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Eight insights based on December 2017 energy data
Eight insights based on December 2017 energy data BP recently published energy data through December 31, 2017, in its Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. The following are a few points we observe, looking at the data: [1] The world is making limited progress toward moving away from fossil fuels. The two bands that top fossil fuels that […]
Our Energy Problem Is a Quantity Problem
Our Energy Problem Is a Quantity Problem Reading many of today’s energy articles, it is easy to get the impression that our energy problem is a quality problem—some energy is polluting; other energy is hoped to be less polluting. There is a different issue that we are not being told about. It is the fact that having […]
How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others
How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others Why have long-term interest rates generally fallen since 1981? Why have asset prices risen? Can these trends be expected to continue? The standard evaluation approach by actuaries and economists seems to be to look at past patterns and assume that […]
Why oil prices can’t rise very high, for very long
Why oil prices can’t rise very high, for very long Oil prices are now as high as they have been for three years. At this writing, Brent is $74.14 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate is at $68.76. These prices aren’t really very high, if a person looks at the situation from a longer term point […]
Energy Return on Energy Invested – Prof. Charles Hall’s Comments
Energy Return on Energy Invested – Prof. Charles Hall’s Comments In my most recent post, Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work, I made some comments about the calculation of Energy Returned on Energy Invested. Professor Charles Hall sent me the following response to what I said, which he wanted to have published. I have […]
Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work
Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work The most prevalent view regarding future oil supply, as well as total energy supply, seems to be fairly closely related to that expressed by Peak Oilers. Future fossil fuel supply is assumed to be determined by the resources in the ground and the technology available for […]
Our Latest Oil Predicament
Our Latest Oil Predicament It is impossible to tell the whole oil story, but perhaps I can offer a few insights regarding where we are today. [1] We already seem to be back to the falling oil prices and refilling storage tanks scenario. US crude oil stocks hit their low point on January 19, 2018 and have started […]
Raising Interest Rates Is Like Starting a Fission Chain Reaction
Raising Interest Rates Is Like Starting a Fission Chain Reaction Central bankers seem to think that adjusting interest rates is a nice little tool that they can easily handle. The problem is that higher interest rates affect the economy in many ways simultaneously. The lessons that seem to have been learned from past rate hikes may […]
Nine Reasons Why Globalization Can’t Be Permanent
Nine Reasons Why Globalization Can’t Be Permanent Since the late 1990s, globalization has seemed to be the great hope for the future. Now this great hope seems to be dimming. Globalization sets up conflict in the area of jobs. Countries around the world compete for development and jobs. If there is not enough cheap-to-produce energy to go […]
Will the World Economy Continue to “Roll Along” in 2018?
Will the World Economy Continue to “Roll Along” in 2018? Once upon a time, we worried about oil and other energy. Now, a song from 1930 seems to be appropriate: Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back […]
A Video Game Analogy to Our Energy Predicament
A Video Game Analogy to Our Energy Predicament The way the world economy is manipulated by world leaders is a little like a giant video game. The object of the game is to keep the world economy growing, without too many adverse consequences to particular members of the world economy. We represent this need for growth […]
Will China Bring an Energy-Debt Crisis?
Will China Bring an Energy-Debt Crisis? It is easy for those of us in the West to overlook how important China has become to the world economy, and also the limits it is reaching. The two big areas in which China seems to be reaching limits are energy production and debt. Reaching either of these limits […]
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting […]
Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong
Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong Most of us are familiar with the Politically Correct (PC) World View. William Deresiewicz describes the view, which he calls the “religion of success,” as follows: There is a right way to think and a right way to talk, and also a right set of […]
Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead
Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead Economists have given us a model of how prices and quantities of goods are supposed to interact. Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing […]
