grand-chessboard

Most readers have been watching, as the U.S. and Russia seem to be positioning themselves along Cold War lines. The posturing is not confined to maneuvering military assets; it also runs along economic lines, in which most warfare is at least based if not a major or the sole impetus. Each power has sought to cement its claims/presence in areas bordering the sphere of influence of, or the actual territory of the other power. Such posturing can be dangerous and lead to an incident that escalates into the uncontrollable.

Recently the news media has been abuzz with the Russian fighter aircraft buzzing the U.S. in the face: first the incident with the two fighters coming within 30 feet of an American naval vessel, and another separate incident involving aerial theatrics around a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft (a Boeing RC-135 intelligence-gathering spy plane). The U.S. responded in kind on April 20 by allowing a guided missile destroyer, the U.S.S. Cook to encroach upon Russian borders while conducting maneuvers near Poland. The U.S. claimed that Russian aircraft were doing fly-by’s to intimidate the destroyer.

Unlike the puissant response by John Kerry, feigning anger and doing nothing with the Russian aircraft incidences of the past two weeks, Russia is not playing with the destroyer incident. The Russian ambassador to NATO, Alexander Grushko is reported by Reuters to have made the following statement:

“This is about attempts to exercise military pressure on Russia. We will take all necessary measures, precautions, to compensate for these attempts to use military force.”

This statement by Grushko was not limited to the incident with the Cook. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has affirmed in the past week the intention of NATO to deploy command and control centers in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Empire of Chaos preparing for more fireworks in 2016

December 27, 2015

Empire of Chaos preparing for more fireworks in 2016

In his seminal ‘Fall of Rome: And the End of Civilization,’ Bryan Ward-Perkins writes, “Romans before the fall were as certain as we are today that their world would continue forever… They were wrong. We would be wise not to repeat their complacency.”

The Empire of Chaos, today, is not about complacency. It’s about hubris – and fear. Ever since the start of the Cold War the crucial question has been who would control the great trading networks of Eurasia – or the “heartland”, according to Sir Halford John Mackinder (1861–1947), the father of geopolitics.

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RT ✔@RT_com

Russia says Turkish leadership involved in illegal oil trade with #ISIS http://on.rt.com/6y7b

8:03 AM – 2 Dec 2015

We could say that for the Empire of Chaos, the game really started with the CIA-backed coup in Iran in 1953, when the US finally encountered, face to face, that famed Eurasia crisscrossed for centuries by the Silk Road(s), and set out to conquer them all.

Only six decades later, it’s clear there won’t be an American Silk Road in the 21st century, but rather, just like its ancient predecessor, a Chinese one. Beijing’s push for what it calls “One Belt, One Road” is inbuilt in the 21st century conflict between the declining empire and Eurasia integration. Key subplots include perennial NATO expansion and the empire’s obsession in creating a war zone out of the South China Sea.

As the Beijing-Moscow strategic partnership analyses it, the oligarchic elites who really run the Empire of Chaos are bent on the encirclement of Eurasia – considering they may be largely excluded from an integration process based on trade, commerce and advanced communication links.

Beijing and Moscow clearly identify provocation after provocation, coupled with relentless demonization. But they won’t be trapped, as they’re both playing a very long game.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US aimed to nuke civilian populations in enemy cities during Cold War – declassified document

December 23, 2015

US aimed to nuke civilian populations in enemy cities during Cold War – declassified document

A newly released Cold War-era list of nuclear targets shows the US planned to inflict “systematic destruction” on enemy cities and target the “population” of those areas. It is the most comprehensive Cold War nuclear target list to become declassified.

The Strategic Air Command (SAC) Atomic Weapons Requirements Study for 1959, produced in June 1956, was published by the National Security Archive on Tuesday.

Totaling almost 800 pages, the document details targets in over 1,200 cities, including Moscow, Beijing, and Warsaw. The list for each city contains details on targeting the population, along with industrial and infrastructural targets.

Moscow and Leningrad were marked as priority one and two, respectively. Moscow had 179 Designated Ground Zeros (DGZs), while Leningrad had 145, in addition to “population” targets. In both cities, the list identified air power installations such as Soviet Air Force command centers, which the US would have demolished with thermonuclear weapons early in the war.

The document also includes lists of more than 1,100 airfields in the Soviet bloc, with a priority number assigned to each base. The Soviet bomber force was the highest priority for nuclear testing, and the list labels Bykhov and Orsha airfields, both located in Belorussia, as priority one and two, respectively. Medium-range Badger (TU-16) bombers, which would have posed a threat to the US and NATO allies, were present at both bases.

