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Crazy Pills

Crazy Pills

It’s not denial. I’m just selective about the reality I accept.” – Bill Watterson

In the brilliantly funny 2001 film Zoolander, Ben Stiller plays a past-his-prime male model named Derek Zoolander. As the plot unfolds, Zoolander is unknowingly groomed and brainwashed by evil fashion designer Jacobim Mugatu (played by Will Ferrell) to assassinate the newly elected prime minister of Malaysia. The prime minister campaigned on a platform of raising the country’s minimum wage and ending child labor – thereby threatening the profitability of the fashion industry – and must be eliminated. Mugatu judges Zoolander to be just dim-witted enough for the task.

The movie is absurd and yet so well executed that it works. The sheer number of derivative memes you can find on Reddit and in the Twitterverse pay tribute to its many memorable scenes. One meme stands out from the rest and serves as an apt expression of the spectacle we’re scratching our feathers over today. Zoolander proclaims to have developed three signature looks: “Ferrari,” “Blue Steel,” and “Le Tigre.” GQ astutely describes them as being completely identical, with “a raised brow, pursed lips and the misguided confidence that everyone knows the difference between them.” After observing the crowd’s adoring reaction to Zoolander’s latest flash of Blue Steel on the runway an exacerbated Mugatu explodes, “They’re all the same face! Doesn’t anyone notice this?! I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!!!

We sympathize with Mugatu’s lament, observing our political class translate its deep misunderstanding of energy into an equally haphazard set of economic sanctions levied against Russia, totally unaware that they are expressing the same ridiculous face at every opportunity. Before proceeding, we should note that pointing out the flaws in the West’s war response is not “pro-Putin,” nor is it “unpatriotic” as some propagandists on Twitter would have you believe…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Six Million Britons Could Face Power Rationing If Russia Cuts Supplies 

Six Million Britons Could Face Power Rationing If Russia Cuts Supplies 

Millions of UK households could face a treacherous winter riddled with power blackouts if Russian natural gas supplies to Europe stop, according to The Times, citing a government report.

Officials from Whitehall have drawn up a “reasonable” worst-case scenario, outlining widespread natgas shortages are possible if Russia continues to tighten the supplies to Europe.

A Whitehall source said:

 “As a responsible government, it is right that we plan for every single extreme scenario, however unlikely.

“Britain is well prepared for any supply disruptions. Unlike EU countries, our North Sea gas reserves are being pumped out at full pelt, Norwegian rigs are directly connected into the UK, and we have the second-largest LNG import infrastructure in Europe – whereas Germany has none.”

The model assumes UK natgas imports from Norway could be slashed by half. Then it assumes no imports of natgas from interconnectors in the Netherlands and Belgium, due to protectionist measures. This would cause authorities to shutter UK natgas power plants and energy-intensive industrial facilities to keep natgas flowing to households.

Reducing natgas power generating capacity on the grid would trigger rolling blackouts for six million homes. Rationing of power would be during peak weekdays between 0700-1000 to 1600-2100.

The UK has vowed to phase out Russian fossil fuels and simultaneously extend the lifespan of Somerset nuclear power plant Hinkley Point B for 18 months despite decommissioning plans at the aging facility and extending the life at coal-fired power plants despite the greenifying of the economy (this will outrage climate alarmist Greta Thunberg).

The Whitehall source added: “Given the EU’s historical dependence on Putin’s gas, the winter could be very hard for countries on the continent.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We Have A Scalability Issue

When the sea refuses to scale up to accommodate your shipwreck. Image credit Timur M via Unsplash

At the dawn of the industrial revolution less than 1 billion humans inhabited this earth. We’ve consumed only a small proportion of the easy to access ores of iron, copper and coal. With the power of coal we’ve became capable to tap a vast amount of new resources. Everything we did seemed miniature in scale compared to the vast resources and pollution sinks (the ocean and the atmosphere) of this planet. It was very easy to believe, that this is really an infinite world… An empty world — at least in economic terms — all there for the taking.

Back in 1950’s, when the great acceleration has really kicked into gear neoclassical economists started to believe that there are really no limits to growth. Needless to say, this observation was completely blindsided to the fact that this growth was due exclusively to a one-time boom in non-renewable resource extraction of both fossil fuels AND minerals.

This energy and material blindness was combined with a good deal of disregard for those who cared to do the math and begged to differ — an act of hubris lasting this very day. As a result, this ‘great acceleration’ has came at the cost of tipping the only habitable ecosystem (at least in a 4 light-year radius) into an irreversible decline.

