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“Calm Reigns” Everywhere As Greece Inches Closer To Default, China Crashes
“Calm Reigns” Everywhere As Greece Inches Closer To Default, China Crashes
In what is perhaps the most glaring instance of central bank intervention yet,Reuters today captured the market mood as follows: “Calm ruled Europe’s stock and currency markets on Friday as Greece inched closer to a default later this month….the euro was down just 0.3 percent against the dollar and major European stock markets gained in early trade.” Why is Europe (and by extension US futures) so desperate to show green today even with a Greek default imminent? The same reason we explained back in January when we said the ECB and the Fed would do everything in their power to eliminate all Greek “negotiating” leverage which from day one was the attempt to create market contagion from Grexit. Unfortunately for Greece, the ECB’s QE intervened and blew a hole right through its plans, and now, it finds that not only do markets not care about the Greek contagion about which even Janet Yellen warned, but in the US hit all time highs!
The inverse, however, is certainly not true as ECB “sources” leak each and every day just how bad the Greek bank run is, and promptly put this information into the public domain in hopes of accelerating the already terminal bank run which unless halted will lead to capital controls and ultimately the fall of the Tsipras regime: precisely what the Troika has been after all along, as we also explained all the wayback in February. Sure enough, just a few hours ago Reuters “sources” reportedthat after €2 billion exited the Greek financial system in the first three days of the week, on Thursday the outflow hit what may have been a record €1 billion in one day.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Economic Depression In Greece Deepens As Tsipras Prepares To Deliver ‘The Great No’
The Economic Depression In Greece Deepens As Tsipras Prepares To Deliver ‘The Great No’
As Greece plunges even deeper into economic chaos, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says that his government is prepared to respond to the demands of the EU and the IMF with “the great no” and that his party will accept responsibility for whatever consequences follow. Despite years of intervention from the rest of Europe, Greece is a bigger economic mess today than ever. Greek GDP has shrunk by 26 percent since 2008, the national debt to GDP ratio in Greece is up to a staggering 175 percent, and the unemployment rate is up above 25 percent. Greek stocks are crashing and Greek bond yields are shooting into the stratosphere. Meanwhile, the banking system is essentially on life support at this point. 400 million euros were pulled out of Greek banks on Monday alone. No matter what happens in the coming days, many believe that it is now only a matter of time before capital controls like we saw in Cyprus are imposed.
Over the past several months, there have been endless high level meetings over in Europe regarding this Greek crisis, but none of them have fixed anything. And even Jeroen Dijsselbloem admits that the odds of anything being accomplished during the meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Thursday is “very small”…
Some officials believe Thursday’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers will be perhaps the last chance to stop Greece sliding into default and towards leaving the euro.
However the president of the so-called Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said the chance of an accord was “very small”.
And it is certainly not just Dijsselbloem that feels this way. At this point pretty much everyone is resigned to the fact that there is not going to be a deal any time soon. The following comes from Reuters…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Is Telling Lies A Democratic Right?
Is Telling Lies A Democratic Right?
While I’m on the Greece topic again today, I can’t help but pointing out some of the changes in tone I’ve noticed in the press recently, shifting towards outright oftentimes vicious if not ridiculous antagonism vs Greece. Remember, there is an agenda, there are pre-cooked narratives galore, and these people are not your friends.
I won’t be able to cover all the things I would like to right now, let’s start with just the one. And I’m warning you: it might get philosophical.
This is from Marc Champion for Bloomberg yesterday:
Tsipras Isn’t on the Side of Democracy
Recently, I asked whether the Greek government actually wants to strike a deal on its debt, or if its increasingly erratic approach to negotiationsmight reflect a determination to ensure that Greeks blame their creditors, not their government, for a coming meltdown. [..] Here’s what Tsipras saidin a statement about the abortive talks and current bailout:
“One can only suspect political motives behind the fact that the institutions insist on further pension cuts, despite five years of pillaging via the memoranda. The Greek government has been negotiating with a specific plan and documented proposals. We will wait patiently till the institutions adhere to realism.
