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The livelihoods of millions have already been sacrificed

After a decade of financial austerity, is Europe now on the brink of a new age of energy austerity? The city of Hanover has recently introduced strict energy-saving rules that include cutting off the hot water in public buildings, swimming pools, sports halls and gyms, banning mobile air conditioners, fan heaters or radiators, switching off public fountains, and stopping illuminating major buildings such as the town hall at night.

Meanwhile, several countries across Europe are considering dimming or switching off public lights, and even adopting “energy curfews”, with early closures for businesses and public offices. And more drastic measures are under consideration — including gas rationing for energy-intensive industries such as steel and agriculture.

These measures are part of an EU-wide Gas Demand Reduction Plan, ominously titled Save Gas for a Safe Winter, to reduce gas use in Europe by 15% until next spring. Among the proposals is a provision that officials in Brussels impose fines for non-compliance if they decide the crisis is escalating dangerously.

All of this comes amid growing fears that dwindling Russian gas supplies may plunge Europe into an energy crisis this winter. Overall, Russian gas exports to the EU are at about a third of last year’s levels, falling steadily since the invasion of Ukraine. While several European countries have been reducing their Russian gas imports, Russia itself has been reducing gas flows to Europe through Nord Stream 1, the continent’s biggest pipeline, citing mainly technical issues. Just the other day, citing equipment repair, Russia announced yet another reduction in the amount of natural gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, which is now operating at only 20% capacity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe hypnotized into war economy

August 1, 2022

Europe hypnotized into war economy

Thirty two years ago Germans enthusiastically took down the Berlin wall. Now, captured by cunning Anglo-Saxon global elites, Germans are helping other European “useful idiots” to erect a much higher and thicker wall to cut themselves off from Russia leading them into a war economy. But as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has warned… “the approach has clearly failed — sanctions have backfired — and our car now has 4 four flat tires” … Question: vehicles don´t carry more than 2 spare tires on them, do they? So, one quick and innocent way to explain such unfathomable European miscalculation is to assume the EU leadership is immersed in a deep hypnotic trance and just blindly following US-UK instructions under Stoltenberg-Johnson war-mongering policies. Per “The Telegraph” Ref #1 https://www.rt.com/news/559682-johnson-uk-nato-ukriaine Ref #2 https://www.rt.com/news/559785-orban-eu-gas-war-economy/

suicidal non-supply

The supply lines that up to 2022 successfully linked Europe and Russia took decades of very hard work to develop. This now means that almost all of such over-abundant contracts necessarily have no effective substitute because (a) no other vendors have such high quality at low price plus decades of vetting and proven experience + (b) the un-replaceable short freight distance and shipping time from nearby Russia. So, by definition, both (a) + (b) mean that today no equivalent supply lines could ever be found no matter how much Europe tried simply because it would be either too soon or too far …and always too hard and too pricey. So short cuts will be taken and corners rounded-off…. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. The impact of the above cannot be overstated though as the now-broken Euro-Russian supply lines were essential for the Just-In-Time strategy that Europe and world markets still require and cannot wait years to develop and iron out. Logistics 101: proven experience and performance with excellent price plus quick delivery from nearby sources cannot be substituted fast enough, or possibly ever…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why The EU Could End Within A Year

July 31, 2022

Why The EU Could End Within A Year

Germany, which has been high-and-mighty within the European Union and has imposed austerity against weaker European economies such as in Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal, is now demanding that other EU member nations bail Germans out of what will soon inevitably be an energy-emergency that results from Germany’s having complied with America’s demand to not only join with America’s sanctions against Russia, but to even terminate Germany’s Nord Stream 2 Russian gas pipeline that was supposed to be increasing — instead of (as now will be the case) decreasing — Russia’s natural-gas supplies to Europe. Germany was, until recently, the industrial motor of the EU, and therefore has the most to lose from reduced and far costlier energy-supplies; but this has now happened, and will escalate in the coming winter. As those energy supplies get reduced, energy prices will rise, then soar, and Germany’s economy will get crushed. Germany’s leaders (like in the other EU nations) complied with the American anti-Russia sanctions demands (which are based on faked ‘information’); and, as a result, the German public will soon be freezing, even while Germany will be spending astronomically higher prices for energy than it had previously been paying. The plunging energy supplies from Russia will be replaced by increased supplies from other countries (including America) whose energy is far costlier than Russia’s; and only a small fraction of those reduced supplies from Russia will be able to be replaced at all. Something will have to give, probably the EU itself, because the resultant rapidly escalating internal hostilities between EU nations — especially between Germany and the nations that it now expects to bail it out of this crisis — could blow the EU itself irrevocably apart.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We Are Going To See Energy Prices Go Absolutely Nuts This Winter Just As We Plunge Into A Horrifying Global Economic Crisis

