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Iran FM: “Suspicious Doesn’t Begin To Describe” Attack On Japanese Tanker During Abe’s State Visit

Iran FM: “Suspicious Doesn’t Begin To Describe” Attack On Japanese Tanker During Abe’s State Visit

With the words “Gulf of Tonkin” trending on Twitter this morning at a moment that a senior American defense official told CBS News that “it’s highly likely Iran caused these attacks,” it appears the general public is not even close to buying the claim that Iran attacked two tankers near the strategic Straits of Hormuz this morning. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Javid Zarif pointed out a crucial obvious factor not likely to make it across the US mainstream airwaves or headlines: 

“Suspicious doesn’t begin to describe what likely transpired this morning,” he said. 

This especially crucial — according to his comments — given that one of the vessels is a Japanese tanker supposedly “attacked” by Iran in the middle of a visit to Tehran by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Japan’s Trade Ministry later confirmed that one of the ships hit Thursday morning was carrying “Japan-related cargo.”Via The Japan News/The Yomiuri Shimbun: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attends a joint press conference with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani following their summit meeting in Tehran on Wednesday.

The details of the Japanese tanker are described by the AP as follows:

The Japanese operator of a tanker that was damaged in a suspected attack in the Strait of Hormuz says all of its crewmembers are now safe onboard a U.S. Navy warship.

The chemical tanker Kokuka Courageous, operated by Kokuka Sangyo Co., was apparently attacked as it was passing through the Strait of Hormuz toward Singapore and Thailand destinations to deliver methanol.

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2 Tankers Damaged After Torpedo Attack Near Strait Of Hormuz; Oil Soars

2 Tankers Damaged After Torpedo Attack Near Strait Of Hormuz; Oil Soars

Update 3: Managers at the companies that own the tankers have weighed in on Thursday’s attacks. The manager of the Kokuka Courageous described the incident as a “hostile attack,” and DHT Holdings and Heidmar, the owners of the two tankers, have suspended new bookings to the Gulf.

* * *

Update 2: It appears earlier reports that the Front Altair had sunk were, in fact, incorrect. The ship’s captain has said that it is still afloat. VHF radio traffic confirmed that it is damaged but still afloat.

Hours have passed since the suspected attacks, and still nobody has claimed responsibility. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has noted how suspicious it is that a Japanese owned vessel would be attacked while Iranian leaders were meeting with the Japanese prime minister in Tehran.

Reported attacks on Japan-related tankers occurred while PM @AbeShinzo was meeting with Ayatollah @khamenei_ir for extensive and friendly talks.

Suspicious doesn’t begin to describe what likely transpired this morning.

Iran’s proposed Regional Dialogue Forum is imperative.

And as one BBG analyst pointed out: “Fingers will certainly be pointed at Iran as the mastermind behind these events. But the potential benefits to the Persian Gulf nation are outweighed by the risks. And even if Tehran isn’t responsible, it will still suffer the consequences.”

Several American warships were nearby when the attack unfolded, per radio traffic, which also showed some signs of tensions with Iranian vessels: “American warship identifying itself as ‘Coalition Warship’ stating they have multiple vessels and aircraft in the vicinity. Iranian Navy calling vessels asking their intention in the area.”

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Saudi King Urges Global Coalition To “Use All Means To Stop Iran” At Emergency Summit

Saudi King Urges Global Coalition To “Use All Means To Stop Iran” At Emergency Summit

Perhaps sensing that the US “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran is fast deflating, with even ultra-Hawk John Bolton late this week saying American military build-up had successfully “deterred” imminent Iran threats – suggesting the crisis has been averted – the Saudis are now going on the offensiveImage source: AP via Al Jazeera

Saudi Arabia’s aging King Salman went on an anti-Iran tirade during an emergency meeting of Arab leaders hosted in Mecca on Thursday, saying the Shia country is the greatest threat to global security for the past four decades. He also echoed past US and Israeli charges that Tehran is currently developing nuclear and ballistic missiles in order to threaten its neighbors and extend its influence over the region. 

He said Iran’s leaders were “harboring global and regional terrorist entities and threatening international waterways.” He called for “using all means to stop the Iranian regime” from its regional “interference”. Iran for its part rejected these as “baseless accusations” and has denied it had any role in a spate of recent “sabotage” attacks in the Gulf region. 

The king further condemned Iran’s tactics to disrupt maritime trade and global oil supplies in “glaring violation of UN treaties” following Riyadh’s blaming Iranian operatives for using underwater mines to attack and “sabotage” four tankers near the Strait of Hormuz weeks ago, two of which were Saudi flagged. 

