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“We Print It Digitally”: Futures, Gold Soar After Powell Vows “Lot More We Can Do”
“We Print It Digitally”: Futures, Gold Soar After Powell Vows “Lot More We Can Do”
It took Jerome Powell just two days to confirm what we said late on Friday, namely that with the Fed expected to boost QE by over $3 trillion (assuming Powell doesn’t cut rates negative), the Fed chair said that “there’s a lot more we can do” and just so everyone, including Ben Bernanke understands what the Fed does, he added “We print [money] digitally… we have the ability to create money digitally and we do that by buying Treasury Bills or bonds or other government guaranteed securities.” Of course, traders ignored the “other” part of Powell’s message, namely that the recovery would take at least until the end of 2021, or the implication that stocks first need to crash before the Fed unleashes more QE, and as a result S&P futures surged more than 2% overnight, rising above 2,920, with the last 30 points in that burst coming after news out of biotech company Moderna which reported it may be getting closer to a coronavirus vaccine.
Positive sentiment was boosted by ongoing reopenings with California’s economy is now three-quarters open after virus restrictions were eased, while Apple said it will open more than 25 U.S. stores this week, adding to almost 100 globally, and helping push Apple stock 1.5% higher.
“With the worst of the pandemic likely behind us, central bank supported equity markets are unlikely to re-test their lows,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “Yet, while reopening momentum may well carry risk assets a bit higher over the near term, the tepid economic recovery and deep uncertainty over the virus outlook argue against a pivot to more risk-on positioning.”
CHART OF THE WEEK: Primary Silver Miners REAL COST Higher Than Published All-In-Sustaining Cost
CHART OF THE WEEK: Primary Silver Miners REAL COST Higher Than Published All-In-Sustaining Cost
The chart of the week shows that some of the leading primary silver miners total REAL COSTS are higher than their published All-In Sustaining Cost. My analysis suggests that the companies’ All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC), are not really “All-In.” So, I quickly did my calculations based on these companies’ adjusted earnings. If I used their net income, their estimated Breakeven would be much higher.
In the chart below, the four primary silver mining companies (if we can still call some of them that) posted their AISC for Q1 2020. The biggest JOKE of them all is Hecla, which reported a low $11.06 All-In Sustaining Cost for silver. Well, that’s surprising when Hecla suffered a $17 million net income loss for the period. So, how could Hecla be losing money if its All-In Sustaining Cost was $11.06 when they received $16.94 per ounce for their silver during Q1 2020?
It’s quite simple… the All-In Sustaining Cost is a BOGUS METRIC used to confuse and bamboozle unsophisticated investors… and it works like a charm:
So, if you scan across the chart above, you will see the individual company’s AISC in BLUE, while the RED BARS show my simple estimated Breakeven for each. Endeavour Silver gets the TAKE ME OUT THE WOODSHED AWARD because it’s losing money hand-over-fist ever since it had to shut down its El Cubo Mine, a COMPLETE WASTE of a mine that should have never been acquired by the company.
In a nutshell, if you are a new investor looking for HOT silver mines to invest, do me a favor and pay no attention whatsoever to the All-In Sustaining Cost metric. I need to do more analysis in this area to help investors from buying the WORST CANDIDATES in the industry.
TIGHTNESS CONTINUES IN RETAIL SILVER MARKET: Best Gold-Silver Eagle Buy Prices Update
TIGHTNESS CONTINUES IN RETAIL SILVER MARKET: Best Gold-Silver Eagle Buy Prices Update
With the lack of availability of precious metals retail bullion products, the premiums for gold and silver coins-bars continue to be quite elevated. Depending on the dealer, 2020 Silver Eagle premiums are still ranging between $7.5 and $13. Thus, the Silver Eagle premiums are between 47-81% of the spot price, depending on the dealer.
I continue to check the U.S. Mint website, but there still hasn’t been any update for Silver Eagle sales for May. While the U.S. Mint sold 7,000 oz of Gold Eagles in May so far, it shows no figure for Silver Eagles. The large online dealers are still struggling to obtain supplies of silver bullion products with the availability pushed back 2-4 weeks or longer.