July 30, 2022

We Are Going To See Energy Prices Go Absolutely Nuts This Winter Just As We Plunge Into A Horrifying Global Economic Crisis

How would you feel if your power bill went up by 50 percent this winter? How about 100 percent? Unfortunately, these kinds of price increases are already being announced. The world was heading into a major energy crisis even before the war in Ukraine started, and now that conflict threatens to create an extremely severe energy crunch that would have been unimaginable just a couple of years ago. If some sort of a miracle doesn’t happen, it is going to be a really, really cold winter for countless people in the western world.

The Russians have been trying to use energy as leverage, and on Monday they announced that the amount of natural gas flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be reduced “to just 20% of its capacity”…

The Biden administration is working furiously behind the scenes to keep European allies united against Russia as Moscow further cuts its energy supplies to the European Union, prompting panic on both sides of the Atlantic over potentially severe gas shortages heading into winter, US officials say.

On Monday, Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom said it would cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany in half, to just 20% of its capacity. A US official said the move was retaliation for western sanctions, and that it put the West in “unchartered territory” when it comes to whether Europe will have enough gas to get through the winter.

In essence, Vladimir Putin is “turning the screws”, and it may just be a matter of time before he cuts off the gas completely.

The Europeans never should have allowed themselves to become so dependent on Russian energy, and now a major crisis is staring them in the face.

Last Wednesday, a modest rationing plan for the member states of the EU was introduced…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EU Prepares Public For Winter Gas Siege

July 28, 2022

EU Prepares Public For Winter Gas Siege

European Union policymakers have started to prepare the public for siege conditions this winter if gas supplies from Russia are completely cut, an effort to demonstrate diplomatic resolve as well as avoid panic later in the year.

In recent weeks, officials from Germany and other EU member states have begun to talk openly and urgently about the need for immediate reductions in consumption in advance of the peak winter heating season.

They have also started to plan publicly for compulsory allocation, including rationing and prioritization among industrial users, as well as sharing among member states in the event there is not enough gas to supply everyone.

The stated reason is to accelerate the accumulation of inventories over the remainder of the summer to ensure European countries enter the winter with the highest possible inventories.

In reality, inventories are rising relatively rapidly and are already above the long-term seasonal average in most member states and across the region as a whole.

Inventories across the EU and the United Kingdom (EU28) stood at 751 terawatt-hours (TWh) on July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 698 TWh.

EU28 stocks were rising at a rate of 5.11 TWh per day in the seven days to July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 4.61 TWh.

In Germany, the largest stock holder, inventories of 161 TWh were above the long-term average of 145 TWh, and rising at 0.6 TWh per day, compared with a long-term average of 0.72 TWh per day.

On current trends, the European Union as a whole, and Germany in particular, are already likely to enter the winter with above average levels of gas in storage.

The problem is that it will not be enough if pipeline supplies from Russia are cut completely.

EU storage is designed to cope with seasonal swings in consumption not to withstand a war-like strategic blockade.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We Are Going To See Energy Prices Go Absolutely Nuts This Winter Just As We Plunge Into A Horrifying Global Economic Crisis

July 27, 2022

We Are Going To See Energy Prices Go Absolutely Nuts This Winter Just As We Plunge Into A Horrifying Global Economic Crisis

The Biden administration is working furiously behind the scenes to keep European allies united against Russia as Moscow further cuts its energy supplies to the European Union, prompting panic on both sides of the Atlantic over potentially severe gas shortages heading into winter, US officials say.

On Monday, Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom said it would cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany in half, to just 20% of its capacity. A US official said the move was retaliation for western sanctions, and that it put the West in “unchartered territory” when it comes to whether Europe will have enough gas to get through the winter.

In essence, Vladimir Putin is “turning the screws”, and it may just be a matter of time before he cuts off the gas completely.

The Europeans never should have allowed themselves to become so dependent on Russian energy, and now a major crisis is staring them in the face.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

As Fuel Prices Poised to TRIPLE, EU Mulls Rationing Gas Across Bloc Monday

July 20, 2022

As Fuel Prices Poised to TRIPLE, EU Mulls Rationing Gas Across Bloc Monday

The European Union (EU) is going down in flames as its fuel taps from Russia run dry.