The Iranian regime has been interfering in other countries’ affairs, developing their nuclear programs and threatening international navigation,” King Salman said during his speech, according to a translation by Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya.

Bolton Says “No Doubt” Iranian Naval Mines Used In UAE Tankers Sabotage

Bolton Says “No Doubt” Iranian Naval Mines Used In UAE Tankers Sabotage

Addressing a press conference in Dubai on Wednesday US National Security Advisor John Bolton said Iranian underwater mines were “likely” used in an attack on four international oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz a week-and-a-half ago, including two Saudi vessels, but still didn’t present evidence nor show the precise nature of the damage.

“Iran probably used Iranian naval mines for the UAE oil tankers attacks,” he said while in Abu Dhabi set to attend an emergency summit of gulf leaders to consider the implications of both the May 12 tanker “sabotage” incident near Fujairah emirate and the drone strikes two days following on a Saudi Aramco pipeline and oil pumping station. 

Two Saudi oil tankers were among four commercial vessels previously sabotaged in waters off the UAE, via Reuters.

Bolton further said there was “no doubt” that Iran ordered the series of aggressive acts, also echoing prior Pentagon statements. “I think it is clear these (tanker attacks) were naval mines almost certainly from Iran,” Bolton said. “There is no doubt in anybody’s mind in Washington who is responsible for this and I think it’s important that the leadership in Iran know that we know.”

The assessment is consistent with what a Norwegian insurance investigators’ preliminary findings into the incident alleged based on analyzing shrapnel from the attacks which was reportedly “similar” to shrapnel recovered from surface drones used off Yemen by Iran-backed Houthi militia. That preliminary report, released within the week after the incident, said it was was “highly likely” the work of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) deploying underwater attack drones. 

Not only does the US now have a carrier strike group and B-52 bombers on high alert in the Persian Gulf region, but the White House last week signed off on deployment of 1,500 additional troops in response to the heightened Iran threat. 

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Two More US Warships Travel To Persian Gulf As Tensions With Iran Escalate

Two More US Warships Travel To Persian Gulf As Tensions With Iran Escalate

In the latest provocation against Tehran by the US, two Navy destroyers have entered the Persian Gulf as the American military continues to add to its assets in the region to head off any planned ‘aggression’, USNI reports.

The USS McFaul and USS Gonzalez traveled through the Strait of Hormuz Thursday afternoon without being challenged by IRGC forces in the are. They join the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is stationed in the Gulf of Oman, as well as a strike force that includes several B-52 bombers, as the US continues to build up its military presence in the region. Another Aircraft Carrier, the USS Kearsarge, is anchored off the coast of the UAE. 

Destroyer

According to USNI, if the US wanted to attack Iran from the water, its ships would be better off outside of the Persian Gulf, where it would be more difficult for Iranian missiles to reach them, and where they would be outside of Iran’s “domain awareness.”

The move comes after the US government has continued to warn about heightened threats from Iran. These fears have already prompted the evacuation of non-essential embassy personnel from the Baghdad embassy and the Erbil consulate.

Secret satellite photos of Iranian missiles on a small boat in the Gulf have helped ratchet up tensions, and the US has threatened to attack Iran if the regime starts stockpiling enriched uranium and heavy water again, as it has warned it would abandon the Iran deal if its European partners don’t make good on promises to buy Iranian oil and other financial considerations. CENTCOM has maintained that Iran is a ‘growing threat’ in the region.

An investigation into the source of attacks on two Saudi tankers that Iran is suspected of having orchestrated.

Iran Warns False Flag “Accident” Could “Lure” Trump Into War

Iran Warns False Flag “Accident” Could “Lure” Trump Into War

Following US declarations that Washington and its allies intend to take Iranian crude exports down to “zero” by cancelling waivers previously granted to eight nations, tensions are now soaring over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) attempting to lay down the law amid fears the US Navy could move to block Iran’s access, given the IRGC’s new terror designation. 

On Wednesday Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said if the US intends to pass through the Persian Gulf’s vital choke point — the waterway’s narrowest strait routinely patrolled by Iran’s military — it must dialogue with those who defend it”Sharif’s wordswere essentially a provocative declaration that the US military must ask Tehran’s “permission” to enter the strait. However, he elsewhere explained that he doesn’t believe that President Trump wants war with Iran, but that he could be “lured into one” by his more hawkish advisers. Image via Mehr News Agency

Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday warned the United States of unspecified “consequences” if it tried to seal off to Tehran the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage into the oil-rich Gulf. — Channel News Asia

“I don’t think he wants war,” Zarif said in an interview at the Iranian mission to the UN in New York, according to Reuters“But that doesn’t exclude him being basically lured into one.”