Precious metals investors are wondering when retail gold and silver premiums will begin to decline. That’s a good question. Gold Eagle Premiums back in early 2009 shot up to 8% and then declined substantially in early summer. By the end of 2009, Gold Eagle premiums had fallen back to 4%, shown here from GoldChartsRus:
The gold and silver coin premiums used on Nick Laird’s GoldChartsRus website mainly come from MONEX. While these premiums provide investors with a guide, I wouldn’t trust MONEX as a company. Monex seems to continue to get into trouble by DEFRAUDING investors.
Federal Court Allows CFTC Case Against $290M Fraud to Proceed
The CFTC alleges Monex Deposit Company scammed thousands of retail customers out of more than $290 million (July 26, 2019)
Newport Beach precious metal dealer Monex accused of $290-million fraud (Sept 16, 2017)
So, good luck if you use or want to use MONEX to acquire precious metals.
Even though some gold bullion product premiums have declined, it will be interesting to see how the premiums will change as the global contagion continues to wreak havoc in the financial system and economy.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Silver Coin Premiums Soar: Signal “Alt-Money” Demand As Re-Opening Recovery Hype Fades
Silver Coin Premiums Soar: Signal “Alt-Money” Demand As Re-Opening Recovery Hype Fades
Silver is the matrix of precious metals:
- on the one hand, it is an industrial metal, critical to the production process in many of the world’s most in-demand products;
- and on the other hand, it has been ‘money’ for millennia, playing second-fiddle as a spending ‘asset’ relative to gold’s ‘wealth’.
The question is always, which of these demand/supply attributes is more prevalent at any one time.
Right now, is it the “blue pill” of blissful ignorance that an economic recovery is imminent and v-shaped; or is it the unpleasant truth of the “red pill” that this is the beginning of the end of the current system and a post-COVID world will look very different (and require protection).
Well, we may have the answer.
The price of silver coins is surging (‘Monetary’ demand) as futures prices sink (‘industrial’ demand), somewhat shunning the hope-filled hyping of stocks’ recovery off the lows in March…
And in fact, this is the largest (physical) silver coin premium since Bernanke disappointed the markets in 2011 and since Lehman sent investors scrambling…
Additionally, the demand for “monetary” silver may be driven by the fact that it has never been cheaper relative to gold…
In ancient Greece during the age of Pericles, gold was valued at 14x silver. In ancient Rome, Julius Caesar valued gold at 12x silver.
It remained this way for centuries.
Even in the earliest days of the United States, eighteen centuries after Caesar, The Coinage Act of 1792 established a ratio of 15:1.
(According to the law, one US dollar is supposed to be 24.1 grams of silver, or 1.6 grams of gold. So those pieces of paper in your wallet are not dollars– they are technically “Federal Reserve Notes”.)
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Top Primary Silver Miner Cost Of Production Now Breaking Even
Top Primary Silver Miner Cost Of Production Now Breaking Even
One of the top primary silver mining company’s is now breaking even producing silver. Pan American Silver just released its Q1 2020 Report surprising analysts by posting a net loss of $77 million. However, if we go by the company’s “Adjusted Earnings,” Pan American Silver reported a $7.6 million loss. This is the figure I use for my calculations in determining the “Estimated Breakeven.”
I will be posting a new Youtube Video update on the details of the Silver Market and the Breakeven Analysis this weekend.
Here is a quick peek of Pan American Silver’s All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) that jumped in the first quarter of 2020:
According to Pan American Silver’s calculation of its All-In-Sustaining Cost for silver, it jumped to $15.26 in Q1 2020. The company stated the reason for the increase was mainly due to:
lower by-product credits, driven mainly by lower realized base metal prices; increased concentrate smelting and refining charges; and higher direct operating costs per ounce in part due to lower silver grades.
