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Recession Ahead: An Overview of Our Predicament
Recession Ahead: An Overview of Our Predicament Many people have the impression that recessions come from financial missteps, such as the US subprime loan fiasco. If energy is involved at all, the problem comes from high oil prices as supply becomes inadequate to meet demand. The real situation is different. We already seem to be on […]
Do the World’s Energy Policies Make Sense?
Do the World’s Energy Policies Make Sense? The world today has a myriad of energy policies. One of them seems to be to encourage renewables, especially wind and solar. Another seems to be to encourage electric cars. A third seems to be to try to move away from fossil fuels. Countries in Europe and elsewhere have […]
Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work
Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work The reasons why the Green New Deal won’t really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. [1] None of the new […]
Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019
Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019 Many people are concerned that we have an oil problem. Or they are concerned about recession and the need to lower interest rates. As I see the situation, we have a problem of a networked economy that is not functioning well. A big part of this problem is energy-related. […]
Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’
Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’ We often hear the statement, “When oil supply is lower, oil prices will rise because of scarcity.” Now, we are getting to see firsthand whether oil prices really do rise, as oil supplies become more scarce. Figure 1 shows that world oil supply hit a peak in November 2018 […]
Rethinking Renewable Mandates
Rethinking Renewable Mandates Powering the world’s economy with wind, water and solar, and perhaps a little wood sounds like a good idea until a person looks at the details. The economy can use small amounts of wind, water and solar, but adding these types of energy in large quantities is not necessarily beneficial to the system. […]
Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems
Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems Economists tell us that within the economy there is a lot of substitutability, and they are correct. However, there are a couple of not-so-minor details that they overlook: There is no substitute for energy. It is possible to harness energy from another source, or to make a particular object […]
Why it (sort of) makes sense for the US to impose tariffs
Why it (sort of) makes sense for the US to impose tariffs Nearly everyone wonders, “Why is Donald Trump crazy enough to impose tariffs on imports from other countries? How could this possibly make sense?” As long as the world economy is growing rapidly, it makes sense for countries to cooperate with each other. With the […]
The climate change story is half true
The climate change story is half true The climate change story is true is some respects: The climate is indeed changing. And CO2 emissions do seem to affect climate. Burning fossil fuels does indeed make a difference in CO2 levels. The problem I have with the climate change story is that it paints a totally inaccurate […]
The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels
The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, […]
A Different View of Venezuela’s Energy Problems
A Different View of Venezuela’s Energy Problems It would be easy to write a story about Venezuela’s energy problems and, in it, focus on the corruption and mismanagement that have taken place. This would make it look like Venezuela’s problems were different from everyone else’s. Taking this approach, it would be easy to argue that the […]
Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?
Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal? Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall […]
How the Peak Oil story could be “close,” but not quite right
How the Peak Oil story could be “close,” but not quite right A few years ago, especially in the 2005-2008 period, many people were concerned that the oil supply would run out. They were concerned about high oil prices and a possible need for rationing. The story was often called “Peak Oil.” Peak Oil theorists have also […]
2019: World Economy Is Reaching Growth Limits; Expect Low Oil Prices, Financial Turbulence
2019: World Economy Is Reaching Growth Limits; Expect Low Oil Prices, Financial Turbulence Financial markets have been behaving in a very turbulent manner in the last couple of months. The issue, as I see it, is that the world economy is gradually changing from a growth mode to a mode of shrinkage. This is something like […]
Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems
Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems Almost everyone seems to believe that our energy problems are primarily oil-related. Electricity will save us. I recently gave a talk to a group of IEEE electricity researchers (primarily engineers) about the current energy situation and how welcoming it is for new technologies. Needless to say, this group did […]