Issues related to the war in Ukraine have resulted in no more gas flowing through the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) pipeline and soon-to-be tripled gas prices across Europe.

To avoid what will inevitably become a widespread catastrophe for the European economy, EU officials are reportedly discussing fuel rationing as the next step in their standoff against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who quite frankly appears to be winning on every front.

Should the NS1 pipeline never get turned back on due to issues with a key engine turbine component that is still stuck in Canada due to sanctions, Western Europe faces a total loss of energy in the coming months.

Up until now, the public was simply hearing about these problems on the news. Now, however, the consequences of failed political leadership are turning into sky-high gas prices and now the potential for forced rationing.

A recent poll found that more than 60 percent of German citizens fear there will not be enough gas to go around this winter, especially since some people will be stocking up and hoarding what they can before prices triple come 2023.

Germans are starting “to sweat” as they realize there will be no gas available for heat this winter

Draft EU measures propose limiting the heating of public and commercial buildings to 19 degrees Celsius, or around 66 degrees Fahrenheit, which is cold enough to require the use of extra layers of clothing indoors.

Private households are also being encouraged to lower their thermostats by one degree, a proposal that was also made back in February right after Russia invaded Ukraine.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gazprom Reportedly Declares Force Majeure, Will Halt Gas Flows To Germany Indefinitely

July 18, 2022

Gazprom Reportedly Declares Force Majeure, Will Halt Gas Flows To Germany Indefinitely

Already days before the July 22 European “Doomsday” when the scheduled Russian 10-day maintenance of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany is slated to end – but which was thrown into deep doubt given Gazprom recently said it can no longer guarantee its “good functioning” due to crucial turbines being previously held up in Canada related to sanctions – the Russian energy giant has declared Force Majeure to one major European customer.

Simply put, Gazprom declared extraordinary and extreme circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to this customer, thus the gas will stop flowing indefinitely, as Reuters reports in a breaking development Monday, “Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer starting June 14, according to the letter seen by Reuters.”

The letter invoked “extraordinary” circumstances outside the company’s control, Reuters continues, citing a source saying the customer in question is Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

As we’ve been detailing, German authorities have of late taken unprecedented steps in anticipation of an enduring Russian gas halt, essentially dimming the lights across the country – which has included everything from limiting hot water, to shutting down swimming pools, to quite literally dimming city street lights as it entered “alarm” stage over dwindling supply.

It seems this letter declaring its legal release from supply obligations going back to June 14 is in preparation for definitive action on July 22, namely that the pipeline’s operations are likely to remain suspended.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank Now Modeling German Households Chopping Wood To Keep Warm This Winter

July 15, 2022

Deutsche Bank Now Modeling German Households Chopping Wood To Keep Warm This Winter

Yesterday we reported that just in case the world didn’t have enough things to worry about, it is now also petrified about Europe’s potential “doomsday” on July 22 when Putin will decide the fate of the continent: if he resumes gas flows along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which is currently undergoing ten-day maintenance, things will be back to normal(ish). If not, this is the scenario contemplated by Wall Street strategists: “European stocks plunging 20%. Junk credit spreads widening past 2020 crisis levels. The euro sinking to just 90 cents, before a full-blown recession slams the world’s 2nd biggest economy.”

Then overnight, in a note from Deutsche Bank senior economist Eric Heymann (available to pro subscribers), the largest German lender laid out the three most likely scenarios for what the post-maintenance period could look like. As Heymann writes, “we developed three scenarios on how Russian gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream 1 as well as the transition point Waidhaus might evolve over the next few months.”

Scenario 1: Status quo ante. Here, DB assumes that Russian gas deliveries return to the level we had seen in the weeks before the current maintenance period of Nord Stream 1, i.e. 60% below the level at the end of May.
Scenario 2: Balanced on a knife-edge. Here, the bank assumes another halving of Russian gas supplies via both pipelines. That would correspond to only 20% of Russian gas supplies seen until May 2022 (this scenario was validated today as described in “Gazprom Casts Doubt On Reopening Nord Stream Even As Canada Grants Sanctions Waiver For Stranded Turbines“).
Scenario 3: This is the downside case: welcome to a winter of gas rationing. In a third scenario DB assumes that Russia completely turns off the gas taps to Germany after the maintenance period. That also includes supplies via Waidhaus over the next few months…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA: Europe Will Have To Cut Gas Usage By Nearly One-Third

June 30, 2022

IEA: Europe Will Have To Cut Gas Usage By Nearly One-Third

In the first quarter of next year, the countries of the European Union will have to cut their usage of natural gas by up to 30% in preparation for a complete stoppage of Russian gas flows, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA Director Fatih Birol on Tuesday said that “a complete cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Europe could result in storage fill levels being well below average ahead of the winter, leaving the EU in a very vulnerable position.”