Because Pan American Silver produces so much copper, zinc, and lead, along with silver, these base metal prices impact the by-product credit amount in the analysis of the company’s All-In Sustaining Cost. The base metals prices declined considerably during the first quarter of 2020, thus pushing up the All-In Sustaining Cost for silver.
So, with Pan American Silver’s All-In Sustaining Cost for Q1 2020 at $15.26, it is now very close to the current spot price of silver at $15.48. However, with the lower oil price in April and May, this will likely lower the company’s production costs in Q2 2020. But, if base metal prices continue to be weak or weaker in Q2 2020, Pan American Silver may not see much of a lower AISC when the results come out in July.
Interestingly, my Estimated Breakeven for Pan American Silver is much higher than the company’s AISC. Again, I will provide the details in my newest video update.
Please check back for my newest Youtube Video Update this weekend.
The Global Contagion Impacted Silver Production The Most
The Global Contagion Impacted Silver Production The Most
According to a new report released by GlobalData, the global contagion impacted silver production the most while gold mine supply fared the best. The two largest silver producing countries, Mexico and Peru, have issued temporary shutdowns lasting nearly two months.
Peru, which started its lockdown on March 15th, extended it last week to end on May 10th. The Mexican Government issued their temporary shutdown on March 30th and have also extended it to May 30th. With Mexico and Peru on lockdown, a considerable amount of silver mine supply has been curtailed.
I came across this data from the Kitco.com article by Anna Golubova, COVID-19 mining shutdowns hurt silver production the most, gold the least – report:
The latest report from GlobalData looked at different mining sectors and how they have been affected across the globe. Silver fared the worst, while gold was hurt the least out of all the major mining sectors the report looked at.
There were temporary shutdowns introduced by more than 1,600 mines across 32 countries as of April 3, the report stated. Since then, the total mine shutdown have already dropped to 729, GlobalData added.
… At the end of the day, silver production was hit the most by temporary shutdowns. As of April 27, there were an equivalent of 65.8% of yearly global silver production still on hold, GlobalData identified.
As the GlobalData reports, nearly two-thirds of current global silver mine supply was still on hold. So, it depends on how long these primary and by-product silver mines have been offline.
Here is a chart using the data from the article linked above:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
IMPORTANT TOM CLOUD PRECIOUS METALS UPDATE: Including Gold & Silver Eagle Best Buy Prices
IMPORTANT TOM CLOUD PRECIOUS METALS UPDATE: Including Gold & Silver Eagle Best Buy Prices
As the global contagion continues to cause a great deal of uncertainty in the markets, I thought it was a good idea for precious metals dealer Tom Cloud to provide a new update. Tom starts off the video saying that in his 44 years in the industry, he has never seen anything like the current situation in the precious metals markets.
Tom stated that one of his wealthier clients last week took money out of the banking system and purchased a large sum ($millions) of physical precious metals. Unfortunately, there still are only a fraction of financial planners that advise their clients to own a percentage of physical gold and silver in their portfolio. I believe investors should be increasing the typical 5-10% of precious metals in one’s portfolio to at least 20-25%.
Tom also went on to say that some leading financial analysts are calling for a 30% drop in U.S. GDP by Q2 2020. This is no longer a recessionary event. Rather, we are heading into a Depression, the likes we haven’t seen for nearly eight decades. Very few Americans are prepared for what’s coming.
With investment demand for physical precious metals at near-record levels, Gold and Silver Eagle premiums are some of the highest ever. It is quite amazing to see Silver Eagles buy prices more than $10 over the spot price. One large online dealer is selling its Silver Eagles for nearly $12 over spot. Thus, Silver Eagle premiums are ranging between 50-80% over spot.
I also wanted to provide an update on the Gold & Silver Eagle BEST BUY prices. I spoke to Tom yesterday for about a half-hour. He told me that Silver Eagle premiums increased again, but CLOUD HARD ASSETS still has the lowest prices versus the top leading online dealers:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
COMING COLLAPSE OF U.S. FINANCIAL PONZI SCHEME: Leading To Exploding Gold & Silver Prices
COMING COLLAPSE OF U.S. FINANCIAL PONZI SCHEME: Leading To Exploding Gold & Silver Prices
Americans are totally unprepared for the coming collapse in the U.S. Financial Ponzi Scheme and Economy. While the highly-leveraged debt-based U.S. financial system and economy were going to implode on their own in due time, the global contagion has sped up the process considerably.
