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Raising Interest Rates Is Like Starting a Fission Chain Reaction
Raising Interest Rates Is Like Starting a Fission Chain Reaction Central bankers seem to think that adjusting interest rates is a nice little tool that they can easily handle. The problem is that higher interest rates affect the economy in many ways simultaneously. The lessons that seem to have been learned from past rate hikes may […]
Nine Reasons Why Globalization Can’t Be Permanent
Nine Reasons Why Globalization Can’t Be Permanent Since the late 1990s, globalization has seemed to be the great hope for the future. Now this great hope seems to be dimming. Globalization sets up conflict in the area of jobs. Countries around the world compete for development and jobs. If there is not enough cheap-to-produce energy to go […]
Could An Oil Surplus Be A Sign Of Things To Come?
Could An Oil Surplus Be A Sign Of Things To Come? Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That has never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back around 1930. As most of us remember, that was not a pleasant time. It was during the […]
Will the World Economy Continue to “Roll Along” in 2018?
Will the World Economy Continue to “Roll Along” in 2018? Once upon a time, we worried about oil and other energy. Now, a song from 1930 seems to be appropriate: Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back […]
Gail Tverberg: The Coming Energy Depression
Gail Tverberg: The Coming Energy Depression The math is straightforward, but cruel As most PeakProsperity.com readers know, we fully agree with the statement: Energy is THE master resource. Without it, nothing can get done. Energy analyst and professional actuary Gail Tverberg returns to the podcast this week to revisit the global energy outlook. And fair warning, Gail warns […]
A Video Game Analogy to Our Energy Predicament
A Video Game Analogy to Our Energy Predicament The way the world economy is manipulated by world leaders is a little like a giant video game. The object of the game is to keep the world economy growing, without too many adverse consequences to particular members of the world economy. We represent this need for growth […]
Will China Bring an Energy-Debt Crisis?
Will China Bring an Energy-Debt Crisis? It is easy for those of us in the West to overlook how important China has become to the world economy, and also the limits it is reaching. The two big areas in which China seems to be reaching limits are energy production and debt. Reaching either of these limits […]
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting […]
Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong
Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong Most of us are familiar with the Politically Correct (PC) World View. William Deresiewicz describes the view, which he calls the “religion of success,” as follows: There is a right way to think and a right way to talk, and also a right set of […]
Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead
Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead Economists have given us a model of how prices and quantities of goods are supposed to interact. Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing […]
World GDP in current US dollars seems to have peaked; this is a problem
World GDP in current US dollars seems to have peaked; this is a problem World GDP in current US dollars is in some sense the simplest world GDP calculation that a person might make. It is calculated by taking the GDP for each year for each country in the local currency (for example, yen) and converting […]
The Next Financial Crisis Is Not Far Away
The Next Financial Crisis Is Not Far Away Recently, a Spanish group called “Ecologist in Action” asked me to give them a presentation on what kind of financial crisis we should expect. They wanted to know when it would be and how it would take place. The answer I had for the group is that we […]
Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”
Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil” Falling interest rates have huge power. My background is as an actuary, so I am very much aware of the great power of interest rates. But a lot of people are not aware of this power, including, I suspect, some of the people making today’s decisions to raise interest […]
Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices
Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices Most people assume that oil prices, and for that matter other energy prices, will rise as we reach limits. This isn’t really the way the system works; oil prices can be expected to fall too low, as we reach limits. Thus, we should not be surprised if […]
The Economy Is Like a Circus
The Economy Is Like a Circus The economy is like a circus. It comes to town, and eventually it leaves town. We get paid in tickets to this circus. As long as the circus stays in town, we can use our tickets. Once the circus leaves town, we are pretty much out of luck.1 The reason […]
