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China’s Minsky Moment
CHINA’S MINSKY MOMENT Sometimes you have to love the naivety of the markets. At this week’s Communist Party Congress meeting in Beijing, the governor of the PBoC (People’s Bank of China) said the following; “If we are too optimistic when things go smoothly, tensions build up, which could lead to a sharp correction, what we […]
The Sum of All Fears…..and a few related charts……
The Sum of All Fears…..and a few related charts…… Today, I’d like to take some time to revisit a couple of related topics that we first started discussing a few years ago. I am, of course, referring to the burgeoning increases in China’s Debt levels, Shadow Bank Assets (loans) and M2, along with a high-level […]
Kyle Bass: China’s $40 Trillion Banking System Has “Largest Imbalances I’ve Ever Seen”
Kyle Bass: China’s $40 Trillion Banking System Has “Largest Imbalances I’ve Ever Seen” Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital has been having a rough year thanks to its widely publicized bet against China’s currency, which has more than reversed its 2016 decline – its largest annual drop since 1994 – as the People’s Bank of China has […]
PBoC Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data
PBoC Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data In a recent speech at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang reassured his audience on the level of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Chinese banking sector. It had, he said, “pretty much stabilized after a long period of climbing. That’s a good development […]
China Losing Control? PBOC Imposes New Yuan Outflow Limits For First Time In Two Decades
China Losing Control? PBOC Imposes New Yuan Outflow Limits For First Time In Two Decades Late last week, we reported that in its latest push to limit and/or halt capital outflows, China unveiled new capital controls meant to stem further capital flight disguised as outbound M&A by clamping down with tighter controls on Chinese companies seeking to […]
The New Middle Kingdom Of Concrete And The Red Depression Ahead
The New Middle Kingdom Of Concrete And The Red Depression Ahead No wonder the Red Ponzi consumed more cement during three years (2011-2013) than did the US during the entire twentieth century. Enabled by an endless $30 trillion flow of credit from its state controlled banking apparatus and its shadow banking affiliates, China went berserk building factories, warehouses, ports, office towers, […]
Are Asian Central Bankers Even Crazier Than Our Own?
Are Asian Central Bankers Even Crazier Than Our Own? That the world’s central bankers get a lot of things wrong, deliberately or not, and have done so for years now, is nothing new. But that they do things that result in the exact opposite of what they ostensibly aim for, and predictably so, perhaps is. […]
China’s Economy Even Worse than Suspected?
China’s Economy Even Worse than Suspected? It’s always good to have a plan. So China has a new five-year plan, its 13th. And the plan is to dial down China’s formerly white-hot economy to a target of “medium-high economic growth” for the five years starting in 2016. “The country will promote greater sophistication in its […]
Confirmation: China As Brazil
Confirmation: China As Brazil There is always some chicken and egg to any financial irregularity; as in does a crisis cause a panic or is it the panic that causes the crisis? Though the evidence of the past eight years is decidedly on the side of the irregularity, central banks continue to press as if […]
Breaking: China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In Play
Breaking: China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In Play Just two days ago, we noted that according to Citi’s Willem Buiter, there would be “Imminent Easing From Central Banks Of China, Australia, Japan And Europe.” Fast forward 48 hours when he is […]
Rolling Boulders Uphill
Rolling Boulders Uphill As symbols of futility go, that of Sisyphus takes some beating. In Greek mythology, Sisyphus was captured by the gods after having freed humanity from Death. They punished him, of course: he would spend the rest of his days pushing a boulder up to the top of a mountain. Just when he […]
China’s Central Bank Chief Admits “The Bubble Has Burst”
China’s Central Bank Chief Admits “The Bubble Has Burst” In a stunningly honest admission from a member of the elite, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, exclaimed multiple times this week to his G-20 colleagues that a bubble in his country had “burst.”While this will come as no surprise to any rational-minded onlooker, the fact […]
How China Cornered The Fed With Its “Worst Case” Capital Outflow Countdown
How China Cornered The Fed With Its “Worst Case” Capital Outflow Countdown Last week, in “What China’s Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse,” we took a look at the potential size of the RMB carry trade, noting that according to BofAML, the unwind could, in the worst case scenario, be somewhere on the […]
Citigroup Chief Economist Thinks Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World Now
Citigroup Chief Economist Thinks Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World Now Having recently explained (in great detail) why QE4 (and 5, 6 & 7) were inevitable (despite the protestations of all central planners, except for perhaps Kocharlakota – who never met an economy he didn’t want to throw free money at), we found it fascinating […]
Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks
Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks Last weekend, we explained why it really all comes down to the death of the petrodollar. China’s transition to a new currency regime was supposed to represent a move towards a greater role for the market in determining the exchange rate for the yuan. […]