Unfortunately, there is no way that the U.S. economy will ever return back to the level it was at the end of 2019. Furthermore, I believe that the United States reached the ultimate peak of unconventional shale oil production. This is terrible news for the U.S. government policy of “U.S. Energy Independence.” With the oil price trading at $20, and soon to reach the single digits, shale oil companies are being destroyed DAY IN & DAY OUT.
With the destruction of the U.S. Shale Industry now taking place right in front of our eyes, the “LAST HOPE” for continuing business as usual, the Collapse of the U.S. Financial Ponzi Scheme has begun. I discussed the details in my newest video, U.S. Ponzi Scheme Collapse Lead To Exploding Gold & Silver Prices:
In the new video update, I provide colorful charts, including information you can’t find anywhere else on the internet. One of these charts shows how the massive increase in total U.S. debt was the primary factor in driving U.S. GDP to a record of $21.7 trillion in 2019. Early on, the increase in the United States energy consumption paralleled the rise in the country’s GDP and total debt levels. However, this all changed after 1970; when U.S. conventional oil production peaked, followed by Nixon dropping the Gold-Dollar peg.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why the price of silver could skyrocket
Why the price of silver could skyrocket
By the mid-6th century BC, Darius the Great was ‘King of Kings’, ruling over the vast Achaemenid Empire.
By that time, gold and silver had already been in use by earlier civilizations for thousands of years.
There are cuneiform tablets that are nearly 4,000 years old from ancient Sumeria which record commercial transactions made in gold and silver.
And subsequent civilizations– the Babylonians, Egyptians, Lydians, etc. all used gold or silver in commerce.
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But Darius had a unique idea.
He borrowed the idea of minting gold and silver coins from the Lydians… but then established a fixed exchange rate between the two metals.
Darius decreed that one gold “daric” was worth 13.5 silver coins– one of the first examples in history of a fixed, bimetallic standard.
His idea caught on. And for thousands of years afterward, later civilizations established a fixed gold/silver ratio.
In ancient Greece during the age of Pericles, gold was valued at 14x silver. In ancient Rome, Julius Caesar valued gold at 12x silver.
It remained this way for centuries.
Even in the earliest days of the United States, eighteen centuries after Caesar, The Coinage Act of 1792 established a ratio of 15:1.
(According to the law, one US dollar is supposed to be 24.1 grams of silver, or 1.6 grams of gold. So those pieces of paper in your wallet are not dollars– they are technically “Federal Reserve Notes”.)
In modern times there is no longer a fixed ratio between gold and silver, though its long-term average over the last several decades has been between 50:1 and 80:1.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
PERU EXTENDS LOCK-DOWN ALONG WITH MEXICO: An Estimated 40% Of Global Silver Mine Supply Now Offline
PERU EXTENDS LOCK-DOWN ALONG WITH MEXICO: An Estimated 40% Of Global Silver Mine Supply Now Offline
Now that the Peruvian Government announced an extension of the country’s state of emergency until April 26th, the world’s first and second-largest silver producers have taken 40% of global silver mine supply offline for a month. Actually, Peru first announced its national quarantine on March 15th. So, the country’s mines will be shut down for more than a month when the state of emergency is projected to end on April 26th. But, will it?
According to the Reuters article, Peru’s Vizcarra extends state of emergency to April 26th; thecountry will remain on lockdown for an additional two weeks:
Including Mexico’s state of emergency issued on April 2nd to last until the end of the month, the total estimated silver production lost from these two countries could be 28 million oz (Moz). That is 40% of global mine supply. But, what if additional mines have been shut down in other countries?