“In the current context, I wouldn’t exclude a complete cut-off of gas exports to Europe from Russia,” he stated.

Citing technical issues related to the Nord Stream pipeline, Russia earlier in June cut flows of gas to Germany by 60%.

Plans to boost natural gas storage filling in Europe would not withstand a full Russian cut-off if it were to happen between now and the fourth quarter of this year.

By the first of November, the European Union should have its gas storage filled to 90%; however, a complete Russian cut-off would reduce that significantly, leading to another surge in natural gas prices, which have already tripled year-on-year, according to Bloomberg, citing figures from the ICE Endex.

European natural gas prices remained steady from Monday to Tuesday, in part due to a resumption of the flow of Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline, which was undergoing maintenance. The pipeline has a 31.5-billion-cubic-meter capacity, Bloomberg reports.

On Tuesday, Dutch front-month gas futures dropped 0.2% at the close.

Also steadying natural gas prices in Europe on Tuesday were new estimations for demand, which could see a drop due to sunnier weather that can better support solar energy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Germany Fears Russia Could Shut Nord Stream 1 Within Weeks

June 25, 2022

Germany Fears Russia Could Shut Nord Stream 1 Within Weeks

The European Union has this week accused Russia of planning “rogue moves” regarding lowering natural gas flows to Europe, or in other words continuing to ‘weaponize’ its energy, to which the Kremlin has consistently responded with variations of ‘our gas, our rules’.

This after Moscow has reduced Nord Stream 1 gas flows by 40% last week while citing technical issues, leading to a four- to sixfold rise in market prices, based on German energy officials. However, Berlin isn’t buying that needed maintenance on the key pipeline is all that’s happening here, instead seeing in it an underhanded Russian ploy to ramp up the pressure on Europe, giving way to fears that the saga could end in Russia halting its pipeline altogether.

“Gas is now a scarce commodity in Germany,” economy minister Robert Habeck said at a Thursday press conference while warning that his country is now approaching crisis supply levels which could see authorities turn to gas rationing.

Habeck confirmed that the last days have seen a “significant deterioration of the gas supply situation” – following Gazprom’s Nord Stream 1 also having to now undergo what the Russian energy company has scheduled as “annual maintenance” for a period of ten days, from July 11 to July 21.

Habeck was asked in an interview this week with German broadcaster ZDF about the negative scenario possibility of Russia artificially extending the repair and maintenance period: “I’d be lying if I said I’m ruling it out. In fact, Putin has gradually reduced the amount of gas more and more,” he responded.

According to the German language publication, the economy minister bluntly spelled out that Putin is trying to use energy to drive a wedge among European allies:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IEA: Current Energy Crisis Is “Much Bigger” Than 1970s Oil Crunch

June 1, 2022

IEA: Current Energy Crisis Is “Much Bigger” Than 1970s Oil Crunch

IEA Chief Birol: The world faces a “much bigger” energy crisis than the one of the 1970s.
Back in the 1970s, the crisis was just about oil.
Birol: The world, especially Europe, could face a summer of shortages of gasoline, fuel, and jet fuel.

The world faces a “much bigger” energy crisis than the one of the 1970s, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, told German daily Der Spiegel in an interview published on Tuesday.

“Back then it was just about oil,” Birol told the news outlet. “Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously,” said the head of the international agency created after the 1970s shock of the Arab oil embargo.

The energy crisis started in the autumn of last year, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine made it much worse as the markets fear disruption to energy supply out of Russia, while Western governments are imposing increasingly restrictive sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

The EU agreed late on Monday to ban most of the imports of Russian oil, leaving pipeline supply exempted from the embargo, for now. This will further tighten already tight crude and product markets.

The world, especially Europe, could face a summer of shortages of gasoline, fuel, and jet fuel, the IEA’s Birol told Der Spiegel.

Fuel demand is set to rise as the main holiday season in Europe and the United States begins, Birol added.

Upended crude oil flows add to reduced global refinery capacity resulting in low inventories of products, including in the United States.

Refinery capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic.

Putin: Oil Sanctions Will Be Europe’s “Economic Suicide” On Orders From “American Overlords”

May 18, 2022

Putin: Oil Sanctions Will Be Europe’s “Economic Suicide” On Orders From “American Overlords”

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that EU countries are committing “economic suicide” by refusing Russian energy resources amid a push to impose an oil embargo, but which has been thus far blocked by Russian energy-dependent Hungary and a handful of others.

