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Tag Archives: quantitative tightening
Leveraged Loan Demand Is Off The Charts As Dangers Mount
Leveraged Loan Demand Is Off The Charts As Dangers Mount Ten years after the crisis, demands for leveraged loan offerings is once again off the charts. Portfolio managers who are seeking rising yields as the Federal Reserve hikes rates have shown unprecedented demand for recent deals, despite repeated warnings that they may be buying “at the wrong […]
BCA: The “Bubble In Everything” Threatens $400 Trillion In Assets
BCA: The “Bubble In Everything” Threatens $400 Trillion In Assets By now, it’s a very familiar question: how high can the Fed hike rates before it causes a major market “event.” Two weeks ago, Stifel analyst Barry Banister became the latest to issue a timeline on how many more rate hikes the Fed can push […]
The Fed’s QE Unwind Hits $250 Billion
The Fed’s QE Unwind Hits $250 Billion Here’s my math when this “balance sheet normalization” will end. In August, the Federal Reserve was supposed to shed up to $24 billion in Treasury securities and up to $16 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), for a total of $40 billion, according to its QE-unwind plan – […]
Emerging Market Contagion Threatens Oil Market
Emerging Market Contagion Threatens Oil Market The emerging market currency crisis is not over yet, and could yet morph into a broader contagion that threatens to drag down oil demand. Last week, Argentina’s peso fell by around 20 percent in just a few days, taking year-to-date losses over 50 percent. The central bank frantically hiked […]
The Anatomy of a Crisis: A Strong Dollar and Disappearing Liquidity
The Anatomy of a Crisis: A Strong Dollar and Disappearing Liquidity Since March – the dollar’s rallied over 7%. And it’s caused the Emerging Markets to implode. But the bigger problem is what lies ahead. And that’s a global dollar shortage – which the mainstream continues to ignore. . . I’ve touched on this a […]
The Fed Accelerates its QE Unwind
The Fed Accelerates its QE Unwind Mopping up liquidity. The Fed’s QE Unwind – “balance sheet normalization,” as it calls this – is accelerating toward cruising speed. The first 12 months of the QE unwind, which started in October 2017, are the ramp-up period – just like there was the “Taper” during the final 12 […]
Kass: Tops Are Processes & We May Be In That Process
Kass: Tops Are Processes & We May Be In That Process The Yield Curve Will Likely Invert by November, 2018 Economic growth is less synchronized than the consensus believes On a trending and rate of change basis the economic data is slowing down The Fed’s continued pivot to tighter money will likely lead to curve […]
“It Was Only A Matter of Time”: Trump Sets His Sights on the Fed’s Tightening and the Strong Dollar
“It Was Only A Matter of Time”: Trump Sets His Sights on the Fed’s Tightening and the Strong Dollar Who says that the President doesn’t – and shouldn’t – pay attention to the U.S. Dollar’s value? Well – President Trump sure does. . . Just look at his tweets from this morning. . . This […]
Is Trump Starting To Lean On The Fed Or Setting It Up?
Is Trump Starting To Lean On The Fed Or Setting It Up? President Trump said in an interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernan this morning he “does not agree”, is not “thrilled” or “happy” with the FOMC’s interest rate hikes. The full interview and transcripts will be available tomorrow. Click here for excerpt of interview You Heard […]
Five Pillars of Debt Default
Five Pillars of Debt Default Regular readers of Gold Goats ‘n Guns know that I’ve been handicapping a major sovereign debt default to begin here in 2018 or early 2019. But, what do I mean by that? How does a sovereign debt default come about? And who will default? There are a staggering number of factors […]
Update on the Fed’s QE Unwind
Update on the Fed’s QE Unwind With QE, the Fed created money to buy securities and pump up asset prices; now it sheds securities to destroy this money. Here’s what the Fed’s QE unwind – or the balance sheet normalization, as it calls it – is all about: it reverses over an unknown span of […]
India Central Bank Intervenes As Rupee Crashes To Record Low
India Central Bank Intervenes As Rupee Crashes To Record Low Just weeks after Urjit Patel, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, wrote an op-ed in the FT warning that should the US maintain its current pace of monetary policy tightening, it could have serious repercussions for the global economy, it is… It was the […]
Next Central Bank Puts QE Unwind on the Calendar
Next Central Bank Puts QE Unwind on the Calendar The end of an era spreads. Markets were surprised today when the Bank of England took a “hawkish” turn and announced that three out of nine members of its Monetary Policy Committee – including influential Chief Economist Andrew Haldane, who’d been considered dovish – voted to […]
“Dollar Is King”: Indonesia Joins India In Begging Fed To Stop Shrinking Its Balance Sheet
“Dollar Is King”: Indonesia Joins India In Begging Fed To Stop Shrinking Its Balance Sheet It’s getting a little tight around the neck for emerging market central bankers. On the same day that the governor of Malaysia’s central bank quit, and just days after Urjit Patel, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, took the […]
‘Something’s Wrong’: The Fed’s Creating Risks – But The Markets Ignoring It
‘Something’s Wrong’: The Fed’s Creating Risks – But The Markets Ignoring It The other day I published an article calling out the markets denial of rising risks. Even with everything that’s happening in Italy and with the Emerging Markets blowing up – expected volatility has actually decreased. . . Basically, the stock markets pricing everything […]