As I stated in previous articles and my Youtube video updates, we could see between 100-150 Moz of global silver mine supply lost this year. However, if we just consider the estimated 28 Moz of silver production lost from Mexico and Peru, that would equal 28,000 of the 1,000 oz wholesale silver bars.
With the continued surge in demand for silver bullion pushing availability of products back weeks and for months, it has also impacted the 1,000 oz wholesale silver bar market. How will the reduction of 28,000 wholesale 1,000 oz silver bars impact the market in the next few months?? Good question.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
GLOBAL SILVER SUPPLY COLLAPSE ON ITS WAY: Mexico mining suspension to hit silver supply
GLOBAL SILVER SUPPLY COLLAPSE ON ITS WAY: Mexico mining suspension to hit silver supply
Due to Mexico’s Ministry of Health issuing an Executive Order for the immediate suspension of non-essential activities until April 30th, the mining industry in the country has now come to an abrupt halt. The mining industry was hoping for an exemption to the Executive Order, but was not granted one. So, companies are now suspending production and putting their mines on care and maintenance.
According to the article on the Mining Journal website, Mexico mining suspension to hit silver supply:
Under the government decree, non-essential activities are to be suspended immediately until April 30.
The decision is expected to have a significant impact on the supply of silver at a time when demand for silver coins is high. Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer at some 23% of world production and produced more than 200 million ounces in 2019, up from 196.6 million ounces in 2018.
With Mexico shutting down its mines, including the continued closure of Peru’s Mining Industry announced on March 15th, nearly 40% of global silver production is offline. Peru’s government stated that the national quarantine would last 15 days. However, we have passed that point, and there is no announcement of a return back to work.
Here are the top ten silver producing countries in the world in 2018:
In 2018, Mexico and Peru accounted for 342 million oz of silver production. If mines in Mexico and Peru remain shut down for a month, that will cut silver production by 28 million oz. So, each month that Mexico and Peru are offline, would reduce silver mine supply by 28 million oz. However, I believe we are going to see more countries shut down their mines for an extended period as the global contagion continues to spread.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
U.S. Silver Eagle Sales Surge Past 5 Million In March: Availability At Low Prices… CHECK HERE
U.S. Silver Eagle Sales Surge Past 5 Million In March: Availability At Low Prices… CHECK HERE
With the U.S. Mint now temporarily suspended, it will become even more difficult to acquire Silver Eagles. According to James Anderson at SilverDoctors, the U.S. Mint shut down its West Point Facility due to an officer testing positive for the virus. The U.S. Mint West Point facility will remain closed for two weeks until further notice.
However, the U.S Mint updated its Silver Eagle sales on the last day of the month to show a total of 5.5 million sold. Since my previous update, the U.S. Mint sold another 650,000 Silver Eagles, for a total of 5,482,500.
The last time the U.S. Mint sold Silver Eagles to this level in March was back in 2014, when 5,354,000 coins were sold. With the premiums on Silver Eagles exploding, investors are now quoted delivery times of 3-4+ weeks or months.
I spoke with Dan at Cloud Hard Assets today, and I was shocked to find out that the quoted time for 1,000 oz wholesale silver bars was 4-6 weeks!!!! Can you believe that?? When the silver price crashed in 2008, investors were buying 1,000 oz bars and turning them into small coins and bars. However, that option is much more difficult because the availability of 1,000 wholesale silver bars is similar to RETAIL BULLION… LOL.
I was also surprised to hear that Cloud Hard Assets was only charging $6.50 over spot to purchase Silver Eagles. I have been making comparisons of some of the well-known online precious metals dealers Silver Eagles BUY & SELL prices, and have now included the price from CLOUD HARD ASSETS which I sponsor on this website:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
MASSIVE SURGE IN PHYSICAL SILVER BUYING: Totally Distorted & Broken Markets
MASSIVE SURGE IN PHYSICAL SILVER BUYING: Totally Distorted & Broken Markets
The world economic and financial markets have entered into a crippling cannibalization of the system in which few are prepared. While the politicians, financial analysts, and media are providing optimistic forecasts for the future, they continue to underestimate the seriousness of the global contagion. Thus, after a week or two, these forecasts will be revised lower (once again) to reflect a more gloomy, negative and more realistic outlook.