Those who consider our sincere wish for a solution as well as our efforts to bridge the gap as a sign of weakness, should have in mind the following: We are not only carrying a historical past underlined with struggles. We are carrying our people’s dignity as well as the aspirations of all Europeans. We cannot ignore this responsibility. It is not a matter of ideological stubbornness. It has to do with democracy.”
Tsipras’s proposition that he’s championing the hope of downtrodden masses across Europe is nonsense. Germans may be wrong and unfair to prefer losing the loans they made Greece to taking a haircut, but they have a democratic right to believe they’re correct.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Europe Gives Greece 24 Hours To Comply; Germany Draws Up Capital Control Plans
Europe Gives Greece 24 Hours To Comply; Germany Draws Up Capital Control Plans
EU officials turned up the heat on Athens Thursday after the IMF withdrew its team and sent its lead negotiators back to Washington.
In what can only be described as a half-hearted effort, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras submitted two three-page proposals earlier this week that were dismissed by creditors as “not serious.” We suggested that perhaps that was intentional as Tsipras, having bought Greece some time by opting for the “Zambian” IMF payment bundle, is simply keeping up appearances while the real negotiating is going on behind the scenes with Syriza party hardliners who Tsipras desperately needs to support any proposal before it goes to parliament in order to avoid what could quickly deteriorate into a political and social crisis.
One has to believe that Brussels understands this, but it could very well be that between Tsipras’ scathing op-ed (published two Sundays ago) and the PM’s fiery speech to parliament last Friday, creditors are becoming concerned that Tsipras might actually be starting to believe that he can effectively blackmail the EMU by threatening to prove, once and for all, that the currency bloc is in fact dissoluble no matter what manner of protestations one might hear in polite company.
So, with the IMF having thrown in the towel, and with German lawmakers set to rally behind the incorrigible FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble in what amounts to a mutiny on the SS Merkel, Europe appears to have finally had enough because by Thursday evening, reports indicated that EU officials have given Greece 24 hours to come back with a proposal that includes pension reform and VAT increases.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Greek “White Knight” Emerges: Putin To Give Athens €5 Billion For Advance Gas Pipeline Fees
The Greek “White Knight” Emerges: Putin To Give Athens €5 Billion For Advance Gas Pipeline Fees
With Greece teetering on the edge of insolvency and forced to raid pension and most other public funds, ahead of another month of heavy IMF repayments which has prompted even the ECB to speculate Greece should introduce a parallel “IOU” currency, a white knight has appeared out of nowhere for Greece, one who may offer $5 billion in urgently needed cash. The white knight is none other than Vladimir Putin. “Just because Greece is debt-ridden, this does not mean it is bound hand
and foot, and has no independent foreign policy,” Putin said previously.
According to Spiegel, citing a senior figure in the ruling Syriza party, Greece is poised to sign a gas deal with Russia as early as Tuesday which could bring up to €5 billion into the depleted Greek coffers.
The move could now “turn the tide” for the debt-stricken country according to a senior Greek official.
As Reuters adds, during a visit to Moscow earlier this month, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras expressed interest in participating in a pipeline that would bring Russian gas to Europe via Turkey and Greece.
Under the proposed deal, Greece would receive advance funds from Russia based on expected future profits linked to the pipeline. The Greek energy minister said last week that Athens would repay Moscow after 2019, when the pipeline is expected to start operating.Greek government officials were not immediately available to comment on the Spiegel report.
Of course, this being Greece, the probability of actual repayment is negligible: after all the likelihood of a Greek default is astronomical, and €5 billion will do little to change the mechanics of Greek debt sustainability. And Putin very well knows this.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
SPIEGEL Interview with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras: ‘We Don’t Want to Go on Borrowing Forever’
SPIEGEL Interview with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras: ‘We Don’t Want to Go on Borrowing Forever’
Alex Tsipras seems almost inconspicuous as he stands in his enormous office in Athens’ Maximos Mansion, and very relaxed. Greece’s new, 43-year-old leftist prime minister, a thorn in the side of German leaders in Berlin, has a soft handshake. On the conference table is a pad of paper bearing the government coat of arms along with neatly written notes in preparation for our interview.