If you have only 42 minutes to understand what is really going on our planet besides climate change, and would like to know what is this ‘great acceleration’ I’m blathering about, watch this very informative presentation from Will Steffen, emeritus professor of the Australian National University.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Advancing interconnected solutions to the food, energy and finance crises

The governing body of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) met in Rome on April 8, 2022 in an Extraordinary Session to examine the “impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on global food security and related matters under its mandate” and advise on how it should proceed. Meanwhile, just two days earlier, the Civil Society and Indigenous People Mechanism (CSIPM) at U.N. Committee on World Food Security (CFS) called for an Extraordinary Plenary Session of the CFS.

We must consider these developments along with a new initiative from the U.N. and against the background of the FAO’s global food prices index reaching its highest level ever.

In response to the immediate crises provoked by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, on March 14 the U.N. Secretary General (SG) António Manuel de Oliveira Guterres announced the establishment of the Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance (GCRG). On April 5, he released the GCRG’s initial recommendations. According to remarks made by the U.N. SG at the U.N. Security Council Meeting, these initial recommendations are for the consideration of the member states, international financial institutions and others. In brief, they are:

  • On food: To avoid the risk of hunger and famine spreading further, the GRCG urges all countries to keep markets open, resist unjustified and unnecessary export restrictions, and make reserves available to countries at risk of hunger and famine.
  • On energy: While some countries’ plans to release strategic reserves of fossil fuels in an attempt to reduce their dependence on Russian stocks could help ease the current crisis in the short term, the only medium and long-term solution is accelerated deployment of renewable energy, which is not impacted by market fluctuations. Renewable energy deployment is the best option in most cases and will allow the progressive phaseout of coal and all other fossil fuels.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. East Coast Diesel Supply Is Running on Fumes

Last week, East coast inventories of diesel plunged to the lowest seasonal level since government records started more than 30 years ago. The shortage caused a crisis in the diesel market, sending wholesale and retail diesel prices to an all-time high. Diesel is today more expensive in America that it was in 2008, when the price of crude oil surged to nearly $150 a barrel compared with little more than $100 currently.

Diesel is the workhorse of the global economy. It’s used everywhere to keep trucks, tractors, freight trains and factories moving. And its ubiquity means the increase in its price will exacerbate global inflationary pressures.From central bank interest rates to supermarket prices, a lot hinges on diesel. On Tuesday, average U.S. retail diesel prices posted the fifth-consecutive fresh daily record, surging above $5.3 per gallon, up nearly 75% from a year ago. The price spike is worse on the Eastern seaboard, where diesel retails now for more than $6 per gallon, nearly double 2021’s price.The oil tanks in New York harbor are nearly empty for reasons both global and local. Around the world, diesel is in short supply as demand has surged well above pre-Covid levels, spurred by a boom in freight…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead

The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead

Media outlets tend to make it sound as if all our economic problems are temporary problems, related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In fact, world crude oil production has been falling behind needed levels since 2019. This problem, by itself, encourages the world economy to contract in unexpected ways, including in the form of economic lockdowns and aggression between countries. This crude oil shortfall seems likely to become greater in the years ahead, pushing the world economy toward conflict and the elimination of inefficient players.

To me, crude oil production is of particular importance because this form of oil is especially useful. With refining, it can operate tractors used to cultivate crops, and it can operate trucks to bring food to stores to sell. With refining, it can be used to make jet fuel. It can also be refined to make fuel for earth moving equipment used in road building. In recent years, it has become common to publish “all liquids” amounts, which include liquid fuels such as ethanol and natural gas liquids. These fuels have uses when energy density is not important, but they do not operate the heavy machinery needed to maintain today’s economy.

In this post, I provide an overview of the crude oil situation as I see it. In my analysis, I utilize crude oil production data by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) that has only recently become available for the full year of 2021. In some exhibits, I also make estimates for the first quarter of 2022 based on preliminary information for this period.

[1] World crude oil production grew marginally in 2021.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Despite Soaring Prices the Oil Industry Stands To Lose

Image source

The days of Big Oil are numbered. Contrary to modern beliefs it is not going to be killed by the environmental movement, court decisions or conscious investment choices. There is a more hideous process in the background working against not only the most polluting business ever, but its modern adversaries as well. They just don’t know it… yet.