“Those who have designed the policies that are being pursued do not simply want a negotiated solution. But let me make it clear that Iran is not seeking confrontation, but will not escape defending itself,” Zarif said further.

The Iranian foreign minister also interestingly suggested the possibility that American operatives or their allies could try “to plot an accident” to create a broader crisis, in perhaps a continued cryptic reference to tensions in the Persian Gulf over the Strait of Hormuz.

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PEPE ESCOBAR: War on Iran & Calling America’s Bluff

PEPE ESCOBAR: War on Iran & Calling America’s Bluff

Vast swathes of the West seem not to realize that if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down a global depression will follow, writes Pepe Escobar.

. . . . .

The Trump administration once again has graphically demonstrated that in the young, turbulent 21st century, “international law” and “national sovereignty” already belong to the Realm of the Walking Dead.

As if a deluge of sanctions against a great deal of the planet was not enough, the latest “offer you can’t refuse” conveyed by a gangster posing as diplomat, Consul Minimus Mike Pompeo, now essentially orders the whole planet to submit to the one and only arbiter of world trade: Washington.

First the Trump administration unilaterally smashed a multinational, UN-endorsed agreement, the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal. Now the waivers that magnanimously allowed eight nations to import oil from Iran without incurring imperial wrath in the form of sanctions will expire on May 2 and won’t be renewed.

View image on Twitter

View image on Twitter

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran deal upheld his highest obligation: to protect the safety and security of the American people. Why Iran sanctions are necessary: http://45.wh.gov/SUUPiW

The eight nations are a mix of Eurasian powers: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece.

Apart from the trademark toxic cocktail of hubris, illegality, arrogance/ignorance and geopolitical/geoeconomic infantilism inbuilt in this foreign policy decision, the notion that Washington can decide who’s allowed to be an energy provider to emerging superpower China does not even qualify as laughable. Much more alarming is the fact that imposing a total embargo of Iranian oil exports is no less than an act of war.

Ultimate Neocon Wet Dream 

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Iran Again Threatens To Block Key Oil Transit Choke Point As U.S. Aircraft Carrier En Route

Here we go again: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has once more threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital to up to one-third of all global oil shipping as it’s a key transit choke point in the Persian Gulf.

On Tuesday Iranian state broadcasts carried his words, saying “if someday, the United States decides to block Iran’s oil (exports), no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf.” He further vowed that the United States will not be able to prevent Iran from exporting its crude — something the White House has repeatedly pledged to take down to zero exports through international allies and economic blockade through sanctions.

A prior Iranian Navy drill off the Strait of Hormuz, RFE/RL

The carrier deployment, though previously scheduled, was announced after the US condemned Iran’s test firing a medium-range nuclear capable ballistic missile on Sunday.

“The United States should know that we are selling oil and we will sell our oil and it cannot block Iran’s oil export,” he said on Tuesday addressing the people of Shahroud in Semnan province broadcast live on state TV.

The United States and the Israeli regime cannot stand the idea of a powerful and dignified Iran, and the Iranian nation will not bow to them, Rouhani highlighted, adding, “the United States failed in launching a coup in our country. They were after separating Khuzestan province, imposing sanctions against the country, and undermining Iran’s power, but they failed. It should be studied why the US is angry with Iran and Iranians.” MEHR News Agency

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Iran’s Powerful Hardline Cleric Threatens To “Instantly” Create $400 Oil By Seizing Tankers

Just ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran set to snap back on Monday targeting primarily the energy, shipbuilding, shipping, and banking sectors, Iran’s most prominent conservative cleric has announced that if oil exports are halted, Saudi tankers will be confiscated and Gulf countries attacked.

Powerful Shia cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda is the Friday Prayer leader in Mashhad, considered Iran’s spiritual capital and among the holiest places in Shia Islam, and sits on the government’s “Assembly of Experts” but has no formal government role or decision-making ability. However, he’s a powerful leader and chief spiritual force behind Iran’s conservative faction who has long been at odds with President Hassan Rouhani.

Iranian opposition sources report that Alamolhoda told his followers during his Friday prayer sermon:

If we reach a point that our oil is not exported, the Strait of Hormuz will be mined. Saudi oil tankers will be seized and regional countries will be leveled with Iranian missiles.