So, in another a few weeks, the world as it pertains to this contagion will look a lot worse than it does today. I’d imagine the Dow Jones Index will likely shed another 5-8,000+ points during this period. Also, the global supply chain disruptions will kick into high gear as month-long lockdowns in various countries finally impact manufacturers and retailers across the world.
I haven’t put out too many new updates and articles over the past few weeks. Rather, I decided to take a step back to research and watch as this global contagion continued to unfold. However, I will be putting out more updates, videos, and articles over the next month as I believe most people are still unprepared for what’s coming.
Although, I have been a bit busy on Twitter recently. You can follow my TWEETS and REPLIES on Twitter here: SRSRocco Report Twitter Feed. When I posted this Tweet on March 15th, the price of oil was $31. I stated that the price would likely fall to $29 the next day… and it did. The relevant sentence in the tweet below is… WE DON’T COME BACK FROM THIS ONE.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Demand For Physical Precious Metals Surge Due To Fears About Disruptions In The Global Supply Chain
Demand For Physical Precious Metals Surge Due To Fears About Disruptions In The Global Supply Chain
According to a precious metals dealer I spoke with, the world out on the street is that demand for gold and silver has recently surged due to investor concerns about a disruption to the Global Supply Chain. We are already seeing a massive slowdown in China’s oil demand as official reports show a 20% reduction in oil consumption.
However, I believe China’s oil demand is much lower than the 20% figure reported by Bloomberg and reposted by Gulfnews.com on Feb. 3rd:
According to the article, China’s total oil demand is approximately 14 million barrels per day (mbd). The IEA, International Energy Agency, in their January 2020 OMR Report reported that China’s total oil demand would reach 14,046,000 mbd in 2020. Using the IEA’s data, here is China’s total oil consumption from 2017-2019, including the forecast for 2020, and the significant drop in demand in February:
The Bloomberg article stated that China’s total oil demand was down approximately 3 mbd by early February. Again, the article was published on Feb. 2nd. For China to cut 20% of its oil consumption… THAT’S A BIG DEAL. But, I think it’s much worse than that. According to the next two charts, one is taken from a new article on Gail Tverberg’s Ourfiniteworld.com website, and the other is from Capital Economics.
The first chart from CapitalEconomics.com shows a huge reduction in China’s Daily Passenger Traffic, including road, railway, freight, and ship:
The RED ARROW indicates when Bloomberg reported the 3 mbd decline in China’s total oil demand. Who knows at what date Bloomberg used to base their figure on 3 mbd drop in oil consumption, but this chart shows that total China daily traffic is down about 80% since January if we go by the right-hand scale. Thus, this chart reveals that China’s daily traffic flow has been down approximately 80% for more than two weeks.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Gold Will Go To $2,500 Per Ounce” In The Next One to Three Years – Charles Nenner
“Gold Will Go To $2,500 Per Ounce” In The Next One to Three Years – Charles Nenner
◆ “Gold will go to $2,500 per ounce” renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner stands by his prediction of record gold prices.
◆ “Cycles show me that gold and silver will be going up for a couple of years. I take profits in a short term top, but … I am in for the long term”... as “they will go much, much higher.”
◆ How much higher could gold go in the longer term? “I made the calculation that if the system breaks down and we have to go back to the gold standard, then gold would be around $60,000 per ounce” according to Nenner
◆ “The problem is it can go to $1,890 and then suddenly to $1,470, and they get afraid and sell out and no more long term investment. . . . If you are strong enough, let it go to $2,500, but never get weak even if it goes down. Be a long term investor. . . .$2,500 gold could take three years.”
◆ The cycle says we are at the top in stocks globally and while stocks could go 3% or 4% higher or we could have a 40% or 50% correction or indeed a crash
Watch interview here