People always had to spend energy in order to get more energy. They had to do the hard work on the fields — sometimes involving animal work — to grow food which then provided energy in return. This was not much different to any other business involving energy today: now, instead of pulling a plow, you have drill holes, install pipes and power up your pumps to get oil; or mine, smelt, manufacture, deliver then install solar panels and wind turbines to do the other hard jobs for you.

On thing remains certain: it always costs energy to get more energy, and just like in case of any other kind of investment, you have to earn (much) more than what you have invested before your equipment fails due to ageing.

The problem, rarely recognized by many, is that this ratio of energy invested vs energy harvested is not fixed. At all. And no, it’s not improving. Despite all technological advancements it is getting worse with every passing year, with every new oil well drilled and — as you will see it later — with every new solar panel or wind turbine installed. As the authors wrote:

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This time really is different

This time really is different

The UK may have avoided a technical recession – two successive quarters of negative growth – in the first half of 2022, but a year from now this will be of little comfort.  This is because – despite the protestations of the US Bidon administration – the downturn in economic activity in the latest (February) growth figures – 0.1 percent, down from 0.8 percent in January – has nothing to do with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  Rather, the decline in economic activity is the result, primarily, of a massive global shortfall in energy, with fossil fuel extraction impaired by the lack of investment during the lockdowns, and with oil down some four million barrels a day from its November 2018 peak.

Last autumn, these energy shortages translated into painful spikes in prices, which helped fan the flames of a general inflation resulting from broken supply chains and the rapid spending of two-years’ worth of state pandemic handouts – mostly to corporations and the wealthier half of the population.  Much of the additional demand generated by state spending, however, has already disappeared – in part due to the additional price of almost everything within the economy at a time when wages are failing to keep up.

In this, at least, the inflation of the 2020s is very different to its 1970s cousin.  In those days, wages were protected by a combination of strong trade unions, governments committed to maintaining full-employment, and financial controls that prevented investor-flight.  None of those constraints exists today and are not compensated for by a minimum wage which, if set too high, can only result in fewer jobs.  In a few sectors of the economy – such as HGV haulage last autumn – market forces have driven up wages.  Although even here, employers have preferred to offer golden handshakes rather than an increase in the hourly wage…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Insanity of Aotearoa New Zealand Closing it’s One and Only Oil Refinery

The Insanity of Aotearoa New Zealand Closing it’s One and Only Oil Refinery

Aotearoa New Zealand is in the process of making the biggest strategic blunder in it’s contemporary history by closing it’s one and only oil refinery, leaving us at the mercy or lack there of, of the fossil fuel industry and the super powers arguing over the lasts of the planets resources.
“One of the changes with the transition is we’re less dependent on a single refinery than we were previously. And our supply will be coming from a range of refineries around the Asian region.”
– Naomi James, speaking on Newsroom Pro Talks

Having exactly Zero oil refineries in Aotearoa makes us less dependent? Smell a neoliberal rat anyone?

New Zealand pre-ordered more oil stocks just before Russia invaded Ukraine, increasing government reserves this month – at a critical time.

“The Government and New Zealand fuel companies together hold more than 1.7 million tonnes of oil in tanks, ship holds, and international ticket contracts acquired just in time for last week’s international action.”
“Just in Time”, this is how this culture teeters like the proverbial Jenga Stack.
Read and watch the Orwellian neo-liberal double speak embedded below. In one foul swoop we are now depending on BP and Exon Mobil to keep our trucks rolling. Watch the dystopian interview with this puppet here; NZ bolsters emergency oil stocks backed by offer of Marsden Point storage

This is late stage capitalism, risking everything because the balance sheet says it’s more profitable importing 100% of the nations refined fuel needs, than this entire country having One Oil Refinery !
Can the reader see how dependent this insane decision makes our isolated country to biosphere incinerating corporations? It’s clear to me that the government should nationalise this strategic asset asap.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Calculation of the Extra Capacity Required of Non-Fossil Fuel Power Generation Systems to Completely Phase Out Fossil Fuels

Calculation of the Extra Capacity Required of Non-Fossil Fuel Power Generation Systems to Completely Phase Out Fossil Fuels