Prominent hardline cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda

The cleric is further reported to have declared that Iran has the power to “instantly” create conditions for $400 a barrel oil prices if it decides to act in the Persian Gulf.

He said as reported in regional opposition media:

If Iran decides, a single drop of this region’s oil will not be exported and in 90 minutes all Persian Gulf countries will be destroyed. The UAE and Saudi Arabia will be destroyed in 60 minutes. After 90 minutes the U.S. will have nothing in this country. And we haven’t even started with Israel. Beware of the day we go after Israel, too. That’s why they want us to round up our missiles.

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Iran Starts Air Force Drills Near The World’s Crucial Oil Chokepoint

Iran Starts Air Force Drills Near The World’s Crucial Oil Chokepoint

Iran Airforce

Iran’s Air Force and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps began on Friday fighter jet drills over the waters near the world’s most important oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s IRNA news agency reported on Friday.

Aircraft including nine F-4, six Sukhoi, and four Mirage started the war games in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman waters, IRNA said.

The maneuver is a warning that Iran’s enemies will face a “stern response” if they show ill-will toward Tehran, the AP quoted the official Iranian news agency as saying.

Earlier this year, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz for all tanker traffic if the U.S. drives Iranian oil exports to zero.

As the first round of U.S. sanctions on Iran kicked in last month and the second round of sanctions—including on Iranian oil exports—is set to snap back in early November, the Islamic Republic has recently stepped up rhetoric about controlling the most vital oil flow chokepoint in the world.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rebuffed Iran’s claims saying in a statement posted on Twitter: “The Islamic Republic of Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important chokepoint, with an oil flow of 18.5 million bpd in 2016, the EIA estimates. The Strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and is the key route through which Persian Gulf exporters—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain—ship their oil. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that can ship crude oil outside of the Persian Gulf with additional pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which is a route of more than 30 percent of the daily global seaborne-traded crude oil and petroleum products and more than 30 percent of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows.

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Israel Warns It Could Attack Iranian Military Assets In Iraq

In response to what could soon be a big headache for Israeli PM Netanyahu and US “military advisors” to Baghdad, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman indicated on Monday that it could launch air strikes on suspected Iranian military assets in Iraq, as it has widely done in war-torn Syria, Reuters said.

Last week we reported that according to Reuters, Iran had transferred short-range ballistic missiles to allies in Iraq over the last several months. This revelation comes as tensions between Washington and Tehran are at their highest point in years as aggressive sanctions continue crippling Iran’s economy, and after threats and counter-threats over Tehran laying claim to the vital Strait of Hormuz oil waterway over the past weeks, through which one-third of the world’s oil passes.

Israel views Iran’s regional expansion as dangerous for its well-being, and has frequently launched air strikes in Syria to thwart any Iranian forces defending Damascus in the war.

“We are certainly monitoring everything that is happening in Syria and, regarding Iranian threats, we are not limiting ourselves just to Syrian territory. This also needs to be clear,” Lieberman told reporters Monday.

Explicitly asked if this included new operations in Iraq, Lieberman answered: “I’m saying we will handle any Iranian threat, no matter where it comes from. We are maintaining the right to act… and any threat or anything else that comes up is dealt with.”

Reuters said there was no response from the government of Iraq – which is technically at war with Israel – nor from the Pentagon, which oversees US military operations in the country.

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Iranian Navy Holds Drills In Persian Gulf After Threats To Block Strait Of Hormuz

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on Sunday confirmed rumors that they moved up the timing of a large naval drill in the Persian Gulf several days ahead of the Islamic Republic’s planned annual exercises, according to Reuters. State news agency IRNA said the war games were aimed at “confronting possible threats” from enemies.

“This exercise was conducted with the aim of controlling and safeguarding the safety of the international waterway and within the framework of the program of the Guards’ annual military exercises,” Guards spokesman Ramezan Sharif said, according to IRNA.

The U.S. military’s Central Command on Wednesday confirmed it has seen increased Iranian naval activity. The activity extended to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for oil shipments the Revolutionary Guards have threatened to block. –Reuters

While Iran didn’t comment on the size of the drill, Haaretz reported on Friday that “more than 100 vessels” would participate, citing a U.S. official.

The U.S. military’s Central Command on Wednesday confirmed it has seen an increase in Iranian naval activity, including in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for oil shipments that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have threatened to block.

We are monitoring it closely, and will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and free flow of commerce in international waterways,” said Navy Captain Bill Urban, the chief spokesman at Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East. Central Command did not update its guidance on Thursday.