Tsipras wants to explain himself and the policies of his government, he says, adding that he hopes to answer questions openly and honestly so that people in Germany understand him better. Now, he says, is the ideal time for such a discussion, coming as it does after the negotiations with Brussels and shortly before Athens intends to present its new reform plans to European Union finance ministers on Monday.
The prime minister has given us an hour for the interview. He speaks Greek as he explains his plans in a deep, yet quiet voice, even laughing occasionally while leaning back comfortably. His self-confidence does not come across as arrogant, seeming instead to be rooted in his firm conviction that his position is the right one. He knows, he says, that life is full of compromises and that compromises are also vital for his country’s cooperation with the European Union. “We must leave disaster of all kinds behind us,” Tsipras says. “That, too, is why I wanted to speak with you.”
SPIEGEL: Mr. Prime Minister, most of your European partners are indignant. They accuse you of saying one thing in Brussels and then saying something completely different back home in Athens. Do you understand where such accusations come from?
Tsipras: We say the same things in Germany as we do in Greece. But sometimes, problems can be viewed differently, depending on the perspective. (He points to his water glass.) This glass here can be described as being half full or half empty. The reality is that it is a glass filled half-way with water.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece Begins The Great Pivot Toward Russia
Greece Begins The Great Pivot Toward Russia
Ten days ago, before the smashing success of Greece’s anti-austerity party, Syriza, we noted that Russia gave Greece a modest proposal: turn your back on Europe, whom you despise so much anyway, and we will assist your farmers by lifting the food import ban.
And, sure enough, Greece’s new premier Tsipras did hint with his initial actions that Greece may indeed pivot quite aggressively away from Europe and toward Russia in general and the Eurasian Economic Union in particular (as a tangent recall “Russia’s “Startling” Proposal To Europe: Dump The US, Join The Eurasian Economic Union“).
Today we got further evidence that Tsipras will substantially realign his country’s national interest away from the west and toward… the east.
First, as Reuters reported, today the new premier halted the “blue light special” liquidation of Greece to those highest bidders who have the closest access to various printing presses and stopped the privatization of Greece’s biggest port on Tuesday, “signaling he aims to stick to election pledges despite warning shots from the euro zone and financial markets.”
One of the first decisions announced by the new government was stopping the planned sale of a 67 percent stake in the Piraeus Port Authority, agreed under its international bailout deal for which China’s Cosco Group and four other suitors had been shortlisted.“The Cosco deal will be reviewed to the benefit of the Greek people,” Thodoris Dritsas, the deputy minister in charge of the shipping portfolio, told Reuters.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Syriza Leads In 6 Polls; Leader Tsipras Shuns Merkel, Says “Won’t Honor Commitments”
Syriza Leads In 6 Polls; Leader Tsipras Shuns Merkel, Says “Won’t Honor Commitments”
With the leads in at least six polls (of between 4% and 10%), Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has come out swining for the anti-EU vote this morning:
- *TSIPRAS SAYS ONLY SYRIZA CAN END GREECE’S CATASTROPHIC COURSE
- *TSIPRAS SAYS WON’T HONOR COMMITMENTS MADE BY PREVIOUS GOVT
- *TSIPRAS SAYS WILL NEGOTIATE WITH EUROPEAN PEERS NOT WITH MERKEL
For now Greek assets remain bid on the glorious awesomeness of Draghi but we suspect – though The ECB gave themn room to negotiate and Djisselblom mentioned the possibility of ‘working’ with Greece – that if things go as the polls suggest Monday could see more bloodletting in EURUSD (and bank runs in Greece).
As Bloomberg reports, Tsipras had a lot more to say…
Greeks called on Jan. 25 to decide whether to continue with the tragedy of catastrophic austerity or whether to return to growth, democracyMany Greeks turning to Syriza not because of ideology but out of need
Tax burden needs to be eased for middle class, Syriza would abolish property tax, introduce levy for large real estate holdings
ECB QE decision was “historic”, pleased by turn away from austerity to measures aimed at boosting growth
Syriza knows obligation arising from membership in European institutions, austerity wasn’t part of EU’s founding treaty
Syriza doesn’t recognize commitments made by previous govt that will bind new administration
As Keep Talking Greece blog reports, 2 days before the election, Syriza leads in six polls:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…