Abstract

The task to phase out fossil fuels is now at hand. Most studies and publications to date focus on why fossil fuels should be phased out. This paper presents the physical requirements in terms of required non-fossil fuel industrial capacity, to completely phase out fossil fuels, and maintain the existing industrial ecosystem. The existing industrial ecosystem dependency on fossil fuels was mapped by fuel (oil, gas, and coal) and by industrial application. Data was collected globally for fossil fuel consumption, physical activity, and industrial actions for the year 2018. The number of vehicles in the global transport fleet was collected by class (passenger cars, buses, commercial vans, HCV Class 8 trucks, delivery trucks, etc.). The rail transport network, the international maritime shipping fleet, and the aviation transport fleet were mapped, in terms of activity and vehicle class. For each type of vehicle class, the distance travelled was estimated. Non-fossil fuel technology units that are commercially available on the market now were assembled to substitute fossil fuel supported technology. An example was selected to represent each vehicle class, for Electrical Vehicle and Hydrogen fuel cell systems. The requirements to substitute the ICE rail network and the maritime fleet with EV and hydrogen fuel cell systems were presented. The quantity of electrical power required to charge the batteries of a complete EV system was estimated. The quantity of electrical power to manufacture the required hydrogen for a complete H-cell system was estimated. An examination and comparison between EV and H-cell systems was conducted. Other fossil fuel industrial tasks like electrical power generation, building heating with gas and steel manufacture with coal were mapped and requirements for non-fossil fuel substitution were out estimated…

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Methane emissions jumped by record amount in 2021, NOAA says

Carbon dioxide emissions also rose more than 2 parts per million for the 10th consecutive year

Pump jacks operate while others stand idle in the Belridge oil field near McKittrick, Calif., on Nov. 3, 2021. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Global methane emissions soared by a record amount in 2021, eclipsing the record set the year before, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, demonstrating the huge challenge facing policymakers who have pledged to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Methane, the second biggest contributor to human-caused global warming after carbon dioxide, is emitted in part by oil and natural gas production, particularly shale gas drilling. But it’s also emitted by livestock farming and landfills, as well as wetlands whose waterlogged soils, rich in microbes, are ideal for naturally producing methane.

Since last year, about 100 countries have signed on to a Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut emissions 30 percent by the end of the decade. Some major emitters, such as Russia and China, still have not.

“Our data show that global emissions continue to move in the wrong direction at a rapid pace,” Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, said in a statement. “The evidence is consistent, alarming, and undeniable.”

Recently, climate experts and diplomats have put extra emphasis on controlling methane emissions because it is relatively easy to reduce the emissions by stopping methane escaping from oil and gas wells and leaking from pipelines. Major multinational oil and gas companies have emitted methane in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. And Russia ranks among the biggest emitters with aging pipelines stretching for roughly 2,500 miles from the remote Yamal Peninsula in Russia to consumers in Europe.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Renewables Can’t Solve Europe’s Energy Crisis

Why Renewables Can’t Solve Europe’s Energy Crisis

  • Europe has been aggressively pursuing a clean energy future and the end of fossil fuels, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the shortcomings of renewables.
  • The soaring prices of key metals and the length of time it takes to implement renewable energy projects have meant Europe is turning to fossil fuels to solve its energy crisis.
  • The EU is planning to replace Russian gas with LNG imports, coal, and even fuel oil, with a relatively small amount of the gas to be replaced by wind and solar.

Germany is preparing for gas rationing. France’s power grid operator is asking consumers to use less electricity. In the UK, protests are breaking out over the latest electricity price hike that plunged millions of households into what one local think tank called fuel stress. Europe has a serious energy problem.

The problem dates back years and points to a persistent complacency on the part of European governments that whatever happens, there will always be gas from Russia. After all, even during the Cold War Russia pumped billions of cubic meters of gas to European countries. Now, things are different, and it’s not just because of the war in Ukraine.

Europe has been enthusiastically trying to reduce its dependence on all fossil fuels, not just Russian gas, for a few years now. The EU recently boasted that in 2022 renewable energy sources accounted for 37.5 percent of gross electricity consumption, with wind and hydro constituting two-thirds of the total renewable energy output. Why, then, one wonders, would Germany have to brace for gas rationing and France ask its citizens to consume less electricity? Now that has a bit to do with the war in Ukraine…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EU Pushes To Break “Energy Taboo” With Proposed Ban On Russian Coal Imports

EU Pushes To Break “Energy Taboo” With Proposed Ban On Russian Coal Imports

Update (0825ET): As EU ambassadors meet on Tuesday to discuss another proposal on Russian sanctions, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock insisted that the EU would “completely end” its fossil fuel dependence on Russia, starting with coal.

