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Canary in the Coal-MIne–Emerging Market Contagion
CANARY IN THE COAL-MINE – EMERGING MARKET CONTAGION Emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks have weakened Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been felt here most clearly The risk to Europe and Japan is significant Turkey may be the key market to watch As US interest rates continue to normalise and US tariffs […]
Record Deficits, Stronger Dollar Equals Record China Trade Deficit
Record Deficits, Stronger Dollar Equals Record China Trade Deficit Sometimes math is a real bitch. Donald Trump is a smart guy. I know he knows math. Too bad he’s ignoring it. Here’s the gig. The title says it all. Government spending is rising rapidly. More actual money is flowing into the US economy. Where is that […]
Bank of Canada Hikes Rates By 25bps, Loonie Rises On Hawkish Take
Bank of Canada Hikes Rates By 25bps, Loonie Rises On Hawkish Take The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by 25bps to 1.5%, in line with consensus estimates. In justifying the move, the Bank said it expects the global economy to grow by about 3.75% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, adding that the […]
Why Trade War Is Now Set To Get Much Worse
Why Trade War Is Now Set To Get Much Worse In a note written on Monday, ahead of today’s latest escalation by the US which unveiled a list of $200BN in incremental tariffs sending risks assets sharply lower and yet which was perfectly expected and previewed both here and elsewhere as it was part of […]
Experts Warn Of Chaos For The U.S. Economy As China Declares That “The Biggest Trade War In Economic History” Has Begun
Experts Warn Of Chaos For The U.S. Economy As China Declares That “The Biggest Trade War In Economic History” Has Begun Nothing is going to be the same after this. On Friday, the United States hit China with 34 billion dollars in tariffs, and China immediately responded with similar tariffs. If it stopped there, this […]
Has the PBoC deliberately weakened CNY as part of the trade war?
Has the PBoC deliberately weakened CNY as part of the trade war? It has been another trade war week, as the market has been looking for clues on the Chinese retaliation measures against the Trump tariffs that are planned to go live on 6 July. Global trade momentum started to weaken even before the trade […]
Trump’s Trade Tantrum: On Tipping Points and Authoritarian Peril
Trump’s Trade Tantrum: On Tipping Points and Authoritarian Peril Photo by Graham C99 | CC BY 2.0 The Tangerine Tosser’s triple trade tiff – with China, the European Union, and the United States’ NAFTA partners (Canada and Mexico) – has the potential to spark an American and global economic meltdown. Classic signs of a coming […]
China Has Quietly Implemented A 6% Across The Board ‘Tariff’ On All US Imports
China Has Quietly Implemented A 6% Across The Board ‘Tariff’ On All US Imports Trump and Xi have spent much of the last few weeks tossing tariff grenades across the Pacific Ocean as retaliatory retaliations grow ever stronger in rhetoric and potential escalations. Then this week, Trump seemed to back away from his most serious […]
Leaked Note By Chinese Think Tank Warns Of Potential “Financial Panic”
Leaked Note By Chinese Think Tank Warns Of Potential “Financial Panic” It’s not just Trump who is concerned about the level of the S&P as a result of escalating trade war with China: it appears that China is growing worried as well, and for good reason – as we noted earlier, the Shanghai Composite already […]
Trump’s Doomsday Gamble in China Trade War
Trump’s Doomsday Gamble in China Trade War President Trump dramatically resumed a trade war footing this week with Beijing, threatening to impose tariffs on virtually all imported Chinese goods to the US. After earlier negotiations this month appeared to avert a clash, the Trump administration is back to full trade war mode. With fiery language, […]
What’s the End Game?
What’s the End Game? In the rush of Trumped-up events, history — of the last month, week, hour — repeatedly gets plowed (or tweeted) under. Who can remember what happened so long ago? Perhaps it’s not surprising then that, in the wave of abuse from the president and his men (including economic adviser Larry Kudlow […]
China’s Oil Trade Retaliation is Iran’s Gain
China’s Oil Trade Retaliation is Iran’s Gain I’ve told you that once you start down the Trade War path forever will it dominate your destiny. Well here we are. Trump slaps big tariffs on aluminum and steel in a bid to leverage Gary Cohn’s ICE Wall plan to control the metals and oils futures markets. I’m […]
Trade End Game Scenarios: Boycott Treasuries vs Yuan Devaluation
Trade End Game Scenarios: Boycott Treasuries vs Yuan Devaluation Since there is no longer any reasonable debate about a trade war having started, let’s investigate how it ends. End Game Analysis The end-game retaliation comes via a global boycott of the Treasury auctions. Foreign entities fund half the US fiscal deficit, which is set to […]
Trump, Tariffs and Trade Deficits
Trump, Tariffs and Trade Deficits “The Chinese are raping us” and “Canada is killing our farmers”! Such melodramatic claims from Trump resonate with many Americans, because the effects of globalization have been devastating for half the population. To his credit, Trump has been harping on trade deficit for thirty years – he was complaining about […]
U.S.-China Trade War Will Hurt Shale Drillers
U.S.-China Trade War Will Hurt Shale Drillers President Trump is back on his warhorse called Tariffs, yesterday announcing he was considering the introduction of a 10-percent levy on Chinese goods worth US$200 billion. The latest escalation in the tariff exchange, however, is a little bit different than all the others so far. It’s different because […]