As quoted in RIA Novosti, Putin described that the oil sector is busy undergoing a “tectonic shift” which will only be made worse by “ill-thought-out” sanctions by the West. The address was given virtually to an energy conference of the country’s industry heads.

“Changes in the oil market are tectonic in nature and doing business as usual, according to the old model, seems unlikely,” he said. “In the new conditions, it is important not only to extract oil, but also to build the entire vertical chain leading to the final consumer.”

*Putin signs a pipeline in 2011. AFP via Getty*

He called out the current EU-US trajectory of seeking to inflict maximum punishment on Moscow as a strategy ensuring higher energy prices and higher inflation. That’s when he observed:

“Of course, such an economic suicide is a domestic affair of the European countries,” based on the AFP translation.

At the same time, Putin additionally pointed out, Europe’s “chaotic actions” would eventually serve to boost oil and gas revenues for Moscow, also as Russia diverts energy supplies to “friendly” countries. He urged Russian industry authorities to be more proactive in leveraging the situation for the nation’s benefit.

Putin described a scenario of Europe feeling the brunt of the crisis worst, according to state media:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cutting Off Russian Gas Would Be “Catastrophic”, German Industry President Warns

May 17, 2022

Cutting Off Russian Gas Would Be “Catastrophic”, German Industry President Warns

As we detailed yesterday, almost two months after Europe rushed to declare it would impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine with no regard for how such sanctions would boomerang and cripple its own economies, the old continent which was and still remains hostage to Russian energy exports, is finally grasping the underlying math which was all too clear to Vladimir Putin long ago.

The European Union’s executive arm said yesterday that the currency bloc’s economy would expand about 0.2% this year, with inflation topping 9%, as governments struggled to replace the imports.

This severe stagflationary scenario is highlighted by Siegfried Russwurm, president of the Germany’s biggest industry association BDI, warning that the cessation of Russian gas deliveries would have a dire effect on the German economy.

“The consequences of cutting off Russian gas supplies would be catastrophic,” he told tabloid Bild am Sonntag in an interview published at the weekend.

Russwurm added that cutting off Russian gas would deprive businesses of fuel in Germany, forcing businesses to close production lines.

“In this situation many companies will be completely cut off gas supplies. In many cases, affected businesses will be forced to stop production, some businesses may never be able to start again,” he warned.

Europe’s “sudden realization” of just how destructive pushing through with full-blown sanctions will be, somewhat similar to that of Elon Musk who “learned” about the millions in Twitter spam accounts only after bidding $44 billion – is why over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that the European Union is set to fully water down its so-called sanctions and to offer gas importers a solution to avoid a breach of sanctions when buying fuel from Russia while satisfying President Vladimir Putin’s demands over payment in rubles.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Real Reason Behind the EU’s Drive to Embargo Russian Oil

May 14, 2022

The Real Reason Behind the EU’s Drive to Embargo Russian Oil

This week the European Union is expected to announce a complete import ban on Russian oil. Hungary, in its first real act of defiance, is threatening to veto this; Germany, after some hemming and hawing, has finally decided it can survive such a ban.

Assuming Hungary’s objections are eventually overcome, at first blush this looks like yet another energy “own goal” by the people obsessed with soccer. The U.S. has already issued this ban.

Because European industry is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas, the conventional wisdom is that the EU Commission is just petulant and incompetent.

Are they petulant? Yes. Incompetent? Possibly? But only if you think in conventional terms of doing the right thing for their people. What is clear to any serious observer of EU politics is that they are not interested in what their people have to say or want.

Theirs is an agenda which will brook no opposition, even if it means destroying its own economy to bring a rival to its knees.

That said, I sincerely doubt there will be a “buyers embargo” on natural gas because there is no viable substitute for it.

Hungary is using the need for unanimous consent within the European Council to block any ‘gas ban’ in any new economic sanctions package. There are at least three other countries which are happy Hungary is willing to suffer Brussels’ wrath.

But banning Russian oil, on the other hand, is different.

So, it is interesting that Hungary would do this, given they import no oil from Russia. {Ed. this is wrong, Hungary imports 65% of its oil through the Druzhba pipeline} This veto was predicted by me the morning after the Hungarians overwhelmingly rejected George Soros’s anti-Viktor Orban coalition and handed it an ignominious defeat.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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