Soviet airfields were to be targeted with bombs ranging from 1.7 to 9 megatons, which were capable of inflicting heavy damage. The US also hailed the necessity of a 60-megaton bomb (4,000 times larger than the Hiroshima bomb’s 15 kilotons), which was capable of delivering “significant results” in the event of war with the Soviet bloc.

The National Security Archive, based at George Washington University, obtained the nuclear target list through the Mandatory Declassification Review (MDR) process.

The Syrian Proxy War: A World War III-esque Summary

December 1, 2015

The Syrian Proxy War: A World War III-esque Summary

Even before any major world powers were willing to go public (so to speak) with their involvement in Syria’s five-year, bloody civil war, it was difficult to keep track of the myriad rebel factions, militant groups, and jihadists battling the Assad regime for control of the country.

In a testament to just how confusing (not to mention terrifying) the situation had become by the time Iran began to mull asking the Russians for help, in April, 18,000 civilians ended up trapped in the Yarmouk refugee camp near Damascus where al-Nusra, ISIS, Hamas, the FSA, and the Assad regime were all fighting each other simultaneously in what UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon called “the worst circle of hell.”

At that juncture, the conflict was still largely a true proxy war. That is, sure there were probably some US Spec Ops running around with the Kurds and perhaps with the FSA and there were almost undoubtedly a handful of Iranian commanders shuttling back and forth between Damascus and Tehran while coordinating with Hezbollah, but the war didn’t look anything like it does now in terms of overt military action by multiple world powers.

After Quds commander Qassem Soleimaini visited the frontlines in Latakia in June, the general vowed to “surprise the world,” with Iran’s next move. Weeks later Soleimaini was in Moscow plotting a Russian intervention with The Kremlin. By the end of September, Russia had built an air base at Latakia and on September 30, a three star general strolled into the US Embassy in Baghdad and informed the Americans that Russian airstrikes in Syria “begin in 1 hour.”

The rest, as they say is history and as we reported earlier today, things just got more complicated as it now appears both Britain and Germany are set to enter the fray. All of this is made immeasurably more difficult to grasp when you consider that it’s nearly impossible to sort through which rebel groups are Saudi, Qatari, and Turkish proxies.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Turkey Exports ISIS Oil To The World: The Scientific Evidence

November 27, 2015

How Turkey Exports ISIS Oil To The World: The Scientific Evidence

Over the course of the last four or so weeks, the media has paid quite a bit of attention to Islamic State’s lucrative trade in “stolen” crude.

On November 16, in a highly publicized effort, US warplanes destroyed 116 ISIS oil trucks in Syria. 45 minutes prior, leaflets were dropped advising drivers (who Washington is absolutely sure are not ISIS members themselves) to “get out of [their] trucks and run away.”

The peculiar thing about the US strikes is that it took The Pentagon nearly 14 months to figure out that the most effective way to cripple Islamic State’s oil trade is to bomb… the oil.

Prior to November, the US “strategy” revolved around bombing the group’s oil infrastructure. As it turns out, that strategy was minimally effective at best and it’s not entirely clear that an effort was made to inform The White House, Congress, and/or the public about just how little damage the airstrikes were actually inflicting. There are two possible explanations as to why Centcom may have sought to make it sound as though the campaign was going better than it actually was, i) national intelligence director James Clapper pulled a Dick Cheney and pressured Maj. Gen. Steven Grove into delivering upbeat assessments, or ii) The Pentagon and the CIA were content with ineffectual bombing runs because intelligence officials were keen on keeping Islamic State’s oil revenue flowing so the group could continue to operate as a major destabilizing element vis-a-vis the Assad regime.

Ultimately, Russia cried foul at the perceived ease with which ISIS transported its illegal oil and once it became clear that Moscow was set to hit the group’s oil convoys, the US was left with virtually no choice but to go along for the ride. Washington’s warplanes destroyed another 280 trucks earlier this week. Russia claims to have vaporized more than 1,000 transport vehicles in November.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Out Of Gas: Gazprom Cuts Off Ukraine, Will Turkey Be Next?

November 25, 2015

Out Of Gas: Gazprom Cuts Off Ukraine, Will Turkey Be Next?

Last month in “Pipeline Politics: Russia, Turkey Clash Over Energy As Syria Rift Shifts Focus To German Line,” we revisited Russia’s recent deal with Shell, E.On and OMV to double the capacity of the Nord Stream pipeline, the shortest route from Russian gas fields to Europe.

The MOU, signed earlier this year, angered the likes of Ukraine and Slovakia. In short, the more gas that can transported via the Nord Stream, the less needs to go through Eastern Europe and that means less revenue for the countries through which the pipelines are built. “They are making idiots of us. You can’t talk for months about how to stabilize the situation and then take a decision that puts Ukraine and Slovakia into an unenviable situation,” Slovak PM Robert Fico exclaimed a few months back.