Of course, as we noted below, Germany is among the most dependent EU economies on Russian energy. Weaning its economy off Russian energy without triggering a major domestic crisis and “total collapse.”

US equity futures tumbled on the news as investors braced for more international fallout from increasing tensions between Europe and the Russians, which could lead to even higher energy prices.

* * *

Not to be outdone by tiny Lithuania (which claims to have officially weaned itself off Russian gas imports by building an LNG terminal), the European Commission has devised a controversial proposal to ban imports of Russian coal, along with a host of other measures comprising a new sanctions package to be introduced on Tuesday, according to reports from WSJ, Reuters and a host of other media outlets.

Along with banning imports of Russian coal, the package also calls for an import ban on rubber, chemicals and other products from Russia worth up to €9 billion a year.

If passed, the proposal would mark the first energy sanctions on Russia since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. Although it wouldn’t touch oil and gas, such a ban would break the so-called “energy taboo”, according to Bloomberg’s Javier Blas.

While thermal coal isn’t nearly as critical as oil and gas, it’s still a “big deal,” Blas pointed out.

Coal-fired power plants are still being used across the EU, though most member states expect to completely phase them out by 2030. Russia has the second-largest coal reserves in the world. In 2020, it mined 328 million metric tons, making it the sixth-largest producer globally…

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Implications of Refinery closures for Homeland Security & critical infrastructure safety

Implications of Refinery closures for Homeland Security & critical infrastructure safety

Preface. The talk of electric vehicles saving the world from greenhouse gases is nonsense, a red herring to distract everyone from what’s really at stake, and from the material requirements to build them with rare earth and other scarce minerals, and the immense amount of fossil energy required to make them in mining, smelting, manufacture and transport of thousands of parts, and so on. But just focusing on greenhouse gases is a very sneaky way to ignore myriad obstacles.

Cars are just 14% of emissions, and EV only replace gasoline, not the diesel essential for heavy-duty trucks, locomotives, and ships, the kerosene for airplanes, the lubricants essential for all motors, including EV, or the road asphalt EV and diesel trucks move on. EV are less than 1% of cars and always will be, they are too expensive for all but the richest 5% who also have garages and want one and live in places where heat and cold won’t reduce performance and battery life.

A National Laboratory scientist on Chinese gasoline, refining, and petroleum products:

Over the years I have taken the opportunity to ask oil companies about how they would deal with a demand slate stripped of it gasoline fraction, given that that is about the only fraction being targeted by electrification. Chevron’s answer was fairly simple: “It’s our profit center so we’d probably close the refinery” (thus no oil products). Two years in a row I asked the same question to Exxon during some briefings, and both times they said they were “looking into it” and would get back to me (but they never did)…

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Food shortages as the energy crisis grows and supply chains break?

Food shortages as the energy crisis grows and supply chains break?

Preface. This is a long preface followed by two articles about how supply chains and complex tractors may be affected by energy shortages and consequent supply chain failures in the future.Which we’re already seeing as massive numbers of ships sit offshore waiting to be unloaded, and a shortage of truckers to deliver goods when they do arrive.

Supply chain failures will only get worse, affecting food supply and making the prediction of 3 billion more people by 2050 unlikely.  We are running out of time to replace fossil fuels with something else that is unknown and definitely not commercial for transportation, manufacturing and other essential services and products. Even the electric grid needs natural gas to stay up, no matter how many wind turbines or solar panels are built (Friedemann 2016).

The reason time is running out is that global conventional oil, where 90% of our petroleum comes from, peaked in 2008 (EIA 2018 page 45), and world oil production of both conventional and unconventional oil in 2018 (EIA 2020).

In the unlikely event you don’t know why this is scary, consider that we are alive today thanks to heavy-duty transportation, which runs almost exclusively on diesel, four billion of us are alive due to finite natural gas derived fertilizer, 500,000 products are made out of fossil fuels, and much of our essential manufacturing (cement, steel, metals, ceramics, glass, microchips) depend on the high heat of fossil fuels. There is not much time to come up with processes to electrify or use hydrogen to replace fossil fuels, which don’t exist yet, let alone rebuild trillions of dollars of infrastructure and a new unknown energy distribution system, triple the electric grid transmission system, and replace hundreds of millions of vehicles and equipment to run on “something else” (Friedemann 2021).

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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