A third official said the Iranian naval operations did not appear to be affecting commercial maritime activity. –Haaretz

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The Most Important Waterway In The Oil World

The Most Important Waterway In The Oil World

hormuz

Tensions between the United States and Iran continue to rise, with U.S. President Donald S. Trump issuing a threatening tweet against Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani amidst preparations to re-impose sanctions on Iran’s economy following the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.

The increasingly tense situation has given rise to fears of violence, perhaps even open warfare in the Persian Gulf, where one-third of the world’s oil is produced.

A key element of Iran’s strategy in such a conflict would be to close the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which most of the Gulf’s oil flows. Iranian officials have made several threats in this direction, in response to the escalating tensions with the U.S.

Iranian leaders frequently threaten to close the Strait, and commentators have warned that such an action is a real possibility. Iran’s military and conservative leadership, the most hardline members of its government, have rallied around President Rouhani’s threat.

Iran possesses the means to close the strait militarily, and keep it closed for several months, using a fleet of small craft, ballistic missiles and large numbers of ocean mines that would make the strait impassable.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices skyrocketing upwards. It would affect the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All three are major producers of oil and gas and depend on an open strait to access global markets.

But is Iran’s leadership really prepared to take such action? Despite the war of words erupting between Tehran and Washington, it is unlikely Iran’s government is prepared to take such a drastic step now or in the immediate future, even as President Trump appears to threaten Iran with military action. There are several reasons for this.

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Are Oil Markets Underestimating Iran’s Threats?

Are Oil Markets Underestimating Iran’s Threats?

Oil

Iranian officials have suggested that they could shut the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. moved to completely disrupt Iranian oil exports, a dire scenario that would present a supply shock to the oil market.

The prospect of an outage at the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly crops up when tensions between the U.S. and Iran deteriorate, but most analysts dismiss the idea as fanciful.

But the scenario may not be as outlandish as is commonly thought. Bob McNally, founder and president of energy consultancy The Rapidan Group, said that the U.S. is waging economic war against Iran and when a country is backed into a corner like that, “there has to be some risk that the country will lash out, even if it’s against a bigger power.”

“I think the market’s a little complacent,” he told CNBC, referring to the lack of movement in oil prices following the exchange of threats between Rouhani and Donald Trump. He said that Iran has much less leverage compared to 2012 when it was enriching uranium and oil prices were much higher. With oil prices much lower, Iran’s leverage is weaker, which could lead it to take drastic measures, such as shutting the Strait of Hormuz. It’s a “credible threat,” McNally said.

Obviously, that would send oil prices skyrocketing. “When you talk about Iran’s exports, that’s about 2.5 million barrels per day, but if you talk about interrupting the Strait of Hormuz, that’s 19 million barrels a day,” he said. “About 30 percent of…seaborne-traded oil goes through that strait. So that’s a much bigger problem.”

The real pain would depend on the length of the outage. Most analysts argue that the U.S. Navy would beat back Iranian attempts to close the Strait and would manage to reopen the shipping lane in a matter of days.

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How Bad Is Iran’s Oil Situation?

How Bad Is Iran’s Oil Situation?

Oil

The U.S. government has continued its attempts to shut down Iran’s oil exports, and in recent days Iranian officials responded by threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. Such an outcome is highly unlikely, but the war of words demonstrates how quickly the confrontation is escalating.

Oil prices spiked in late June when a U.S. State Department official said that countries would be expected to cut their imports of oil from Iran down to “zero.” The official also suggested that it would be unlikely that the Trump administration would grant any waivers.

This hard line stance fueled a rally in oil prices as the oil market was quickly forced to recalibrate expected losses from Iran, with a general consensus changing from a loss of around 500,000 bpd by the end of the year, to something more like 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), or even as high as 2.0 to 2.5 mb/d in a worst-case scenario in which all countries comply.

A loss of that magnitude would be hard to offset, even if Saudi Arabia decides to burn throughall of its spare capacity.

That led to a dialing back of the rhetoric from the Trump administration, or so it seemed. A follow-up statement from the State Department suggested that the U.S. government would work with countries on a “case-by-case basis” to lower Iranian oil imports. High oil prices seemed to put pressure on Washington.

But for now, there is no policy shift. “I think there’s going to be very few waivers. That’s what we’re hearing all the time from officials across the administration. I think it’s a very strong policy decision,” Brenda Shaffer, an adjunct professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, told Oilprice.com.

Time will tell, but early evidence suggests that the Trump administration is having success convincing top buyers of Iranian crude to curtail their purchases.

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