For those who may need a refresher, here, coutesy of Bloomberg, is a look at the routes by which Russian gas reaches end customers:

Obviously, the conflict in Ukraine has made for a rather awkward situation when it comes to Russian gas supplies. Long story short, Ukraine wants to cut its dependence on Russian gas and if everyone’s telling the truth, Gazprom would probably just as soon not deal with a country that, i) owes Moscow $3 billion on a defaulted bond, and ii) is effectively at war with Russia.

Nevertheless, a couple of months ago the two countries signed an deal ensuring supplies through Q1 of 2016 and guaranteeing Ukraine comparable prices to its neighbors. Well, that looks to have fallen apart, because on Wednesday, Gazprom decided to stop shipments to Ukraine citing a lack of prepayments. Optically, that looks bad for Kiev and so, in the energy equivalent of “you can’t fire me because I quit”, Ukraine announced today that it would stop buying Russian gas.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Says Turkey’s Attack On Jet Was “Planned Provocation” As Ankara Moves Tanks Near Syrian Border

November 25, 2015

Russia Says Turkey’s Attack On Jet Was “Planned Provocation” As Ankara Moves Tanks Near Syrian Border

On Tuesday evening, we took a close look at the circumstances surrounding Turkey’s decision to shoot down a Russian Su-24 near the Syrian border. The incident was the most meaningful escalation in the conflict to date and marks the first time a Russian or Soviet plane has been downed by NATO since 1953.

The pilots ejected, one of whom was shot in his parachute by FSA-affiliated Alwiya al-Ashar militiamen who subsequently celebrated over the body. About an hour later, the FSA’s 1st Coastal Brigade used a US-made TOW to destroy a Russian search and rescue helicopter, killing one Russian marine.

For his part, Vladimir Putin called Erdogan a backstabber and proceeded to accuse Turkey of flying the black flag of ISIS and funding the Islamic State cause by facilitating the sale of illegal crude.

Miraculously, there were no further escalations overnight, but as we outlined in detail on Tuesday, something doesn’t add up about the story Ankara is telling. According to a letter Turkey sent to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the 15 members of the UN Security Council, the Russian warplane, flying at 19,000 feet, “violated Turkish national airspace to a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles in length for 17 seconds.” If you do the math on that, it means the Su-24 was basically flying at stall speed.

WikiLeaks

✔@wikileaks

Journalists: Learn to do basic maths. Look at Turkey’s statement to UN: 1.15 miles / 17 seconds x 60 x 60 = 243 miles/hour = 391 km/hour

12:04 PM – 24 Nov 2015

Here’s how we summed up the situation:

It’s important not to forget the context here. Ankara is fiercly anti-Assad and in addition to being generally displeased with Russia’s efforts to support the regime, just four days ago, Turkey summoned Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov over the alleged bombing of Turkish villages near the border.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Presenting BofA’s “Number One Black Swan Event For The Global Oil Market In 2016”

November 20, 2015

Presenting BofA’s “Number One Black Swan Event For The Global Oil Market In 2016”

We’ve spent quite a bit of time this year talking about Saudi Arabia’s rather precarious financial situation.

To be sure, the move to artificially suppress crude prices has at least partly served the kingdom’s interests in terms of market share and geopolitics. The US shale space has felt the screws tighten and even as wide open capital markets have helped even the weakest players stay in business, production is falling and for the most uneconomic producers, it does indeed appear that the music may finally be about to stop.

As for the “ancillary diplomatic benefits” (i.e. the geopolitical angle) of collapsing crude, the Russians have undoubtedly felt the squeeze and when considered in tandem with Western economic sanctions, one has to believe that the pain from low energy prices has been very real indeed for Moscow.

On balance though, it looks like this was a bad gamble for Riyadh. ZIRP has kept the US shale space in business far longer than the Saudis probably imagined would be possible and instead of forcing Putin to give up Assad, Russia instead built an air base at Latakia and plunged headlong into Syria’s civil war on behalf of the President.

Meanwhile, the fallout from “lower for longer” has been a disaster for the kingdom’s finances. Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is expected to come in between 16% and 20% and for the first time in ages, the country faces a deficit on the current account as well.

The pressure is exacerbated by the necessity of preserving the societal status quo. Put Here’s what we mean (via Deutsche Bank):

The largest energy subsidy beneficiary is the end-consumer in the form of fuel (petrol) subsidies. Bringing up the price of petrol to levels in the UAE, which earlier this year eliminated the petrol subsidy, could provide the government with USD27bn incremental revenues, or 20% of the budget deficit.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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